Numerical Weather

Prediction

Robert R. Gotwals, Jr. (“Bob2”)

Computational Science Educator
The Shodor Education
Foundation, Inc.
http://www.shodor.org
http://www.shodor.org/talks/nwp

May, 2002 Numerical Weather Predicti 1

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 Session Goals
• Describe application,
algorithm, and
architecture
• Describe and demonstrate
the various NWP
programs and codes
• Describe appropriate and
authentic classroom
activities using online
NWP tools

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 Application - First
Principles
• Definition:
• The use of computer
models to predict the future
state of the atmosphere
given observations and
equations that describe
relevant physical processes
• Some givens:
• Weather prediction is
really hard
• Synoptic scale
calculations, but local
influences
• Equations are nonlinear

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 Application - Results
• Example plots
• Temperature
• Dewpoint
• Mean sea level
pressures (MSLP)
• Winds, surface and aloft
• Cloud cover
• Precipitation and types
• Severe weather indices
• CAPE
• Helicity

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 Algorithm - NWP
Desks
• Desk seat 1: calculates east-west
component of the wind
• Desk seat 2: calculates north-south
component of the wind
• Desk seat 3: keeps track of the air
entering or leaving the box. If more is
coming in than going out, decides how
much air rises or sinks
• Desk seat 4: calculates the effects of
adding or taking away heat
• Desk seat 5: keeps track of water in all
forms and how much is changing to or
from vapor, liquid, or ice
• Desk seat 6: calculates the air
temperature, pressure, and density

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 Architecture -
Platforms
• NWP requires significant computing power
• True supercomputing required
– Gigaflops - billions of calculations
(floating point operations) per second
– Teraflop - trillions of calculations per
second
• Data storage
– NCAR - late 2000, 200 terabytes of
data stored
• NCAR machine
– 11th most powerful supercomputing in
the world
– IBM SP Power 3
– 1260 CPUs (processors)
– Peak capabilities: 1890 Gigaflops

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 Architecture - Codes
• General categories
– By resolution
– By scale
• Global (northern hemisphere)
• National
• relocatable
– By outlook (time-based)
• Well-known codes
– Nested Grid Model (NGM)
– ETA
– Aviation Model (AVN)
– Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)
– Medium Range Forecast (MRF)
– Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5)
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 Nested Grid Model
(NGM)
• National model
• Short-range model (+48
hours), every 6 hour
forecasts
• Forecast output
– Temperature
– Precipitation
– Upper and lower
trough positioning
– Surface highs and lows
• Grid size: 80 km
• Operational status: being
phased out http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/index.html?MODEL=ngm

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 ETA
• Name comes from eta coordinate
system
• Short-range model
• Four runs daily: 0000Z, 0600Z, 1200Z,
1800Z
• 32 km horizontal domain, with 45
vertical layers
• Significantly outperforms other models
in precipitation predictions

http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/index.html?MODEL=eta

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 Rapid Update Cycle
• Regional model
• Short-term forecasts
– Up to 12 hours
• Focuses on mesoscale weather
features
• 25 vertical layers, 40 km
horizontal resolution
• New experimental version:
MAPS
• RUC/MAPS generate
significant amount of data
http://weather.unisys.com/ruc/index.html

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 Medium Range
Forecast (MRF) Model
• Global model
• Medium to long-range
predictions: 60 to 240
hours
• Resolution: 150 km
• Other global models
– UKMET
– ECMWF
– Global Ocean Model

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 Aviation Model
• Generates aviation-
focused data
• 42 vertical layers, 100
km horizontal resolution
• Advantage: medium-
range forecasting (up to
72 hours)
• One of the oldest
operational models
• Data results available
mostly in MOS (model http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/index.html
output statistics) format

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 MM5
• Fifth generation mesoscale
NWP
• Study types
– hurricanes
– cyclones
– monsoons
– fronts (formation,
interactions)
– land-sea breeze
meteorology
– urban heat islands
– mountain-valley
circulations
http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/

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 Sample Prediction
• Question: assuming
precipitation, what will it be?
• Tools:
– Atmospheric sounding
(weather balloon data)
• Shows temperature
and dewpoint
temperature from
surface to upper
atmosphere
– Flowchart: precipitation
type decision tree
• Analysis/solution shown on next
slide

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 Sample Prediction -
Solution

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 Classroom Integration -
Forecasting Rules of thumb
• Will it be cloudy or clear?
– On the 700-mb forecast chart,
the 70% relative humidity line
usual encloses areas that are
likely to have clouds
• Will it rain?
– On the 700-mb forecast chart,
the 90% relative humidities line
often encloses areas where
precipitation is likely.
• Will it rain or snow?
– On the 850-mb forecast chart,
snow is likely north of the -5 C
(23 F) isotherm, rain to the
south

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 Classroom Integration -
Weather observations
• Correlating low-tech
weather observations
– Use “instant weather
prediction chart”
– Shows various
weather 24 hours out
based on easily
observable
meteorological
phenomenon
– Can correlate this
with model data http://www.shodor.org/bob2/wx/weather predict.html

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 Classroom Integration
• Good starting place:
meteograms
– Relatively easy to
interpret
– Contain a lot of data
– Typically project out
24 to 72 hours
– Relatively good
resolution (normally
22 km)
– Available from a
variety of models http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/meteograms/

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 Classroom Integration
• Harder: atmospheric
soundings graphs
• Substantial amounts of
information
• Graphical and text-based
information
– Graphical:
temperature,
dewpoint
temperatures, wind
speeds and
directions
– Text: key
meteorological
indices

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 Questions?
• Chat Sessions
– Monday, May 13 3:30-
4:30 PM and 6:00-7:00
PM
– Wednesday, May 15
3:30-4:30 PM
– Monday, May 20 6:00-
7:00 PM
– Thursday, May 23 3:30-
4:30 PM and 6:00-7:00
PM

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