108– Indian Economy

Unit 2. Human Resources and Economic Development

 2. Human Resources and Economic Development : The Theory of
Demographic Transition, Size and Growth Rate of Population in India,
Quantitative Population Growth Differentials in Different Countries, The
Sex Composition of Population, Age Composition of Population, Density
of Population, Urbanization and Economic Growth in India, The Quality
of Population, Population Projections (2001-2026), Demographic
Dividend. Human Development in India - The Concept and Measures of
Human Development, Human development Index for Various States in
India, National Human Development Report, Changing profile of GDP
and employment in India, GDP, Employment and Productivity per Worker
in India, Relative Shift in the Shares of NSDP and Employment in
Agriculture, Industry and Services in Different States. (6)
• In an ordinary sense, human resource refers to the
population of the country but in economics, the healthy,
educated, and skilled manpower is known as human
resource. So, human resource is the process of
improving the quality and efficiency of the people.
• According to the National planning commission, “Human
resource is the knowledge, skill, efficiency and physical
and mental capacity to do work inherent in the people of
the country”.
•
• Role of Human Resource in Economic Development
Human resources play an important role in the overall development
of a country. Capital, natural resources, as well as other productive
resources remain inactive in nature. Human resources are
necessary to mobilize them. Nepal has sufficient natural resources
and utilization of these resources is necessary for economic
development. The role of human resource can be explained with the
help of the following points.
• 1. Utilization of Natural resources:
Human resources are necessary for the utilization of natural
resources like mineral, water, forest, etc. Utilization of these
resources is necessary for economic development. Thus, only
human resources mobilize and utilize them properly.
• 2. Compensate for the deficiency of natural resources:
The utilization of human resource compensates the deficiency
of natural resources. Many countries are poor in natural
resources like Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc. but they are
able to achieve high economic growth by properly utilizing the
human resource.
• 3. Utilization of physical capital:
Only the existence of physical capital can’t do anything for
economic development. They should be properly utilized. To,
operate machinery & equipment and to run factories and
industries is impossible without the involvement of human
resource
• 4. Increase in production:
The human resources of a country help to increase the
production of different goods and services. By using skilled
human resources, a country can produce a variety of goods
and services having high quality.
• 5. Changes in technology:
Human resources of a country can bring new technology.
Advance technology is necessary to bring development in
the country.
• There are other roles of human resources such as the
development of transportation and communication, the
supply of labour, etc.
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding expanding fluctuating
Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease population
in
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)
Death rate

Low
Modernisation/ economic
development
The demographic transition model (DTM) describes how the
population of a country changes over time. It gives changes in
birth and death rates, and shows that countries pass through
five stages of population change.
Stage 1 (high fluctuating)- high birth and death rates that fluctuate. The
population remains stable but low.
Birth rate is high because:
-There is a lack of birth control
-Women also marry young
-Children and need to work in fields to support the family’s income
Death rate is high because:
- disease, war, famine, lack of clean water and medical care
• Stage 2 (early expanding)- high birth rate but falling
death rate. The population increases rapidly.
• Birth rate is high because: (same reasons as in stage 1)
• Death rate falls due to:
- Improved medicine
- Cleaner water and improved sanitation
- More and better food
• Stage 3 (late expanding)- birth rate declines rapidly while
death rate falls slowly. Population growth slows down.
Reasons for falling birth rate include:
- Fewer people are farmers who need children to work
- Birth control is now available
- Number of infant deaths are falling
- Women are staying in education longer and marrying later
• Death rate still falling- for the same reasons as in stage 2
• Stage 4 (low fluctuating)- low birth rate and low death rate,
both fluctuate. Population growth is small but the population
remains high and stable while fertility continues to fall.
• There are significant changes in personal lifestyles. There is
increased access and demand for luxuries like holidays and
material possessions so less money is available for having
children. There are more women in the workforce, with many
people having high personal incomes and more leisure
interests. Also they are not needed to work for the family.
People are now having the number of children they want.
• Stage 5 (natural decrease)- a later period, during which the birth
rate is very low and goes below the death rate
• Reasons for the low birth rate:
• a rise in individualism, linked to emancipation of women in the
labour market
• greater financial independence of women
• concern about the impact of increased population numbers on
resources for future generations
• a rise in the concept of childlessness, as they are expensive to
raise and many people have elderly dependents so have no kids
• Stage 5 (decline)
• Reasons for the low birth rate:
• an increase in non-traditional lifestyles, such as same
sex relationships
• the death rate remains steady or slightly increases as
there are more elderly people (ageing population) so
more people may die of old age despite advances in
health care.
• Major factors affecting world population growth
• Changes to farming method
• If people rely on farming, and there is little technology, they often have large families to
provide extra workers. As technology increases, and countries develop, fewer people
are employed in farming and the need for large families declines.
• Urbanisation
• As farming methods change, and fewer people are needed to work on the land, many
rural people move to urban areas to work. They need fewer children there, so they
have smaller families.
• Education and women
• As society and economy develop, women tend to stay in education longer. This means
they get married and start having children later, and usually have fewer children as a
result. Educated women also know more about birth control, and so can limit their
families more effectively.
A population pyramid is a type of bar graph used to show the age and gender structure of a country, city or
other area based on census data. The horizontal axis is divided into either numbers or percentages of the
population. The central vertical axis shows age categories: every 10 years, every 5 years or every single
year. The lower part of the pyramid is known as the base and shows the younger section of the population.
The upper part, or apex, shows the elderly.

