CHAPTER 4:

PROBABILITY

EXPERIMENT, OUTCOMES, AND SAMPLE SPACE



Simple and Compound Events

EXPERIMENT, OUTCOMES, AND SAMPLE SPACE

Definition An experiment is a process that, when performed, results in one and only one of many observations. These observations are called that outcomes of the experiment. The collection of all outcomes for an experiment is called a sample space.
3

Table 4.1
Experiment
Toss a coin once Roll a die once Toss a coin twice Play lottery Take a test Select a student

Examples of Experiments, Outcomes, and Sample Spaces

Outcomes
Head, Tail 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 HH, HT, TH, TT Win, Lose Pass, Fail Male, Female S S S S S S

Sample Space
= = = = = = {Head, Tail} {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} {HH, HT, TH, TT} {Win, Lose} {Pass, Fail} {Male, Female}

Example 4-1
Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the experiment of tossing a coin once.

Figure 4.1

(a) Venn Diagram and (b) tree diagram for one toss of a coin.

Example 4-2
Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the experiment of tossing a coin twice.

Figure 4.2 a

Venn diagram for two tosses of a coin.

Figure 4.2 b

Tree diagram for two tosses of coin.

Example 4-3
Suppose we randomly select two persons from the members of a club and observe whether the person selected each time is a man or a woman. Write all the outcomes for this experiment. Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for this experiment.

10

Figure 4.3 a

Venn diagram for selecting two persons.

11

Figure 4.3 b

Tree diagram for selecting two persons.

12

Simple and Compound Events

Definition An event is a collection of one or more of the outcomes of an experiment.

13

Simple and Compound Events cont.

Definition An event that includes one and only one of the (final) outcomes for an experiment is called a simple event and is denoted by E i.

14

Example 4-4
Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two persons from the members of a club and observing whether the person selected each time is a man or a woman. Each of the final four outcomes (MM, MW, WM, WW) for this experiment is a simple event. These four events can be denoted by E1, E2, E3, and E4, respectively. Thus,
E1 = (MM ), E2 = (MW ), E3 = (WM ), and E4 = (WW )
15

Simple and Compound Events

Definition A compound event is a collection of more than one outcome for an experiment.

16

Example 4-5
Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two persons from the members of a club and observing whether the person selected each time is a man or a woman. Let A be the event that at most one man is selected. Event A will occur if either no man or one man is selected. Hence, the event A is given by A = {MW, WM, WW} Because event A contains more than one outcome, it is a compound event. The Venn diagram in Figure 4.4 gives a graphic presentation of compound event A.
17

Figure 4.4

Venn diagram for event A.

18

Example 4-6
In a group of a people, some are in favor of genetic engineering and others are against it. Two persons are selected at random from this group and asked whether they are in favor of or against genetic engineering. How many distinct outcomes are possible? Draw a Venn diagram and a tree diagram for this experiment. List all the outcomes included in each of the following events and mention whether they are simple or compound events. (a) Both persons are in favor of the genetic engineering. (b) At most one person is against genetic engineering. (c) Exactly one person is in favor of genetic engineering.
19

Solution 4-6
Let
   

 

F = a person is in favor of genetic engineering A = a person is against genetic engineering FF = both persons are in favor of genetic engineering FA = the first person is in favor and the second is against AF = the first is against and the second is in favor AA = both persons are against genetic engineering

20

Figure 4.5 a

Venn diagram.

21

Figure 4.5 b

Tree diagram.

22

Solution 4-6
Both persons are in favor of genetic engineering = { FF } It is a simple event. b) At most one person is against genetic engineering = { FF, FA, AF } It is a compound event. c) Exactly one person is in favor of genetic engineering = { FA, AF } It is a compound event.
a)
23

CALCULATING PROBABILITY
 

Two Properties of probability Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability

  

Classical Probability Relative Frequency Concept of Probability Subjective Probability

24

CALCULATING PROBABLITY
Definition Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that a specific event will occur.

