APPAREL

PRODUCTION
AND
PLANNING
Assignment 1
CONTROL Presentation By:
Palak Aggarwal
Samragyi Pandey
Shivani Priya
Content:
• What is fashion forecasting?
• Drivers of Fashion change
• Importance of Fashion Forecasting
• Forecasting Fundamentals
• Forecasting principles
• Forecasting categories
• Forecasting errors
• Conclusion
What is
Fashion
Forecasting?
Fashion forecasting is the prediction of
mood, behavior and buying habits of the
consumer. It is no longer a question of
identifying your customers by age,
geography or income, but looking into
how and why they buy, based on their
mood, beliefs and the occasion.
drivers of
Fashion change
• Different Seasons
• Resort in Winter
• Fashion Week
• Fashion Calendar
• Fall
• Winter and Holiday
 importance of
Fashion
Forecasting?
Fashion forecasting has fast become one of the most important weapons over
time in a retailer’s competitive market. In a fast moving and crowded
marketplace, identifying ‘what’s hot and what’s not’ is crucial in staying one
step ahead of the competition.
Fashion forecasters predict the collection of silhouettes, colors, textures,
fabrics, graphics, prints, footwear, accessories that will be the forthcoming
trends on the runway and in retail stores from season to season. By examining
new, emerging trends across all industries and meticulous considerations they
arrive at conclusions to see how they may influence future fashion trends.

The World Global Style Network, commonly known as WGSN is one of the
leading trend forecasting companies globally. WGSN is an invaluable tool that
predicts the trends taking hold for fashion consumers around the world.
how to do
Fashion
Forecasting?
1. Identify past trends
2. Look for patterns in the data
3. Assess the difference between past
forecasts and actual consumer behavior
4. Determine your hypothesis
5. Create a forecasting model
what isLong term forecasting
The act of examining and evaluating patterns that can be found by searching a
number of information sources is known as long-term forecasting. It is a trend
that persists for more than two years. Long-term forecasting looks for significant
shifts in both domestic and global demographics, changes in the fashion industry
and market structures, consumer expectations, values, and purchasing impulses,
new technological and scientific advancements, and changes in the political,
diplomatic, and cultural alliances between specific nations. Any changes in
Demographic and psycgrophic that are to affect the consumers needs and which
will influence a company’s business and particular Niche market are determined.
what is
Short term forecasting
Short-term forecasting focuses on current events both domestically and
internationally as well as pop culture in order to identify possible trends that
can be communicated to the customer through the seasonal color palette,
fabric, and silhouette stories. It gives fashion a modern twist to a classic look
that intrigues our eyes. Some important areas to follow when scanning the
environment are: current events, art, sports, science and technology. Short-term
forecasting can also be considered fad forecasting.
patterns
Fashion
forecasting
Fashion
A fashion cycle is the term used to describe the process that

cycle
a type of fashion goes through. The fashion first gains mass
acceptance and popularity from the consumers and then
with time, the tastes and preferences of the consumers’
ebbs, which causes the fashion to lose that acceptance and
popularity.

The fashion cycle is usually depicted as a bell shaped curve

with 5 stages:
1. Introduction
2. Rise in popularity
3. Peak of popularity
4. Decline in popularity
5. Rejection
Introduce a
fashion
Most new styles are introduced in the high level.
• Designers create the designs with few limitations on creativity,
quality of raw material or amount of fine workmanship.
• The create new apparel and accessory style by changing elements
like line shape color ect…
• Product costs are high and only few can afford.
• Production in small quantity gives the designer more freedom,
flexibility.
• New products are shown to retail buyers and press.
• At the first stage of cycle, fashion implies only style and newness.
• Celebrities, TV stars, models buy these clothes as they want to
wear them in some events.
Increase in popularity:
• When new styles are seen worn by celebrities on TV or magazines
they attract the attention of the general public.
• Viewers may wish to buy the new styles but perhaps cannot afford
them.
• Manufactures use less expensive fabric and modify the designs to
sell in low price.
• Some companies also do imitation of designer originals at low
prices.
• High priced designers now have secondary sales line which sell at
lower prices so they are able to sell adoptions of their original
designs in great quantity.
Increase in popularity:
• When fashion is at height of popularity it may be in such
demand that more manufactures copy it or produce adaptations
of it at many price levels.