Interpreting population pyramids tells us a great deal about a population, such as birth rates, to a lesser
extent death rates, life expectancy and the level of economic development (or stage in the DTM).
 Pyramid for Ethiopia- Stage 2 Pyramid for UK- Stage 4

The pyramid for Ethiopia displays many of the The pyramid for the UK is taller and the
Characteristic features of a less economically top is more pronounced, showing
developed country, particularly the wide base showing significant numbers above the age of
a population structure dominated by young people, due 65. The UK’s birth rate is low and the
to high birth rates. The graph has an almost perfect narrow base shows this. It is the
pyramid shape, progressively tapering towards a middle-aged groups that are dominant
narrow top, with few people above the age of 65. in pyramids for developed countries.

Population pyramids for developing countries are wider at the base, narrower at the top and
It is customary to subdivide the structure of a country’s
population into three age groups, namely young (0-14),
middle-aged (15-64) and old (65 and above). The middle-
aged are distinguished from the other two as the working or
independent population; they are the group in society that
works, earns money, contributes to pensions and pays
income taxes. Young and old have in common that they are
dependants; although some of them work, the majority
depend upon services such as education and healthcare,
paid for by taxes collected from the working population. The
dependency ratio is the ratio between the dependent and
independent populations.
 Size and Growth Rate of Population in India,
• Study of the growth of India’s population can be divided
into four periods of time.
• Period of Stable Population (1891 to 1921)
• Between 1891 and 1921, rate of growth of population in
India, was low. In these 30 years, population increased by
1.26 crore.
•  It was so because in these years, calamities and
epidemics, like famines, plague, malaria etc took a heavy
toll of human lives. The epidemic in 1918, took a toll of 140
lakh human lives.
• Period of Growth of Population (1921 to 1951)
• Since 1921, population has been increasing at a rapid
rate. The trend of growth of population in India, since
1921, has been consistently on the rise. That is why
Census commissioner has referred the year 1921 as year
of Great Divide. This increase was higher than that of the
previous thirty years.
• 1921 , the Year of Great Divide
• The year 1921, is a year of the great divide in the
demographic history of India when mortality started to
decline leading to acceleration in the rate of population
growth. During the next three decades (1921 -51), the rate of
population growth continued at a level of over 1% per
annum.
After independence, the rate of population growth
accelerated considerably because of extension of public
health services. The growth rate was at its peak in the period
1961 -81 with the population growing at a rate of 2.2 % per
annum.
• Period of population Explosion (1951 to 1981)
•  In this period, population increased at a very fast rate.
This period is called period of population explosion
•  1951 – 1961 in this period, growth rate was recorded to
be 21.6%, which was highest for any decade before that.
•  1961 – 1971 This period witnessed an increase in
population by 10 crore 90 lakhs, growth rate was 24.8 %
• 1971 – 1981 during this period, population in India rose to
68 crore 33 lakhs, Thus 13 crore 51 lakhs persons were
added to the total size of India’s population.
• Period of High Growth with Definite Signs of slowing
down (1981 to Present)
• 1981 – 1991 in this period, population went up to 84 crore 63
lakhs making addition of 16 crore in 10 years.
• 1991 – 2001 in 2001, the population of India went up to
102.90 crore. Thus, between the period 1991-2001, the
population of India increased by about 18.07 crore.
•  2011 In 2011, the population of India was 121.02 crores.
This represents an increase of 18.12 crore from the previous
decade. This was the first time since census began, that the
decadal population growth was lower than the previous
decade.
• Quantitative Population Growth Differentials in Different
Countries,
• Population Trends in Developing Countries
• Africa. By far, the largest regional percentage increase in population by
2050 will be in Africa, whose population can be expected to at least
double from 1.1 billion to about 2.3 billion. That projection, however,
depends on the assumption that sub-Saharan Africa's total fertility rate
(TFR, the average number of children per woman) will decline from 5.1 to
approximately 3.0 by 2050. That decline, in turn, assumes that the use of
family planning in the region will rise significantly. But recent surveys from
many sub-Saharan African countries have indicated that TFR decline is
either slower than projected or is not taking place at all. Only 20 percent
Asia. With a current population of 4.3 billion, Asia will likely
experience a much smaller proportional increase than
Africa but will still add about 1 billion people by 2050.
Much of Asia's future population growth will be
determined by what happens in China and India, two
countries that account for about 60 percent of the
region's population. In India, the largest unknowns are
future fertility trends in the heavily populated northern
states where TFRs of about 3.5 are well above those of
India's southern states.
Asia’s TFR is 2.2 (2.5 when the large statistical effect of
China is removed). Excluding China, 47 percent of
women in Asia use a modern form of con'raception.
Within Asia, several of the more economically advanced
countries such as Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and
Taiwan have TFRs of 1.4 or even lower. In Japan, 24
percent of the population is already ages 65 and older, a
proportion certain to continue growing. Thus far in Japan,
government efforts to restore somewhat higher past
levels of the TFR have not been successful.
Latin America. Latin America and the Caribbean is the
developing region with the smallest proportional growth
expected by 2050, from 599 million to 740 million, largely
due to fertility declines in several of its largest countries
such as Brazil and Mexico. The region's TFR is currently
about 2.2 children per woman, and the use of modern
contraception, at 67 percent, rivals that of developed
countries
• Population Trends in Developed Countries
• The very sharp decline in fertility in the developed
countries, and how long it has lasted, has been
completely unforeseen. TFRs of 1.4, 1.3, and even lower,
took demographers by surprise. Yet not all developed
countries tell the same story. In countries such as France
and Norway, social programs to support families—such
as generous maternity leave and subsidies for child care
—have kept TFRs close to 2.0.
Europe is likely to be the first region in history to see long-
term population decline largely as a result of low fertility
in Eastern Europe and Russia. Europe's population is
projected to decrease from 740 million to 732 million by
2050. The population of the 27 countries in the European
Union, around 502 million, should roughly maintain their
current size, even with large increases in the elderly
population compared with younger age groups.
The recent global recession has dimmed hopes in many
European countries on the prospects of raising low birth
rates to mitigate the economic effects of unprecedented
proportions of the elderly, such as shortages in pension
systems and rising health care costs for the "old-old"
(ages 85 and above). In Australia, Canada, New Zealand,
and the United States, continued growth from higher
births or continued immigration, or both, are expected,
although these countries have not been immune to lower
birth rates due to the recession. In the United States, for
example, the TFR was 1.9 births per woman in 2010.
• The Sex Composition of Population,
• According to the 2018 report on “vital statistics of India based on the
Civil Registration System”, Arunachal Pradesh recorded the best sex
ratio at birth in the country while Manipur recorded the worst sex ratio
at birth.
• The report was published by the Registrar General of India.
• Sex ratio at birth is number of females born per thousand males. It is
an important indicator to map the gender gap of a population.
•  Arunachal Pradesh recorded 1,084 females born per thousand males,
followed by Nagaland (965), Mizoram (964), Kerala (963).
• The worst sex ratio was reported in Manipur (757), Lakshadweep
(839) and Daman & Diu (877), Punjab (896) and Gujarat (896).
• Delhi recorded a sex ratio of 929, Haryana - 914.
 – The ratio was determined on the basis of data provided by 30 States
and Union Territories as the requisite information from six States
namely Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Sikkim, Uttar Pradesh and
West Bengal is not available.
– Major states are states with populations 10 million and above as per the
2011 Census.
• The Sample Registration System (SRS) Report 2018 shows that sex ratio
at birth in India, declined marginally from 906 in 2011 to 899 in 2018.
– Contrary to popular perception, India’s sex ratio at birth declined even
as per capita income increased nearly 10 times over the last 65
years, according to an IndiaSpend analysis of government data.
– This could be because rising income, which results in increased literacy,
makes it easier for families to access sex-selective procedures.
• Issues Related to Lower Sex Ratio at Birth:

– Gender-imbalance:

• Prof. Amartya Kumar Sen, in his world famous

article “Missing Women‟ has statistically proved that during
the last century, 100 million women have been missing in
south Asia.
• This is due to discrimination leading to death, experienced by
them from womb to tomb in their life cycles.
• An adverse child sex ratio is also reflected in the distorted
gender makeup of the entire population.
– Distortion in the Marriage System:

• Adverse ratio results in a gross imbalance in the number of

men and women and its inevitable impact on marriage
systems as well as other harms to women.
• In India, some villages in Haryana and Punjab have such
poor sex ratios that men “import” brides from other States.
This is often accompanied by the exploitation of these brides.
• There are concerns that skewed sex ratios lead to more
violence against both men and women, as well as human-
trafficking.
Way Forward
• Bringing Behavioural Change:
– Increasing female education and economic prosperity help to
improve the ratio. In this pursuit, the government’s Beti-Bachao
Beti Padhao Campaign has achieved remarkable success in
bringing behavioural change in the society.
• Sensitizing Youth:

– There is an urgent need to reach young people for reproductive

health education and services as well as to cultivate gender
equity norms.
– For this, the services of Accredited Social Health Activist
(ASHA) can be leveraged, especially in rural areas.
• Stringent Enforcement of Law:

– India must implement the Pre-Conception and Pre-

Natal Diagnostic Techniques (PCPNDT) Act,
1994 more stringently and dedicate more resources to
fighting the preference for boys.
– In this context, the Drugs Technical Advisory Board
decision to include ultrasound machines in the Drugs
and Cosmetics Act, 1940 is a step in the right
direction.
•  
Age Composition of Population,
• The age structure of the population refers to the proportion of
persons in different age groups relative to the total
population.
• The age structure changes in response to changes in levels
of development and the average life expectancy. Initially,
poor medical facilities, prevalence of epidemic disease and
other factors make for a relatively short life span. Moreover,
high infant and maternal mortality rates also have an impact
on the age structure. With development, especially medical
facilities, quality of life improves and with it the life
expectancy also improves (epistemological transition)
This change in the age structure is known as epistemological
transition. Now relatively smaller proportions of the population
are found in the younger age groups and larger proportions in
the older age groups. This is also referred to as the ageing of
the population.
Different age groups of the population are represented by age
structure.
• Working-age population: 15 to 59
• Dependent population: 0 to 15 and 60 and above age.
• A large proportion of the population above 60 shows the aging
population and requires high expenditures on health care facilities.
• A large proportion of 0 to 15 age if the young population shows a high
birth rate and youthful population.
Relevance for Economic development and Growth
• Age Structure maps out population pyramid: In case of
India, those under15 years old has decreased from 42% in
1971 and is projected to be 23% by 2026, while over 60
years age group will increase from 5 to 12 % in the same
period. In the same period working age group has increased
from 53% to 64%. This is known as demographic dividend.
• Such an age structure bodes well for the economy as there
would be low dependency ratio and more availability of
workforce that could contribute towards economic growth as
has been witnessed in East Asian countries in the 1990s.
• Age Structure helps in gauging needs of economy
and help tackle challenges arising due to changing
demographics: Demographic Dividend can only be
exploited with commitment levels of skill formation,
education and new employment opportunities.
• In future, rising old age cohort will need economic
structures aligned to their needs as is present case of
Japan, where there is increasing cases of lifestyle
diseases requiring health and expenditure towards that
needs resulting in development of newer sectors in
economy.
Age Structure also highlights regional differences in
demographics and helps foster federalism by allowing
units of a country to devise economic growth policies as
per their age structure example, Kerala has a higher
proportion of old age group requiring focus on their health
needs while Uttar Pradesh still has a large proportion of
the population in lower age group needing focus on
childcare, schooling, etc.
• Density of Population
• Number of persons per unit area is known as density of
population. It helps in getting a better understanding of
the spatial distribution of population in relation to land.
• Physiological Density = total population/net cultivated
area. It reveals the pressure of population on agricultural
land.
• Agricultural Density = total agricultural population/net
cultivable area. Agricultural population includes
cultivators and agricultural labourers and their family
members.
of population densities in the country which ranges from as
low as 17 persons per sq km in Arunachal Pradesh to
11,320 persons in the National Capital Territory of Delhi.
Bihar (1106), West Bengal (1028) and Uttar Pradesh
(829) have higher densities among the northern Indian
States, while Kerala (860) and Tamil Nadu (555) have
higher densities among the peninsular Indian states.
Top five and bottom five states/UTs by Population
Density: 2011
Top Five States/UTs Bottom Five States/UTs
State/UT Density State/UT Density
Delhi 11,297 Arunachal 17
Pradesh
Chandigarh 9,252 Andaman & 46
Nicobar
Islands
Puducherry 2,598 Mizoram 52
Bihar 1,102 Sikkim 86
West Bengal 1,029 Nagaland 119
Uttar Pradesh continues to be the most populous State in
the country with almost 200 million people living here,
which is more than the population of Brazil, the fifth most
populous country in the world. The combined population
of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra (the second most
populous State), at 312 million, is substantially greater
than the population of USA, the third most populous
country of the world. Twenty States and Union Territories
now have a population of over ten million. On the other
extreme, there are five States and Union Territories in the
country that are yet to reach the one million mark.
the relative share of population of the States and Union
Territories to the total population of India as per Census 2011.
The statement also provides the ranking of these States and
Union Territories by Population size in 2001 and 2011. While
Uttar Pradesh (199.6 million), Maharashtra (112.4 million),
Bihar (103.8 million), West Bengal (91.3 million) and Andhra
Pradesh (84.7 million) have all held on to the top five slots in
terms of their ranking in 2011 as compared to 2001, Madhya
Pradesh (72.6 million), which has moved on to take the sixth
position from its seventh position, pushing Tamil Nadu (72.1
million) now to the seventh spot. A little more than six of every
ten Indians live in one of these seven States.
• Urbanization and Economic Growth in India,
• According to Oxford Economics report, Indian cities will
make up most of the fastest-growing cities in the world
between 2019 and 2035, considering the year-on-year
Gross Domestic Product growth. Over 17 of the 20 top
cities on the list will be in India. The report said that
Indian cities including Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and
Chennai will be among the strongest performers
across the globe.
• According to a Bloomberg report, India will dominate
the top 10 cities in terms of economic growth over
the span of 20 years. Surat, a commercial center for
textiles in Gujarat, will witness the fastest GDP
growth by an average exceeding 9%. While economic
output in many of those Indian cities will remain rather
small in comparison to the world’s biggest
metropolises, aggregated gross domestic product of
all Asian cities will exceed that of all North American
and European urban centres combined in 2027.
• Urbanisation in India
• Housing and employment are the most crucial needs
for the migrating population. Presently, the cities are ill-
equipped to tackle such influx due to lack of employment
generation capability as well as housing capacity.
• The consequence of such deficiency is rampant
proliferation of illegal housings and slums. Lack of job
opportunity also leads to rise in crime rate. Hence, the
need of the hour is to make cities capable to absorb the
growing population
• But, the critical fact is that India has not urbanized
enough. India is one of the least urbanized countries in the
world. Most of the developed and developing countries
have more than 50% urbanisation and western
European countries along with the US and Canada has
80% urbanisation.
• The 2011 census states that extent of urbanization in India
is 32%. However, the experts believe that the percentage is
much higher. In one estimate it is as high as over 40%. The
reason for such under reporting is that many adjoining
urban areas are still being considered as rural areas.
• The urban India is facing population burden. There is a
huge influx of migrant workers into the cities. These
cities are ill equipped to bear the burden of the unskilled
workers. Rural urban migration is a point of concern, but
intra city migration is also a rising phenomenon.
• The Top 10 Indian cities mentioned in the Report
are situated either in the western belt or in the
southern belt. Eastern cities do not even feature in
the Top 10
• The Way Forward
• The recent survey has shown that the smaller cities and
towns have grown faster than the big cities like Delhi and
Mumbai. Hence, the focus must be put in to develop the
tier-3 and tie-4 towns. Waste management system,
schools, roads, proper sanitation infrastructure, water
supply, power and most importantly, housing facility have to
be developed so as to make small cities engines of growth.
• There is need to revisit urban planning system and the
focus should be on to improve the quality of life by
developing the social and the physical infrastructure.
• The local administration is the key to ensure the
sustainable growth of the cities. The Smart City
Mission in fact strengthens the governance system by
empowering the local administration. The local municipal
corporations should improve their respective credit
scores and issue Municipal bonds to raise funds.
• In this regard government schemes like Housing for
All and Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana (National Urban
Livelihoods Mission) have been playing an important
role.
• Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana (National Urban Livelihoods Mission)
to reduce poverty and vulnerability of the urban poor households by
enabling them to access gainful self-employment and skilled wage
employment opportunities can help in tackling the issues related to
urbanization.
• Housing for All – The Mission seeks to address the housing requirement
of urban poor including slum dwellers through following programme:
– Slum rehabilitation with the participation of private developers using
land as a resource.
– Promotion of Affordable Housing for weaker section through credit
linked subsidy.
– Affordable Housing in partnership with Public & Private sectors.
– Subsidy for beneficiary-led individual house
construction/enhancement.
Quality of Population
1:Quality of population determines how capable the human
