Topic 2 INDEX Lecture
Topic 2 INDEX Lecture
Index Numbers
INDEX RELATIVES
An Index Number measures the percentage change in
the value of some economic commodity over a period
of time
3
Why
Easier to comprehend than
actual numbers (percent compute
change) indexes?
$357,013$323,604
$ 3 4 5 ,6 5 1 ,2 8 9 ,5 6 0 decrease of $33,409
or 10% ? decrease is 10.3%
6
Quantity
Now
Price of
Gasoline
Then
RM1.37
(1 May 2004)
Price Relatives
A price relative shows how the current price per unit
for a given item compares to a base period price per
unit for the same item.
A price relative expresses the unit price in each period
as a percentage of the unit price in the base period.
Price in period n
Price relative in period n 100
Base period price
INTERPRETATION
• An index number is always referenced back to a
base year
• This is always given a value of 100
• Subsequent figures ( the next years) are then
scaled in relation to the base year
• So an index gives the change since the base year
• Therefore we can arbitrarily change the base year,
at least from a mathematical point of view
12
SIMPLE PRICE INDEX
A simple price index number measures the relative change
in just one variable.
Suppose we have the price of an item for each year over a
four year period:
Year Price Calculation Index
1 RM2.00 (RM2 / RM2)* 100 100
2 RM2.20 (RM2.20/RM2)* 100 110
3 RM2.40 (RM2.40/RM2)* 100 120
4 RM2.90 (RM2.90/RM2)* 100 145
1998 200
1999 320
2000 450
2001 600
(i) Construct the data into an index number series (1998–2001) with
1998 as the base year.
(ii) Transform the series (1998–2001) so that the base year is 1999.
17
Pn In
100 100
Po Io
SIMPLE PRICE INDEX (continued)
20
solution:
LINKING INDEX SERIES
Construct a chain index using year 3 as a base year.
Year Old Index New Index Calculation Chain Index (year 3=100)
1 100 100/1.69 59.17
2 126 126/1.69 74.56
3 169 100 100 100
4 110 110 110
5 115 115 115
6 120 120 120
The key to this is having the old and new The ratio is 169 to 100
values of one year – here year 3 Or 1.69 to 1
Use this on the other index
numbers
21
AGGREGATE PRICE
INDEXES
An aggregate price index is developed for the specific purpose of
measuring the combined change of a group of items
UNWEIGHTED AGGREGATE PRICE
INDEXES
It
P
it
100
Pio
where
Pit = unit price for item i in period t
Pi 0 = unit price for item i in the base period
SIMPLE AGGREGATE PRICE
INDEX
In most cases we are interested in the prices of a “basket of
goods”, and not just one item ( employee’s wages) .
We therefore need an aggregate index.
Item Price Yr0 Price Yr1 Price Yr2
1. Add up columns A £1.00 £1.10 £1.15
B £2.00 £2.30 £2.35
2. Use Pn C £5.00 £5.60 £5.70
100
Po £8.00 £9.00 £9.20
100 112.5 115
9
100
8
What is “wrong” with this?
Average for these 3 prices would be meaningless 24
the quantities for different item differ so much from each other and, secondly, the unit
prices are themselves for different quantities
Question
The table below shows the average prices received by farmers
for specified commodities in 1992,1995 and 1999.
Price (in RM)
commodities 1992 1995 1999
A(P/liter) 0.26 0.31 0.56
B(P/kilo) 1.05 1.17 2.15
C(P/kilo) 0.75 0.85 1.40
D(P/kilo) 2.50 2.20 2.60
Taking 1992 as base year, find simple aggregate price index in year 1999.
SAPI 1999
P n
100
0.56 2.15 1.4 2.6
100 147.1
P o 0.26 1.05 0.75 2.5
25
AVERAGE PRICE RELATIVES
(APR)
P
INDEX 100 n
Numbers of items P
I APR
0
N
A price relative is a simple index of the price now of an item in
relation to the price in the base year.
Item Price Yr0 Price Yr1 Price Yr2 PR Yr0 PR Yr1 PR Yr2
A £1.00 £1.10 £1.15 100 110 115
B £2.00 £2.30 £2.35 100 115 117.5
C £5.00 £5.60 £5.70 100 112 114
Pn 300 337 346.5
I 100
1. Find PR’s for each item Po
100 112.33 115.5
2. Add up columns I
3. Find the average I Note that we get different
I APR
N answers this time
26
If price was weighted, this indicate the relative importance of
each of the prices
QUESTION
The table below shows the average prices received by farmers
for specified commodities in 1992,1995 and 1999.
