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Lecture 3, Numerical Based On Population Forecasting

This document is a lecture on population forecasting methods for a Civil Engineering course. It discusses several methods for predicting future population, including arithmetic increase, geometric increase, incremental increase, and logistic curve methods. It provides examples of calculating population projections for years 2021, 2031 and 2041 using the different methods. It also lists learning outcomes related to understanding fundamental aspects and importance of various population forecasting methods.

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Shivam Sharma
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292 views

Lecture 3, Numerical Based On Population Forecasting

This document is a lecture on population forecasting methods for a Civil Engineering course. It discusses several methods for predicting future population, including arithmetic increase, geometric increase, incremental increase, and logistic curve methods. It provides examples of calculating population projections for years 2021, 2031 and 2041 using the different methods. It also lists learning outcomes related to understanding fundamental aspects and importance of various population forecasting methods.

Uploaded by

Shivam Sharma
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Program: B.

Tech, Civil Engineering, 6th Semester, 3rd year

CE-602: Environmental Engineering I


Topic: Numerical based on Population forecasting
Jul –Dec, 2020-21/Lecture No. 3

Mr. Priyank Goyal

Assistant Professor , Department of Civil


Engineering
CE 602 1
Content
• Introduction
• Numerical
• Learning Outcomes
• References

CE 602
2
Arithmetic increase Method
 Thus, it is assumed that the population is increasing at constant
rate.
 Mathematically,

CE 602
<SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4>
Geometrical increase Method

 Mathematically,

CE 602
<SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4>
Incremental increase Method

 Mathematically,

CE 602
<SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4>
Logistic curve Method

CE 602
<SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4>
Numerical
Problem.1: Predict the population for the year 2021, 2031, and 2041 from
the following population data.

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 7


Numerical
Solution:

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 8


Numerical

Population in year 2021 is, P2021 = 2585862 + 345463 x 1 = 2931325


Similarly, P2031 = 2585862 + 345463 x 2 = 3276788
P2041 = 2585862 + 345463 x 3 = 3622251

CE 602
<SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 9
Numerical
Problem.2: Considering data given in problem 1 predict the population for
the year 2021, 2031, and 2041 using geometrical progression method.

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 10


Numerical
Solution

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 11


Numerical
Geometric mean IG = (0.18 x 0.18 x 0.40 x 0.23 x 0.24)^1/5
= 0.235 i.e., 23.5%
Population in year 2021 is, P2021 = 2585862 x (1+ 0.235)^1 = 3193540
Similarly for year 2031 and 2041 can be calculated by,
P2031 = 2585862 x (1+ 0.235)^2 = 3944021
P2041 = 2585862 x (1+ 0.235)^3 = 4870866

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 12


Numerical
Problem.2: Considering data given in problem 1 predict the population for
the year 2021, 2031, and 2041 using incremental increase method.

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 13


Numerical
Solution:

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 14


Numerical
Solution:

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 15


Numerical
Problem:

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 16


Numerical
Problem:

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 17


Numerical

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 18


Numerical

Comparative graph method

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 19


Numerical
Problem:
The population of a city in three consecutive years i.e. 1991, 2001 and 2011 is 80,000;
250,000 and 480,000, respectively. Determine (a) The saturation population, (b) The
equation of logistic curve, (c) The expected population in 2021.

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 20


Numerical
Solution:

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 21


Numerical
Solution:

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 22


Numerical
Solution:

CE 602 <SELO: 1,5,9> <Reference No.: R3, R4> 23


Learning Outcomes
On completion of course the students will be able to:
• The students will be able to illustrate the fundamental aspects of
population forecasting.
• They will able to know the importance of various methods of PF.

CE 602 24
References
1. https://www.rgpv.ac.in/Uni/frm_ViewScheme.aspx
2. https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3
3. Water Supply Engineering by B.C. Punmia - Laxmi Publications
(P) Ltd. New Delhi
4. Water Supply & Sanitary Engg. by G.S. Birdi - Laxmi
Publications (P) Ltd. New Delhi
5. Water & Waste Water Technology by Mark J.Hammer - Prentice -
Hall of India, New Delhi

CE 602 25
CE-602 26

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