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Fundamentals of Dempster-Shafer Theory: Presented by

The document summarizes Dempster-Shafer theory, which is a framework for reasoning with uncertainty. It places belief in propositions on a scale from 0 to 1 rather than assigning absolute probabilities. A basic probability assignment assigns belief values to subsets of a frame of discernment. A belief function calculates the total belief in a proposition based on the basic probability assignments. Dempster's rule of combination allows combining independent pieces of evidence to obtain a joint belief function.

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Komal Banik
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40 views

Fundamentals of Dempster-Shafer Theory: Presented by

The document summarizes Dempster-Shafer theory, which is a framework for reasoning with uncertainty. It places belief in propositions on a scale from 0 to 1 rather than assigning absolute probabilities. A basic probability assignment assigns belief values to subsets of a frame of discernment. A belief function calculates the total belief in a proposition based on the basic probability assignments. Dempster's rule of combination allows combining independent pieces of evidence to obtain a joint belief function.

Uploaded by

Komal Banik
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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www.kdd.uncc.

edu

College of Computing and Informatics

Fundamentals of University of North Carolina, Charlotte

Dempster-Shafer Theory
presented by
Zbigniew W. Ras
University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC
Dempster-Shafer Theory

based on the idea of placing a number between zero and one to


indicate the degree of belief of evidence for a proposition.
Basic Probability Assignment - function m: 2^X [0,1]
such that: (1) m()=0, (2) [m(Y) : Y X] = 1 /total belief/.

m(Y) – basic probability number of Y.

Belief function over X - function Bel: 2^X  [0,1] such that:


Bel(Y)= [m(Z): Z  Y].

FACT 1: Function Bel: 2^X  [0,1] is a belief function iff


(1)Bel()=0,
(2) Bel(X)= 1,
(3) Bel({A(i): i {1,2,…,n}) =
[(-1)^{|J|+1}Bel({A(i): i  J}) : J  {1,2,…,n}]
for every positive integer n and all subsets A(1), A(2), …, A(n) of X

FACT 2: Basic probability assignment can be computed from:

m(Y) = [ (-1)^{|Y – Z| Bel(Z): Z Y], where Y  X.


Example: basic probability assignment

X a b c d
x1 0 L m_a({x1,x2,x3,x6})=[2+2/3]/7=8/21
m_a({x3,x6,x5})=[1+2/3]/7=5/21
x2 0 S L m_a({x3,x6,x4,x7})=[2+2/3]/7=8/21
x3 P 1 L
x4 3 R 1 L
x5 2 2 L
Basic probability assignment (given)
x6 P 2 L
m({x1,x2,x3,x6})=8/21
x7 3 P 2 H m({x3,x6,x5})=5/21
m({x3,x6,x4,x7})=8/21
1) m_a uniquely defined
for x1,x2,x4,x5,x7. defines attribute m_a
2)m_a undefined for
x3,x6.
m_a(x1)=m_a(x2) =a1, m_a(x5)=a2,…..
Example: basic probability assignment

Basic probability assignment – m:


X={x1,x2,x3,x4,x5}
m(x1,x2,x3)=1/2, m(x1,x2)=1/4, m(x2,x4)=1/4

Belief function:
Bel({x1,x2,x3,x5})= ½ + ¼ = ¾, ………..

Focal Element and Core

Y  X is called focal element iff m(Y) > 0.


Core – the union of all focal elements.

Doubt Function - Dou: 2^X  [0,1] , Y  X


Dou(Y) = Bel(Y).
Plausibility Function – Pl(Y) = 1 – Dou(Y)
Pl(Y)=[m(Z): Z  Y  ]
{1,2}
{1,2} {1,2}
{2,3} {1,2}
{1,3}
1/4 3/4 1/2
m({3})=1/2, m({2,3})=1/4,
m({1,2})=1/4.

{1,2}
{1} {1,2}
{2} {1,2}
{3}
0 0 1/2
Core={1,2,3}

Pl({1,2}) = m({2,3})+m({1,2}) = ½,
Pl({1,3})= m({3})+m({2,3})+m({1,2}) = 1
Properties:

- Bel() = Pl() = 0
- Bel(X) = Pl(X) = 1
- Bel(Y)  Pl(Y)
- Bel(Y) + Bel(Y) 1
- Pl(Y) + Pl(Y)  1
- if Y  Z, then Bel(Y)  Bel(Z) and Pl(Y)  Pl(Z)

Bel: 2^X  [0,1] is called a Bayesian Belief Function iff


1)Bel() = 0
2)Bel(X) = 1
3)Bel (Y  Z)= Bel(Y) + Bel(Z), where Y, Z  X, Y  Z = 

Fact: Any Bayesian belief function is a belief function.


The following conditions are equivalent:

1)Bel is Bayesian
2)All focal elements of Bel are singletons
3)Bel = Pl
4)Bel(Y) + Bel(Y) = 1 for all Y  X
Dempster’s Rule of Combination
Bel1, Bel2 – belief functions representing two different pieces
of evidence which are independent. Domain = {x1,x2,x3}
Bel1  Bel2 – their orthogonal sum /Dempster’s rule of comb./
m1, m2 – basic probability assignments linked with Bel1, Bel2.

{x1,x2} {x1,x2,x3} {x2,x4}


m1
1/4 3/2 1/4
{x2} {x2} {x2} {x2}
3/8 3/32 3/16 3/32
{x1,x2,x4} {x1,x2} {x1,x2} {x2,x4}
3/8 3/32 3/16 3/32
{x1,x2,x3} {x1,x2} {x1,x2,x3} {x2}
1/4 1/16 1/8 1/16

m2 (m1 m2)({x1,x2})=3/32+3/16+1/16=11/32
(m1 m2)({x1,x2,x3})=1/8
(m1 m2)({x2})=3/32+3/16+3/32+1/16=7/16
(m1  m2)({x2,x4})=3/32
Questions?

Thank You

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