AN INTRODUCTION TO

PROBABILITY
Terms and Concepts of Probability
STATISTICS

The practice or science of collecting and

analyzing numerical data in large quantities,
especially for the purpose of inferring
proportions in a whole from those in a
representative sample.
 The field of Statistics is normally divided into
two: Descriptive and Inferential Statistics.

Descriptive statistics is a group of statistical

measurements that aims to provide the basic
characteristics of a data set through tables and
graphs and other descriptive measures such as
measures of central tendency, measures of position,
and measures of variation.
 Inferential statistics aims to infer or to
make interpretations by making a concluding
statement about the population based on the
result derived form a data set. Measures
commonly used in inferential statistics include
analysis of variance, t-test, Chi-square test,
correlation and regression analysis.
The Four Essential Processes in Statistics
1. Collection of Data
2.Organization and Presentation of Data
3.Analysis of Data
4.Interpretation of Data
*Data is a body of information or observations being
considered by the researcher. When the data is
processed, information, which is the basis for
decision making is produced.
1. Collection of Data- refers to the gathering
of related information such as (a) what is
useful and needed, (b) where to get
information, and (c) how to get
information.

2.Organization and Presentation of Data-

refers to the systematic way of organizing
data. It involves (a) collecting, (b)
classifying and arraying, and (c) presenting
data gathered in preparation to its analysis.
3. Analysis of Data- refers to extracting relevant
information from the data at hand. It involves
(a) comparison and contrast, (b) description, and
(c) statistical measurements to come up with
numerical values and qualitative summary as a
resulting conclusion.

4. Interpretation of Data- refers to the drawing

of logical statements form the analyzed
information. It involves (a) generalizing, (b)
forecasting, and (c) recommending solutions and
interventions about the study.
Different Ways of Classifying Data
• According to Nature
• According to Source
• According to Arrangement
• Quantitative data can be further classified
According to Measurement
Classifying Data According to Nature
Quantitative Data vs. Qualitative Data

Quantitative or numerical data are those obtained

from variables which are in the form of numbers,
e.g. age, height, weight, amount.

Qualitative or categorical data are those obtained

from variables which are in the form of categories,
characteristics, names or labels, e.g. gender, socio-
economic status, civil status.
Classifying Data According to Source
Primary Data vs. Secondary Data

Primary data are first-hand information, e.g. data

gathered from a survey, where the person who
collected the data is the one using it.

Secondary data are second-hand information, e.g.

information form newspapers or journals, economic
indicators. The data being used are collected by
another person or orgnization.
Classifying Data According to Arrangement

Ungrouped Data vs. Grouped Data

Ungrouped data are the data without any specific

order or arrangement. They are referred to as raw
data.

Grouped data are the data arranged or tabulated

and presented in an organized manner.
Classifying Data According to Measurement

Discrete data vs. Continuous Data

Discrete data are those obtained from counting

process where data are whole numbers, e.g.
household size.

Continuous data are those obtained through the

measuring process where data are values that may
be decimals or fractions, e.g. inflation rate, weight
in kilograms.
Data Collection Methods
1. Interview Method is the method by which data is
obtained through oral exchange of questions and
answers by the researcher and the respondents. This
method is taxing and time-consuming, but it provides
the flexibility of making follow-ups on the answers of the
respondents.
2. Questionnaire Method is the method where a set of
questions is provided by the researcher, and the data is
provided by the respondents by writing the responses to
the items on the questionnaire.
3. Document Method is the method where a researcher vails
information gathered and stored by individuals or
institutions, whether private or government, made available
to other researchers.
4. Observation Method is the method where data is
acquired and recorded through direct observation by the
researcher on an actual situation. It is relatively inexpensive.
5. Experiment Method is the method where data is also
gathered by the researcher himself just like the observations
method. However, the researcher is allowed to make
manipulations as required by the experimentation process. It
is time-consuming and expensive.
Ways of Presenting Data Gathered
1. Textual Form is where the data is exposed through printed or
spoken words, such as through printed or oral media.

