Zimbabwe Institute of Management: Module: Project Planning A
Zimbabwe Institute of Management: Module: Project Planning A
Management
MODULE: PROJECT
PLANNING A
Facilitator:
Mr C Ncube
Phd Candidate (Management)
Contact Details:
+263 775 558 922
[email protected]
1
Overview
Day 2
4
Day 1
AT THE END OF THIS UNIT, YOU
SHOULD BE ABLE TO UNDERSTAND
THE FOLLOWING:
Later still, another wonder of the world was built. Since the Qin
Dynasty (221BC-206BC), construction of the Great Wall had
been a large project.
According to historical data, the labour force was organised into
three groups: soldiers, common people and criminals.
The Emperor Qin Shihuang ordered millions of people to finish
this project.
Evolution of Project Planning: 1917 - The Gantt chart
Developed by Henry Gantt (1861-1919)
A project:
Has a unique purpose.
Is temporary.
Is developed using progressive elaboration.
Requires resources, often from various areas.
Should have a primary customer or sponsor.
The project sponsor usually provides the direction and funding for the project.
Involves uncertainty.
What is Project Management?
Successful project
management means
meeting all three
goals (scope, time,
and cost) – and
satisfying the
project’s sponsor!
Knowledge Areas
Scope Management
Time Management
Cost Management
Quality Management
Human Resources Management
Communications Management
Risk Management
Procurement Management
Integration Management
Project Characteristics
Causes of Project Failure
Leading
Controlling Planning
Staffing Organizing
ROLE OF PROJECT MANAGER
TECHNICAL TRANSACTIONA
L
TRANSFOR-
MATIONAL
RESPONSIBIBILITIES OF A PROJECT
MANAGER
The project manager controls and monitors project scope, time and
cost in managing project manager controls and monitors project
scope, time and cost in managing project requirements.
The project manager examines the organizational culture and
determines whether project management is recognized as a valid as
role with accountability and authority for managing the project.
The project manager is responsible for identifying, monitoring and
responding to risk
Skills for Project Managers
Meredith Belbin and his colleagues have spent years studying team
work in an experimental environment
They have defined eight team roles
Coordinator (calm, confident, controlled)
Plant (creative, unorthodox, non-practical)
Implementer (conservative, dutiful)
Shaper (extrovert, dynamic, pushing, provoking)
Monitor/Evaluator (analytic, strategic, dry)
Team worker (sensitive, mild, indecisive, caring)
Resource Investigator (curious, communicative)
Completer-Finisher (thorough, perfectionist, anxious )
Conditions Favoring Development of
High Performance Project Teams
Unit 3
Project Management
Five phases - the project management life cycle
Scoping the Project - Identify problems, opportunities,
goals, resources, success criteria, risks, and obstacles
Develop a Detailed Plan - identify, estimate duration, and
resource the activities, prepare proposal
Launch the Plan - recruit and organize team, schedule and
document work
Monitor/Control Progress - establish progress reporting,
change control tools, monitor progress, amend plan
Closing - obtain client acceptance, install deliverables,
complete documentation, post-implementation report,
issue final project report.
Project Process Life Cycle
Planning Monitorin
Productio
Initiati or g and
developm
n or
controllin Closing
on execution
ent g
Project management
Step 1 - Scope the Project
Five components in a project statement
– Problem and opportunity - a statement of fact
– Project goal - what the project will address
– Project objectives - what the project includes
– Success criteria - business value; quantitative
business outcome
– Assumptions, risks, objectives - what will
hinder the project in achieving its goals
Project management lifecycle
Step 2 - Develop a detailed plan
Identify project activities (work breakdown structures)
– break-down tasks by: “design-build-test-implement”,
functional, or geographic area
– should have clearly defined start and end
Estimate activity duration (focus on early activities)
– consider comparability to similar, historical projects or
expert advice
– use Delphi technique where expert is not available
(group polls each member for estimates, with gradual
consensus over several iterations)
– 3 point techniques identifies optimistic, pessimistic and
likely estimates
Project management lifecycle
Step 2 - Develop a detailed plan (continued)
Determine resource requirements
– be sure to schedule activities based on available
resources
– consider leveling resources (see Slide 15)
– at some point, adding more resources provides
no incremental benefit
– more to coordinate
– more to communicate
Project management lifecycle
Step 2 - Develop a detailed plan (continued)
Dependencies of activity B and Activity A:
– Finish to start: complete A before starting B
• e.g., finish creating table structure before final
query/form
– Start to start: begin B only after A begins
• e.g., begin issuing reports after data entry starts
– Start to finish: end B only after A has started
• e.g., shut off old system once new system is
working
– Finish to finish: end B only once A has also ended
• e.g., testing can be finished only after development
work is completed.
