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73 220 Lecture18

This document discusses project scheduling using the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Critical Path Method (CPM) when activity times are uncertain. It explains how to calculate the expected time and variance of each activity using a three-point estimate approach. The critical path is determined using the expected activity times. The overall project completion time is a normal distribution based on summing the means and variances along the critical path. An example project network is provided to demonstrate calculating times, variances, critical path, and probability of completing within a certain time.

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78 views

73 220 Lecture18

This document discusses project scheduling using the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Critical Path Method (CPM) when activity times are uncertain. It explains how to calculate the expected time and variance of each activity using a three-point estimate approach. The critical path is determined using the expected activity times. The overall project completion time is a normal distribution based on summing the means and variances along the critical path. An example project network is provided to demonstrate calculating times, variances, critical path, and probability of completing within a certain time.

Uploaded by

api-26315128
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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You are on page 1/ 14

Project Scheduling: PERT/CPM

73-220

Lecture 18

1
Agenda
● Review of last class.
– PERT/CPM with known activity times
● Project scheduling – PERT/CPM
– Project scheduling with uncertain activity
times
● Next Class

2
Uncertain Activity Times: Mean
● In the three-time estimate approach, the time to
complete an activity is assumed to follow a Beta
distribution.
● An activity’s mean completion time is:
t = (a + 4m + b)/6

– a = the optimistic completion time estimate


– b = the pessimistic completion time estimate
– m = the most likely completion time estimate

3
Uncertain Activity Times: Variance

● An activity’s completion time variance is:

σ2 = ((b-a)/6)2

– a = the optimistic completion time estimate


– b = the pessimistic completion time estimate
– m = the most likely completion time estimate

4
Overall Completion Time

● In the three-time estimate approach, the


critical path is determined as if the mean
times for the activities were fixed times.
● The overall project completion time is
assumed to have a normal distribution with
mean equal to the sum of the means along the
critical path and variance equal to the sum of
the variances along the critical path.

5
Example: ABC Associates
● Consider the following project:
Immed. Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Activity Predec. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.)
A -- 4 6 8
B -- 1 4.5 5
C A 3 3 3
D A 4 5 6
E A 0.5 1 1.5
F B,C 3 4 5
G B,C 1 1.5 5
H E,F 5 6 7
I E,F 2 5 8
J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5
K G,I 3 5 7

6
Example: ABC Associates
● Project Network
D J
5 3
H
A E 6
6 1
I

Start
C F 5 Finish
3 4
K
B G 5
4 2

7
Example: ABC Associates
● Activity Expected Times and Variances
t = (a + 4m + b)/6 σ2 = ((b-a)/6)2
Activity Expected Time Variance
A 6 4/9
B 4 4/9
C 3 0
D 5 1/9
E 1 1/36
F 4 1/9
G 2 4/9
H 6 1/9
I 5 1
J 3 1/9
K 5 4/9
8
Example: ABC Associates
● Critical Path (A-C-F-I-K)
D 6 11 J 19 22
5 15 20 3 20 23
H 13 19
A 0 6 E 6 7 6 14 20
6 0 6 1 12 13
I 13 18
Start
C 6 9 F 9 13 5 13 18 Finish
3 6 9 4 9 13
K 18 23
B 0 4 G 9 11 5 18 23
4 5 9 216 18

9
Example: ABC Associates
● Earliest/Latest Times and Slack

Activity ES EF LS LF Slack
A 0 6 0 6 0*
B 0 4 5 9 5
C 6 9 6 9 0*
D 6 11 15 20 9
E 6 7 12 13 6
F 9 13 9 13 0*
G 9 11 16 18 7
H 13 19 14 20 1
I 13 18 13 18 0*
J 19 22 20 23 1
K 18 23 18 23 0*

10
Example: ABC Associates
● Determining the Critical Path
– A critical path is a path of activities, from the
Start node to the Finish node, with 0 slack
times.
– Critical Path: A–C– F– I– K
– The project completion time equals the
maximum of the activities’ earliest finish
times.

– Project Completion Time: 23 hours

11
Example: ABC Associates
● Probability the project will be completed within 24 hrs
σ2 = σ2A + σ2C + σ2F + σ2H + σ2K
= 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 1 + 4/9
= 2
σ = 1.414
z = (x - µ)/σ,
In this example, µ = 23, σ = 1.414, and x = 24, so the
corresponding z score is:
z = (24 - 23)/σ = (24-23)/1.414 = .71

From the Standard Normal Distribution table (You


should have learned this from your statistics course):

P(x < 24) = P(z < .71) = .5 + .2612 = .7612

12
Typical Questions
● Critical path.
● Overall completion time = max {earliest
finish for all activities}
● Overall completion time is a normal
distribution (mean, standard deviation).
● Look up normal table to determine some
probabilities given an overall completion
time, or to find critical completion time to
finish the project given a probability.
13
Next Class
● Do more questions from Chapter 10.

● Read Section 10.3 Considering cost-time


trade-off.

YOU LEARN DECISION ANALYSIS BY


DOING DECISION ANALYSIS!!

14

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