Slide 1

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Chapter 4 Slide 2
Probability Distributions

4-1 Overview
4-2 Random Variables
4-3 Binomial Probability Distributions
4-4 Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation for
the Binomial Distribution
4-5 The Poisson Distribution

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Slide 3

Section 4-1 & 4-2

Overview and Random
Variables
Created by Tom Wegleitner, Centreville, Virginia

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Overview Slide 4

This chapter will deal with the construction of

probability distributions
by combining the methods of descriptive statistics
presented in Chapter 2 and those of probability
presented in Chapter 3.
Probability Distributions will describe what will
probably happen instead of what actually did
happen.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Combining Descriptive Methods
Slide 5
and Probabilities
In this chapter we will construct probability distributions
by presenting possible outcomes along with the relative
frequencies we expect.

Figure 4-1

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Definitions Slide 6

 A random variable is a variable (typically

represented by x) that has a single
numerical value, determined by chance,
for each outcome of a procedure.

 A probability distribution is a graph,

table, or formula that gives the
probability for each value of the
random variable.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Definitions Slide 7

 A discrete random variable has either a finite number of

values or countable number of values, where
“countable” refers to the fact that there might be infinitely
many values, but they result from a counting process.

 A continuous random variable has infinitely

many values, and those values can be
associated with measurements on a
continuous scale in such a way that there are
no gaps or interruptions.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Graphs Slide 8

The probability histogram is very similar to a relative frequency

histogram, but the vertical scale shows probabilities.

Figure 4-3
Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.
 Requirements for Slide 9
Probability Distribution


P(x) = 1
where x assumes all possible values

0  P(x)  1
for every individual value of x

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Mean, Variance and
Slide 10
Standard Deviation of a
Probability Distribution

µ =  [x • P(x)] Mean

 =  [(x – µ) • P(x)]
2 2
Variance

 = [ x • P(x)] – µ
2 2 2
Variance (shortcut)

 =  [x 2 • P(x)] –µ 2 Standard Deviation

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Roundoff Rule for Slide 11

µ,  and 
2

Round results by carrying one more decimal

place than the number of decimal places used
for the random variable x. If the values of x
are integers, round µ, and , and to one 2

decimal place.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Identifying Unusual Results Slide 12
Range Rule of Thumb
According to the range rule of thumb, most
values should lie within 2 standard deviations
of the mean.

We can therefore identify “unusual” values by

determining if they lie outside these limits:
Maximum usual value = μ + 2σ
Minimum usual value = μ – 2σ

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Identifying Unusual Results Slide 13
Probabilities
Rare Event Rule
If, under a given assumption (such as the
assumption that boys and girls are equally likely),
the probability of a particular observed event (such
as 13 girls in 14 births) is extremely small, we
conclude that the assumption is probably not
correct.
 Unusually high: x successes among n trials is an
unusually high number of successes if P(x or
more) is very small (such as 0.05 or less).
 Unusually low: x successes among n trials is an
unusually low number of successes if P(x or
fewer) is very small (such as 0.05 or less).
Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.
 Definition Slide 14

The expected value of a discrete random

variable is denoted by E, and it represents
the average value of the outcomes. It is
obtained by finding the value of  [x • P(x)].

E =  [x • P(x)]

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Recap Slide 15

In this section we have discussed:

 Combining methods of descriptive statistics with
probability.
 Random variables and probability distributions.
 Histograms
 Requirements for a probability distribution.
 Mean, variance and standard deviation of a
probability distribution.
 Identifying unusual results.
 Expected value.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Slide 16

Section 4-3
Binomial Probability
Distributions
Created by Tom Wegleitner, Centreville, Virginia

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Definitions Slide 17

A binomial probability distribution results from a

procedure that meets all the following requirements:

1. The procedure has a fixed number of trials.

2. The trials must be independent. (The outcome of any
individual trial doesn’t affect the probabilities in the
other trials.)
3. Each trial must have all outcomes classified into two
categories.
4. The probabilities must remain constant for each trial.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Notation for Binomial
Slide 18
Probability Distributions

S and F (success and failure) denote two

possible categories of all outcomes; p and q will
denote the probabilities of S and F, respectively,
so

P(S) = p (p = probability of success)

P(F) = 1 – p = q (q = probability of failure)

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Notation (cont)
Slide 19

n denotes the number of fixed trials.

x denotes a specific number of successes in n
trials, so x can be any whole number between
0 and n, inclusive.
p denotes the probability of success in one of
the n trials.
q denotes the probability of failure in one of the
n trials.
P(x) denotes the probability of getting exactly x
successes among the n trials.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Important Hints Slide 20

 Be sure that x and p both refer to the same category

being called a success.

 When sampling without replacement, the events can

be treated as if they were independent if the
sample size is no more than 5% of the population
size. (That is n is less than or equal to 0.05N.)

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Methods for Finding Slide 21
Probabilities

We will now present three methods for finding

the probabilities corresponding to the random
variable x in a binomial distribution.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Method 1: Using the Slide 22
Binomial
Probability Formula
P(x) = n! • px • qn-x
(n – x )!x!

for x = 0, 1, 2, . . ., n
where
n = number of trials
x = number of successes among n trials
p = probability of success in any one trial
q = probability of failure in any one trial (q = 1 – p)

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Method 2: Using Slide 23
Table A-1 in Appendix A

Part of Table A-1 is shown below. With n = 4 and p = 0.2

in the binomial distribution, the probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3,
and 4 successes are 0.410, 0.410, 0.154, 0.026, and 0.002
respectively.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Method 3: Slide 24
Using Technology
STATDISK, Minitab, Excel and the TI-83 Plus calculator
can all be used to find binomial probabilities.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Strategy Slide 25

 Use computer software or a TI-83 calculator if

available.

