Statistics, Data,

and Statistical
Thinking
 3.1

Events, Sample Spaces,

and Probability
 Experiments & Sample Spaces
1. Experiment
• Process of observation that leads to a single
outcome that cannot be predicted with
certainty
2. Sample point
• Most basic outcome of an experiment
3. Sample space (S)
• Collection of all sample points
 Visualizing
Sample Space
1. Listing
S = {Head, Tail}

2. Venn Diagram

T
H
S
 Sample Space Examples

Experiment Sample Space

Toss a Coin, Note Face {Head, Tail}
Toss 2 Coins, Note Faces {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Select 1 Card, Note Kind {2♥, 2♠, ..., A♦} (52)
Select 1 Card, Note Color {Red, Black}
Play a Football Game {Win, Lose, Tie}
Inspect a Part, Note Quality {Defective, Good}
Observe Gender {Male, Female}
 Events

1. Specific collection of sample points

2. Simple Event
Contains only one sample point
3. Compound Event
Contains two or more sample points
 Venn Diagram

Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Note Faces.

Sample Space S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Compound
Event: At
least one
TH Tail
Outcome HH HT
TT
S
 Event Examples
Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Note Faces.
Sample Space: HH, HT, TH, TT
Event Outcomes in Event
1 Head & 1 Tail HT, TH
Head on 1st Coin HH, HT
At Least 1 Head HH, HT, TH
Heads on Both HH
Probabilities
 What is Probability?
1. Numerical measure of
the likelihood that event 1 Certain
will occur
P(Event)
P(A)
0.5
Prob(A)
2. Lies between 0 & 1
3. Sum of sample points
is 1 0 Impossible
Steps for Calculating Probability
1. Define the experiment; describe the process
used to make an observation and the type of
observation that will be recorded.
2. List the sample points.
3. Assign probabilities to the sample points.
4. Determine the collection of sample points
contained in the event of interest.
5. Sum the sample points probabilities to get the
event probability.
 Combinations Rule
A sample of n elements is to be drawn from a set
of N elements. Then, the number of different
samples possible is denoted by
 N  and is equal to
 n 
 N N!
 n   n!N  n !
where the factorial symbol (!) means that
n!  n  n  1 n  2 ...3 2 1

For example, 5!  5  4  3 2 1 0! is defined to be 1.

 Example
Suppose you plan to invest equal amounts of
money in each of five business ventures. If you
have 20 ventures from which to make the
selection, how many different samples of five
ventures can be selected from the 20?
For this example, N = 20 and n = 5. Then the
number of different samples of 5 that can be
selected from the 20 ventures is
 20  20! 20!
 5   5!(20  5)!  5!15!
 
20  19  18...3  2  1 20  19  18  17  16
   15,504
(5  4  3  2  1)(15  14  13...3  2  1) 5  4  3  2 1
 3.2

Unions and Intersections.

 Compound Events

Compound events:
Composition of two or more other events.
Can be formed in two different ways.
 Unions & Intersections
1. Union
Outcomes in either events A or B or both
‘OR’ statement
Denoted by  symbol (i.e., A  B)
2. Intersection
Outcomes in both events A and B
‘AND’ statement
Denoted by  symbol (i.e., A  B)
 Event Union:
Venn Diagram
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind, Color
& Suit.
Event
Ace Black Black:
Sample
Space: 2,
2, 2,
2,...,
2, ..., A S A
Event Ace: Event Ace  Black:
A, A, A, A A, ..., A, 2, ..., K
 Event Union:
Two–Way Table
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind, Color
& Suit. Color Simple
Sample Space Type Red Total
Black Event
(S): Ace:
Ace Ace & Ace & Ace
2, 2, Red Black A,
2, ..., A
Non-Ace Non & Non & Non-
Red Black Ace
A,
Event Total Red Black S
Ace  Black: A,
Simple Event Black:
A,..., A, 2, ..., K A
2, ..., A
 Event Intersection:
Venn Diagram
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind, Color
& Suit.
Event
Ace Black Black:
Sample
Space: 2,...,A
2, 2,

2, ..., A S
Event Ace: Event Ace  Black:
A, A, A, A A, A
 Event Intersection:
Two–Way Table
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind, Color
& Suit.
Color Simple
Sample Space Type Red Total
Black Event
(S): Ace:
Ace Ace & Ace & Ace
2, 2, Red Black A, A,
2, ..., A
Non-Ace Non & Non & Non-
A, A
Event
Red Black Ace
Total Red Black S
Ace  Black:
A, A Simple Event Black: 2, ..., A
 Compound Event Probability

1. Numerical measure of likelihood that compound

event will occur
2. Can often use two–way table
Two variables only
 Event Probability Using
Two–Way Table

Event
Event B1 B2 Total
A1 P(A 1  B1) P(A 1  B2) P(A 1)
A2 P(A 2  B1) P(A 2  B2) P(A 2)
Total P(B 1) P(B 2) 1

Joint Probability Marginal (Simple) Probability

 Two–Way Table Example

Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind & Color.

Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2/52 2/52 4/52
Non-Ace 24/52 24/52 48/52 P(Ace)

Total 26/52 26/52 52/52

P(Red) P(Ace  Red)

 Thinking Challenge
What’s the Probability?
1. P(A) =
2. P(D) =
3. P(C  B) = Event
4. P(A  D) = Event C D Total
A 4 2 6
5. P(B  D) =
B 1 3 4
Total 5 5 10
 Solution*
The Probabilities Are:
1. P(A) = 6/10
2. P(D) = 5/10
3. P(C  B) = 1/10 Event
4. P(A  D) = 9/10 Event C D Total
A 4 2 6
5. P(B  D) = 3/10
B 1 3 4
Total 5 5 10
 3.3

Complementary Events
 Complementary Events
Complement of Event A
The event that A does not occur
All events not in A
Denote complement of A by AC

AC
A

S
 Rule of Complements
The sum of the probabilities of complementary
events equals 1:

P(A) + P(AC) = 1

AC
A

S
 Complement of Event
Example
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Color.

Black
Sample
Space:
2, 2,

2, ..., A S
Event Black: Complement of Event Black,
2, 2, ..., A BlackC: 2, 2, ..., A, A
 3.4

The Additive Rule and

Mutually Exclusive Events
 Mutually Exclusive Events

Mutually Exclusive Events

Events do not occur
simultaneously

A  B does not contain
any sample points
 Mutually Exclusive
Events Example
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind & Suit.

Sample
 Outcomes
in Event
Space: Heart:

2, 2,

2, ..., A
 S
2, 3, 4 ,

..., A

Event Spade:
Events  and are Mutually Exclusive
2, 3, 4, ..., A
 Additive Rule
1. Used to get compound probabilities for union of
events
2. P(A OR B) = P(A  B)
= P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)
3. For mutually exclusive events:
P(A OR B) = P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)
 Additive Rule Example

Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind & Color.

Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52

P(Ace  Black) = P(Ace) + P(Black) – P(Ace  Black)

4 26 2 28
= + – =
52 52 52 52
 Thinking Challenge

Using the additive rule, what is the probability?

1. P(A  D) =
2. P(B  C) = Event
Event C D Total
A 4 2 6
B 1 3 4
Total 5 5 10
 Solution*

Using the additive rule, the probabilities are:

1. P(A  D) = P(A) + P(D) – P(A  D)

6 5 2 9
= + – =
10 10 10 10

2. P(B  C) = P(B) + P(C) – P(B  C)

4 5 1 8
= + – =
10 10 10 10
 3.5

Conditional Probability
 Conditional Probability
1. Event probability given that another event
occurred
2. Revise original sample space to account for
new information
Eliminates certain outcomes

3. P(A | B) = P(A and B) = P(A  B)

P(B) P(B)
Conditional Probability Using
Venn Diagram

Black ‘Happens’:
Eliminates All
Ace Black Other Outcomes

Black
S (S)

Event (Ace  Black)

 Conditional Probability Using
Two–Way Table
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind & Color.
Color
Type Red Black Total Revised
Sample
Ace 2 2 4 Space
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
P(Ace  Black) 2 / 52 2
P(Ace | Black) =  
P(Black) 26 / 52 26
 Thinking Challenge
Using the table then the formula, what’s the
probability?

1. P(A|D) = Event
2. P(C|B) = Event C D Total
A 4 2 6
B 1 3 4
Total 5 5 10
 Solution*

Using the formula, the probabilities are:

P A  B  2 5 2
P A D    
P D  5 5
10

P C  B  110 1
P C B    
P B  4 4
10
 3.6

The Multiplicative Rule

and Independent Events
 Multiplicative Rule
1. Used to get compound probabilities for
intersection of events
2. P(A and B) = P(A  B)
= P(A)  P(B|A)
= P(B)  P(A|B)
3. For Independent Events:
P(A and B) = P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B)
 Multiplicative Rule Example

Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind & Color.

Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52

P(Ace  Black) = P(Ace)∙P(Black | Ace)

 4  2  2
    
 52   4  52
 Statistical Independence
1. Event occurrence does not affect probability of
another event
Toss 1 coin twice
2. Causality not implied
3. Tests for independence
P(A | B) = P(A)
P(B | A) = P(B)
P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B)
 Thinking Challenge

Using the multiplicative rule, what’s the

probability?

1. P(C  B) = Event
Event C D Total
2. P(B  D) =
A 4 2 6
3. P(A  B) = 1 3 4
B
Total 5 5 10
 Solution*

Using the multiplicative rule, the probabilities are:

5 1 1
P C  B   P C  P B C    
10 5 10

4 3 6
P B  D   P B  P D B    
10 5 25

P A  B   P A  P B A   0
 Tree Diagram
Experiment: Select 2 pens from 20 pens: 14
blue & 6 red. Don’t replace.
Dependent!
5/19 R P(R  R)=(6/20)(5/19) =3/38

6/20 R
14/19 B P(R  B)=(6/20)(14/19) =21/95

14/20
6/19 R P(B  R)=(14/20)(6/19) =21/95
B
13/19
B P(B  B)=(14/20)(13/19) =91/190
 3.7

Bayes’s Rule
 Bayes’s Rule

Given k mutually exclusive and exhaustive events B1,

B1, . . . Bk , such that
P(B1) + P(B2) + … + P(Bk) = 1,
and an observed event A, then

P(Bi  A)
P(Bi | A) 
P( A)
P(Bi )P( A | Bi )

P(B1 )P( A | B1 )  P(B2 )P( A | B2 )  ...  P(Bk )P( A | Bk )
 Bayes’s Rule Example
A company manufactures MP3 players at two
factories. Factory I produces 60% of the MP3
players and Factory II produces 40%. Two
percent of the MP3 players produced at Factory I
are defective, while 1% of Factory II’s are
defective. An MP3 player is selected at random
and found to be defective. What is the probability
it came from Factory I?
 Bayes’s Rule Example
0.02 Defective
Factory
0 .6 I
0.98 Good

0.01 Defective
0 .4 Factory
II
0.99 Good
P(I | D) 
P(I )P(D | I ) 0.6  0.02
  0.75
P(I )P(D | I )  P(II )P(D | II ) 0.6  0.02  0.4  0.01
 Key Ideas

Probability Rules for k Sample Points,

S1 , S2 , S3 , . . . , Sk

1. 0 ≤ P(Si) ≤ 1

2.
 P S   1
i
 Key Ideas

Random Sample

All possible such samples have equal probability of

being selected.
 Key Ideas

Combinations Rule

Counting number of samples of n elements selected

from N elements

N N! N  N  1 N  2  N  n  1

 n   n! N  n ! 
    n  n  1 n  2  2 1
 Key Ideas

Bayes’s Rule

P( Bi ) P( A | Bi )
P( Bi | A) 
P ( B1 ) P ( A | B1 )  P ( B2 ) P ( A | B2 )  ...  P ( Bk ) P ( A | Bk )
 Thinking Challenge
You’re taking a 33 question
multiple choice test. Each
question has 4 choices.
Clueless on 1 question, you
decide to guess. What’s the
chance you’ll get it right?
If you guessed on all 33
questions, what would be your
grade? Would you pass?
 4.1

Two Types of Random

Variables
 Discrete Random Variable

Random variables that can assume a countable

number (finite or infinite) of values are called
discrete.
 Discrete Random Variable
Examples

Experiment Random Possible

Variable Values
Make 100 Sales Calls # Sales 0, 1, 2, ..., 100

Inspect 70 Radios # Defective 0, 1, 2, ..., 70

Answer 33 Questions # Correct 0, 1, 2, ..., 33

Count Cars at Toll # Cars 0, 1, 2, ..., ∞

Between 11:00 & 1:00 Arriving
 Continuous
Random Variable

Random variables that can assume values

corresponding to any of the points contained in one
or more intervals (i.e., values that are infinite and
uncountable) are called continuous.
Continuous Random Variable
Examples

Experiment Random Possible

Variable Values
Weigh 100 People Weight 45.1, 78, ...
Measure Part Life Hours 900, 875.9, ...
Amount spent on food $ amount 54.12, 42, ...
Measure Time Inter-Arrival 0, 1.3, 2.78, ...
Between Arrivals Time
 4.2

