Introduction to Manufacturing

Systems Engineering: TIE5215

T R CHIKOWORE
 Synopsis

Queuing Models and Theory

 Systems Configuration and Descriptions
 Analysis and Mathematical Modelling
Simulation and Modelling
 Hand Simulation
 Arena Simulation
Intelligent Manufacturing Systems
Modern Manufacturing Methods
 Queuing Models and Theory

Waiting lines are non-value added occurrences

 Waiting in lines does not add enjoyment
 Waiting in lines does not generate revenue
Queuing theory: Mathematical approach to the
analysis of waiting lines.
Goal of queuing analysis is to minimize the sum of
two costs:
 Customer waiting costs
 Service capacity costs
 Implications of Waiting Lines

Cost to provide waiting space

Loss of business
 Customers leaving
 Customers refusing to wait
Loss of goodwill
Reduction in customer satisfaction
Congestion may disrupt other business operations
Cost/Capacity Trade off Model
 Examples of Real World Queuing Systems

Commercial Queuing Systems

 Commercial organizations serving external customers
 e.g. Dentist, bank, ATM, gas stations, plumber, garage
Transportation service systems
 Vehicles are customers or servers
 e.g. Vehicles waiting at toll stations and traffic lights, trucks or ships
waiting to be loaded, taxi cabs, fire engines, elevators, buses
Business-internal service systems
 Customers receiving service are internal to the organization providing
the service
 e.g. Inspection stations, conveyor belts, computer support
Social service systems
 e.g. Judicial process, the ER at a hospital, waiting lists for organ
transplants or student dorm rooms
Components of a Basic Queuing Process
Components of a Basic Queuing Process
 Components of a Basic Queuing Process

The calling population

 The population from which customers/jobs originate
 The size can be finite or infinite (the latter is most common)
 Can be homogeneous (only one type of customers/ jobs) or
heterogeneous (several different kinds of customers/jobs)
The Arrival Process
 Determines how, when and where customer/jobs arrive to the
system
 Important characteristic is the customers’/jobs’ inter-arrival
times
 To correctly specify the arrival process requires data collection of
inter-arrival times and statistical analysis.
 Components of a Basic Queuing Process

The queue characteristics

 Queue discipline, FCFS, FIFO, Priority rules
 Their effect on customer behaviour (Balking, Reneging,
Jockeying)
 Queue length
 Their maximum size (# of jobs the queue can hold)
Patient: Balking: Reneging: Jockeying

Patient: The customer enters the waiting line and

remain until served
Balking: The customer decides not to enter the
waiting line.
Reneging: The customer enters the waiting line but
decides to leave before being served.
Jockeying: When the customer enters one waiting
line and then switches to a different one in an effort
to reduce the waiting time.
 Components of a Basic Queuing Process

The System configuration

 Channels and phases (Single or multiple)
 Number of servers
 Number of phases (stations)
 Their location
 Distinction between infinite and finite capacity
 System Configurations

Multiple channel

Multiple phase
Channel: A server in a service system
Phase: A stage in the service system
 System Configurations

Exercise 1

Draw and describe the following configurations:

Single Channel, Single Phase System
Multiple Channel, Single Phase System
Single Channel, Multiple Phase System
Multiple Channel, Multiple Phase System
 Queuing Theory Basics: Conditions

 Steady State condition

 Enough time has passed for the system state to be independent of the
initial state as well as the elapsed time
 The probability distribution of the state of the system remains the
same over time (is stationary).
 Transient condition
 Prevalent when a queuing system has recently begun operations

 The state of the system is greatly affected by the initial state and by
the time elapsed since operations started
 The probability distribution of the state of the system changes with
time

With few exceptions Queuing Theory has focused on

analyzing steady state behavior
Transient and Steady State Conditions
 Queuing Theory Basics: Notation

Service times as well as interarrival times are assumed independent and identically
distributed if not otherwise specified

Commonly used notation principle: A/B/C

A = The interarrival time distribution
B = The service time distribution
C = The number of parallel servers

Commonly used distributions

M = Markovian (exponential) – Stochastic memoryless model describing a
sequence of possible events
D = Deterministic distribution
G = General distribution
Example: M/M/c
Queuing system with exponentially distributed service and inter-arrival times
and c servers
Queuing Theory: (M/M/1 System)
 Queuing Theory: (M/M/1 System)