25

Two Properties of Probability



First Property of Probability

 

0 0

P (Ei) P (A)

1 1

Second Property of Probability



P (Ei) = P (E1) + P (E2) + P (E3) +

=1

26

Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability

Classical Probability Definition Two or more outcomes (or events) that have the same probability of occurrence are said to be equally likely outcomes (or events).
27

Classical Probability
Classical Probability Rule to Find Probability
1 P ( Ei ) ! Total number of outcomes for the experiment Number of outcomes favorable to A P ( A) ! Total number of outcomes for the experiment

28

Example 4-7
Find the probability of obtaining a head and the probability of obtaining a tail for one toss of a coin.

29

Solution 4-7
1 1 P ( head ) ! ! ! .50 Total number of outcomes 2

Similarly,

1 P( tail) ! ! .50 2
30

Example 4-8
Find the probability of obtaining an even number in one roll of a die.

31

Solution 4-8
Number of outcomes included in A 3 P ( head ) ! ! ! .50 Total number of outcomes 6

32

Example 4-9
In a group of 500 women, 80 have played golf at lest once. Suppose one of these 500 women is randomly selected. What is the probability that she has played golf at least once?

33

Solution 4-9
80 P (selected woman has played golf at least once) ! ! .16 500

34

Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability cont.

Relative Concept of Probability Using Relative Frequency as an Approximation of Probability If an experiment is repeated n times and an event A is observed f times, then, according to the relative frequency concept of probability:

f P ( A) ! n

35

Example 4-10
Ten of the 500 randomly selected cars manufactured at a certain auto factory are found to be lemons. Assuming that the lemons are manufactured randomly, what is the probability that the next car manufactured at this auto factory is a lemon?
36

Solution 4-10
Let n denotes the total number of cars in the sample and f the number of lemons in n. Then,
n = 500 and f = 10

Using the relative frequency concept of probability, we obtain

10 f P (next car is a lemon) ! ! ! .02 n 500

37

Table 4.2
Car Good Lemon

Frequency and Relative Frequency Distributions for the Sample of Cars

f 490 10 n = 500

Relative frequency 490/500 = .98 10/500 = .02 Sum = 1.00

38

Law of Large Numbers

Definition Law of Large Numbers If an experiment is repeated again and again, the probability of an event obtained from the relative frequency approaches the actual or theoretical probability.

39

Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability

Subjective Probability Definition Subjective probability is the probability assigned to an event based on subjective judgment, experience, information and belief.
40

COUNTING RULE
Counting Rule to Find Total Outcomes If an experiment consists of three steps and if the first step can result in m outcomes, the second step in n outcomes, and the third in k outcomes, then
Total outcomes for the experiment = m n k
41

Example 4-12
Suppose we toss a coin three times. This experiment has three steps: the first toss, the second toss and the third toss. Each step has two outcomes: a head and a tail. Thus,
Total outcomes for three tosses of a coin = 2 x 2 x 2 = 8

The eight outcomes for this experiment are HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, and TTT
42

Example 4-13
A prospective car buyer can choose between a fixed and a variable interest rate and can also choose a payment period of 36 months, 48 months, or 60 months. How many total outcomes are possible?

43

Solution 4-13
Total outcomes = 2 x 3 = 6

44

Example 4-14
A National Football League team will play 16 games during a regular season. Each game can result in one of three outcomes: a win, a lose, or a tie. The total possible outcomes for 16 games are calculated as follows: Total outcomes = 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 = 316 = 43,046,721 One of the 43,046,721 possible outcomes is all 16 wins.
45

MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES

Suppose all 100 employees of a company were asked whether they are in favor of or against paying high salaries to CEOs of U.S. companies. Table 4.3 gives a two way classification of the responses of these 100 employees.