Probability Distributions for

Discrete Random Variables
 Discrete
Probability Distribution

The probability distribution of a discrete

random variable is a graph, table, or formula that
specifies the probability associated with each
possible value the random variable can assume.
 Requirements for the
Probability Distribution of a
Discrete Random Variable x
1. p(x) ≥ 0 for all values of x
2.  p(x) = 1

where the summation of p(x) is over all possible

values of x.
 Discrete Probability
Distribution Example
Experiment: Toss 2 coins. Count number of
tails.
Probability Distribution
Values, x Probabilities,
p(x)
0 1/4 = 0.25
1 2/4 = 0.50
2 1/4 = 0.25
© 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.
 Visualizing Discrete
Probability Distributions
Listing Table
{ (0, .25), (1, .50), (2, .25) } f(x) p(x)
# Tails Count
0 1 .25
1 2 .50
Graph
2 1 .25
p(x)
.50
.25 Formula
.00 x n!
p (x ) = px(1 – p)n – x
0 1 2 x!(n – x)!
 Summary Measures
1. Expected Value (Mean of probability
distribution)
Weighted average of all possible values
 = E(x) = x p(x)
2. Variance
Weighted average of squared deviation
about mean
2 = E[(x (x p(x)
3. Standard Deviation
●   2
 Summary Measures
Calculation Table

x p(x) x p(x) x– (x – )2 (x – )2p(x)

Total xp(x) (x p(x)

 Thinking Challenge

You toss 2 coins. You’re

interested in the number of
tails. What are the expected
value, variance, and
standard deviation of this
random variable, number of
tails?
© 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.
 Expected Value & Variance
Solution*

x p(x) x p(x) x– (x – ) 2 (x – ) 2p(x)

0 .25 0 –1.00 1.00 .25

1 .50 .50 0 0 0
2 .25 .50 1.00 1.00 .25
 = 1.0 2 = .50
 = .71
Probability Rules for Discrete
Random Variables
Let x be a discrete random variable with probability
distribution p(x), mean µ, and standard deviation .
Then, depending on the shape of p(x), the
following probability statements can be made:
Chebyshev’s Rule Empirical Rule
P x    x  µ    0  .68
P x  2  x  µ  2   34  .95

P x  3  x  µ  3   89  1.00
 4.3

The Binomial Distribution

 Binomial Distribution
Number of ‘successes’ in a sample of n
observations (trials)
Number of reds in 15 spins of roulette wheel
Number of defective items in a batch of 5 items
Number correct on a 33 question exam
Number of customers who purchase out of 100
customers who enter store (each customer is
equally likely to purchase)
 Binomial Probability
Characteristics of a Binomial Experiment
1. The experiment consists of n identical trials.
2. There are only two possible outcomes on each trial.
We will denote one outcome by S (for success) and
the other by F (for failure).
3. The probability of S remains the same from trial to trial.
This probability is denoted by p, and the probability of
F is denoted by q. Note that q = 1 – p.
4. The trials are independent.
5. The binomial random variable x is the number of S’s in
n trials.
 Binomial Probability
Distribution
 n  x n x n! n x
p( x)    p q  p (1  p )
x

 x x ! (n  x )!
p(x) = Probability of x ‘Successes’
p = Probability of a ‘Success’ on a
single trial
q = 1–p
n = Number of trials
x = Number of ‘Successes’ in n trials
(x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)
n–x = Number of failures in n trials
 Binomial Probability
Distribution Example

Experiment: Toss 1 coin 5 times in a row. Note

number of tails. What’s the probability of 3
tails? p( x) 
n!
p x (1  p)n  x
x !(n  x)!
© 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

5!
p (3)  .53 (1  .5)53
3!(5  3)!

 .3125
Binomial Probability Table
(Portion)
n=5 p
k .01 … 0.50 … .99
0 .951 … .031 … .000
1 .999 … .188 … .000
2 1.000 … .500 … .000
3 1.000 … .812 … .001
4 1.000 … .969 … .049
Cumulative Probabilities
p(x ≤ 3) – p(x ≤ 2) = .812 – .500 = .312
 Binomial Distribution
Characteristics
n = 5 p = 0.1
P(X)
Mean 1.0
  E(x)  np .5
.0 X
Standard Deviation 0 1 2 3 4 5
n = 5 p = 0.5
  npq P(X)
.6
.4
.2
.0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5
 Binomial Distribution
Thinking Challenge
You’re a telemarketer selling
service contracts for Macy’s.
You’ve sold 20 in your last 100
calls (p = .20). If you call 12
people tonight, what’s the
probability of
A. No sales?
B. Exactly 2 sales?
C. At most 2 sales?
D. At least 2 sales?
Binomial Distribution Solution*

n = 12, p = .20
A. p(0) = .0687
B. p(2) = .2835
C. p(at most 2) = p(0) + p(1) + p(2)
= .0687 + .2062 + .2835
= .5584
D. p(at least 2) = p(2) + p(3)...+ p(12)
= 1 – [p(0) + p(1)]
= 1 – .0687 – .2062
= .7251
 4.4

