PROBABILITY

Objectives
At the end of the lesson, the students must be able to:

 define probability;

 identify the different approaches to assigning probability;

 solve problems on probability.

Probability

PROBABILITY is a measure of how likely a particular event will occur. It is a

function that assigns a number between 0 and 1, inclusive to an event in a given
sample space.

Given an event, we denote the probability of an event to occur as P(E). If the event E
is certain to happen, it is called a sure event and the probability assigned to event E
is 1, i.e. P(E) = 1.

On the other hand, if the event E is impossible to happen, it is called an impossible

event and the probability assigned to event E is 0, i.e., P(E) = 0.
AXIOMS ON PROBABILITY

Axiom 1: For any event E in the sample space S, P(E) ≥ 0.

Axiom 2: P(S) = 1

Axiom 3: If E1, E2, E3, …, Ek is a sequence of non-overlapping or disjoint events in S,

then P(E1 U E2 U E3 U … U Ek) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 ) + P(E3 ) + … + P(Ek)
Probability
APPROACHES TO ASSIGNING PROBABILITIES

A Priori or Theoretical Approach uses a model with certain assumptions essential to

the occurrence of an event and does not need an actual performance of the
experiment to assign the probability of an event.

A Posteriori or the Empirical Approach needs an actual performance of an

experiment that is done a large number of times. This approach assigns the
probability of an event as a relative frequency of the number of times the event
occurred when the experiment if repeated a large number of times.

Subjective Approach assigns probabilities to event based on one’s own personal

judgment, knowledge, and biases.
Definition of Terms
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if and only if the events cannot occur at the
same time. Therefore, A ∩ B = ϕ so that the joint occurrence of events A and B becomes
an impossible event or P(A ∩ B) = 0.

The complement of an event E, denoted by E’, is the set of all outcomes in the sample
space S that are not included in event E.
Definition of Terms
Let A and B be two events in S such that B is a non-null event and called the
conditioning event. The probability that A will occur knowing B has occurred is
known as the conditional probability of event A given B, and is computed as:

P(A│B) = P(A ∩ B), where P(B) ≠ 0

P(B)

Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of A is not affected by the
occurrence of B and vice-versa, that is P(A│B) = P(A) or P(B│A) = P(B).
OPERATIONS ON
PROBABILITY
Theorem 1: Addition Rule. Let A and B be two events in the sample space S. The
probability that event A or B or both will occur is denoted by P(A U B) is given by:

P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

Corollary: If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then P(A U B) = P(A) +
P(B).
OPERATIONS ON
PROBABILITY
Theorem 2: Complement Rule. Given an event E, the probability of its complement
can be found by subtracting the probability of event E from 1, i.e., P(E’) = 1 – P(E)

Theorem 3: Multiplication Rule: Let A and B be two events in the sample space S.
The probability that events A and B will occur simultaneously is:
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) ∙ P(B│A) or P(A ∩ B) = P(B) ∙ P(A│B)

Corollary: If two events A and B are independent, then P(A ∩ B) = P(A) ∙ P(B).
Examples:

A box contains 3 green, 4 yellow, and 5 orange balls. If a ball is drawn at

random from the box, what is the probability that it is:

a. green?

b. yellow?
A box contains 3 green, 4 yellow, and 5 orange balls. If a ball is drawn at
random from the box, what is the probability that it is:

c. orange?

d. not green?
A number is selected at random from the digits 1 to 9. What is the probability that
the number obtained is:

a. an odd number?

c. less than 7?

d. greater than 5?
In an experiment, two dice are rolled. What is the probability that the numbers
obtained:

a. are both even numbers?

Operation 1: rolling the first die: n1= 6

Operation 2: rolling the second die: n2 = 6
6 x 6 = 36 outcomes

S = {11, 12, …, 16, 21, 22, …, 26, …, 61, 62, …66}

{22, 24, 26, 42, 44, 46, 62, 64, 66}

In an experiment, two dice are rolled. What is the probability that the numbers
obtained:
b. are both less than 6?
{11, 12, …,15, 21, 22, …, 25, …, 51, 52,…,55}

c. are both divisible by 2?