Decline in popularity:
• After so many designs copies are mass produced, people get
tired of that style and begin to look for something new.
• Consumers still wear garments in style but they don’t buy them
at regular prices.
• Retail stores put declining styles on the sale rack.
Rejection of a style:
• In the past fashion cycle some consumers must have
already turned to new look.
• The rejection of a style just because it is out of
fashion is called consumers obsolescence.
Fashion
theory
Fashion Theory is a theory that explains
the effect of Fashion to the Society. A
Fashion theory also explain the origin of
Fashion and how and why it keeps
changing with time.
Trickle down theory
Trickle Down Theory:
Fashion begins at the top of the class structure & spreads downward, slowly,
through the class structure. The people of the upper class display their wealth
by participating in an extravagant lifestyle, including wearing apparel made of
expensive modes of production and using costly materials. One person’s style
is towards imitation; the other’s is towards differentiation.
Source of fashion ideas.
> designers catered to wealthy
Fashion leaders.
> highly visible elite served as models for lower class
Direction.
> down from elite class to working class
Trickle down theory
Simmel’s 3 Stages of Fashion:
1. The elite class differentiated itself through fashion.
2. The adjacent class imitated the look.
3. The elite class moved to adopt a new fashion in an attempt
to maintain the differentiation.
The Source of fashion ideas:
Designers cater to wealthy clients with a task for
conspicuous consumption & the leisure to pursue fashion.
Couture designer fashion is expensive and it is affordable by
only a few people.
Those designs are copied again and again at lower prices
until they have been seen often by the conservative buyers.
Trickle down theory
The Fashion Leaders:
Their are the fashion leaders who creat a new fashion or style and everybody try to follow
that fashion or style. Fashion leaders promote the fashion movement. A fashion leader
refers to an individual or corporation that is taken as a trend setter in the fashion industry.
Usually, such an organisation or products by such individuals attract high revenues and
admiration from other industry players. Fashion innovativeness is a characteristic of
fashion leaders who have the tendency to buy a new fashion earlier than other consumers.
While anyone can be a fashion leader.
• Confidence to start or accept new fashions
• Small number who dare to be different
• Trendsetters
• Noticed and imitated
• First to discover and display (wear) new styles
Trickle up theory
Trickle up Theory of fashion suggests that the flow of fashion moves upwards
from the poor to the wealthy or from the lower class to the upper class. It is
opposite to the trickle-down effect. Pertaining to the theory that change and
information moves upward in a hierarchy.
• Starts with young trendsetters.
• May be lower income groups.
• Fashion defined by street wear.
• Examples may include:
• Tattooing, body piercing, “grunge” looks
Trickle across theory
Fashion is a social process, likely to occur in times of rapid change. Its the notion
that the adoption of a particular fashion will spread horizontally within several
socioeconomic classes at the same time. The theory of fashion adoption that states
that fashions move horizontally between similar social classes rather than vertically
from one level to another. Another term for this is mass-market theory. Horizontal
Flow Theory Horizontal Flow Theory (cont.) Members of each social group look at
the leaders of their own group for fashion trends. The social classes stick within their
own people, and don’t branch out to look for fashion trends. A leader within a group
of peers influences the others with their fashion decisions. Leaders and Followers.
• Modern communications bring fashion from around the world into our homes
instantly.
• Many separate markets have developed to various age ranges, life style, tastes.
• Various designer and manufacturer labels appeal to various market segments at
different price points.
• Mass production means that many different styles can be accepted at a same
time.
Fashion
A fashion pendulum swing is a movement of a specific