Other Discrete Distributions:

Poisson and Hypergeometric
 Poisson Distribution

1. Number of events that occur in an interval

• events per unit
— Time, Length, Area, Space
2. Examples
Number of customers arriving in 20
minutes
Number of strikes per year in the U.S.
Number of defects per lot (group) of DVD’s
Characteristics of a Poisson
Random Variable
1. Consists of counting number of times an event
occurs during a given unit of time or in a given
area or volume (any unit of measurement).
2. The probability that an event occurs in a given
unit of time, area, or volume is the same for all
units.
3. The number of events that occur in one unit of
time, area, or volume is independent of the
number that occur in any other mutually
exclusive unit.
4. The mean number of events in each unit is
denoted by the Greek letter lambda, 
 Poisson Probability
Distribution Function
x –
e
p (x )  (x = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . .)
x!


p(x) = Probability of x given 
 = Mean (expected) number of events in
unit
e = 2.71828 . . . (base of natural logarithm)
x = Number of events per unit
 Poisson Probability
Distribution Function
= 0.5
P(X)
.8
Mean .6
.4
  E(x)   .2
.0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5

= 6
P(X)
.3
Standard Deviation .2
  .1
.0 X
Poisson Distribution Example
Customers arrive at a
rate of 72 per hour.
What is the probability
of 4 customers
arriving in 3 minutes?
© 1995 Corel Corp.
Poisson Distribution Solution
72 Per Hr. = 1.2 Per Min. = 3.6 Per 3 Min. Interval


 e
x
p( x) 
x!
 3.6 
4 3.6
e
p (4)   .1912
4!
Poisson Probability Table
(Portion)
x
 0 … 3 4 … 9
.02 .980 …
: : : : : : :
3.4 .033 … .558 .744 … .997
3.6 .027 … .515 .706 … .996
3.8 .022 … .473 .668 … .994
: : : : : : :
Cumulative Probabilities
p(x ≤ 4) – p(x ≤ 3) = .706 – .515 = .191
 Thinking Challenge
You work in Quality
Assurance for an investment
firm. A clerk enters 75
words per minute with 6
errors per hour. What is the
probability of 0 errors in a
255-word bond transaction?

© 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

Poisson Distribution Solution:
Finding *
75 words/min = (75 words/min)(60 min/hr)
= 4500 words/hr
6 errors/hr = 6 errors/4500 words
= .00133 errors/word
In a 255-word transaction (interval):
 = (.00133 errors/word )(255 words)
= .34 errors/255-word transaction
Poisson Distribution Solution:
Finding p(0)*


 e
x
p( x) 
x!
.34 
0 .34
e
p (0)   .7118
0!
 Characteristics of a
Hypergeometric
Random Variable
1. The experiment consists of randomly drawing
n elements without replacement from a set of
N elements, r of which are S’s (for success)
and (N – r) of which are F’s (for failure).
2. The hypergeometric random variable x is the
number of S’s in the draw of n elements.
 Hypergeometric Probability
Distribution Function
 r   N  r
 x   n  x 
p x   [x = Maximum [0, n – (N – r), …,
 N Minimum (r, n)]
 n 

nr r N  r n N  n 
µ  
2

N N 2 N  1

where . . .
Hypergeometric Probability
Distribution Function

N = Total number of elements

r = Number of S’s in the N elements
n = Number of elements drawn
x = Number of S’s drawn in the n elements
 4.5

Probability Distributions for

Continuous Random Variables
 Continuous Probability
Density Function
The graphical form of the probability distribution for
a continuous random variable x is a smooth curve
 Continuous Probability
Density Function
This curve, a function of x, is denoted by the
symbol f(x) and is variously called a probability
density function (pdf), a frequency function, or a
probability distribution.
The areas under a probability
distribution correspond to
probabilities for x. The area A
beneath the curve between
two points a and b is the
probability that x assumes a
value between a and b.
 4.6

The Normal Distribution

 Importance of
Normal Distribution
1. Describes many random processes or
continuous phenomena
2. Can be used to approximate discrete
probability distributions
• Example: binomial
3. Basis for classical statistical inference
 Normal Distribution