{22, 24, 26, 42, 44, 46, 62, 64, 66}
In an experiment, two dice are rolled. What is the probability that the numbers
obtained:
c. are equal?
{11, 22, 33, 44, 55, 66}

d. has a sum of 7?
{16, 25, 34, 43, 52, 61}
Given the four numbers 3, 5, 6, and 8. You are asked to form all possible
three-digit numbers with repetition. Find the probability that the three-digit
numbers formed are:
From 3, 5, 6, 8:
a. Odd Operation 1: first digit: n1 = 4
Three-digit numbers Operation 2: second digit: n2 = 4
Operation 1: first digit: n1 = 4
Operation 3: third digit: n3 = 2
Operation 2: second digit: n2 = 4
Odd numbers: 4 x 4 x 2 = 32
Operation 3: third digit: n3 = 4
4 x 4 x 4 = 64 numbers
Given the four numbers 3, 5, 6, and 8. You are asked to form all possible
three-digit numbers with repetition. Find the probability that the three-digit
numbers formed are:
b. greater than 500

From 3, 5, 6, 8:
Operation 1: first digit: n1 = 3
Operation 2: second digit: n2 = 4
Operation 3: third digit: n3 = 4
>500 numbers: 3 x 4 x 4 = 48
Given the four numbers 3, 5, 6, and 8. You are asked to form all possible
three-digit numbers with repetition. Find the probability that the three-digit
numbers formed are:
c. less than 500

From 3, 5, 6, 8:
Operation 1: first digit: n1 = 1
Operation 2: second digit: n2 = 4
Operation 3: third digit: n3 = 4
<500 numbers: 1 x 4 x 4 = 16
The probability of wife surviving for one year is 0.8, that of her husband is
0.7. What is the probability that:

a. both survive for one year?

P(W) = 0.8
P(H) = 0.7

P(W∩H) = P(W) ∙ P(H)

= 0.8 (0.7)
= 0.56
The probability of wife surviving for one year is 0.8, that of her husband is
0.7. What is the probability that:

b. the wife or the husband survives for one year?

P(W U H) = P(W) +P(H) - P(W∩H)

= 0.8 + 0.7 – 0.56
=0.94
The probability of wife surviving for one year is 0.8, that of her husband is
0.7. What is the probability that:

c. the wife survives for one year but the husband does not?

P(W∩H’) = P(W) ∙ P(H’)

= P(W) ∙ [1 – P(H)]
= 0.8 ∙ (1 – 0.7)
= 0.8(0.3)
= 0.24
The probability of wife surviving for one year is 0.8, that of her husband is
0.7. What is the probability that:

d. both do not survive for one year?

P(W’∩H’) = P(W’) ∙ P(H’)
= [1 – P(W)] ∙ [1 - P(H)]
= (1- 0.8) (1 – 0.7)
= 0.2(0.3)
= 0.06

P(W’∩H’) = P(W U H)’

= 1 – P(W U H)
= 1 – 0.94
= 0.06
The probability that A will get an offer on the first job he applies for is 0.6 and the
probability that he will get an offer on the second job he applies for is 0.45. The
probability that he will get an offer on both jobs is 0.15. What is the probability
that:
a. A gets an offer on the second job when he receives an offer on the first
job?
P(J1) = 0.6
P(J2) = 0.45
P(J1 ∩ J2) = 0.15
The probability that A will get an offer on the first job he applies for is 0.6 and the
probability that he will get an offer on the second job he applies for is 0.45. The
probability that he will get an offer on both jobs is 0.15. What is the probability
that:
b. A gets an offer on at least one of the jobs he applies for?

P(J1 U J2) = P(J1) + P(J2) – P(J1 ∩ J2)

= 0.6 + 0.45 – 0.15 = 0.9

c. A does not get an offer on the jobs he applies for?

P(J1’ ∩ J2’) = P(J1 U J2)’

= 1 – P(J1 U J2)
= 1 – 0.9 = 0.1
The following were the replies to the question “Do you think tax money
should be spent on education?”
GENDER REPLY TOTAL What is the probability that:
YES NO
Male 377 153 530 a. the respondent is a female?
Female 417 182 599
TOTAL 794 335 1129
The following were the replies to the question “Do you think tax money
should be spent on education?”
GENDER REPLY TOTAL What is the probability that:
YES NO
Male 377 153 530 a respondent is not in favor of
Female 417 182 599 spending tax money on
TOTAL 794 335 1129 education?
The following were the replies to the question “Do you think tax money
should be spent on education?”
GENDER REPLY TOTAL What is the probability that:
YES NO
Male 377 153 530 a respondent is female and
Female 417 182 599 favors spending tax money on
TOTAL 794 335 1129 education?
The following were the replies to the question “Do you think tax money
should be spent on education?”
GENDER REPLY TOTAL What is the probability that:
YES NO
Male 377 153 530 a respondent is male given that
Female 417 182 599 he is not in favor of spending
TOTAL 794 335 1129 tax money on education?