resource of a country is ensure at productivity,standard of
living and social activities. the factors that check quality of
population can be education,health,sanitation,etc.
2:Population quality is the overall level of certain desirable
traits in a specific population.
3:The members of a population do not contribute equally to
the size of the next generation:
4:The distribution of births, especially in low-fertility
populations, varies markedly across the adult members.
• The salient features of the population projections at the
national level, and some of the underlying assumptions in
this regard, are as under:
• The population of India is expected to increase from 1029
million to 1400 million during the period 2001-2026 - an
increase of 36 percent in twenty- five years at the rate of 1.2
percent annually.
• the density of population will increase from 313 to 426
persons per square kilometer.
• The crude birth rate will decline from 23.2 during 2001-05 to
16.0 during 2021-25 because of falling level of total fertility.
• In contrast, the crude death rate is expected to fall marginally due to
changing age structure of the population with the rising median age
as a result of continuing decline in fertility and increase in the
expectation of life at birth. It will drop from 7.5 during 2001-05 to 7.2
during 2021-25. 
• The infant mortality rate of the country, which is reported to be 63 in
2002, is estimated to decline to 61 during the period 2001-05 and is
expected to go down to 40 by the end of the period 2021-25. 
• Between 2001 and 2026, because of the declining fertility, the
proportion of population aged under 15 years is projected to decline
from 35.4 to 23.4 percent; the proportion of the middle (15-59 years)
and the older ages (60 years and above) are set to increase
considerably.
• the number of older persons in the population is expected
to increase by more than double from 71 million in 2001
to 173 million in 2026 - an increase in their share to the
total population from 6.9 to 12.4 percent.
• The proportion of population in the working age-group 15-
59 years is expected to rise from 57.7 percent in 2001 to
64.3 percent in 2026. 
• The youth population in the age- group 15-24 years is
expected to increase from 195 million in 2001 to 240
million in 2011 and then continue to decrease to 224
million in 2026.
• Its proportion to total population is expected to fall from
19 percent in 2001 to 16 percent in 2026.
• Out of the total population increase of 371 million
between 2001 and 2026, the share of the workers in the
age-group 15-59 years in this total increase is 83 percent.
This has implication in the productivity of labour in future. 
• The sex ratio of the total population (females per 1000
males) is expected to decrease (i.e. become less
feminine) from 933 in 2001 to 930 during 2026. 
• The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is expected to decline from
2.9 during 2001-2005 to 2.0 during 2021-25. The
assumption is that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) would
decline steadily and would touch the floor value of 1.8 in
some states.
• The urban population in the country, which is 28 percent
in 2001, is expected to increase to 38 percent by 2026.
• The State, which is expected to have least growth in the
quarter century (2001-2026) is Tamil Nadu (15 percent),
followed by Kerala (17 percent).
• In contrast, Delhi will have the highest projected growth
of 102 percent during 2001-2026.
• The population of Uttar Pradesh is expected to be highest
among all the states of the country at almost 249 million
in 2026. 
• nearly 50 percent of India’s demographic growth during
this period of twenty five years, is projected to take place
in the BIMARU seven states.
• Twenty two percent of the total population increase in India of
371 million during 2001-26 is anticipated to occur in Uttar
Pradesh alone.
• In contrast, the contribution of the four southern states,
namely Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu,
to the total increase in population size of the country during
2001-2026 is expected to be 47 million -thirteen percent of
total demographic growth of the country.
• Continuing decline in fertility and increase in the expectation
of life at birth is expected to make a difference to the
proportion of older population (60 years and above) between
states.
• The State of Kerala, where the proportion of older persons aged 60
years and above is expected to increase from 11 percent in 2001 to
18 percent in 2026, Thus, almost every sixth individual in Kerala is
expected to be a senior citizen by 2026.
• In contrast, Uttar Pradesh is expected to have an increase of the
proportion of old age population from 6 percent in 2001 to 10 percent
in 2026, implying that the population of Uttar Pradesh will be
expected to be relatively younger compared to that of Kerala.
• The infant mortality rate (IMR) is expected to decline in all the states
during 2001-25,The IMR, which was highest in Orissa in 2002 at 87
is expected to come down to 52 in 2021-25, followed by Madhya
Pradesh (51).
• The lowest IMR is expected to be in Kerala, from 12 in 2001-
05 to 8 during 2021-25.
• Lowest sex ratio of 789 is expected to be in Delhi in 2026,
followed by 839 and 840 in Haryana and Punjab respectively.
• In the southern and eastern states except Kerala, the situation
would be reverse. In Kerala, where there are excess females
than males in Census 2001, the trend would remain the same
in 2026.
• Tamil Nadu is the other state, where the number of females is
expected to be equal to the number of males in 2026 (Fig.
11). 
• .
It is observed that by 2026, 99 percent of Delhi’s population
would be living in urban areas, which is highest among
the states, In contrast, 12 percent of the population of
Bihar would be expected to live in urban areas by the
same year (2026),which is lowest among all the states
• Demographic Dividend.
• According to estimates in a recently released United Nations report, India
is expected to add 273 million people by the year 2050. The report stated
that in the year 2019, India has an estimated population of 1.37 billion and
China, 1.43 billion and by the year 2027, India’s population is projected to
surpass China’s, making India the most populous nation in the world.
• 30 years down the line, the global population is projected to increase
by another 2 billion people by the year 2050, (from 7.7 billion in 2019 to
9.7 billion). The report has highlighted higher fertility rates, growing older
population and migration as few reasons behind projections of the
population growth.
• Health economists claim that the major implications of population growth
will be for the young population that will face a situation of lack of
resources in the future.
• Demographic Dividend
• India has many young people who are unskilled, unemployable,
burden on services and facilities with the minimal contribution.
• In a country, young population is a demographic dividend if the
youth is skilled, employable and contributing to the economy.
• As per NFHS-4, in 2015-16, India’s TFR was 3.2. It is likely that in
the year 2019, India will achieve a replacement level fertility.
– Total fertility rate (TFR) in simple terms refers to the total
number of children born or likely to be born to a woman in her
lifetime if she were subject to the prevailing rate of age-specific
fertility in the population.
– TFR of about 2.1 children per woman is called
Replacement-level fertility. This value represents the
average number of children a woman would need to
have to reproduce herself by bearing a daughter who
survives to childbearing age.
– If replacement level fertility is sustained over a
sufficiently long period, each generation will exactly
replace itself without any need for the country to
balance its population.
• Challenges
• The challenge is not about how to contain the population
but about how the government exploits the population
growth to its best economic advantages i.e. how the
government trains this large young population to make it
productive, effective, competent and contributing to the
economic growth.
• The challenge in the next 15 years for the Indian
government is to raise the economic status of India
from being a low middle income country to at least a
high middle income country.
For this, the government needs to take necessary steps in
creating the economic growth momentum by ensuring
that investments are adequately made in key
infrastructure areas, particularly social infrastructure like
education, water and health so that a demographic
dividend does not become a demographic liability or
disaster
• The requirement of creating so many jobs will not be a
challenge if the economy starts growing at a faster rate.
India’s real challenge is Quality of Life. 21% of 60+
population is suffering from one or other chronic
morbidities and India is also the second highest in terms
of dementia and Alzheimers. Around 4 million cases are
reported in 104 million elderly population. That is
why there is a need of strong social protection
schemes.
Recently the government has launched
the Ayushman Bharat scheme.
– The Prime Minister has also set a target of raising the economy’s
size to 5 trillion dollar by the year 2024. This is necessary to
mitigate the negative impact of this kind of population growth
where the share of older people is rising pretty rapidly.
– The growth for older people is 370% from 2019 to 2050,
whereas the total population is growing only by 56%. Therefore,
the burden of older people in the economy needs to be
contained.
– The countries like China and Japan who have been able to
control their population through various measures are able
to manage people in the older age through enough social
security provisions for such people, enabling old aged people for
managing on their own.
• At the population level, different states are growing at
different pace, thus each of them show different signs of
population stress. It needs to be seen that why states in
the South are better off in containing population than
states in the North and east.