1. ‘Bell-shaped’ & f(x )

symmetrical
2. Mean, median,
mode are equal
x

Mean
Median
Mode
 Probability Density Function
2
 1   x  
1    
 2    

f ( x)  e
 2
where
µ = Mean of the normal random variable
x
 = Standard deviation
π = 3.1415 . . .
e = 2.71828 . . .
P(x < a) is obtained from a table of
normal
probabilities
 Effect of Varying
Parameters ( & )
 Normal Distribution
Probability
Probability is
d
area under
curve!
P(c  x  d)  
c
f (x)dx ?

f(x)

x
c d
Standard Normal Distribution
The standard normal distribution is a normal
distribution with µ = 0 and  = 1. A random
variable with a standard normal distribution,
denoted by the symbol z, is called a standard
normal random variable.
 The Standard Normal Table:
P(0 < z < 1.96)
Standardized Normal
Probability Table (Portion)
Z .04 .05 .06 s=1
1.8 .4671 .4678 .4686
.4750
1.9 .4738 .4744 .4750
2.0 .4793 .4798 .4803
m= 0 1.96 z
2.1 .4838 .4842 .4846 Shaded area
Probabilities exaggerated
 The Standard Normal Table:
P(–1.26  z  1.26)

Standardized Normal Distribution

s=1

.3962 .3962 P(–1.26 ≤ z ≤ 1.26)

= .3962 + .3962
= .7924
–1.26 1.26 z
m=0
Shaded area exaggerated
 The Standard Normal Table:
P(z > 1.26)

Standardized Normal Distribution

s=1

.5000
P(z > 1.26)
.3962 = .5000 – .3962
= .1038
1.26 z
m=0
 The Standard Normal Table:
P(–2.78  z  –2.00)
Standardized Normal Distribution
s=1
.4973 P(–2.78 ≤ z ≤ –2.00)
= .4973 – .4772
.4772
= .0201
–2.78 –2.00 z
m=0
Shaded area exaggerated
 The Standard Normal Table:
P(z > –2.13)

Standardized Normal Distribution

s=1
.4834 .5000 P(z > –2.13)
= .4834 + .5000
= .9834
–2.13 z
m=0
Shaded area exaggerated
 Non-standard Normal
Distribution
Normal distributions differ by Each distribution would
mean & standard deviation. require its own table.

f(x)

x That’s an infinite
number of tables!
Converting a Normal Distribution to
a Standard Normal Distribution

If x is a normal random variable with mean μ and

standard deviation , then the random variable z,
defined by the formula
x µ
z


has a standard normal distribution. The value z

describes the number of standard deviations
between x and µ.
 Standardize the
Normal Distribution

x
z
Normal  Standardized Normal
Distribution Distribution
s s=1

m x m= 0 z
One table!
 Finding a Probability
Corresponding to a Normal
Random Variable
1. Sketch normal distribution, indicate mean, and shade
the area corresponding to the probability you want.
2. Convert the boundaries of the shaded area from x
values to standard normal random variable z
x µ
z

Show the z values under corresponding x values.
3. Use Table II in Appendix D to find the areas
corresponding to the z values. Use symmetry when
necessary.
 Non-standard Normal μ = 5,
σ = 10: P(5 < x < 6.2)
x 6.2  5
z   .12
Normal  10 Standardized Normal
Distribution Distribution

s = 10 s=1
.0478

m= 5 6.2 x m= 0 .12 z
Shaded area exaggerated
 Non-standard Normal μ = 5,
σ = 10: P(3.8  x  5)
x 3.8  5
z   .12
 10
Normal Standardized Normal
Distribution Distribution

s = 10 s=1
.0478

3.8 m = 5 x -.12 m = 0 z
Shaded area exaggerated
 Non-standard Normal μ = 5,
σ = 10: P(2.9  x  7.1)
x 2.9  5 x 7.1  5
z   .21 z   .21
 10  10
Normal Standardized Normal
Distribution Distribution
s = 10 s=1
.1664

.0832 .0832

2.9 5 7.1 x -.21 0 .21 z

Shaded area exaggerated
 Non-standard Normal μ = 5,
σ = 10: P(x  8)
x 85
z   .30
Normal
 10 Standardized Normal
Distribution Distribution
s = 10 s=1
.5000
.3821
.1179

m=5 8 x m=0 .30 z

Shaded area exaggerated
 Non-standard Normal μ = 5,
σ = 10: P(7.1  X  8)
x 7.1  5 x 85
z   .21 z   .30
 10  10
Normal Standardized Normal
Distribution Distribution
s = 10 s=1