Price (in RM)
commodities 1992 1995 1999
A(P/liter) 0.26 0.31 0.56
B(P/kilo) 1.05 1.17 2.15
C(P/kilo) 0.75 0.85 1.40
D(P/kilo) 2.50 2.20 2.60
27
Solution
Price (in RM) Price Relatives
29
Weighted Aggregate Price
Indexes
With a weighted aggregate index each item in the group is
weighted according to its importance, which typically is
the quantity of usage.
Letting Qi = quantity for item i, the weighted aggregate
price index in period t is given by
It
PQ
it i
100
P Q
io i
P Q
n 0
Lp 100
P Q
0 0
prices increase.
Paasche price index (PPI)
When the weights are quantities at current year, the
index is a Paasche price index (PPI).
This is a current-weighted index, i.e. it uses the quantities in
the current year to assess the relative importance of the items
P Q
n n
Pp 100
P Q
0 n
(344.44)(436.36)
387.69 34
OTHER INDICES
These indices can be turned around to make quantity indices:
P Q
0 0
P Q
n 0
P Q
0 0 35
Example:
Mr. Wong owns stock in three companies. The table
shows the price per share at the end of 2010 and 2011 for
the three stocks and the quantities he owned in 2010 and
2011.
Stock Prices (in RM) Numbers share
2010 2011 2010 2011
MBB 1 2 30 50
GWR 5 4 15 30
BP 6 6 40 20
Item P10 * Q10 P11 * Q10 P10 * Q11 P11 * Q11 1. Multiply
MBB 1(30) = 30 2(30) = 60 1(50) = 50 2(50) = 100 each price by
GWR 5(15) = 75 4(15) = 60 5(30) = 150 4(30) = 120 the quantity
BP 6(40) = 240 6(40) = 240 6(20) = 120 6(20) = 120 in Year 0
Σ 345 360 320 340 2. Add up each
LPI = 360/345 * 100 = 104.35 column
PPI = 340/320 * 100 = 106.25
MBB 1 2 30 50 PQ
0 0
GWR
BP
5
6
4
6
15
40
30
20
P Q 100
11 11
P Q
10 10
340
(100) 98.55
345
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
(CPI)
CPI is seen as a general indicator of the change in
retail prices paid by households for goods and
services.
measures
changes through time in the price level of
consumer goods and services purchased by households
The
annual percentage change in a CPI is used as a
measure of inflation.
It allows consumers to
determine the effect of
price increases on their
purchasing power.
It computes It is an economic
It is a
real income: indicator of the rate
yardstick for
real income = of inflation in the
revising wages,
money Malaysia.
pensions,
alimony income/CPI
payments, etc. (100)
CPI = P Q 100
n 0
P Q
0 0
Where:
Pn = Price per unit of an item in the current
period.
Po = Price per unit of an item in the base period.
Qn = Quantity consumed of an item in the current
period.
Qo = Quantity consumed of an item in the base
period. 45
PoQo
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
(CPI)
(continued)
Solution:
CPI =
PnQo x100
PoQo
Commodity PnQo PoQo
A 40x100=4000 36x100=3600
B 90x12=1080 80x12=960
C 41x16=656 45x16=720
D 6x1100=6600 5x1100=5500
Total 12336 10780
CPI = (12336 / 10780) X 100
= 114.4 47
NOMINAL & REAL CHANGE
Index numbers allow us to remove inflation from monetary
figures, and therefore show real changes;
Nominal price
Real price 100 51
CPI
NOMINAL & REAL CHANGE
Year CPI CPI Real minimum wage Real minimum
(1990=100) wage index
1990 82.5 100 RM 3.76 100
1992 118.1 143.15 RM 2.84 75.53
1994 130 157.58 RM 2.92 77.66
1996 148 179.39 RM 3.21 85.37
1998 156.8 190.06 RM 3.28 87.23
Nominal price
Real price 100 52
CPI
THE REAL PRICES OF EGGS
AND CONDENSED MILK
Real price
Nominal price
CPI
100
In 1970, a carton of 10 eggs cost about $0.94 in Singapore. In the
same year, the average cost of a 397g tin of condensed milk cost
$0.50. By 2000, the price of eggs had risen to $1.51 per carton,
and the average cost of a 397g tin of condensed milk was $1.00.