Is containing population a solution?

• Containing the population has its own set of
problems. China which had the One Child Policy has
witnessed an increase in the population of old aged
people.
 – China went about containing its population growth in a coercive
way. India tried to experiment the same during the emergency
period.
– The experiment faced negative reaction and has not been taken
up by any government thereafter.
• There has been an improvement in bringing down the child
mortality, infant mortality ratio and in increasing the life
expectancy of the people in the country. On the one hand, if the
total fertility ratio does not decrease and on the other hand, there
remains improvement in healthcare and other benefits, India will
have a population explosion leading to a demographic disaster.
• Women in India want fewer children so desired fertility rates are
much lower than the actual fertility rates. There is a 13% unwanted
fertility in India. Women not having access to family planning services
for different reasons including lack of education etc are some of the
factors behind this. If India is able to address this 13% unmet need by
2030, it will witness 30 million lesser population growth.
– It has been seen that women have more children than what their
bodies can actually bear.
• It is becoming very expensive for the poor and even the middle class
to have more than one child or two children.
• India still has a high maternal mortality rate and child mortality
rate (especially amongst the poorest).
• However, aspirations of the younger generation have changed, they
want fewer children.
• Way Forward
• India needs to invest more in the health sector. India
invests only 1.3% of its GDP. The family planning budget
is only 4% of the entire health budget and within that
India spends only 1.5% on birth spacing methods.
– Investments should be made particularly for the old
people because by the year 2050, India’s population of
old people is going to grow almost 10 times more.
• Education is very important, not only for empowering
women but for fertility to decline.
– Education should be made free for women till college-
level.
– Better education will help women in better decision
making for family planning.
– Unless women are part of the workforce, no society
can bring down fertility rates with progress. Therefore,
policies must look at the whole issue of declining
workforce participation by women.
• India needs to focus on some areas which are socially,
culturally, economically depressed. Identification of 140 high
focussed districts is the right step by the government in
this direction. However, it needs to work in the whole of Bihar,
U.P., Madhya Pradesh and Assam.
• India needs to give huge stress on declining sex ratios and
the discrimination towards girls so that people don’t have a
high number of children in the hope of having a boy.
• India can achieve a number of SDGs if it links them with
family planning. Family planning is a promotive and
preventive method for bringing down maternal mortality and
child mortality. 
• Human Development in India - The Concept and
Measures of Human Development,
•  Human development is defined as the process of enlarging
people’s freedoms and opportunities and improving their
well-being. Human development is about the real freedom
and ability of the ordinary people to decide – who to be,
what to do, and how to live.
Human development focuses on improving the lives
people lead rather than assuming that economic growth will
lead, automatically, to greater wellbeing for all. Income
growth is seen as a means to development, rather than an
end in itself.
Historical Journey of Human Development Philosophy:
• Aristotle gave the idea that wealth is only a means to
achieve something else, not an end in itself.
• Kautalya in his Arthashastra has written about social
welfare as an important duty of the king.
• The early founders of quantitative economics expressed
their concern in economic development for better lifestyle
and mainstreaming of the poor.
• The importance of wealth magnified with imperialism
and colonialism. Ultimately 20th century witnessed
a wild craze for wealth, income, GNP and GDP.
• The experience of developing countries proved that income
growth does not solve the problems of mass poverty and
this highlighted the other dimensions of development.
• Due to this, the concept of social development came into
existence, which emphasises the development of the totality
of society, in the economic, political, social and cultural
aspects.
• Human development concept is closely related to these
two (Social development and economic development) but its
particular emphasis is on the quality of life of every
individual, group or community
• The Human Development Index (HDI), which combines indicators of life
expectancy, education or access to knowledge and income or standard
of living, captures the level and changes to the quality of life.
• The index is the making of two acclaimed economists from Pakistan and
India, namely Mahbub ul Haq and Amartya Sen. It was initially launched as
an alternative measure to the gross domestic product, as it stresses the
centrality of human development in the growth process.
• India has done a seemingly great job in multiplying it’s economy many folds,
but progress on the HDI front has not been very appealing. The last three
decades HDI’s data indicate that India has raised its HDI score at an annual
average rate of mere 1.42%.
• Therefore, if India has to realise it’s the aspiration of becoming a superpower,
it must invest to reduce the burden of social and economic disadvantage to
vulnerable sections of its population.
Progress Made by India