.1179
.0347
.0832

m=5 7.1 8 x m=0 .21 .30 z

Shaded area exaggerated
 Normal Distribution Thinking
Challenge
You work in Quality Control for
GE. Light bulb life has a
normal distribution with
= 2000 hours and = 200
hours. What’s the probability
that a bulb will last
A. between 2000 and 2400
hours?
B. less than 1470 hours?
 Solution* P(2000  x  2400)

x 2400  2000

z   2.0
 200
Normal Standardized Normal
Distribution Distribution
s = 200 s=1

.4772

m = 2000 2400 x m=0 2.0 z

 Solution* P(x  1470)

x 1470  2000

z   2.65
 200
Normal Standardized Normal
Distribution Distribution
s = 200 s=1
.5000

.0040 .4960

1470 m = 2000 x –2.65 m = 0 z

 Finding z-Values
for Known Probabilities
What is Z, given Standardized Normal
P(z) = .1217? Probability Table (Portion)

s=1 Z .00 .01 0.2

.1217
0.0 .0000 .0040 .0080

0.1 .0398 .0438 .0478

m=0 ?
.31 z 0.2 .0793 .0832 .0871

Shaded area 0.3 .1179 .1217 .1255

exaggerated
 Finding x Values
for Known Probabilities
Normal Distribution Standardized Normal Distribution
s = 10 s=1
.1217 .1217

m = 5 8.1
? x m = 0 .31 z

x    z    5  .3110  
Shaded areas exaggerated
 Normal Approximation of
Binomial Distribution
1. Useful because not all
binomial tables exist
2. Requires large sample n = 10 p = 0.50
size p(x)
.3
3. Gives approximate .2
probability only .1
.0 x
4. Need correction for 0 2 4 6 8 10
continuity
 Why Probability
Is Approximate
Probability Added
p(x) by Normal Curve
.3
.2 Probability Lost by
Normal Curve
.1
.0 x
0 2 4 6 8 10
Binomial Probability: Normal Probability: Area Under
Bar Height Curve from 3.5 to 4.5
 Correction for Continuity

1. A 1/2 unit adjustment to

discrete variable
2. Used when
approximating a
discrete distribution
with a continuous
distribution
3. Improves accuracy
3.5 4 4.5
(4 – .5) (4 + .5)
 Using a Normal Distribution
to Approximate Binomial
Probabilities
1. Determine n and p for the binomial distribution,
then calculate the interval:
  3  np  3 npq
If interval lies in the range 0 to n, the normal
distribution will provide a reasonable
approximation to the probabilities of most
binomial events.
 Using a Normal Distribution
to Approximate Binomial
Probabilities
2. Express the binomial probability to be
approximated by the form
P x  a  or P x  b   P x  a 
For example,
P x  3  P x  2 
P x  5   1  P x  4 
P 7  x  10   P x  10   P x  6 
 Using a Normal Distribution
to Approximate Binomial
Probabilities
3. For each value of interest a, the correction for
continuity is (a + .5), and the corresponding
standard normal z-value is

z
a  .5   µ

 Using a Normal Distribution
to Approximate Binomial
Probabilities
4. Sketch the approximating normal distribution and
shade the area corresponding to the event of
interest. Using Table II and the z-value (step 3),
find the shaded area.
This is the approximate
probability of the
binomial event.
 Normal Approximation
Example
What is the normal approximation of p(x = 4)
given n = 10, and p = 0.5?
P(x)
.3
.2
.1
.0 x
0 2 4 6 8 10
3.5 4.5
 Normal Approximation
Solution
1. Calculate the interval:
np  3 np 1  p   10 0.5   3 10 0.5 1  0.5 
 5  4.74  0.26, 9.74 
Interval lies in range 0 to 10, so normal
approximation can be used

2. Express binomial probability in form:

P x  4   P x  4   P x  3
 Normal Approximation
Solution
3. Compute standard normal z values:

z
a  .5   n  p

3.5  10 .5 
 0.95
n  p 1  p  10 .5 1  .5 

z
a  .5   n  p

4.5  10 .5 
 0.32
n  p 1  p  10 .5 1  .5 
 Normal Approximation
Solution
4. Sketch the approximate normal distribution:
.3289 =0
- .1255  =1
.2034
.1255

.3289

-.95 -.32 z
 Normal Approximation
Solution
5. The exact probability from the binomial formula is
0.2051 (versus .2034)
p(x)
.3
.2
.1
.0 x
0 2 4 6 8 10
 4.7

