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Water Demand, Sources and Population Forecasting

This document discusses water demand forecasting and population forecasting methods. It defines water demand and the key quantities used to assess it, such as total annual volume and average daily flow rates. It also describes different water sources and classes of water usage. Population forecasting methods include the arithmetic and geometric growth methods, which use past population data to project future populations based on constant or proportional growth rates. Sample problems demonstrate how to apply these methods to predict future water needs based on reservoir capacity and per capita demand.

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Larissa Rivera
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244 views

Water Demand, Sources and Population Forecasting

This document discusses water demand forecasting and population forecasting methods. It defines water demand and the key quantities used to assess it, such as total annual volume and average daily flow rates. It also describes different water sources and classes of water usage. Population forecasting methods include the arithmetic and geometric growth methods, which use past population data to project future populations based on constant or proportional growth rates. Sample problems demonstrate how to apply these methods to predict future water needs based on reservoir capacity and per capita demand.

Uploaded by

Larissa Rivera
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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HYDROLOGY

WATER DEMAND,
SOURCES AND
POPULATION
FORECASTING
Water Demand
• Defined as the volume of water requested by users to
satisfy their needs.
• While planning a water supply scheme, it is necessary to
find out not only the total yearly water demand but also
to assess the required average rates of flow and the
variations in these rates.
• The following quantities are generally assessed and
recorded:
 Total annual volume in liters or million liters. (1
MLD = 106 L/d)
 Annual Average rate of flow in liters per day, i.e.
V/365
 Annual average rate of flow in liter per day per
person (lpcd), called per capita demand
Water Source Types
• River/stream water
• Lake water
• Ground water (Tube well water)
• Rain water
• Wastewater effluent (treated for
human consumption)
 An effort towards reuse and
recycle!
 Is it acceptable to use it for human
consumption?
Classes and Uses of Water Demand
• Domestic
• Municipal
• Irrigation
• Power generation
• Fisheries
• Livestock raising
• Industrial
• Recreational
Classes and Uses of Water Demand
• Use of water for domestic purposes is the utilization
of water directly drawn from a source by a household
for drinking, washing, bathing, cooking, watering of
gardens or animals and other domestic uses

• Use of water for municipal purposes is the


utilization of water for supplying the water
requirements of a community, whether by piped or
bulk distribution for domestic and other uses, direct
consumption, the drawer or abstractor of which being
the national government, its subsidiary agencies,
local government units, private persons, cooperatives
or corporations.
Classes and Uses of Water Demand
• Use of water for irrigation is the utilization of water
for producing agricultural crops.

• Use of water for power generation is the utilization


of water for producing electrical or mechanical
power.

• Use of water for fisheries is the utilization of water


for the propagation and culture of fish as a
commercial enterprise or any other aqua-culture
ventures.
Classes and Uses of Water Demand
• Use of water for livestock raising is the utilization of
water for large herds or flocks of animals raised as a
commercial enterprise.

• Use of water for industrial purposes is the utilization


of water in factories, industrial plants and mines
including the use of water as an ingredient of a
finished product.

• Use of water for recreational purposes is the


utilization of water for swimming pools, bath houses,
boating, water skiing, golf courses and other similar
facilities in resorts and other places of recreation.
Water Quantity Estimation
The quantity of water required for
municipal uses for which the water supply
scheme has to be designed requires
following data:

• Water consumption rate (Per Capita


Demand in liters per day per
head/capita)
• Population to be served.

Quantity= Per capita demand x Population


Water Quantity Estimation
• Per Capita Demand (lpcd) = X
• Total number of population in a community
(person) = P
• Total daily water demand (liters/day) = P x X
• Amount of water required for duration (days) = T
• Total amount of water required, Vtotal (liters) = X
xPxT
• The water source should have this much
(i.e.,Vtotal) to be considered as a potential water
source.
Per Capita Demand
• Annual average amount of daily water
required by one person and includes the
domestic use, industrial and commercial
uses, public use, wastes, etc. It may
therefore be expressed as:

• Per capita demand in lpcd = Quantity


Required in 12 Months / (365) x
Population)
Factors affecting per capita demand
• Size of the city: Per capita demand for big
cities is generally large as compared to that
for smaller towns as big cities have
sewerage houses.
• Presence of industries.
• Climatic conditions.
• Habits of people and their economic status.
• Quality of water: If water is aesthetically
medically safe, the consumption will
increase as people will not resort to private
wells, etc.
Factors affecting per capita demand
• Pressure in the distribution system.
• Efficiency of water works administration:
Leaks in water mains and services; and
unauthorized use of water can be kept to a
minimum by surveys.
• Cost of water.
• Policy of metering and charging method:
Water tax is charged in two different ways:
on the basis of meter reading and on the
basis of certain fixed monthly rate.
Design Period

• Number of years in future for which


the given facility is available to meet
the demand.
• Number of years in future for which
supply will be more than demand.
Some Definitions on Water Demand

All water demand types are expressed as ratio of


mean average daily flow.
Population Forecasting

• Calculation or Prediction of
some future events as a result of
study and analysis of available
records or data.
Factors affecting changes in population

• Increase due to births


• Decrease due to deaths
• Increase/Decrease due to migration
• Increase due to Annexation
Population Forecasting Methods
Different methods are available to use past
population information to project future
populations.

1. Arithmetic Growth Method


2. Geometric Growth Method
Arithmetic growth method
• In this method, the rate of growth of population is
assumed to be constant.
• This method is suitable for large and old city with
considerable development.
• If it used for small, average or comparatively new
cities, it will give lower population estimate than
actual value.
• In this method, the average increase in population
per decade is calculated from the past census
reports. This increase is added to the present
population to find out the population of the next
decade.
Arithmetic growth method
Geometric growth method
• This method assumes uniform rate of increase,
that is the rate of increase is proportional to
population).
• This method must be used with caution, for when
applied it may produce too large results for rapidly
grown cities in comparatively short time.
• This would apply to cities with unlimited scope of
expansion. 
Geometric growth method
Sample Problem 1
Predict the population for the year 2021, 2031,
and 2041 from the following population data.

YEAR 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

POPULATION 858,545 1,015,672 1,201,553 1,691,538 2,077,820 2,585,862


Sample Problem 2
The city of Babuyan has a present population
of 220,000 in 2008 to increase geometrically
to 250,000 in the next 15 years. The existing
reservoir has a capacity of 200 MLD. The
average daily consumption is equal to 620
liters per capita per day. Up to what year will
the reservoir be adequate?
Sample Problem 3
Angat Dam has a capacity of approximately
3.69 x 1010 m3. Neglect the effect of
evaporation. For how many years could this
water supply a city with population of 920,000
if the average daily consumption is 410 liters
per person.
Assignment:
The population data for Cavite is given below. The reservoir has a
capacity of 57,787.64 gpm (gallons per minute). The reservoir will
be adequate up to year 2098. Determine the per capita demand by
(a) arithmetic growth method (b) geometric growth method.

YEAR 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

POPULATION 1,051,273 2,321,562 3,455,791 4,662,358 5,880,956 6,713,830


END OF
PRESENTATION.

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