PROBABILITY AND

PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Ruslan Abdul Gani MSAE
 Chapter Topics
 Basic probability concepts
 Sample spaces and events, simple probability,
joint probability
 Permutation and Combinations
 Conditional probability
 Statistical independence, marginal probability
 Probability Distributions

Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-2
 Probability
 Probability is the numerical 1 Certain
measure of the likelihood
that an event will occur
 Value is between 0 and 1
 Sum of the probabilities of .5

all mutually exclusive and

collectively exhaustive events is 1

0 Impossible
Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-3
 Computing Probabilities
The probability of an event E:
number of event outcomes
P( E ) 
total number of possible outcomes in the sample space
X

T e.g. P( ) = 2/36
(There are 2 ways to get one 6 and the other 4)
 Each of the outcomes in the sample space
(there are 6x6=36) is equally likely to occur
Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-4
 Computing Joint Probability
 The probability of a joint event, A and B:
P (A and B ) = P (A  B)
number of outcomes from both A and B

total number of possible outcomes in sample space

E.g. P(Red Card and Ace)

2 Red Aces 1
 
52 Total Number of Cards 26
Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-5
 Computing Compound
Probability
 Probability of a compound event, A or B:
P( A or B)  P ( A  B )
number of outcomes from either A or B or both

total number of outcomes in sample space
E.g. P(Red Card or Ace)
4 Aces + 26 Red Cards - 2 Red Aces

52 total number of cards
28 7
 
52 13
Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-6
 Compound Probability
(Addition Rule)
P(A1 or B1 ) = P(A1) + P(B1) - P(A1 and B1)
Event
Event B1 B2 Total
A1 P(A1 and B1) P(A1 and B2) P(A1)
A2 P(A2 and B1) P(A2 and B2) P(A2)

Total P(B1) P(B2) 1

For Mutually Exclusive Events: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-7
 Computing Conditional
Probability
 The probability of event A given that event B
has occurred:
P ( A and B )
P( A | B) 
P( B)
E.g.
P (Red Card given that it is an Ace)
2 Red Aces 1
 
4 Aces 2
Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-8
 Conditional Probability Using
Contingency Table
Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52

Revised Sample Space

P(Ace and Red) 2 / 52 2
P (Ace | Red)   
P (Red) 26 / 52 26
Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-9
 Permutations
Example: How many 3-digit lock passwords can
we make by using 3 different numbers among 1,
2, 3, 4 and 5?
The order of the choice is
important!
5(4)(3)  60
• n distinct objects, take r objects at a time and
arrange them in order. The number of different
ways you can take and arrange is
n!
P 
r
n

(n  r )!
where n! n(n  1)( n  2)...( 2)(1) and 0! 1.
5! 5(4)(3)( 2)(1)
P  3
5
  60
(5  3)! Copyright ©2006
2(1)Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Example
Example: A lock consists of five parts and
can be assembled in any order. A quality
control engineer wants to test each order for
efficiency of assembly. How many orders are
there?
The order of the choice is
important!

5!
P   5(4)(3)( 2)(1)  120
5
5

0!
Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Example
• How many ways to select a student
committee of 3 members: chair, vice chair,
and secretary out of 8 students?
8!
P 
3
8

The order of the choice is (8  3)!

important! ---- Permutation (8)(7)( 6)(5)( 4)(3)( 2)(1)

5(4)(3)( 2)(1)
 8(7)(6)  336
Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Combinations
• n distinct objects, select r objects at a time without
regard to the order. The number of different ways
you can select is
n!
C  n
r
r!(n  r )!
Example: Three members of a 5-person committee must
be chosen to form a subcommittee. How many different
subcommittees could be formed?
5! 5(4)(3)( 2)1 5(4)
The order of C 
5
3    10
the choice is 3!(5  3)! 3(2)(1)( 2)1 (2)1
not important! Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Example
• How many ways to select a student
committee of 3 members out of 8 students?
• (Don’t assign chair, vice chair and
secretary). 8!
C3 
8

3!(8  3)!
The order of the choice is
NOT important!  8(7)(6)(5)( 4)(3)( 2)(1)

Combination [3(2)(1)][ 5(4)(3)( 2)(1)]
8(7)(6)
  56
3(2)(1)
Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
P(operate) = (1- 0.1^3).(1-0.05^2).(0.99)=0.987

Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole

A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Random Variable

 Random variable
 Outcomes of an experiment expressed
numerically
 e.g.: Toss a die twice; Count the number of
times the number 4 appears (0, 1 or 2
times)

Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-21
 Discrete Random Variable

 Discrete random variable

 Obtained by counting (1, 2, 3, etc.)
 Usually a finite number of
different values
 e.g.: Toss a coin five times;
Count the number of tails
(0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 times)

Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-22
 Discrete Probability
Distribution Example
Event: Toss 2 Coins. Count # Tails.

Probability Distribution
Values Probability
0 1/4 = .25
T
1 2/4 = .50
T 2 1/4 = .25

T T
Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-23
 Discrete Probability Distribution
 List of all possible [Xj , p(Xj) ] pairs
 Xj = value of random variable
 P(Xj) = probability associated with value
 Mutually exclusive (nothing in common)
 Collectively exhaustive (nothing left out)
0  P X j  1  P X  1
j

Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-24
 Summary Measures

Expected value (the mean)

Weighted average of the probability
distribution:

  E  X    X jP X j 
j

Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-25
 Summary Measures
continued

Example of expected value (the mean):

Toss two coins, count the number of tails,
compute expected value

   X jP X j 
j

  0   2.5    1  .5    2   .25   1

Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-26
 Summary Measures
(continued)

Variance
 Weight average squared deviation about
the mean

  E  X        X j    P  X j 
2 2 2

 

Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-27
 Summary Measures
(continued)

Example of variance:
Toss two coins, count number of tails,
compute variance

   X j    P X j 
2 2

  0  1  .25    1  1  .5    2  1  .25   .5
2 2 2

Onur Özsoy, Basic Business Statistics Lefke European University Chap 1-28
Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.