2. Graphical Form is where data is organized and presented

through the use of various kinds of graphs. If facilitates
analyzing, summarizing and understanding voluminous set of
data. There are different types of graphs: line graph, bar
graph, histogram, pie graph, pictograph, cartograph, dot graph

3. Tabular Form is where data is arrayed in rows and columns.

PROBABILITY

Probability deals with the study of

randomness and uncertainty. It provides
methods for quantifying the chances or
likelihood of certain possible outcomes to
occur.
 What is the relation of
Probability and Statistics? Or
how is Probability related to
Statistics?
 Probability and Statistics are related
in an important way. It is a tool in
evaluating the reliability of inferences
about the population when you have
only sample information.
Types of Probability

Three different conceptual approaches of

studying probability theory:
1. the subjective and personalistic approach
2. the relative frequency or empirical
approach
3. the classical or a priori approach
1. Subjective Probability
A personal assessment of the likelihood of
occurrence of an event, based on all available
evidences.

Ex.
A doctor may use subjective probabilities to assess
the chances that a certain patient afflicted with a
rare disease will survive on operation.
2. Empirical Probability
Defined as the proportion of times that a
particular outcome occurs in a very large number
of observations and experiments. It is a relative
frequency of an event in past occurrences.

Ex.
If for every ten people who enter a department
store on a pay-day, three make at least one purchase.
 Probability Experiment
An experiment is the process by which an
observation or measurement is observed to
generate data. Experiments whose outcomes
cannot be predicted is called random
experiments.
Examples
• Tossing a coin
• Throwing two dice
• Examining a fuse
• Drawing two balls successively without replacement
from a bag that contains blue, red, & yellow balls
• Choosing a number from a set
 Sample Space
The sample space of an experiment,
denoted by S, is the set of all possible
outcomes of that experiment. Each outcome
in the sample space is called a sample point.
Types of Sample Space
1. Discrete Sample Space- sample space that
contains a finite number, or countably
infinite number of sample points.

Ex.
a. S = outcomes when tossing a pair of coins
= {TT, TH, HT, HH}
b. S = tossing a coin until a head appear
={H only}
2. Continuous Sample Space- a sample
space consisting of a set of real numbers
that contains at least 1 interval.

Ex.
a. S = measuring weights of chicken
= {x/0 < x 5 kg}
Sample Point
Each outcome in a sample space can
also be referred as a member or an
element.

Ex.
a. S = {head, tail} or = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
 Events
An event is any collection (subset) of
outcomes contained in the sample space. An
simple event is one that consists of exactly
one outcome, hence it cannot be decomposed.
On the other hand, an event is compound if it
consists of more that one outcome.

Ex. A = “selecting an ace at random” from a deck

of 52 cards.
Simple Events or
Compound Events
1. Experiment: Tossing a coin
A = getting a head
2.Experiment: Throwing 2 dice
A = getting a sum of 9
3.Experiment: Examining a fuse
whether it is defective
A = observing a defective fuse
4.Experiment: Drawing two balls
successively without replacement
from a bag that contains blue, red,
& yellow balls
A = a blue ball was selected but a
yellow ball is not
5.Experiment: Choosing a number
from a set {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8,
9, 10}
A = the number is odd
 3. Classical Probability
If n experiment can result in N equally likely
outcomes and an event A can result in n outcomes,
then the probability that A will occur is n(A)/n(S).

Where: n(A) = number of sample points in A

n(S) = number of sample points in the
sample space.
Ex 1. Experiment of rolling a die.

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} dots n(S) = 6

A = event that a value > 4 will occur n(A) = 2
Ex 1. Experiment of rolling a pair of dice.

S = {(1, 1) …(6,6)} n(S) = 36

A = sum is either 7 or 11 n(A) = 8
OPERATIONS
APPLIED TO
EVENTS
 The complement of an event A with
respect to S is the set of all elements of S
that not in A (Denoted by A’)

Ex.
S = {all even number between 5 and 20}
A= {10, 12, 14, 16, 18}
Then
A’= {6, 8}
 The intersection of two events A and B,
denoted by the symbol AB, is the event
containing all elements that are common to A
and B.

Ex.
A= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15}
B= {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16}
Then
AB= {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14}
 Two events A and B are mutually
exclusive if AB = , that is, if A and B
have no elements in common.