46

Table 4.3

Two-Way Classification of Employee Responses

Male Female

In Favor 15 4

Against 45 36

47

MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES

Table 4.4
Two-Way Classification of Employee Responses with Totals

Male Female Total

In Favor 15 4 19

Against 45 36 81

Total 60 40 100

48

MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES

Definition Marginal probability is the probability of a single event without consideration of any other event. Marginal probability is also called simple probability.

49

Table 4.5

Listing the Marginal Probabilities

In Favor Against Total (A ) (B ) Male (M ) Female (F ) Total 15 4 19

= .19

45 36 81
= .81

60 40 100

P (M ) = 60/100 = .60 P (F ) = 40/100 = .40

P (A ) = 19/100 P (B ) = 81/100

50

MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES cont.

Read as given

P ( in favor | male)
The event whose probability is to be determined This event has already occurred

51

MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES cont.

Definition Conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur given that another has already occurred. If A and B are two events, then the conditional probability A given B is written as P(A|B) and read as the probability of A given that B has already occurred.
52

Example 4-15
Compute the conditional probability P ( in favor | male) for the data on 100 employees given in Table 4.4.

53

Solution 4-15
Male In Favor 15
Males who are in favor

Against 45

Total 60
Total number of males

P (in avor | male) !

umber o males ho are in avor 15 ! ! .25 Total number o males 60

54

Figure 4.6
Tree Diagram.
Thi eve ha already ccurred

fi d he We are pr babili y f hi eve

Required pr babili y

55

Example 4-16
For the data of Table 4.4, calculate the conditional probability that a randomly selected employee is a female given that this employee is in favor of paying high salaries to CEOs.

56

Solution 4-16
In Favor 15 4 19
Females who are in favor Total number of employees who are in favor

umber o emales ho are in avor P ( emale | in avor) ! Total number o employees ho are in avor 4 ! ! .2105 19
57

Figure 4.7
Thi e e ha already ccurred

Tree diagram.

We are fi d he pr babili y f hi e e

Required pr babili y

58

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Definition Events that cannot occur together are said to be mutually exclusive events.

59

Example 4-17
Consider the following events for one roll of a die:
A= an even number is observed= {2, 4, 6} B= an odd number is observed= {1, 3, 5} C= a number less than 5 is observed= {1, 2, 3, 4}

Are events A and B mutually exclusive? Are events A and C mutually exclusive?
60

Solution 4-17
Figure 4.8
Mutually exclusive events A and B.

61

Solution 4-17
Figure 4.9
Mutually nonexclusive events A and C.

62

Example 4-18
Consider the following two events for a randomly selected adult:
Y = this adult has shopped on the Internet at least once N = this adult has never shopped on the Internet

Are events Y and N mutually exclusive?

63

Solution 4-18
Figure 4.10
Mutually exclusive events Y and N.

64

INDEPENDENT VERSUS DEPENDENT EVENTS

Definition Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the occurrence of the other. In other words, A and B are independent events if either P (A | B ) = P (A ) or P (B | A ) = P (B )
65

Example 4-19
Refer to the information on 100 employees given in Table 4.4. Are events female (F ) and in favor (A ) independent?

66

Solution 4-19
Events F and A will be independent if P (F ) = P (F | A ) Otherwise they will be dependent. From the information given in Table 4.4 P (F ) = 40/100 = .40 P (F | A ) = 4/19 = .2105 Because these two probabilities are not equal, the two events are dependent.
67

Example 4-20
A box contains a total of 100 CDs that were manufactured on two machines. Of them, 60 were manufactured on Machine I. Of the total CDs, 15 are defective. Of the 60 CDs that were manufactured on Machine I, 9 are defective. Let D be the event that a randomly selected CD is defective, and let A be the event that a randomly selected CD was manufactured on Machine I. Are events D and A independent?

