Software Cost Estimation

J. C. Huang
Department of Computer Science
University of Houston
Houston, TX 77204-3010
 On Precision
It is the mark of an instructed mind to rest
satisfied with the degree of precision which
the nature of subject admits, and not to seek
exactness when only an approximation of
the truth is possible... -Aristotle

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 An Observation
Estimation of resources, cost, and schedule
for a software development effort requires
experience, access to good historical
information, and the courage to commit to
quantitative measures when qualitative data
are all that exist.

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 Another Observation
  Estimation for software project carries
inherent risk because of uncertainty in
project complexity, project size, and
structure (of requirements and problem to
be solved).

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 Major Factors
Major factors that influence software cost:
• product size and complexity
• programmer ability
• available time
• required reliability
• level of technology

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 Three Approaches
Estimation can be done by using

• experience and historical data

• decomposition techniques
• empirical models

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 Decomposition Techniques

To obtain an estimation, we can decompose

the problem to be solved, or decompose the
process.

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 Decomposition
Decomposition should be done in such a way that
1. size can be properly estimated,
2. cost or effort required for each component can
be accurately estimated,
3. the team's ability to handle the components is
well known, and
4. the estimated values will be relatively unaffected
by changes to the requirements.

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 Problem-Based Estimation
1. Based on the software scope, decompose the software into
problem functions that can be estimated individually.
2. Estimate LOC or FP of each function.
3. Make optimistic (sopt), most likely (sm), and pessimistic
(spess) estimates for each item. Then compute the expected
value:
EV = (sopt + 4 sm + spess)/6
4. Apply baseline productivity metrics to compute estimated
cost or effort.

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 Process-Based Estimation

1. Decompose the process into a set of tasks

or activities.
2. Estimate the cost or effort required for
each.

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 Empirical Estimation Models

• An estimation model provides empirically

derived formulas to predict effort as a
function of LOC or FP.
• The data used to support these models are
derived from a limited sample. Thus no
model is appropriate for all classes of
software.

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 Structure of Estimation Model

E = A + BXC
where A, B, and C are empirically derived
constants, E is the effort in person months, and X
is the estimation variable, either in LOC or FP.

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 LOC-based Model
Walston-Felix Model E = 5.2(KLOC)0.91
Bailey-Basili Model E = 5.5+0.73(KLOC)1.16
Boehm Model (simple) E = 3.2(KLOC)1.05
Doty Model for KLOC > 9 E = 5.288(KLOC)1.047

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 FP-based model

Albrecht and Gaffney Model

E = -13.39 + 0.0545(FP)
Kemerer Model
E = 60.62 + 7.728(FP)310-8
Matson, Barnett & Mellichamp Model
E = 585.7 + 15.12(FP)

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 COCOMO
The COnstructive COst MOdel

It is LOC-based.

There are three models:

basic,
intermediate, and
advanced.
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 Three Classes of Software Project

• Organic -- a relatively small simple project in

which small teams with good application
experience work to a set of less than rigid
requirements.
• Semi-detached -- an intermediate project in which
teams with mixed experience must meet a mix of
rigid and less than rigid requirements.
• Embedded -- a project that must meet tight
hardware, software, and operational constraints.
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 The COCOMO (continued)
The basic equations
E = a(KLOC)b
T = cEd
where E is the effort required in person-months, T
is the required development time in chronological
months, KLOC is the estimated size of software in
thousand lines of delivered source code. The
constants a, b, c, and d are listed below:
©J. C. Huang 2005 Estimation Slide 17 of 44
 The COCOMO Model (continued)

type of project a b c d

organic 2.4 1.05 2.5 0.38

semi-detached 3.0 1.12 2.5 0.35
embedded 3.6 1.20 2.5 0.32

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 The COCOMO (continued)

Effort equation for the intermediate model:

E = a(KLOC)b(EAF)

where EAF is the effort adjustment factor that

ranges from 0.9 to 1.4, and constants a and b
are

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 The COCOMO (continued)

type of project a b
organic 3.2 1.05
semi-detached 3.0 1.12
embedded 2.8 1.20

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 The Software Equation
E = ((LOC)B0.333/P)3(1/t4)
where
E = effort in person-months
t = project duration in months
B = special skill factor ranging from 0.16 to 0.39
P = productivity parameter

(ref. www.qsm.com)
©J. C. Huang 2005 Estimation Slide 21 of 44
 The Software Equation
E = ((LOC)B0.333/P)3(1/t4)
where
E= effort in person-months
t= project duration in months
B= special skill factor ranging from 0.16 to 0.39

P = productivity parameter that reflects

 overall process maturity and management practices
 the extent to which good SE practices are used
 the level of programming language used
 the state of software environment
 the skill and experience of the software team
 the complexity of the application

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 Major Factors
Major factors that influence software cost:
• product size and complexity
• programmer ability
• available time
• required reliability
• level of technology

©J. C. Huang 2005 Estimation Slide 23 of 44

 Product Complexity
Three categories of products:
Application programs: those developed in the
environment by a language compiler, such as C++.
Utility programs: those written to provide user
processing environments and make sophisticated use
of the operating system facilities.
System programs: those interact directly with
hardware, and often involve concurrent processing
with time constraints.