Ex.
A= {2, 4, 6}
B= {1, 3, 5}
Then
AB =
• Mutually exclusive events
Event A: Observe a prime number
Event B: Observe a composite number

• Not mutually exclusive events

Event A: Observe an even number
Event B: Observe a number greater than 3
 The union of two events A and B, denoted
by the symbol AB, is the event containing all
the elements that belong to A or B or both

Ex.
Let M= {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16}
N= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9}
Then
MN= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14, 16}
Remarks:
1. S and are also considered events
S- sure events
- impossible event

2. We can combine events to form new

events
MN = P, where P is the new event
A= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15}
B= {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18}
B = {all even number between 5 and 21}
P = {9, 11, 14, 16, 18, 19}
 AXIOMS OF
PROBABILITY
Axiom 1. For any event A, P(A) 0.

This axiom underscored that the chance of

occurring should be at least 0, so that the negative
probabilities are not allowed.
Axiom 2. P(S) = 1.

This axiom is saying that the maximum possible

probability of 1 is assigned to the sample space S.
Axiom 3.

This axiom indicates that the chance of at least

one event occurring is the sum of the chances of the
individual or simple events.
a. If is a finite collection of a mutually exclusive
events, then P( =
b. If is an infinite collection of mutually exclusive
events, then P(
PROPERTIES OF
PROBABILITY
Proposition 1. For any event A, P(A) = 1 – P(A’).

Proof:
Let n = 2 such that
Using axioms 2 & 3(a),
P(S) = 1 = P(AA’) = P(A) + P(A’)
It follows that
P(A) = 1 – P(A’).
Proposition 2. If A and B are mutually exclusive, then
P(AB) = 0.

Proof:
Since A and B are mutually exclusive, then AB
contains no outcomes. consequently, (AB)’ = S. Hence
by axiom 2, P[(AB)’] = 1.
Using proposition 1,
P(AB) = 1 – P[(AB)’]
P(AB) = 0
 When events A and B are mutually exclusive, Axiom
3 provides that
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B).

However when events A and B are mutually

exclusive, the probability of the union is given by
proposition 3.
Proposition 3. For any two events A and B, P(AB) = P(A)
+ P(B) – P(AB).

= ∪

A B = A (B A’)
Proof:
Suppose A and B are not mutually exclusive. Then A
and (B A’) are mutually exclusive. Furthermore A B =
A (B A’).
It follows that P(AB) = P[A(BA’)]
By axiom 3, P(AB) = P(A) + P(BA’).
Referring to the figure,
B = (BA) (BA’) with (BA) & (BA’) mutually exclusive.

Again by Axiom 3, P(B) = P(AB) + P(BA’).

Solving for P(BA’) = P(B) – P(BA)

P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB).
Some important propositions in probability.

1. For every event A, 0 P(A) 1.

2. P() = 0; impossible event has probability 0.
3. If A’ is the complement of A,
then P(A’) = 1 – P(A).
4. If A B, then P(A) P(B) and P(B – A) = P(A) – P(B).
5. If A = where are mutually exclusive events, then
P(A) = P(.
In particular, if A = S, then P(

6. For any events A and B, P(A) = P(AB) + P(AB’).

 Seatwork 1

A. Identify what is being asked from the following statements.

1. A test whose outcomes cannot be predicted.
2. The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment.
3. An element of a sample space.
4. A subset of a sample space or an experiment.
5. A unique sample space having no elements.
6-7. Classifications of events.
8-10. Types of Probability
B. Determine the probability of the following events.

1. Getting a sum of 10 when tossing 2 dice.

2. Getting no heads in tossing 2 coins.
3. Aces in a 52 deck of cards.
4. Getting an upturned face of 3 in a toss of die.
5. Getting a sum of 12 in a single throw of a pair of die.
Quiz 1
Given the following events. Apply the operations of an event and tell
whether mutually exclusive or not.

1. A = {1, a, 2, b, 3, c, 4, d, 5, e}
B = {a, b, c, 5, 6, 7, 8}
a. A’
b. B’
c. AB
d. AB
e. Mutually exclusive or not mutually exclusive.
f. draw a venn diagram
2. A = {even numbers between 3 and 31}
B = {numbers starting from 1 to 35}
a. A’
b. B’
c. AB
d. AB
e. Mutually exclusive or not mutually exclusive.
f. draw a venn diagram
3. A = {prime numbers between 1 and 25}
B = {odd numbers starting from 3 until 30}
a. A’
b. B’
c. AB
d. AB
e. Mutually exclusive or not mutually exclusive.
f. draw a venn diagram