0% found this document useful (0 votes)

8 views

Conditional Probability 1

This document discusses conditional probability through three examples. 1) It provides probabilities for events A and B that are mutually exclusive and independent. 2) It shows a Venn diagram for independent events C and D and calculates probabilities. 3) A problem calculates probabilities for selecting counters from a bag without replacement.

Uploaded by

teeformee

We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.

Available Formats

Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

0% found this document useful (0 votes)

8 views

Conditional Probability 1

Uploaded by

teeformee

We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.

Available Formats

Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

You are on page 1/ 32

Conditional Probability 08/11/2023

1) Events and are mutually exclusive. and .

Find:
a) 0.75b) c) 0 0.25

2) Events and are independent. and .

a) Find 0.12
b) Draw a Venn diagram to show events C and D and all possible
combinations of outcomes C D

c) Find 0.32 0.48

0.08 0.12

3) A bag contains seven counters numbered 1-7.

0.32
Two counters are selected at random without
replacement. Find the probability that: 2
a) Both counters are odd-numbered 76
b) At least one counter is odd numbered 7
Set Notation
The event ‘A and B’ can be 𝐴 𝐵
written as . The ‘’ stands for
‘intersection’ 𝐴∩ 𝐵

The event ‘A or B’ can be 𝐴 𝐵

written as . The ‘’ stands for 𝐴∪ 𝐵
‘union’

The event ‘not A’ can be 𝐴 𝐵

written as (it is sometimes
𝐴′
called the complement of A)

2A
Set Notation
A card is selected at random 𝐴 𝐷
from a standard pack of
playing cards. Let A be the 3 1 12
event that the card is an Ace,
and D be the event that the 36
card is a diamond.
There is one card that is both an
ace and a diamond
a) Draw a Venn diagram to
represent this information. There are 3 aces that are not
diamonds

There are 12 diamonds that are

not aces

After this, 36 cards remain that

are neither aces or diamonds

2A
Set Notation
A card is selected at random 𝐴 𝐷
from a standard pack of
playing cards. Let A be the 3 1 12
event that the card is an Ace,
and D be the event that the 36
card is a diamond.
‘Probability of the card being an ace and a 1
¿
diamond’ 52
Find:
b) ‘Probability of the card being an ace or a 16 4
¿ ¿
diamond’ 52 13
c)
d) ‘Probability of the card not being an ace’¿
48 12
¿
52 13
e)
‘Probability of the card not being an ace,
12 3
and being a diamond’ ¿ ¿
52 13
2A
Set Notation
Given that , and .
If the events are independent, then
a) Explain why events and are
not independent
b) Given also that , events and C Since , then these events cannot be
are mutually exclusive, and independent (ie if one happens, it will
events B and C are affect the probability of the other
independent, draw a Venn happening)
diagram to represent the
situation
c) Find

2A
Set Notation
𝐵 0.43
𝐶
Given that , and . 𝐴
0.05 0.25 0.08 0.12
a) Explain why events and are 0.07
not independent
b) Given also that , events and C
are mutually exclusive, and  As and are mutually exclusive, they do not
overlap
events B and C are
independent, draw a Venn 
diagram to represent the  Since , the probability of only = 0.05
situation
 As and are independent, (0.4x0.2=0.08)
c) Find
 Since , the probability of only = 0.12

 Since , the probability of only = 0.07

 As they must total 1, the probability of none of

these must equal 0.43
2A
Set Notation
𝐵 0.43
𝐶
Given that , and . 𝐴
0.05 0.25 0.08 0.12
a) Explain why events and are not 0.07
independent
b) Given also that , events and C
are mutually exclusive, and
events B and C are independent, 𝐴∩ 𝐵
′
𝐶
draw a Venn diagram to 0.05 0.2
represent the situation
c) Find 𝑃 ( ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′ ) ∪ 𝐶 ) =0.25

The probability of ‘ and not ’ or

 Highlight regions that satisfy each of these parts…
2A
Complete
Exercise 2A
Conditional Probability
The probability that occurs, given that has occurred, is
written as:

For independent events:

(since occurring does not affect )

a) Draw a two-way table to

show this information

2B
Conditional Probability
A school has 75 students in H H’ Total
year 12. Of these students,
25 study only humanities S 11 37 48
subjects (H), and 37 only
study science subjects (S). S’ 25 2 27
11 students study both
types of subject. Total 36 39 75
Find: The probability of the student studying sciences, given
2 that we know they study humanities
b) ¿
75
 The effect here is that we are not considering all
75 students
c)  Since we know that the student is studying
humanities, we are only considering that group

d)  11 students out of these 36 study sciences

So the probability of a student studying sciences, given

that they study humanities as well, is
2B
Conditional Probability
A school has 75 students in H H’ Total
year 12. Of these students,
25 study only humanities S 11 37 48
subjects (H), and 37 only
study science subjects (S). S’ 25 2 27
11 students study both
types of subject. Total 36 39 75
Find: The probability of the student studying humanities,
2 given that we know they do not study sciences
b) ¿
75
 The effect here is that we are not considering all
75 students
11
c) ¿
36  Since we know that the student is not studying
sciences, we are only considering that group

d)  25 students out of these 27 study humanities

So the probability of a student studying humanities,

given that they do not study sciences, is
2B
Conditional Probability
Dice 1
Two four sided dice are
1 2 3 4
thrown together, and the
sum of the numbers shown 1 2 3 4 5
is recorded.
Dice 2 2 3 4 5 6
3 4 5 6 7
a) Draw a sample space
diagram showing the 4 5 6 7 8
possible outcomes
We are only considering the pairs where at least one
dice is showing a 3

b) Given that at least one  In total, there are 7 combinations (be careful not
dice lands on a 3, find to count the (3,3) combination twice!
the probability that the  Of these, 2 have a total of exactly 5
sum of the two dice is
exactly 5  Therefore, the probability of the sum being
exactly 5, given that at least one of the dice lands
on a 3, is

2B
Conditional Probability
Dice 1
Two four sided dice are
1 2 3 4
thrown together, and the
sum of the numbers shown 1 2 3 4 5
is recorded.
Dice 2 2 3 4 5 6
3 4 5 6 7
c) State one modelling
assumption used in your 4 5 6 7 8
calculations

That both dice are

unbiased which means the
outcomes are all equally
likely

2B
Complete
Exercise 2B
Conditional probabilities in
Venn diagrams
and are two events such 𝐴 𝐵
that , and .
0.4 0.25
0.15

a) Draw a Venn diagram 0.2

showing the probabilities

for events and .
The probability of happening, given that
Find: happens

b)  As in the previous section, the ‘area’ we are

considering is being restricted
c)
 We are only going to consider the region where
d) happens (total of 0.4)

 We can use the probabilities in the same way

we would use actual values

So the probability of happening, given

that happens, is 3
¿
8
2C
Conditional probabilities in
Venn diagrams
and are two events such 𝐴 𝐵
that , and .
0.4 0.25
0.15

a) Draw a Venn diagram 0.2

showing the probabilities

for events and .
The probability of happening, given that
Find: or happens

b) 3
 We are only going to consider the region where
happens (total of 0.8)
c) 8
 We can use the probabilities in the same way
d) we would use actual values

So the probability of happening, given

that happens, is 1
¿
2

2C
Conditional probabilities in
Venn diagrams
and are two events such 𝐴 𝐵
that , and .
0.4 0.25
0.15

a) Draw a Venn diagram 0.2

showing the probabilities

for events and .
The probability of not happening, given
Find: that does not happen

b) 3
 We are only going to consider the region where
does not happen (total of 0.6)
c) 8
1  We can use the probabilities in the same way
d) 2 we would use actual values

So the probability of not happening, given

that does not happen, is 1
¿
3

2C
Complete
Exercise 2C
𝑃 ( 𝐴∪ 𝐵 ) =𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐵 ) − 𝑃 ( 𝐴∩ 𝐵)

Probability Formulae
On a Venn diagram, let and . 𝐴 𝐵
𝑎 − 𝑖𝑖𝑏 − 𝑖
Let the intersection

The probability of or , , will

be equal to the sum of the 𝑃 ( 𝐴∪ 𝐵 ) =¿ 𝑎 − 𝑖 +𝑖+𝑏 − 𝑖
three regions shown Simplify
Replace
𝑃 ( 𝐴∪ 𝐵 ) =¿ 𝑎 +𝑏 −𝑖 each term
using the
information
𝑃 ( 𝐴∪ 𝐵 ) =¿ 𝑃 ( 𝐴) + 𝑃 ( 𝐵 ) − 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) in the
question

Note that for mutually exclusive events, , so:

2D
𝑃 ( 𝐴∪ 𝐵 ) =𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐵 ) − 𝑃 ( 𝐴∩ 𝐵)

Probability Formulae
A and B are two events, 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) =𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐵 ) − 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) Sub in values
from the
such that: 0.9=0.6 +0.7 − 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) question
Simplify
0.9=1.3 − 𝑃 ( 𝐴∩ 𝐵)
Calculate
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)=0.4
.
Find .