Project management lifecycle
Step 3 - Implement the plan
Recruit and organize the project team
– Project manager: leader of the project
– Core team: will be there from beginning to end
– Contracted team: only there for selected activities/tasks
Leveling project resources utilization
– necessary to prevent wild fluctuation in staff levels
– can be done by adjusting any of: activity start/end
dates, sequencing activities schedules, using float
Scheduling and documenting work
– describes/reports work done / to do (e.g., Gantt chart)
Project management lifecycle
Step 4 - Monitoring and controlling progress
Purpose, contents and frequency of reports
– current period, cumulative and/or exception reports
Graphical tools
– Gantt charts, milestone charts, cost/budget
Reporting detail
– team members and project manager need detail
– senior managers prefer graphical exception reports
Conduct regular status review meetings
– weekly for team, bi-weekly for other stakeholders
Change control - formalize it.
– measure and report impact of changes on project
Project management lifecycle
Step 5 - Closing the project
Ensure all deliverables are installed
• avoid penalties
Obtain client acceptance of
deliverables
Ensure documentation is complete
– includes project overview, RFP, detailed
plan, meeting minutes, change control,
testing, client acceptance, post
implementation review, etc.
Conduct post-implementation review
Party!
Project management lifecycle
Objectives for the post-implementation
review
Was project goal achieved?
Was the project done on time, on budget, in
accordance with specifications?
Was client satisfied with the project results?
Was the business value realized?
And most importantly:
What were the lessons learned for the benefit of
future projects?
Feasibility study
UNIT 4
Feasibility study
Pollution
Environmental degradation
49
End of Day 1
Unit 5: Project Time
Management (Project
Scheduling: PERT & Critical
Path Analysis)
Importance of Project Schedules
Managers often cite delivering projects on time as
one of their biggest challenges
Schedule issues are the main reason for conflicts
on projects, especially during the second half of
projects
51
Project Time Management Processes
Planning
P3: Sequence Activities Project Schedule Network
Diagram
53
P1: Defining Activities
An activity or task is an element of work
normally found on the work breakdown structure
(WBS) that has an expected duration, a cost,
and resource requirements
54
Activity Lists, Attributes &
Milestones
An activity list is a tabulation of activities to
be included on a project schedule that
includes
Activity attributes
55
P2: Activity Duration Estimating
Duration vs. Effort
56
P3: Sequencing Activities
Involves reviewing activities and determining
dependencies
A dependency or relationship is the
sequencing of project activities or tasks
You must determine dependencies in order to
use critical path analysis
57
Network Diagrams
A network diagram is a schematic display of
the logical relationships among, or
sequencing of, project activities
Two main formats are the arrow and
precedence diagramming methods
58
Network Diagrams
Activity-on-Node (AON):
Uses nodes to represent the activity
Uses arrows to represent precedence relationships
© Wiley 2007
P4: Developing the Schedule
60
Gantt Charts
61
Gantt Chart Showing Each Activity Finished
at the Earliest Possible Start Date
© Wiley 2010
Project Time Management Techniques
65
Step 1-Define the Project: Cables By Us is bringing a new
product on line to be manufactured in their current facility in
existing space. The owners have identified 11 activities and their
precedence relationships. Develop an AON for the project.
Immediate Duration
Activity Description
Predecessor (weeks)
A Develop product specifications None 4
B Design manufacturing process A 6
C Source & purchase materials A 3
D Source & purchase tooling & equipment B 6
E Receive & install tooling & equipment D 14
F Receive materials C 5
G Pilot production run E&F 2
H Evaluate product design G 2
I Evaluate process performance G 3
J Write documentation report H&I 4
K Transition to manufacturing J 2
© Wiley 2010
Step 2- Diagram the Network for
Cables By Us
© Wiley 2010
Step 3 (a)- Add Deterministic Time
Estimates and Connected Paths
© Wiley 2010
Step 3 (a) (Con’t): Calculate
the Project Completion Times
Paths Path duration
ABDEGHJK 40
ABDEGIJK 41
ACFGHJK 22
ACFGIJK 23
The longest path (ABDEGIJK) limits the
project’s duration (project cannot finish in
less time than its longest path)
ABDEGIJK is the project’s critical path
© Wiley 2010
Unit 6: Project
Investment Appraisal Should we
build this
plant?