• As the UNDP’s HDR Report 2019 notes, India’s gross

national income per capita has more than
doubled since 2005, and the number of
“multidimensionally poor” people fell by more than 271
million in the decade since 2005-06.
• Additionally, inequalities in “basic areas” of human
development have reduced. For instance, historically
marginalised groups are catching up with the rest of the
population in terms of educational attainment.
Reasons For India’s Underperformance on HDI
The 2019 HDI ranks India with a per capita income of $6,681 in the
131st position, which is a notch lower than its 130th rank in 2018. The malefic
effects of deep-rooted societal and economic disadvantages account for a
low rank for an economy that is in the global top 6 by size. Following factors
can be dubbed as reasons for India’s dismal performance in HDI:
• Increasing Income Inequalities: Income inequalities amplify failings on
other HDI indices of human development. Intergenerational income mobility
is lower in countries with high-income inequality.
– It manifests at birth and determines access to quality healthcare,
education, and opportunities.
• Further, there is an increasing trend in income inequality. In India, the income
growth of the bottom 40% between 2000 and 2018 (58%) was significantly
below the average income growth for the entire population (122%).
• Gender Inequality: Numbers show female per capita income in
India was only 21.8% of that of males, while it was more than double
at 49% in other developing countries.
– The meagre per capita income of females in India is mainly
because of their exclusion from the labour force.
– Only 20.5% of the women in the working-age group were in the
labour force, pointing to its dismal Female Labour Force
Participation Rate (LFPR).
• Cumulative Impact: The cumulative impact of these factors spills
over across generations. It is this intergenerational cycle which
denies opportunities to those at the bottom of the pyramid
Way Forward
• Fair Income Distribution: While the size of economic
resources is a key factor affecting human development,
the distribution and allocation of these resources also play
a major role in determining the level of human development.
– Many global case studies show that high growth
accompanied by more effective income distribution can
help enhance human development, even with moderate
social expenditures.
– For Example, South Korea and Taiwan improved income
distribution through early land reforms.
• Investing in Social Infrastructure: Universalisation of education
and health care could have pulled deprived sections out of the
poverty trap.
– Sustaining and improving the quality of life will also depend on
policies crafted to handle major emerging challenges such as
urbanisation, the housing deficit, access to power, water,
education and health care.
• Streamlining of the Finances: Streamlining the traditional approach
of generating new sources of revenue generation, steps like
rationalised targeting of subsidies, judicious use of revenues meant
for social sector development etc will probably meet the financial
requirements needed for improving HDI.
• Good Governance Reforms: Effective performance
evaluation of the projects and activities engaged in the
social sector development through innovative methods
like outcome budgeting, social auditing and participatory
democracy has been known to yield positive results.
• Gender Empowerment: Government should invest in
Gender equality and women’s empowerment, as they are
integral to human development.
• Human development Index for Various States in
India,
• The HDBI project proposes to cover 15 States from 2012
till 2017 with a total budget of USD 2.7million
{approximately Rs. 16.2 crores (1USD[at]INR 60)}.
State level initiatives include: Preparation of State level
Human Development Reports, District Human
Development Reports, Regional Human Development
Reports, Research based policy advocacy, Capacity
development, Strengthening statistical systems and use
of Community monitoring tools.
National level initiatives include: HD Policy advocacy,
Preparation of Regional/Thematic Human Development
Reports,Capacity development, Strengthening statistical
systems, Budget analysis for improving human
development, and presentation of District Human
Development Reports.

