Probability and Statistics

BAKU HIGHER OIL

SCHOOL
• The course of “Probability and Statistics”
includes the following topics:
• Basic probability concepts.
• Sample space and events. Combined events and
Venn diagrams.
• Rules of probability. Mutually exclusive events.
• Probability tree diagrams.
• Conditional probability. Independent events.
Bayes’ theorem.
• Counting rules. Permutations. Combinations.
 
• Descriptive statistics.
• Describing data sets. Presenting data in tables and
charts.
• Frequency tables and graphs. Relative frequency tables
and graphs.
• Grouped data, Histograms, Ogives, Stem and Leaf plots.
• Summarizing data sets. Measures of central tendency:
sample mean, sample median, sample mode.
• Measures of spread: sample variance and sample
standard deviation.
• Sample Percentiles and Box plots.
• Random variables and Probability
Distributions.
• Discrete Probability Distributions.
• Expectation, median and variance of a discrete
random variable.
• The Binomial Distribution. Calculating Probabilities
for the Binomial Distribution. Using Binomial
Tables.
• The Poisson Distribution. Conditions for modelling
data with a Poisson distribution.
• Continuous Probability Distributions. The Normal
Distribution.
• Confidence interval estimation.
• Basic properties of confidence intervals.
• Confidence interval estimation for the mean when the
variance is known.
• Confidence interval estimation for the mean when the
variance is unknown.
• Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing.
• Statistical Hypotheses: General Concepts.
• Testing a Statistical Hypothesis. One- and Two-Tailed
Tests.
• Single Sample: Tests Concerning a Single Mean (Variance
Known). Relationship to Confidence Interval Estimation.
• Single Sample: Tests on a Single Mean (Variance
Unknown).
• Simple linear regression and correlation.
• Least Squares Method of Estimation.
• Properties of Least-Square Estimators.
• The coefficient of determination and the sample
correlation coefficient.
 Basic probability concepts
• Probability gives a numerical value that represents
the chance of a certain event occurring.
• An experiment is the process by which you obtain
an observation.
• A trial is an experiment that you conduct a number
of times under the same conditions.
• An event is an outcome from a trial.
• A random experiment is one where there is
uncertainty over which event may occur.
• A random experiment can have a number of different
equally likely outcomes. One outcome or several
outcomes form an event.
• Some examples of random experiments are: rolling a
dice three times or tossing a coin twice.
• Write to represent the probability of an event
occurring, where .
• A set of all possible outcomes is called the sample
space, .
• The theoretical probability of an event is , where
is the number of outcomes that give event and is the
total number of possible outcomes.

Example 1. The numbers 1 to 20 are each written on a

card. The 20 cards are mixed together. One card is
chosen at random from the pack. Find the probability
that the number on the card is:
a) odd;
b) a factor of 28;
c) the prime number.
Example 2. Two unbiased dice are rolled. Event
is that the numbers on the upper face are equal
and event is that both numbers are odd. Find the
following probabilities:

Sample space diagram

Example 3. A black die and a white die are thrown at the same time.
Find the probability of obtaining:

(I) that the sum of the two numbers that turn up is 8
(II) of obtaining a total 6
(III) of obtaining a total of 10
(IV) of obtaining the same number on both dice
(V) of obtaining a total of more than 9
(VI) that the sum of the two numbers appearing on the top of the dice is 13
(VII) that the sum of the numbers appearing on the top of the dice is less than or
equal to 12
(VIII) that the product of numbers appearing on the top of the dice is less than 9
(IX) that the difference of the numbers appearing on the top of the two dice is 2
Example 4. A fair coin is tossed three times.
Find the probability of obtaining:
all three tails;
exactly one head;
at least two heads;
no tails;
e) getting at most one head.
 Sample space and events.
 ELEMENTS OF SET THEORY

 A set is a collection of objects possessing some common properties.

 These objects are called elements of the set and they can be of any
kind with any specified properties.

 Capital letters shall be used to denote sets, and lower-case letters

to denote their elements.
 A set is thus described by its elements.
Notationally, we can write, for example,
 For a set consisting of all nonnegative real numbers, a convenient
description is

 We shall use the convention to mean

‘element belongs to set A ’.
 A set containing no elements is called an empty or null set and
is denoted by .
We distinguish between sets containing a finite number of elements
and those having an infinite number.

 They are called, respectively, finite sets and infinite sets.