After this unit, students should be able to:
(1) Demonstrate understanding of the following methods of investment
appraisal for financial decision making:
• Payback
• Net Present Value (NPV)
• Accounting Rate of Return
(2) Conduct an investment appraisal in a given business context
(3) Evaluate the outcomes of an investment appraisal and make
recommendations for investment decision making
(4) Evaluate the methods of investment appraisal a professional business
services firm can use with a client when advising on financial decision
making
The Payback Period Method
How long does it take the project to “pay
back” its initial investment?
Payback Period = number of years to recover
initial costs
Minimum Acceptance Criteria:
Set by management
Ranking Criteria:
Set by management
5-72
The Payback Period Method
Disadvantages:
Ignores the time value of money
Ignores cash flows after the payback period
Biased against long-term projects
Requires an arbitrary acceptance criteria
A project accepted based on the payback
criteria may not have a positive NPV
Advantages:
Easy to understand
Biased toward liquidity
5-73
Example
You invest $100 in a business, the free cash
flow is as follows:
Cumulative Cashflow
Year 1: $40 $40
Year 2: $30 $70
Year 3: $30 $100
Year 4: $24 $124
Year 5: $15 $ 139
5-74
Question
You invest $2000 in a certain business and
your required payback is 2 years. The free
cash flow is as follows:
Year 1: $100
Year 2: $600
Year 3 $1100
Year 4: $200
Year 5: $950
Calculate the payback and comment. 5-75
Payback in between years
You invest $100 in a business, the free cash
flow is as follows:
Collected payback
Year 1: $40 $40
Year 2: $30 $70 ($100-$70)/$45
Year 3: $45 $115 0.667
Year 4: $24 $139 2+0.667= 2.667yrs
Year 5: $15 $154 2.667*12= 32 months
2 years 8 months 5-76
Question
You invest $200 in a business, the free cash flow
is as follows:
Year 1: $40 $40
Year 2: $30 $70
Year 3: $30 $100
Year 4: $140 $240
Year 5: $15 $255
Calculate payback period
5-77
PAYBACK TYPICAL EXAM QUESTION:
COMPARE TWO PROJECTS
Our task is to select which of the two investments is more advantageous. The payback
method simply suggests choosing the capital project that provides quicker repossession
of the capital expenditure. Hence, we need to calculate the cumulative Net Cash Flow
that is obtained after each year in the future and see when the cumulative Net Cash
Flow is at least equal to the capital expenditure. You can see from the calculation made
in the example that Project A repays its capital expenditure of $ 150,000 in Year 4,
while Project B does so in Year 3. Other things being equal, Project B would be
selected. 5-78
TIME VALUE TO MONEY!!
79
The Discounted cash flow methods
How long does it take the project to “pay
back” its initial investment, taking the time
value of money into account?
Decision rule: Accept the project if it pays
back on a discounted basis within the specified
time.
By the time you have discounted the cash
flows, you might as well calculate the NPV.
5-80
Net present value (NPV)
The net present value (NPV) of the project is the total of the discounted
net cash flows over the lifetime of the project. The mathematical
expression for the NPV is:
5-81
The Net Present Value (NPV) Rule
Net Present Value (NPV) =
Total PV of future CF’s + Initial Investment
Estimating NPV:
1. Estimate future cash flows: how much? and when?
2. Estimate discount rate
3. Estimate initial costs
Minimum Acceptance Criteria: Accept if NPV > 0
Ranking Criteria: Choose the highest NPV
5-82
Example which shows the calculation of Net Present
Value of an investment in a capital project
A company is deciding whether to invest in a project that requires an initial
capital expenditure of $180,000. The project is expected to generate annual
Net Cash Flows (NCFs) of $60,000 during its estimated five-year working
life, and the asset is expected to have no residual value at the end of this
period. The company’s cost of capital is 10%.
5-83
The Net Present Value
Please be clear about the difference between the discount rate and the discount factor.
The discount rate is r. The discount factor is given by
In this example, r = 0.10, so in Year 1 the discount factor is 1/(1 + 0.10) or 0.909. In
Year 2 the discount factor is 1/(1 + 0.10)2 or 0.826. The net cash flow in each year is
multiplied by the discount factor for that year. Discount factors can be obtained from
discount tables often included in accountancy and finance texts, and can be used for
manual calculations. Of course, we can conveniently use the spreadsheet to make the
required calculations. In the example, the discount rate is 10% as this represents the
company’s cost of capital.
The NPV of the project is the sum of the PV of the future net cash flows less the capital
expenditure. That is, $227,447 less $180,000 = $47,447.
5-84
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