Descriptive Methods for

Assessing Normality
Determining Whether the Data
Are from an Approximately
Normal Distribution
1. Construct either a histogram or stem-and-leaf
display for the data and note the shape of the
graph. If the data are approximately normal,
the shape of the histogram or stem-and-leaf
display will be similar to the normal curve.
Determining Whether the Data
Are from an Approximately
Normal Distribution
2. Compute the intervals x  s, x  2s, and x  3s,
and determine the percentage of
measurements falling in each. If the data are
approximately normal, the percentages will be
approximately equal to 68%, 95%, and 100%,
respectively; from the Empirical Rule (68%,
95%, 99.7%).
Determining Whether the Data
Are from an Approximately
Normal Distribution
3. Find the interquartile range, IQR, and standard
deviation, s, for the sample, then calculate the
ratio IQR/s. If the data are approximately
normal, then IQR/s ≈ 1.3.

IQR Q3  Q1

s s
Determining Whether the Data
Are from an Approximately
Normal Distribution
4. Examine a normal
probability plot for the

Expected z–score
data. If the data are
approximately
normal, the points will
fall (approximately)
on a straight line.
Observed value
 Normal Probability Plot

A normal probability plot for a data set is a

scatterplot with the ranked data values on one axis
and their corresponding expected z-scores from a
standard normal distribution on the other axis.
[Note: Computation of the expected standard
normal z-scores are beyond the scope of this text.
Therefore, we will rely on available statistical
software packages to generate a normal
probability plot.]
 4.8

Other Continuous
Distributions:
Uniform and Exponential
 Uniform Distribution
Continuous random variables that appear to have
equally likely outcomes over their range of
possible values possess a uniform probability
distribution.
Suppose the
random variable x
can assume values
only in an interval c
≤ x ≤ d. Then the
uniform frequency
function has a
rectangular shape.
 Probability Distribution for a
Uniform Random Variable x
1
Probability density function: f (x)  cxd
dc

cd dc
Mean:   Standard Deviation: 
2 12

P a  x  b   b  a  d  c , c  a  b  d
Uniform Distribution Example
You’re production manager of a soft
drink bottling company. You believe
that when a machine is set to
dispense 12 oz., it really dispenses
between 11.5 and 12.5 oz.
inclusive. Suppose the amount
dispensed has a uniform SODA
distribution. What is the probability
that less than 11.8 oz. is
dispensed?
 Uniform Distribution Solution
f(x)
1 1 1.0

d  c 12.5  11.5
1
  1.0
1
x
11.5 11.8 12.5

P(11.5  x  11.8) = (Base)/(Height)

= (11.8 – 11.5)/(1) = .30
 Exponential Distribution
The length of time between emergency arrivals at a
hospital, the length of time between breakdowns of
manufacturing equipment, and the length of time
between catastrophic events (e.g., a stock market
crash), are all continuous random phenomena that
we might want to describe probabilistically.
The length of time or the distance between
occurrences of random events like these can often be
described by the exponential probability
distribution. For this reason, the exponential
distribution is sometimes called the waiting-time
distribution.
 Probability Distribution
for an Exponential
Random Variable x
x
1
x  0

Probability density function: f (x)  e 

Mean:  

Standard Deviation:   
Finding the Area to the Right
of a Number a for an
Exponential Distribution
 Exponential Distribution
Example
Suppose the length of time (in hours) between
emergency arrivals at a certain hospital is
modeled as an exponential distribution with  = 2.
What is the probability that more than 5 hours
pass without an emergency arrival?
x
1
x  0

Mean:     2 f (x)  e 

Standard Deviation:    2
 Exponential Distribution
Solution
Probability is the area A
to the right of a = 5.
a   
 52
A e e  e2.5
Use stat software:
A  e2.5  .082085

Probability that more than 5 hours pass between

emergency arrivals is about .08.
 Key Ideas
Properties of Probability Distributions
Discrete Distributions
1. p(x) ≥ 0
2.
 p x   1
all x

Continuous Distributions
1. P(x = a) = 0
2. P(a < x < b) = area under curve between a
and b
 Key Ideas

Normal Approximation to Binomial

x is binomial (n, p)

P x  a   P z  a  .5   µ
 Key Ideas

Methods for Assessing Normality

1. Histogram
 Key Ideas

Methods for Assessing Normality

2. Stem-and-leaf display
1 7
2 3389
3 245677
4 19
5 2
 Key Ideas

Methods for Assessing Normality

3. (IQR)/S ≈ 1.3

4. Normal probability plot