The M/M/1 queue assumes that arrivals are a

Poisson process and the service time is exponentially
distributed.
This is a Single Channel, Single Phase System
Interarrival times of a Poisson process are IID
(Independent and Identically Distributed)
exponential random variables with parameter 
Service time is exponentially distributed with

parameter 
Single Channel, Single Phase System
 Arrivals

The Average Arrival Rate or Average Arrival

Intensity, , is the number of arrivals per given unit
time
Examples are: number of customers per hr, number
of orders per week, etc - independent from each other!

- each interarrival i follows

an exponential distribution

1 2
t
 Service Process

The Average Service Rate or Average Service

Intensity,  , is the number of arrivals serviced per
unit time
The assumption is that arrivals are served on a
FCFS basis and that arrivals are patient
 Queuing Theory: Results

Pn = The probability that there are exactly n

customers/jobs in the system (in steady state, i.e.,
when t)
 = Server utilisation
L = Expected number of customers in the system (in
steady state)
Lq = Expected number of customers in the queue (in
steady state)
W = Expected time a job spends in the system
(Throughput time)
Wq = Expected time a job spends in the queue
Queuing Theory: Results

W
Queuing Theory: M/M/1 and M/M/C Results

APPENDIX A – Table A: M/M/1 and M/M/C Queuing Results

M/M/1 M/M/C

 
L L s

 
Lq 

2  (c ) c p(o)
Lq Lq   (    ) c!(1   ) 2
Wq  (c ) c p(o)
W q  (   )

c!c (1   ) 2
W 1 Wq   1
ws   


P(0)   (c ) c c 1
(c ) n 
1

Po  1 
   
 c! (1   ) n  o n! 

 

 Example 1

Suppose a manufacturing facility operates as a flow

shop. Interarrival times are exponentially distributed
with an average arrival rate of 10 orders per week.
Orders are processed on a FCFS basis with a
constant production schedule from week to week.
Orders vary in complexity; but the system is capable
of processing 12 orders per week.

Find the average time from order arrival to

completion.
 Solution to Example 1

This is an M/M/1 system, therefore:

Throughput time is 0.5 weeks

Find also the average waiting time, average number of

orders in queue, average number of orders in the
system, the probability of having no orders in the
system
 Open Networks

A network has more than 1 workstations with jobs

mowing between workstations according to their
processing plans.
Material handling systems are responsible for
moving jobs from one workstation to another.
In an open network an external arrive process
generates jobs that arrive at one or more
workstations and enter the network.
 Important Facts for Open Networks

FACT 1: Poisson Reproductive Property. The sum of

independent Poisson random variables is Poisson

FACT 2: If the number of arrivals per time is

Poisson distributed, then the time between arrivals
has an exponential distribution

FACT 3: The inter departure time from an (M/M/c)

system with infinite queue capacity is exponential
FACT 1: Illustration

= 1+  2 + 3+  4
 Example 2

Six machines stamp part batches and send them to

one inspector. The inspector then sorts batches
sending 97 percent to packing and scrapping 3
percent. Parts are stamped in batches. Each machine
has its own queue and stamps about 10 batches per
day Find the arrival processes at inspection, packing,
and rework.
 Solution to Example 2

The six machines merge their output into one stream for inspection.
Assuming that each machine has exponential interarrival and service
times, their output streams are Poisson by Fact 3. The Reproductive
Property then indicates that input to inspection is a Poisson arrival
process with rate  = 60 batches per day. If inspection time is
exponential, then the output stream is Poisson. Since this output is
randomly divided into two streams, the input to Packing is Poisson
with rate p = (0.97)60 = 58.2 batches per day. Input to scrap is
Poisson with rate s = (0.03)60 = 1.8 batches per day.