68

Solution 4-20
From the given information, P (D ) = 15/100 = .15 P (D | A ) = 9/60 = .15 Hence, P (D ) = P (D | A ) Consequently, the two events are independent.
69

Table 4.6

Two-Way Classification Table

Defective (D ) Machine I (A ) Machine II (B ) Total 9 6 15

Good (G ) 51 34 85

Total 60 40 100

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Two Important Observations



Two events are either mutually exclusive or independent.



Mutually exclusive events are always dependent. Independent events are never mutually exclusive.

Dependents events may or may not be mutually exclusive.

71

COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
Definition The complement of event A, denoted by and is read as A bar or A complement , is the event that includes all the outcomes for an experiment that are not in A.

72

Figure 4.11

Venn diagram of two complementary events.

73

Example 4-21
In a group of 2000 taxpayers, 400 have been audited by the IRS at least once. If one taxpayer is randomly selected from this group, what are the two complementary events for this experiment, and what are their probabilities?

74

Solution


The complementary events for this experiment are

 

A = the selected taxpayer has been audited by the IRS at least once = the selected taxpayer has never been audited by the IRS

The probabilities of the complementary events are: P (A) = 400/2000 = .20 P ( ) = 1600/2000 = .80
75

Figure 4.12

Venn diagram.

76

Example 4-22
In a group of 5000 adults, 3500 are in favor of stricter gun control laws, 1200 are against such laws, and 300 have no opinion. One adult is randomly selected from this group. Let A be the event that this adult is in favor of stricter gun control laws. What is the complementary event of A? What are the probabilities of the two events?
77

Solution 4-22


The two complementary events are

 

A = the selected adult is in favor of stricter gun control laws = the selected adult either is against such laws or has no opinion

The probabilities of the complementary events are: P (A) = 3500/5000 = .70 P ( ) = 1500/5000 = .30
78

Figure 4.13

Venn diagram.

79

INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND THE MULTIPLICATION RULE

 

Intersection of Events Multiplication Rule

80

Intersection of Events
Definition Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space. The intersection of A and B represents the collection of all outcomes that are common to both A and B and is denoted by A and B
81

Figure 4.14
A

Intersection of events A and B.

B A and B

Intersection of A and B
82

Multiplication Rule
Definition The probability of the intersection of two events is called their joint probability. It is written as P (A and B ) or P (A B )

83

INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND THE MULTIPLICATION RULE

Multiplication Rule to Find Joint Probability The probability of the intersection of two events A and B is P (A and B ) = P (A )P (B |A )

84

Example 4-23
Table 4.7 gives the classification of all employees of a company given by gender and college degree.

85

Table 4.7

Classification of Employees by Gender and Education

Male (M ) Female (F ) Total

College Graduate (G ) 7 4 11

Not a College Graduate (N ) 20 9 29

Total 27 13 40

86

Example 4-23
If one of these employees is selected at random for membership on the employee management committee, what is the probability that this employee is a female and a college graduate?

87

Solution 4-23
Calculate the intersection of event F and G P P P P (F and G ) = P (F )P (G |F ) (F ) = 13/40 (G |F ) = 4/13 (F and G ) = (13/40)(4/13) = .100

88

Figure 4.15
Females

Intersection of events F and G.

College graduates

Females and college graduates

89

Figure 4.16

Tree diagram for joint probabilities.

90

Example 4-24
A box contains 20 DVDs, 4 of which are defective. If 2 DVDs are selected at random (without replacement) from this box, what is the probability that both are defective?

91

Solution 4-24
Let us define the following events for this experiment:
G1 = event that the first DVD selected is good D1 = event that the first DVD selected is defective G2 = event that the second DVD selected is good D2 = event that the second DVD selected is defective

The probability to be calculated is

P P P P (D1 and D2) = P (D1 )P (D2 |D1 ) (D1) = 4/20 (D2 |D1) = 3/19 (D1 and D2) = (4/20)(3/19) = .0316

92

Figure 4.17

Selecting two DVDs.

93

Multiplication Rule cont.

