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01 Introduction

Meteorology is the study of atmospheric phenomena and weather forecasting. The document introduces basic meteorology concepts and forecasting methods, from simple persistence forecasts to modern numerical weather prediction using high-powered computers. It describes how meteorology benefits activities like agriculture, transport, and commerce by providing weather warnings and forecasts.

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ansari
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
30 views

01 Introduction

Meteorology is the study of atmospheric phenomena and weather forecasting. The document introduces basic meteorology concepts and forecasting methods, from simple persistence forecasts to modern numerical weather prediction using high-powered computers. It describes how meteorology benefits activities like agriculture, transport, and commerce by providing weather warnings and forecasts.

Uploaded by

ansari
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Introduction to Meteorology

and Weather Forecasting

Instructor: Dr. Mohd Khalid Ansari


Mail ID: [email protected]
Books
Core Texts:

 Atmosphere, Weather & Climate’. Barry, Roger G., and Chorley, Richard J; Routledge,
2003.

 Meteorology Today: An Introduction to Weather, Climate, and The Environment’, Ahrens,


C. Donald; Thomson/Brooks/Cole, 2003.

More Advanced Texts:

 Fundamentals of Weather and Climate. McIlveen, Robin; Chapman & Hall, 1992.

 The Physics of Atmospheres’. Houghton, J.; Cambridge University Press, 2002.

ENVI1400 : Meteorology and Forecasting : lecture 1 3


What we will learn with this lecture?
Introduce Basic Concepts Of Meteorology
Emphasis On Physical Processes Not Theoretical
Or Mathematical Treatments
Meteorology, Weather, & Climate
• Meteorology is the study of phenomena of the atmosphere
– includes the dynamics, physics, and chemistry of the
atmosphere. (from the Greek meteōros – ‘lofty’)
• More commonly thought of as restricted to the dynamics and
thermodynamics of the atmosphere as it affects human life.
Meteorology, Weather, & Climate
o Weather

• The state of the atmosphere; mainly with respect to its effects upon human activities.
Short term variability of the atmosphere (time scales of minutes to months).
Popularly thought of in terms of: temperature, wind, humidity, precipitation,
cloudiness, brightness, and visibility.

• A category of individual/combined atmospheric phenomena which describe the


conditions at the time of an observation.

o Climate

• Long term statistical description of the atmospheric conditions, averaged over a


specified period of time - usually decades.
Why Study Meteorology?
o Warning of severe weather

o Agriculture

 Timing of planting, harvesting, etc to avoid bad weather, hazards to livestock

o Transport & services

 Shipping, aviation, road gritting, flood warnings

o Commerce

 Should a supermarket order BBQs and icecream, or umbrellas?

November 14, 1854: A sudden storm devastated a joint British-French fleet near Balaklava in the Black Sea.
French astronomer Urbain Jean Joseph Le Verrier (1811-1877) demonstrated that telegraphed observations could have given the
ships a day to prepare.
In England, Capt. Robert FitzRoy (1805-1865) started the Meteorological Office as a small department of the board of trade. On
September 3rd 1860, 15 stations began reporting 8am observations. February 5,1861 started issuing storm warnings to ports.
What Do We Want To Know?

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Methods of Forecasting

• Persistence Method:
– Tomorrow will be much the same as today

Today’s Weather Tomorrow’s Forecast

Clear skies, 19C, low winds Clear skies, 19C, low winds

Works well when conditions change only slowly. Also surprisingly effective for general forecasts of
periods >10 days, for which most other – more advanced – methods lose all their skill. Several weeks of
hot sunny weather often followed by several more.

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Statistical methods

Simple statistics: climatology


• Given a long record of past weather on every day of the year, forecast most frequently observed
weather for day of interest.
Works well, provided the general conditions are similar to the ‘usual’ or most common conditions for the time of year.
Requires long records – many years – to provide reasonable statistics

Analog method
• Given a long record of the sequence of weather conditions, look for a past sequence that resembles
the last few days to weeks, and forecast whatever followed it.
Difficult to use effectively because of difficulty in finding a close match between current and past conditions.
Again, requires records going back many years.

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Trends:
• Estimate the speed at which features – fronts, pressure centres, etc – are moving. Allows estimation
of time of arrival.
• Requires measurements over a wide area.
• Applied over a period of a few hours this method is called NowCasting. Very effective use of rainfall
radar imagery.

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Physical Understanding

• An extensive set of measurements over a wide area, coupled with an


understanding of the physical processes allows general conditions to be
assessed and forecasts to be made for a wide area a day or two ahead.

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Physical Processes

• Thermal – atmospheric dynamics are ultimately driven by temperature gradients


arising from uneven solar heating
• Pressure gradient forces – immediate cause of horizontal motions
• Moisture – effect of water vapour content on air density, and release of latent heat
has a major impact on convection

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Numerical Weather Prediction

• Physical processes are reduced to a (simplified) set of equations that


describe changes of physical quantities in time & space. These are
initialized with latest observations and stepped forward in time to
produce a forecast.
• Requires:
– an extensive set of simultaneous measurements over a wide area (synoptic
observations) to initialize it
– Fast, powerful computer
– Adequate representation of the physical processes

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First numerical forecast made in 1922 by Lewis Fry Richardson.
Took several months, calculating by hand, to produce a 6-hour forecast.

It failed…badly!

But, it demonstrated the means of producing quantitative forecasts. Its failure has since been shown to be due to
the limited understanding of some atmospheric processes at the time.

L. F. Richardson’s computational grid: Pressure is


determined in squares marked ‘P’, momentum in
those marked ‘M’.
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First successful forecast: 1950 by
Jule Charney, Fjörtoft, and von
Neumann, using ENIAC.
A 24-hour forecast took 33 days to
produce, working day and night.

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Meteo-France MetOffice

Modern forecast models include the whole globe at a horizontal resolution of up to ~1° (~111km).
Region of interest modelled at ~10km resolution.

Forecasts made every 12 or 24 hours


for 0000 and 1200 GMT (sometimes
0600 and 1800) for up to 5 days
ahead.

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Summary

• Meteorology is important to a wide variety of activities


• A huge array of meteorological information is freely available
• With a basic understanding of the physical processes involved YOU can make timely
and accurate forecasts

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