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 Required Effort
Given KDSI, thousand lines of deliverable code,
Required programmer-months:
application programs: PM = 2.4 x (KDSI)1.05
utility programs: PM = 3.0 x (KDSI)1.12
system programs: PM = 3.6 x (KDSI)1.20

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 Required Development Time
Required development time:
application programs: TDev = 2.5 x (PM)0.38
utility programs: TDev = 2.5 X (PM)0.35
system programs: TDev = 2.5 x (PM)0.32

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 Unit cost vs. size (assuming $5,000/PM)
80
system
70

60
Dollars per line of source code

50

40
utility
30

20 application

10
10 101 2
100 1000
3 10000
4
Software size in 1,000 lines of code

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 Required development time vs. size
60

application
50
Required development time in months

utility
40

system
30

20

10

0
10 1
10 100
2 1000
3 10000
4
Software size in 1,000 lines of source code

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 Productivity vs. size
0,03
30

0,02
20 application
Lines of code per prgrammer per day

(11.8)
utility
0,01
10
(5.8)
system (2.8)
0,00
00
10 101 100
2 1000
3 4
10000
Software size in 1,000 lines of source code
©J. C. Huang 2005 Estimation Slide 29 of 44
 Major Factors
Major factors that influence software cost:
• product size and complexity
• programmer ability
• available time
• required reliability
• level of technology

©J. C. Huang 2005 Estimation Slide 30 of 44

 How programmers spend their time.

Writing programs 13%

Reading programs and manuals 16%
Job communications 32%
Personal 13%
Miscellaneous 15%
Training 6%
Mail 5%
Based on Bell Lab Study conducted in 1964 on 70 programmers

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 Programmer’s Ability
Variations in programmers abilities
worst/best ratio
performance measure program #1 program # 2
debugging hours 28:1 26:1
CPU time 8:1 11:1
coding hours 16:1 25:1
program size 6:1 5:1
run time 5:1 13:1
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 Programmer’s Ability (continued)
By eliminating extreme performance in
both directions, a variability of 5 to 1 in
programmer productivity can be expected.

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 Available Time
Software projects require more total
effort if development time is
compressed or expanded from the
optimal time.

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 Available Time (continued)
According to Putnam, a schedule
compression of 0.86 will increase
required staff by a factor of 1.82.

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 Available Time (continued)
It is commonly agreed that there is a
limit beyond which a software project
cannot reduce its schedule by adding
more personnel and equipment. This
limit occurs roughly at 75% of the
normal schedule.

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 COCOMO Effort Multipliers
Product attributes
Required reliability 0.75 to 1.40
Data-base size 0.94 to 1.16
Product complexity 0.70 to 1.65

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 COCOMO Effort Multipliers (continued)

Computer attributes
Execution time constraint 1.00 to 1.66
Main storage constraint 1.00 to 1.56
Virtual machine volatility 0.87 to 1.30
Computer turn-around time 0.87 to 1.15

©J. C. Huang 2005 Estimation Slide 38 of 44

 COCOMO Effort Multipliers (continued)

Personnel attributes
Analyst capability 1.46 to 0.71
Programmer capability 1.42 to 0.70
Applications experience 1.29 to 0.82
Virtual machine experience 1.21 to 0.90
Programming language experience 1.14 to 0.95

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 COCOMO Effort Multipliers (continued)

Project attributes
Use of modern programming practices
1.24 to 0.82
Use of software tools 1.24 to 0.83
Required development schedule
1.23 to 1.00

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 Staffing Level Estimation
A software project typically starts with a
small group of capable people to do
planning and analysis, a larger, but still
small group to do architectural design. The
size of required personnel increases in each
successive phase, peaks at the
implementation and system testing phase,
and decreases in the maintenance phase.
©J. C. Huang 2005 Estimation Slide 41 of 44
 Staffing-Level Estimation
The personnel level of effort required
throughout the life cycle of a software
product can be approximated by the
following equation, which describes a
Rayleigh curve:

©J. C. Huang 2005 Estimation Slide 42 of 44

 Staffing-Level Estimation (continued)
(0.15Tdev+0.7t)2
0.15Tdev+0.7t -
FSP = PM( )e 0.5(Tdev)2
0.25(Tdev)2
where FSP is the no. of full-time software personnel required at time t,

PM is the estimated programmer-months for product

development, excluding planning and analysis, and

Tdev is the estimated development time.

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 Staffing-Level Estimation (continued)
FSP

Rayleigh curve

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 Skills most lacking in entry level programmers
• Express oneself clearly in English
• Develop and validate software requirements and
specifications
• Work within applications area
• Perform software maintenance
• Perform economic analyses
• Work with project management techniques
• Work in group
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