Note that this "network" of workstations conserves; at each

workstation and for the network as a whole, all jobs that
enter eventually leave.
Solution to Example 2: Illustrated

Packing
1 =10
1 P
2 =10
2
3 =10 p =0.97(60)
3
4 =10  =60
4 Inspection
5 =10
5 s =0.03(60)
6 =10
6
S
SERVICE RATE 
Scrap
 Example 3

Parts are withdrawn from a warehouse and kitted into packets for filling
production orders. The kit may have enough parts for one finished item or
a batch of these items. The kit is sent first to a workstation for assembly.
Assembly combines parts from the kit to produce a batch of finished parts.
Part batches are then transported to an inspection and packing station.
There are always orders waiting to be kitted, in fact a dispatching system is
designed to keep one hour's worth of work in the input queue for kitters at
all times: Kitting turns out an average of 10 kits per hour. Service rates at
assembly (A) and-inspection/pack (I) are 12 and 15 per hour, respectively.
Kitting, assembly, and inspection/packing times are exponentially
distributed. This system is a serial production system with random
processing times.

Find the expected number of jobs in the kit, assembly, and

inspection/pack system along with the expected throughput time.
Each station has a single server.
 Solution to Example 3

Step 1: Draw the configuration of the system

and label appropriately
WHSE

K A I/P

Kitting Assembly Inspection/Pack

 = 10  = 12 ; c = 1  = 15 ; c = 1
 Solution to Example 3

Step 2: Analyse each station independently

For the Assembly station  = 10 ;  = 12 ; c = 1
 Solution to Example 3

For the Inspection station  = 10 ;  = 15 ; c = 1

 Solution to Example 3

Step 3: Combine results across stations

Total number of jobs in the system:

Throughput Time:
 Example 4

Suppose in the previous Example that each time jobs

are inspected they fail with probability = 0.1 and are
returned to assembly. A feedback loop now exists
from Inspection to Assembly. Rework averages the
same 5 minutes as the initial assembly process.

How is throughput time affected?

 Solution to Example 4

Step 1: Draw the configuration of the system

and label appropriately
Rework at a probability of = 0.1
WHSE

K A I

Kitting Assembly Inspection/Pack

 = 12  = 12 ; c = 1  = 15 ; c = 1
 Solution to Example 4

Step 2: Determine effective Arrival rates for the

Assembly and Inspection station

For the Assembly station: Assembly receives arrivals

from both kitting and rework from inspection, therefore:

For the Inspection station: What arrives at Assembly,

arrives at Inspection station, therefore:
 Solution to Example 4

By solving the two equations simultaneously, using

= 0.1 and  = 10, we get:

Step 3: Analyse each station independently

 Solution to Example 4

 For the Assembly station  = 11.1111 ;  = 12 ; c = 1

 Solution to Example 4

 For the Inspection station  = 11.1111 ;  = 15 ; c = 1

 Solution to Example 4

 Step 3: Combine results across stations; Determine the

number of visits per station

W
 Managerial Implications of Waiting Lines

Managers have a number of very good reasons to be

concerned with waiting lines. Chief among those
reasons are the following:
The cost to provide waiting space.
A possible loss of business should customers leave
the line before being served or refuse to wait at all.
A possible loss of goodwill.
A possible reduction in customer satisfaction.
The resulting congestion that may disrupt other
business operations and/or customers.
 Mitigating Effects of Long Queues

1. Concealing the queue from arriving customers

Restaurants divert people to the bar, amusement parks require people
to buy tickets outside the park
2. Use the customer as a resource
Patient filling out medical history form while waiting for physician
3. Making the customer’s wait comfortable and distracting
their attention
Complementary drinks at restaurants, TVs, computer games, internet
stations, food courts, shops
4. Explain reason for the wait
5. Provide pessimistic estimates of the remaining wait time
Wait seems shorter if a time estimate is given.
6. Be fair and open about the queuing disciplines used
 Maximum Queue Length

The approximate line length that will satisfy a

specified percentage can be determined by solving
the following equation for n:

Where
 Maximum Queue Length

The resulting value of n will not usually be an

integer.
Generally, round up to the next integer and treat the
value as n. However, as a practical matter, if the
computed value of n is less than 0.10 above the next
lower integer, round down.
Thus, 15.2 would be rounded to 16, but 15.06 would
be rounded to 15
 Example 5

Determine the maximum length of a waiting line for

specified probabilities of 95 % and 98 %, for a system
in which number of servers = 2, arrival rate = 8 per
hour, and service rate = 5 per hour
Example 5: Solution