Impact prediction and evaluation

Muhammad Jamal-ud-Din Qureshi

(Lecturer)-Department of Environmental Science
IIUI.
Level BS Hons .
 Impact Prediction
Once potentially significant impacts have been identified, further
investigation is required to predict the scale (or magnitude) of
the impact.
In essence, the process of prediction aims to identify the
magnitude and other dimensions of an identified change in the
environment as a result of a project/action. These dimensions
relate to the following qualities:
• Direct/indirect
• Spatial distribution
• Beneficial or adverse
• Short or long term
• Permanency (especially irreversibility)
• Differing rates of changes
• Cumulative
 Continued…
Prediction should also give some indication as to the probability
that the impact will occur.

The methods used in prediction can be classified according to

their form:

• Mechanistic/Mathematical Models - describe cause-effect

relationships in the form of flow charts or mathematical functions
• Mass Balance Models - describe inputs and outputs from a
defined environmental compartment (e.g. energy flow in an
ecosystem)
• Statistical Models - Statistical techniques such as regression
analysis to describe the relationship between data (e.g. toxicity
data)
 Continued…

• Physical Models - can be used to replicate some element of

the project-environment interaction (e.g. photomontage)
• Field/Laboratory Models - enable the prediction of impacts on
receptors
• Analogue Models - comparison with similar situations
elsewhere (e.g. from site visits, literature, etc.)
• Other Models - e.g. Threshold Of Consent models

How these models are utilized is probably best understood by

reference to an example such as that given in Figure 2, which
illustrates the various techniques used in the prediction of air
quality impacts.
Examples of Methods Used in Predicting Air Quality
Impacts
 Impact Evaluation

Once the scale of impacts has been predicted there is a need

to assess their significance. In other words, what is the level of
concern engendered by the impacts identified?

Possible influences on the perception of impacts include:

• magnitude
• spatial and temporal extent
• degree of recovery of the affected environment
• value of the affected environment
• level of public concern
• political repercussions
 Continued…

• Cost-Benefit Analysis: seeks to express impacts in

monetary terms. Based on NPV calculations using direct and
indirect evaluation techniques.
Other methods are based on the measure of personal utilities,
for example:
• multi-criteria analysis (weights) - often produced by a
technical team, here approaches such as the Delphi System
are used to achieve consensus on the significance of impacts
 Continued…
• decision analysis (trees) - these bring out into the open the
value judgments which underpin decisions and follow through
the implications of decisions to identify the full consequences
of a given course of action.
• goals achievement matrices - these utilize ‘community’
goals as a yardstick by which to ‘measure’ the impact of a
development proposal.
 Social impact assessment
People are an integral part of the environment. Human activity
alters the biophysical environment and, in turn, these impacts
are translated into social effects. In many EIA systems the
immediate and direct social impacts of a proposal always
should be analyzed as an integral component of an EIA.

Social impacts include changes that affect individuals, groups,

communities and populations as well as the interactions
between them. They are alterations in the way people live,
work, play, relate to each other and organize their communities
and institutions to meet their needs and guide their collective
actions, as well as changes in their characteristic values,
beliefs, norms, traditions and perceptions of quality of life and
well-being.
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Social impacts can be divided into four main types:

• demographic impacts such as changes in population

numbers and characteristics (such as sex ratio, age
structure, in-and-out migration rates and resultant demand
for social services, hospital beds, school places, housing
etc.);
• cultural impacts including changes to shared customs,
traditions and value systems (e.g. language, dress, religious
beliefs and rituals) archaeological, historical and cultural
artifacts and to structures and environmental features with
religious or ritual significance;
• community impacts including changes in social structures,
organizations and relationships and their accompanying
effect on cohesion, stability, identity and provision of
services; and
 Continued…

 Socio-psychological impacts including changes to individual

quality of life and well-being, sense of security or belonging
and perceptions of amenity or hazard
 Health impacts
Health impacts can be a significant aspect of certain types of
development. These impacts can be beneficial as well as
adverse; for example, water infrastructure projects eradicate or
drastically reduce the occurrence of cholera, diarrhea and other
gastro-intestinal diseases that are endemic in less developed
countries. However, adverse health impacts can also occur as a
result of development projects, either directly from changes to
the biophysical environment (such as exposure to pollutants) or
indirectly as a secondary result of other changes;
 Continued…
for example, the creation of habitat conditions favorable to the
spread or intensification of disease vectors, such as
mosquitoes (malaria) or water snails (schistosomiasis).
Table 2: Examples of health impacts by sector
  Communicable Non Nutrition Injury Psychosocial
disease communicable disorder and
disease loss of well-
being
Mining †tuberculosis Dust induced   Crushing Labour
lung disease migration

Agriculture Parasitic Pesticide Loss ol    

inlections poisoning subsistence

Industry   Poisoning by   Occupational Disempower-

pollutants injury ment

Forestry     Loss of food Occupational  

production injury

Dams and Water borne Poisoning by Increased food Drowning Involuntary

irrigation schemes diseases pollutants production displacement

  HIV/Aids Heart disease   †rallic injury Noise and

Transportation induced stress

Energy   Indoor air   Electromagnetic Community

pollution radiation displacement
 Economic and fiscal impacts
Invariably, the economic feasibility of a major proposal will be
subject to cost-benefit analysis (CBA). In addition, specific
economic and fiscal impacts of a development proposal may
need to be considered as part of the EIA process, for example
where they have a direct bearing on social and health impacts.
Typically, economic impact assessment is carried out to predict
project- related changes in employment (e.g. new job
requirements in relation to the local labor market), per capita
income (e.g. locally retained versus exported remittances) and
levels of business activity (e.g. positive and negative effects of
the project on local enterprises). Often, economic impacts
cause social impacts.
Box 1: Factors affecting economic and fiscal impacts
Factors affecting economic impacts:
• duration of construction and operational periods
• workforce requirements for each period and phase
of construction
• skill requirements (local availability)
• numbers employed and earnings
• raw material and other input purchases
• capital investment
• outputs
• the characteristics of the local economy
Factors affecting fiscal impacts:
• size of investment and workforce requirements
 Evaluation of impact significance

In effect significance is attached to impacts using the

formula:

Significance = importance rating × environmental quality

score => net impact of alternative project

 Mitigation
During the process of identifying, predicting and evaluating
impacts, EIA makes provisions for the establishment of
mitigation measures. These are defined as: 'measures
envisaged in order to avoid, reduce and, if possible, remedy
significant adverse effects' (CEC, 1985). A summary of the
mitigation approaches suggested provided in Figure 3. In
essence, approaches to mitigation follow the hierarchy:
• Avoid
• Reduce
• Repair/rehabilitate/restore
• Compensate
Thus, when all other options are exhausted and developers
recognize that an impact remains they should seek to identify
acceptable compensation arrangements.
Figure.4: Range of Mitigation Measures Outlined for Guidance
 Monitoring and Auditing

EIA should not stop at the decision - rather it should be seen

as a means of obtaining good environmental management
over the whole life of the project. So there is clearly a need for
monitoring and auditing. Specifically, monitoring involves
measuring and recording physical, social and economic
variables associated with development impacts. The benefits
of monitoring are that it acts as an early warning system, helps
identify and correct unanticipated impacts and provides a
database for use in mediation.
Auditing compares impacts predicted in the EIS with those that
actually occur after implementation, allowing for essential
feedback and improvement to the EIA process.
Thanks