pendulum
fashion design or style from one extreme point to another
extreme point. In this process, once fashion design reaches
its extreme point, it starts moving back towards the
opposite trend. Because of this property, fashion design
never takes an inertia position or becomes stagnant or
inactive but rather keeps moving.
 What is
Forecasting error?
One way to check the quality of the demand forecast is to calculate
its forecast accuracy, also called forecast error. The forecast
accuracy calculation shows the deviation of the actual demand from
the forecasted demand. If we can calculate the level of error in our
previous demand forecasts, we can factor this into future ones and
make the relevant adjustments to our planning.
Two of the most common forecast accuracy / error calculations are
MAD – the Mean Absolute Deviation and MAPE – the Mean
Absolute Percent Error.
MAD forecasting
calculation
A common way to work out forecast error is to calculate the Mean
Absolute Deviation (MAD). This shows the deviation of forecasted
demand from actual demand, in units.
The MAD calculation takes the absolute value of the forecast errors
(difference between actual demand and the forecast) and averages them
over the forecasted time periods. ‘Absolute value’ means that even when
the difference between the actual demand and forecasted demand is a
negative number, it becomes a positive. So 25 divided by 4 is 6.25.
 MAPE forecasting
calculation
Another fairly simple way to calculate forecast error is to find the Mean
Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of your forecast. Statistically MAPE is defined
as the average of percentage errors. The MAPE formula consists of two parts:
M and APE. The formula for APE is the difference between you actual and
forecasted demand as a percentage:

With APE calculated for each period, you then calculate the mean of all
percentage errors.
CASE STUDY
ON LEVI'S
Levi's went with the concept of 'What's old is new
again'. With this concept they brought back the iconic
1967 Type III Trucker Jacket in 2017 under the name
of Levi's trucker jacket with Jacquard.
why did levi's return to
the old times?
• Chip Bergh, in September 2011, basically went on listening tour, spending
an hour with each of the company's top 60 executives.
• Some questions that he e-mailed them beforehand:
• What are three things we should not change?
• What are three things that we absolutely must change?
• He came to the conclusion that, people are moving towards the other brand
due to lack of creativity and new trends in Levi's.
TREND FORECASTING
ANALYSIS
• It was then, Bregh decided to introduce the Levi's Commuter Tucker Jacket
with Jacquard as people want to make life easier, by staying connected to
the digital world.
• Then he collaborated with JACQUARD which was owned by GOOGLE.
• Serving the commuter community and beyond it to those who just don't like
their smart phones out in general.
• Bergh said "you can keep your phone in your pocket and your eyes on the
world around you, staying connected without being distracted."
 SALES
FORECASTING
The Levi's Trucker jacket with Jacquard is sold at

Classic Trucker - $198 - 15130.96 INR Sherpa Trucker $248-18951.91 INR

 SALES
•
• FORECASTING
It is a new type of wearable.
Innovative, gives more value to the product and taking back more loyality.
• Delights the customers.
•
ANALYSIS
This new technology will be a new revolution in the industry, it will be a game changer for
clothing industry and the technology field.
• Technology adaption may boost sales.
• Lets the wearers control various functions on their smartphone. (has a touch interactive patch on
its cuff).
• The goal is to allow electronics to disappear into the fabric of daily life, "getting the technology
out of the way and making interactions more natural and more seamless.
• It was targeted at people who transport by bike and cycle.
• Bike riders due to reflected strips and not to get distracted while riding.
 Conclusion
By this time, you already know why fashion forecasting is important. Every step a brand
or a business takes is a precisely calculated step. For this kind of planning, they need to
understand and have an idea of what might and might not work in the future (both long
term and short term). Fashion forecasting helps them with this, they provide all the
information a brand needs on the upcoming trends and the brands use this data to plan out
their next designs.
Thank
You