Calculating Conditional Probability If A and B are two events, then,
P ( A and B ) P ( A and B ) P ( B | A) ! and P ( A | B ) ! P ( A) P( B)

given that P (A )

0 and P (B )

0.

94

Example 4-25
The probability that a randomly selected student from a college is a senior is .20, and the joint probability that the student is a computer science major and a senior is .03. Find the conditional probability that a student selected at random is a computer science major given that he/she is a senior.
95

Solution 4-25


Let us define the following two events:

 

A = the student selected is a senior B = the student selected is a computer science major

From the given information, P (A) = .20 and P (A and B) = .03 Hence, P (B | A ) = .03/.20 = .15
96

Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

Multiplication Rule to Calculate the Probability of Independent Events The probability of the intersection of two independent events A and B is P (A and B ) = P (A )P (B )

97

Example 4-26
An office building has two fire detectors. The probability is .02 that any fire detector of this type will fail to go off during a fire. Find the probability that both of these fire detectors will fail to go off in case of a fire.

98

Solution 4-26
Let
A = the first fire detector fails to go off during a fire B = the second fire detector fails to go off during a fire

Then, the joint probability of A and B is P (A and B ) = P (A) P (B ) = (.02)(.02) = .0004

99

Example 4-27
The probability that a patient is allergic to penicillin is .20. Suppose this drug is administered to three patients.
a) Find the probability that all three of them are

allergic to it. b) Find the probability that at least one of the them is not allergic to it.

100

Solution
a)

Let A, B, and C denote the events the first, second and third patients, respectively, are allergic to penicillin. Hence,
P (A and B and C ) = P (A ) P (B ) P (C ) = (.20) (.20) (.20) = .008

101

Solution
b)

Let us define the following events:

G = all three patients are allergic H = at least one patient is not allergic

  

P (G ) = P (A and B and C ) = .008 Therefore, using the complementary event rule, we obtain P (H ) = 1 P (G ) = 1 - .008 = .992
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Figure 4.18

Tree diagram for joint probabilities.

103

Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

Joint Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events The joint probability of two mutually exclusive events is always zero. If A and B are two mutually exclusive events, then P (A and B ) = 0

104

Example 4-28
Consider the following two events for an application filed by a person to obtain a car loan:
A = event that the loan application is approved R = event that the loan application is rejected

What is the joint probability of A and R?

105

Solution 4-28
The two events A and R are mutually exclusive. Either the loan application will be approved or it will be rejected. Hence, P (A and R ) = 0

106

UNION OF EVENTS AND THE ADDITION RULE

Definition Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space. The union of events A and B is the collection of all outcomes that belong to either A or B or to both A and B and is denoted by A or B
107

Example 4-29
A senior citizen center has 300 members. Of them, 140 are male, 210 take at least one medicine on a permanent basis, and 95 are male and take at least one medicine on a permanent basis. Describe the union of the events male and take at least one medicine on a permanent basis.
108

Solution 4-29


Let us define the following events:

M = a senior citizen is a male F = a senior citizen is a female A = a senior citizen takes at least one medicine B = a senior citizen does not take any medicine

The union of the events male and take at least one medicine includes those senior citizens who are either male or take at least one medicine or both. The number of such senior citizen is 140 + 210 95 = 255
109

Table 4.8
A 95 115 210 B 45 45 90 Total 140 160 300

M F Total

Counted twice

110

Figure 4.19

Union of events M and A.

Shaded area gives the union of events M and A, and includes 255 senior citizen
111

Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

Addition Rule Addition Rule to Find the Probability of Union of Events The portability of the union of two events A and B is
P (A or B ) = P (A ) + P (B) P (A and B )
112

Example 4-30
A university president has proposed that all students must take a course in ethics as a requirement for graduation. Three hundred faculty members and students from this university were asked about their opinion on this issue. Table 4.9 gives a two-way classification of the responses of these faculty members and students. Find the probability that one person selected at random from these 300 persons is a faculty member or is in favor of this proposal.
113