 An finite set is called enumerable or countable if all of its
elements can be arranged in such a way that there is a one-to-one
correspondence between them and all positive integers; thus, a
set containing all positive integers 1, 2, . . . is a simple example of
an enumerable set.
 A nonenumerable or uncountable set is one where the
above-mentioned one-to-one correspondence cannot be
established.
A simple example of a nonenumerable set is the set C described
above.
{}
 We now give meaning to a particular set we shall call space.
In our development, we consider only sets that are subsets of a
fixed (nonempty) set.
 This ‘largest’ set containing all elements of all the sets under
consideration is called space and is denoted by the symbol U.
 Venn Diagrams
• Venn diagrams are the illustrations that show the
relationship between two or more sets by means
of overlapping circles.
• Venn diagrams are useful in solving some
probability problems involving two or more
events.
• In a Venn diagram, the rectangle always
represents the sample space , which is the set of
all possible outcome of an experiment.
• If you use a circle to represent an event , the part
of the rectangle outside the circle represents the
complement of this event, i.e., the set of the
elements of the sample space that are not
elements of .

U A 𝐴=U ¿
• Suppose and are the subsets of .
• The union of and , denoted by , is defined as

• It can be illustrated using Venn diagram as

U
• The intersection of the sets and , denoted by , is
defined as

• It can be illustrated using Venn diagram as

U
• The difference of and , denoted by , is defined
as

• It can be illustrated using Venn diagram as

𝐴¿
If every element of a set A is also an element of a set B, the set A
is called a subset of B and this is represented symbolically by

𝐵
𝐴

Venn diagram for

It is clear that an empty set is a subset of any set. When both

and , set is then equal to , and we write
Using Venn diagrams or analytical procedures, it is easy
to verify that union and intersection operations are
associative, commutative, and distributive; that is,
Clearly, we also have
Example 5. In a group of 30 students ,17 play computer
games,10 play board games and 9 play neither.
Draw a Venn diagram to show this
information. Use your diagram to find the probability
that:
a) a student chosen at random from the group plays board
games,
b) a student plays both computer games and board
games,
c) a student plays board games but not computer games.
 Probability Properties
• As it was mentioned above, the probability of an event is defined as

where is the number of outcomes that give event and

is the total number of equally likely possible outcomes.
The probability satisfies the following properties:
Example 6. Business department module consists of
the coursework and an examination. It is known that %
passed the coursework, % passed the examination and
% passed both. One student is chosen at a random.
Find the probability that:
a student passed the coursework or the examination;
a student failed both the coursework and the
examination.
Example 7. 100 people were asked if they liked
Math, Science, or Social Studies. Everyone answered
that they liked at least one. 56 like Math 18 like Math
and Science,
43 like Science 10 like Science and Social Studies, 35
like Social Studies, 12 like Math and Social Studies ,6
like all three subjects.
Draw a Venn diagram for this problem.
• If one person is chosen at random, what is the
probability that that person will like Science and
Math?
• If one person is chosen at random, what is the
probability that that person will like only Math?
• If one person is chosen at random, what is the
probability that that person will not like Science?
• If one person is chosen at random, what is the
probability that that person will like Science or Math?
Example 8. In a survey, 60% of people are in
favor of building a new primary school and 85%
are in favor of building a new library.
Half of all those surveyed would like both a new
primary school and a new library. What
percentage supported neither a new
library nor a new primary school?
 Mutually exclusive events.

Events A and B are mutually exclusive if they

cannot occur at the same time. It means that
and
Addition Rule :

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

Example 9. Determine if the scenario involves
mutually exclusive events.
1. A spinner has an equal chance of landing on each
of its eight numbered regions. After spinning, it
lands in region three or six.
2. A magazine contains twelve pages. You open to a
random page. The page number is eight or ten.
3. A bag contains six yellow marbles numbered one
to six. The bag also contains four purple marbles
numbered one to four. You randomly pick a marble.
It is purple or has a number greater than five.
4. There are eleven shirts in your closet, four blue and
seven green. You randomly select one to wear on
Monday and then a different one on Tuesday. You wear
blue shirts both days
5. You flip a coin and then roll a fair six-sided die. The
coin lands heads-up and the die shows an even number.
6. A box of chocolates contains six milk chocolates and
five dark chocolates. You randomly pick a chocolate and
eat it. Then you randomly pick another piece. Both
pieces are milk chocolate.
• Example 10. One ball is selected at random
from a bag containing 5 red balls, 2 yellow balls
and 4 white balls. Find the probability of
selecting a red ball or a white ball.

• Example 11. A computer randomly generates

the last digit of a telephone number. Find the
probability that the outcome is an or .
• Example 12. A box contains three red playing
cards numbered one to three. The box also
contains five black playing cards numbered one to
five. You randomly pick a playing card. Find the
probability that it is black or has an odd number.
• Example 13. Determine if events A and B are
mutually exclusive.
• .

•
SAMPLE SPACE AND PROBABILITY MEASURE
Summary
Thank you
For Your Attention