In real terms, were eggs more expensive in 2000 than in 1970?
Had condensed milk become relatively more expensive?
Eggs 0.940
100
1.47
100
1.45
100
1.51
100
100 189.05 236.28 280.31
$0.940 $0.778 $0.614 $0.539
Condensed Milk 0.5
100
0.93
100
1.13
100
1.00
100
100 189.05 236.28 280.31
$0.5 $0.492 $0.478 $0.357
In real terms, were eggs more expensive in 2000 than in 1970 as compare to
condensed milk?
THE REAL PRICES OF EGGS
AND CONDENSED MILK
Nominal Prices Real Prices
The real cost of eggs fell by 43 percent from 1970 to 2000, while
the real cost of condensed milk fell by 29 percent over the same
period. In other words, condensed milk becomes relatively more
expensive compared with eggs in 2000.
It is these relative changes in prices that are important for the
choices that consumers make, not the fact that both eggs and
condensed milk cost more in nominal dollars today than they did
in 1970.
KUALA LUMPUR COMPOSITE
INDEX
Broad-based capitalization-weighted index
Measures the performance of the aggregate market
capitalization of Malaysia
Base year: 1977
Source:
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/market_information/index_components.ht
KUALA LUMPUR COMPOSITE
INDEX
Year
58
QUESTION
Commodity Prices (in RM) Numbers sold (in `000)
2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008
Sugar 10 12 17 815 832 1176
Coffee 225 237 345 52 58 110
Milk 65 69 95 730 750 1315
1.) Using 2006 as a based year. find simple aggregate price index in
year 2007.
2.) Using 2006 as base year, find average price relatives index in year
2007.
3.) Find the Laspeyres’ Price Index in 2007 using 2006 as a based
year
4.) Find the Paasches’ Price Index in 2007 using 2006 as a based year
5.) Find the Fishers’ ideal price index in 2007 using 2006 as a based
year 59
QUESTION
Commodity Prices (in RM) Numbers sold (in `000)
2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008
Sugar 10 12 17 815 832 1176
Coffee 225 237 345 52 58 110
Milk 65 69 95 730 750 1315
1.) Using 2006 as a based year, find simple aggregate price index in
year 2007.
SAPI 2007
P n
100
12 237 69
100 106
P o 10 225 65
60
QUESTION 2006
Price Relatives
2007 2008
Commodity Prices (in RM) Numbers sold (in `000)
(4) (5) (6)
2006 2007 2008
2006 2007=(2)/(1)x100
=(1)/(1)x100 2008 =(3)/(1)x100
(1) (2) (3)
Sugar 10 12 17 815100 832 1176
120.00 170.00
Coffee 225 237 345 52 100 58 110
105.33 153.33
Milk 65 69 95 730100 750 1315
106.15 146.15
2.) Using 2006 as base year, find average price relatives index in year
2007.
P61
Pn 100
I APR 0
w
QUESTION
Commodity Prices (in RM) Numbers sold (in `000) p06q06 p07xq06 p08q06
2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008
Sugar 10 12 17 815 832 1176 8150 9780 13855
Coffee 225 237 345 52 58 110 11700 12324 17940
Milk 65 69 95 730 750 1315 47450 50370 69350
3.) Find the Laspeyres’ Price Index in 2007 using 2006 as a based
year
L2007
P
07 Q06
100
72474
100 107.69
P
06 Q06 67300
62
Commodity Prices (in RM) Numbers sold (in `000)
P Q
n n
2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008Pp 100
Sugar 10 12 17 815 832 1176 P Q
0 n
Coffee 225 237 345 52 58 110
Milk 65 69 95 730 750 1315
4.) Find the Paasches’ Price Index in 2007 using 2006 as a based year
P 07 Q07 75480
P2007 100 100 107.64
P 06 Q07 70120
63
5.) Find the Fishers’ ideal price index in 2007 using 2006 as a based
year
75480
72474 P2007 100 107.64
L2007 100 107.69 70120
67300
64
END OF TOPIC 2