 If neither software or the TI-83 Plus calculator is

available, use Table A-1, if possible.

 If neither software nor the TI-83 Plus calculator is

available and the probabilities can’t be found
using Table A-1, use the binomial probability
formula.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Rationale for the Binomial Slide 26
Probability Formula

n! n-x
P(x) = (n – x )!x!• p x
• q

Number of
outcomes with
exactly x
successes
among n trials

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Binomial Probability Slide 27

Formula

n! n-x
P(x) = (n – x )!x! • p x
• q

Number of Probability of x
outcomes with successes
exactly x among n trials
successes for any one
among n trials particular order

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Recap Slide 28

In this section we have discussed:

 The definition of the binomial probability
distribution.

 Notation.

 Important hints.

 Three computational methods

 Rationale for the formula.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Slide 29

Section 4-4
Mean, Variance, and Standard
Deviation for the Binomial
Distribution
Created by Tom Wegleitner, Centreville, Virginia

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Any Discrete Probability
Slide 30
Distribution: Formulas

Mean µ = [x • P(x)]

Variance  = [ x • P(x) ] – µ

2 2 2

Std. Dev  = [ x • P(x) ] – µ

2 2

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Binomial Distribution: Slide 31
Formulas
Mean µ =n•p

Variance  = n • p • q 2

Std. Dev. = n•p•q

Where
n = number of fixed trials
p = probability of success in one of the n trials
q = probability of failure in one of the n trials
Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.
 Example Slide 32

Find the mean and standard deviation for the number

of girls in groups of 14 births.

This scenario is a binomial distribution where:

n = 14
p = 0.5
q = 0.5
Using the binomial distribution formulas:

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Example (cont) Slide 33

This scenario is a binomial distribution where

n = 14
p = 0.5
q = 0.5
Using the binomial distribution formulas:
µ = (14)(0.5) = 7 girls
= (14)(0.5)(0.5) = 1.9 girls (rounded)

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Interpretation of Results Slide 34

It is especially important to interpret results. The

range rule of thumb suggests that values are unusual if
they lie outside of these limits:

Maximum usual values = µ + 2 

Minimum usual values = µ – 2 

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Example Slide 35

Determine whether 68 girls among 100 babies

could easily occur by chance.

For this binomial distribution,

µ = 50 girls
 = 5 girls
µ + 2  = 50 + 2(5) = 60
µ - 2  = 50 - 2(5) = 40
The usual number girls among 100 births would be
from 40 to 60. So 68 girls in 100 births is an unusual
result.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Recap Slide 36

In this section we have discussed:

 Mean,variance and standard deviation formulas
for the any discrete probability distribution.
 Mean,variance and standard deviation formulas
for the binomial probability distribution.
 Interpreting results

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Slide 37

Section 4-5
The Poisson Distribution

Created by Tom Wegleitner, Centreville, Virginia

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Definition Slide 38

The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability

distribution that applies to occurrences of some event
over a specified interval. The random variable x is the
number of occurrences of the event in an interval. The
interval can be time, distance, area, volume, or some
similar unit.

Formula

µ x • e -µ
P(x) = x!
where e  2.71828

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Poisson Distribution Slide 39
Requirements
 The random variable x is the number of occurrences of
an event over some interval.
 The occurrences must be random.
 The occurrences must be independent of each other.
 The occurrences must be uniformly distributed over
the interval being used.

Parameters
 The mean is µ.

 The standard deviation is = µ.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.
 Difference from a Slide 40
Binomial Distribution

The Poisson distribution differs from the binomial

distribution in these fundamental ways:
 The binomial distribution is affected by the
sample size n and the probability p, whereas
the Poisson distribution is affected only by
the mean μ.
 In a binomial distribution the possible values of
the random variable are x are 0, 1, . . . n, but a
Poisson distribution has possible x values of
0, 1, . . . , with no upper limit.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Example Slide 41

World War II Bombs In analyzing hits by V-1 buzz bombs

in World War II, South London was subdivided into 576
regions, each with an area of 0.25 km2. A total of 535
bombs hit the combined area of 576 regions

If a region is randomly selected, find the probability

that it was hit exactly twice.

The Poisson distribution applies because we are

dealing with occurrences of an event (bomb hits)
over some interval (a region with area of 0.25 km2).

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Example Slide 42

The mean number of hits per region is

μ number of bomb hits

number of regions

535
576
 0.929


x 
e 0.9292 2.71828 0.929 0.8630.395
P(x )     0.170
x! 2! 2

The probability of a particular region being hit exactly

twice is P(2) = 0.170.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.

 Poisson as Approximation Slide 43
to Binomial
The Poisson distribution is sometimes used
to approximate the binomial distribution
when n is large and p is small.

Rule of Thumb

 n  100

 np  10
Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.
 Poisson as Approximation Slide 44
to Binomial - μ

n  100

 np  10
Value for μ

= n • p
Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.
 Recap Slide 45

In this section we have discussed:

 Definition of the Poisson distribution.

 Requirements for the Poisson distribution.

 Poisson distribution requirements.

 Poisson approximation to the binomial.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education, Inc.