HDBI project also aims to foster partnership across a range

of stakeholders including parliamentarians, the private
sector, civil society organizations, universities, the media,
etc.
• The 17 major states of India, with their sizeable
population and geographical area, are bigger than many
countries in the world. If the 17 states were to be deemed
as separate countries, then these would rank from 104
(Kerala) to 163 (Bihar), according to the scores in the
latest UN report.
• Thus, Kerala would be the only state classified by the UN
to have high human development since it has a score
greater than 0.7 (in a scale of 0-1). The remaining 16
would be classified as either medium or low human
development
• Income is correlated to social outcomes, but not
perfectly
• Whether growth is necessary or sufficient (or neither) for
human development has often been a topic of heated
debate. Such discussions have often centred on the
issue of the Gujarat model versus the Kerala model.
• Our calculations point towards two inferences. The
relation between per capita income of a state and its
social indicators is not strictly one-to-one, but
nevertheless is still positive.
To elaborate, Kerala remains the best performer among
major states in terms of health and education, despite
being ranked only fifth in income among the 17 major
states. On the other hand, Haryana emerges as the
richest state, but is ranked seventh in the health and
education sub-index. Thus, high income need not
necessarily guarantee the best health and educational
outcomes. At the same time, data also shows that the
relation between income and social indicators is indeed
positive
National Human Development Report,
• Like UNDP’s HDR the Planning Commission of India had
also published the first NHDR in 2002. The NHDR has
also developed its own human development indicators
like Human Development Index (HDI), Human Poverty
Index (HPI), Gender Equality Index (GHI), etc.
• These indicators are slightly different from UNDP’s
indicators. The Planning Commission released the
second India Human Development Report (HDR) 2011 in
October, 2011.
Highlights of the report are:
 (i) From 2000 to 2007. India’s Human Development Index rose
by 21 per cent, higher than China’s 17 per cent.
(ii) It places Kerala on top of the index of achieving highest
literacy rate and quality health services.
(iii) The report claims that the absolute number of the poor (27
per cent according to the report) stood at 302 million
compared to 320 million in 1973.
(iv) The report says that 60 per cent of the poor are still
concentrated in Bihar.
(v) The top five slots were occupied by Kerala, Delhi, Himachal
Pradesh, Goa and Punjab.
• (vi) Haryana slipped two places from 7 to 9, while Jammu
and Kashmir and Uttarakhand occupied 9th and 14th
respectively.
• (vii) For the six lowest HDI states – Bihar, Andhra
Pradesh, Chhattisgarh. Madhya Pradesh Orissa and
Assam – HDI improvement has been considerably above
the national average Among the poorer states, only
Rajasthan and West Bengal have shown HDI
improvement below the national average.
Changing profile of GDP and employment in India,
The data reveal that GDP from the primary sector (ciz., agriculture and allied entities like
forestry and fishing)declined from 59 per cent in 1950-51 to 46 per cent in 1970-71 and
thereafter, sharply declined to 16.1 per cent I 2011-12. This was partially neutralized by
an increase in the share of secondary sector from 13 per cent in 1950-51 to about 22 per
cent in 1970-71 and further increase to about 24.3 per cent in 2011-12. But the biggest
hike in GDP share occurred in case of services from about 27 per cent in 1950-51 to 32
per cent in 1970-71 to 59.0 per cent in 2011-12. The emerging structural change in GDP
shares witnessed a big decline in the share of agriculture, coupled with a modest
increase in the share of industry and a much sharper increase in the share of services
which now account for nearly half of the total GDP. Employment Pattern in India Data
provided in table 3 based on the various rounds of the National Sample Survey reveals
that the share of workforce deployed in agriculture declined from 74 per cent in 1972-73
to about 53.2 per cent in 2009-10. Along with this declines, the share of employment in
industry increased from 11.2 per cent in 1972-73 to 14.9 per cent in 1993-94 and further
to 21.5 per cent in 2009-10. Also the share of services in total employment increased
from 14.6 per cent in 1972-73 to 25.4 per cent in 2009-10.
Changing profile of GDP and employment in India,
The emerging structural change in GDP shares witnessed a big decline
in the share of agriculture, coupled with a modest increase in the
share of industry and a much sharper increase in the share of
services which now account for nearly half of the total GDP.
Employment Pattern in India Data provided in table 3 based on the
various rounds of the National Sample Survey reveals that the share
of workforce deployed in agriculture declined from 74 per cent in
1972-73 to about 53.2 per cent in 2009-10. Along with this declines,
the share of employment in industry increased from 11.2 per cent in
1972-73 to 14.9 per cent in 1993-94 and further to 21.5 per cent in
2009-10. Also the share of services in total employment increased
from 14.6 per cent in 1972-73 to 25.4 per cent in 2009-10.
GDP, Employment and Productivity per Worker in India
• India Labour Productivity dropped by 2.63 % YoY in Dec 2019,
compared with a growth of 5.35 % in the previous year
• In the latest reports, India Population reached 1,355.00 million
people in Mar 2021. Its Unemployment Rate increased to 7.11 % in
Dec 2020. The country's Labour Force Participation Rate dropped to
46.29 % in Dec 2020.
•  India will have to raise its labour productivity growth to 6.3% to
achieve 8% GDP growth while it has to be up by 7.3% in order to
achieve economic growth of 9%. The labour productivity growth in
the current financial year has been pegged at 5.2%. Labour
productivity during 2004-05 to 2007-08 have stood at 8.5%.
,
“This is 40.4% higher than the level attained in FY19. Given
the growth slowdown, this looks unlikely in the near term
but is not an insurmountable task,” it said in a statement.
India’s labour productivity growth, like other nations,
came under pressure in the aftermath of the 2008 global
financial crisis, especially during FY11-FY15 (5.0%).
However, it recovered thereafter and grew at 5.8% during
FY16-FY19.
According to India Ratings and Research, the challenge on
the productivity front for India is twofold.
First, how to raise the overall labour productivity to a level that
delivers the required GDP growth rate, and secondly how to
lift the labour productivity in the lagging sectors so that
growth is more evenly balanced and sustainable over the
medium- to long-term.
Sectors such as manufacturing (7.2%), electricity, gas, and
water supply (7.7%), transport, storage, and communications
(7.4%), and community, social, and personal services (6.2%)
contributed significantly to the overall labour productivity
during FY00-FY16
However, the sectors that lagged are construction, agriculture and mining
which recorded labour productivity growth of 0.4%, 3.2% and 4.8%,
respectively. On the contrary, China maintained a labour productivity of
6.5% and above across all sectors during FY00-FY16, it added.

In FY19, India’s labour productivity per person employed in purchasing

power parity terms at 2018 prices was $20,367 as against China’s
$34,863. “India Ratings and Research believes the quantity of labour
along with the non-ICT capital will continue to contribute significantly to
the GDP growth due to the demographic composition,” it said, adding
any decline in the contribution of quality of labour and ICT capital is a
matter of concern
.
Relative Shift in the Shares of NSDP and Employment in
Agriculture, Industry and Services in Different States.
Question Answer / Final Discussion