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Dempster Shafer Theory

The Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) is a generalization of Bayesian probability that was developed by Arthur Dempster in 1967 and Glenn Shafer in 1976. DST allows one to combine evidence from different sources and obtain a degree of belief (represented by a belief function) for some hypothesis. It is an alternative to probability theory that can model uncertainty and ignorance. DST uses belief, plausibility, and combination rules to quantify uncertainty from multiple pieces of evidence and reduce ignorance as more evidence is obtained. The theory represents uncertainty over a set of possible outcomes rather than single outcomes like Bayesian probability.

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277 views19 pages

Dempster Shafer Theory

The Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) is a generalization of Bayesian probability that was developed by Arthur Dempster in 1967 and Glenn Shafer in 1976. DST allows one to combine evidence from different sources and obtain a degree of belief (represented by a belief function) for some hypothesis. It is an alternative to probability theory that can model uncertainty and ignorance. DST uses belief, plausibility, and combination rules to quantify uncertainty from multiple pieces of evidence and reduce ignorance as more evidence is obtained. The theory represents uncertainty over a set of possible outcomes rather than single outcomes like Bayesian probability.

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321126510L03 kurmapu dharaneeswar
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Dempster Shafer

Theory
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Dempster Shafer Theory
Dempster Shafer Theory

Witness statement : “I’m fairly sure that


the car was either brown or black.
Probably black, though it could have
been brown. I could be wrong though.
What could be the events we can draw from
witness’s vague statement ?

General
- car was black
probability - car was brown Dempster
theory Shafer
- car was neither black nor brown theory
- car was either black or brown
An Overview of Dempster Shafer Theory

• The Dempster-Shafer theory, also known as the theory of


belief functions, is a generalization of the Bayesian theory
of subjective probability.

A P. Dempster • Dempster Shafer Theory was given by Arthure P.Dempster


in 1967 and his student Glenn Shafer in 1976.

• DST is an evidence theory, it combines all possible


outcomes of the problem. Hence it is used to solve problems
where there may be a chance that a different evidence will
lead to some different result.  

Glenn Shafer
An Overview of Dempster Shafer Theory

This theory was released because of following reason:-

• Bayesian theory is only concerned about single evidences.


• Bayesian probability cannot describe ignorance.
• It is an alternative for probability theory for uncertanity

Bayes Theorem
Dempster Shafer Theory
• The uncertainty in this model is given by:-

Consider all possible outcomes.

• Belief will lead to believe in some possibility by bringing out some evidence.
• Plausibility will make evidence compatible with possible outcomes.
Dempster Shafer Theory

We know about the negation property :-

Pl(A) = 1 - Bel(Not A)
Pl(Not A) = 1 - Bel(A)
Dempster Shafer Theory

What about
Bel(A and B),
Bel(A or B),
Pl(A and B),
Pl(A or B) ?
Dempster Shafer Theory

Let us assume:-

Bel(A) = (m3 + m6 + m9)


Bel(B) = (m1 + m2 + m3)
Pl(A) = (m2 + m5 + m8 + m3 + m6 + m9)
Pl(B) = (m1 + m2 + m3 + m4 + m5 + m6)
Dempster Shafer Theory
Dempster Shafer Theory

Characteristics of Dempster Shafer Theory: 

• It will arrange the ignorance part such that


probability of all events aggregate to 1.

• Ignorance is reduced in this theory by adding


more and more evidences.

• Combination rule is used to combine various


types of possibilities.
Dempster Shafer Theory

Advantages: 

•As we add more information, uncertainty interval reduces.


•DST has much lower level of ignorance.
•Diagnose hierarchies can be represented using this.
•Person dealing with such problems is free to think about evidences.

Disadvantages: 

•In this, computation effort is high, as we have to deal with 2n of sets.
Thank You

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