Table 4.9

Two-Way Classification of Responses

Favor Faculty Student Total 45 90 135

Oppose 15 110 125

Neutral 10 30 40

Total 70 230 300

114

Solution 4-30
Let us define the following events:
A = the person selected is a faculty member B = the person selected is in favor of the proposal

From the information in the Table 4.9,

P (A ) = 70/300 = .2333 P (B ) = 135/300 = .4500 P (A and B) = P (A) P (B | A ) = (70/300)(45/70) = .1500

Using the addition rule, we have

P (A or B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) P (A and B ) = .2333 + .4500 .1500 = .5333
115

Example 4-31
A total of 2500 persons, 1400 are female, 600 are vegetarian, and 400 are female and vegetarian. What is the probability that a randomly selected person from this group is a male or vegetarian?

116

Solution 4-31
Let us define the following events:
F = the randomly selected person is a female M = the randomly selected person is a male V = the randomly selected person is a vegetarian N = the randomly selected person is a non-vegetarian.

P ( M or V ) ! P ( M )  P (V )  P ( M and V ) 1100 600 200 !   2500 2500 2500 ! .44  .24  .08 ! .60
117

Table 4.10

Two-Way Classification Table

Vegetarian (V) Nonvegetarian (N) Total Female (F) Male (M) Total 400 200 600 1000 900 1900 1400 1100 2500

118

Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events

Addition Rule to Find the Probability of the Union of Mutually Exclusive Events The probability of the union of two mutually exclusive events A and B is P (A or B ) = P (A ) + P (B )

119

Example 4-32
A university president has proposed that all students must take a course in ethics as a requirement for graduation. Three hundred faculty members and students from this university were asked about their opinion on this issue. The following table, reproduced from Table 4.9 in Example 4-30, gives a two-way classification of the responses of these faculty members and students.
120

Table 4.9

Two-Way Classification of Responses

Favor Faculty Student Total 45 90 135

Oppose 15 110 125

Neutral 10 30 40

Total 70 230 300

121

Example 4-32
What is the probability that a randomly selected person from these 300 faculty members and students is in favor of the proposal or is neutral?

122

Figure 4.20

Venn diagram of mutually exclusive events.

123

Solution 4-32
Let us define the following events:
F = the person selected is in favor of the proposal N = the person selected is neutral

From the given information,

P (F ) = 135/300 = .4500 P (N ) = 40/300 = .1333

Hence,
P (F or N ) = P (F ) + P (N ) = .4500 + .1333 = .5833
124

Example 4-33
Consider the experiment of rolling a die twice. Find the probability that the sum of the numbers obtained on two rolls is 5, 7, or 10.

125

Table 4.11
1 First Roll of the Die 1 2 3 4 5 6 (1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)

Two Rolls of a Die

Second Roll of the Die 2 (1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2) 3 (1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3) 4 (1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4) 5 6 (1,5) (1,6) (2,5) (2,6) (3,5) (3,6) (4,5) (4,6) (5,5) (5,6) (6,5) (6,6)
126

Solution 4-33
P (sum is 5 or 7 or 10) = P (sum is 5) + P (sum is 7) + P (sum is 10) = 4/36 + 6/36 + 3/36 = 13/36 = .3611

127

Example 4-34
The probability that a person is in favor of genetic engineering is .55 and that a person is against it is .45. Two persons are randomly selected, and it is observed whether they favor or oppose genetic engineering.
a) b)

Draw a tree diagram for this experiment Find the probability that at least one of the two persons favors genetic engineering.
128

Solution 4-34
a) Let

F = a person is in favor of genetic engineering A = a person is against genetic engineering The tree diagram in Figure 4.21 shows these four outcomes and their probabilities.

129

Figure 4.21

Tree diagram.

130

Solution
b)

P ( at least one person favors) = P (FF or FA or AF ) = P (FF ) + P (FA ) + P (AF ) = .3025 + .2475 + .2475 = .7975

131