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Elementary Probability

This document provides an overview of key concepts in probability. It defines probability as a measure from 0 to 1 of the likelihood of an event occurring. There are three approaches to assigning probabilities: classical, which assumes all outcomes are equally likely; empirical, which is based on experimental data; and subjective, based on individual judgment. Key terms are also defined, including experiment, outcome, event, and notation for probabilities. Examples are given to illustrate classical, empirical, and subjective probabilities. The document concludes with guidance on expressing probabilities as fractions or rounding decimals.

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TAWHID ARMAN
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
49 views

Elementary Probability

This document provides an overview of key concepts in probability. It defines probability as a measure from 0 to 1 of the likelihood of an event occurring. There are three approaches to assigning probabilities: classical, which assumes all outcomes are equally likely; empirical, which is based on experimental data; and subjective, based on individual judgment. Key terms are also defined, including experiment, outcome, event, and notation for probabilities. Examples are given to illustrate classical, empirical, and subjective probabilities. The document concludes with guidance on expressing probabilities as fractions or rounding decimals.

Uploaded by

TAWHID ARMAN
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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WELCOM

To my lecture

E
By Shanjida Chowdhury
Chapter Goals
 Define probability.
 Describe the classical, empirical, and subjective
approaches to probability.
 Explain the terms experiment, event, outcome,
permutations, and combinations.
 Define the terms conditional probability and joint
probability.
 Calculate probabilities using the rules of addition and
rules of multiplication.
 Apply a tree diagram to organize and compute
probabilities.
 Calculate a probability using Bayes’ theorem.
1 2 3

Contents
about
Approaches to
assigning
Basic of Basic
probability
probability terminology:
Experiment,
event, outcome
What’s the probability?
Definitions
A probability is a measure of the likelihood
that an event in the future will happen. It can
only assume a value between 0 and 1.

 A value near zero means the event is not


likely to happen. A value near one means it
is likely.

 Probability is the study of randomness and


uncertainty.

 In the early days, probability was associated


with games of chance (gambling). 3
How do we describe
probability?
• You can describe the probability of an
event with the following terms:
• certain (the event is definitely going to
happen)
• likely (the event will probably happen,
but not definitely)
• unlikely (the event will probably not
happen, but it might)
• Impossible/ uncertain (the event is
definitely not going to happen)
Possible Values for Probabilities
1 Certain

Likely

0.5 50-50 Chance/ Even Chance

Unlikely

0 Impossible
Notation
P - denotes a probability P(A)= p of A=Probability of an
event A

A, B, ... - denote specific events


P (A) - denotes the probability of an event A occurring

P of E= P(E)
Probability
 Definitions
The probability of an event is a number that
measures the relative likelihood that the event will
occur.
The probability of event E [denoted P(E)], must lie
within the interval from 0 to 1:
0 < P(E) < 1

If P(E) = 0, then the If P(E) = 1, then the event


event cannot occur. is certain to occur.(more
(more improbable) probable)
Probability Examples
How do we express probabilities?
Usually, we express • 
probabilities as fractions. P(E)= Probability of an event
• The numerator shows When, P(E) =0, An event that is uncertain to
the POSSIBLE number of happen  (more improbable)
ways an event can occur. P(E) =1, An event that is certain to happen (more
• The denominator is the probable)
TOTAL number of Formula:
possible events that P(E)= = Favorable outcome/ Total outcome= 1/6
could occur. P(1)=1/6
Test problem
Example: Toss a coin 3 times and observe exactly 2 heads?
Experiment:
toss a coin 3 times
Event (A):
observe exactly 2 heads
Sample Space:
HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT
Note there are 3 outcomes favorable to the event and 8 total
outcomes

P(A) = 3 / 8 = 0.375
Definitions continued..
 An experiment is the observation of some activity
or the act of taking some measurement.
 An outcome is the particular result of an
experiment.
 An event is the collection of one or more
outcomes of an experiment.
More example
Example: Roll a die and observe a 4? Find the probability.
What is the experiment? Roll a die
What is the event A? Observe a 4
What is the sample space? 1,2,3,4,5,6
Number of outcomes favorable to A is 1.
Number of total outcomes is 6.
What is P(A)? P(A) = 1 / 6 = 0.167

Similar to #11 on hw
More example….
Assigning Probabilities

Classical Method
Assigning probabilities based on the assumption
of equally likely outcomes

Relative Frequency Method


Assigning probabilities based on experimentation
or historical data

Subjective Method

Assigning probabilities based on judgment


Classical Probability

Consider an experiment of rolling a six-sided die. What is the probability of the event “an even
number of spots appear face up”?
The possible outcomes are:

There are three “favorable” outcomes (a two, a four, and a six) in the collection of six equally likely
possible outcomes.
What is the probability that I will choose a
red marble?
Empirical Probability

The empirical approach to probability is based on what is called the law


of large numbers. The key to establishing probabilities empirically is
that more observations will provide a more accurate estimate of the
probability.
Empirical Probability - Example

• On February 1, 2003, the Space Shuttle Columbia exploded. This was


the second disaster in 113 space missions for NASA. On the basis of
this information, what is the probability that a future mission is
successfully completed?
Number of successful flights
Probabilit y of a successful flight 
Total number of flights
111
  0.98
113
Subjective Probability - Example

 If there is little or no past experience or information on which to base a


probability, it may be arrived at subjectively.

 Individual Knowledge of Situation

 Different Probabilities from Different People

 Illustrations of subjective probability are:

1. Estimating the likelihood the New England Patriots will play in the Super
Bowl next year.
2. Estimating the likelihood you will be married before the age of 30.
3. Estimating the likelihood the U.S. budget deficit will be reduced by half in
the next 10 years.
Summary of Types of Probability
Rounding Off Probabilities
 give the exact fraction or decimal
or
round off the final result to three significant digits

Examples:
• 1/3 is exact and could be left as a fraction or rounded to .333
• 0.00038795 would be rounded to 0.000388
“Practice makes a men perfect”

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