Climate Change: Impacts and

Adaptation
 Module Orientation
 Climate change impacts: scientific assessment
of observed changes in climate system

Week 1
Environment and Climate Change
1 Management Masters Program 11/10/23
 Module Orientation
Session Outline
Module information

Learning outcomes

Delivery method

Module content

Method of assessment

Certification requirements

2 References 11/10/23
 Module information
Module title: Climate Change: Impacts & Adaptation
Module No: ECCM5051
ECTS: 7
Contact hours: 4 hours per week
Semester: II, Year: One
Mode of delivery: Face-To-Face

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 Learning Outcomes
 At the end of the module, participants will be
able to:
Analyze observed and projected impacts of climate
change on different systems;
Assess vulnerability of certain coupled human-
environment system (CHES) to the impacts of climate
change;
Develop adaptation strategies for various economic
sectors to reduce the impacts associated with climate
change;
Design climate proof development policies, adaptation
strategies as risk management.
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 Module Content
Climate change impacts: scientific assessment of
observed changes in climate system; drivers of
changes in natural and managed systems;
Methods to Analyzing historical and future climate
change (Climatology)
Methods to Downscale GCM output for local climate
change impact assessment
Climate change impacts on key economic sectors:
agriculture, water resources, energy, land use and
land cover, ecosystems.
Vulnerability analysis and adaptation needs, climate
change risk reduction and risk sharing strategies;
Climate change adaptation and technological needs;
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 Cont’d…
Types of adaptation – autonomous, anticipatory and
planned; constraints to the implementation of adaptation
options and strategies; timing of adaptation
Sector-specific adaptation strategies;
Adaptation Processes, Frameworks to diagnose barriers
to adaptation
Local institutions and their roles in planning adaptation
National Adaptation Strategy of Ethiopia (NAPA)

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 Modes of Delivery
 Lecture, Project work, Discussion and Presentations
Method of Assessment
Class test (20%) – will be given after completing the
four/first five weeks;
Individual assignment (20%)- will provide on first week
Group Assignment (20%)- will provide first week
Final Exam (40%) – this will be given at the end of the
semester following the completion of the module.

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 Certification Requirements
Students should have minimum 85% of class
attendance.

Students should submit and present the Mini

project /Group Assignment/.

Should successfully take class test and final

examination and receive pass grade.
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Reference
IPCC resource available on its website
Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B.
Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.) (2007): Climate
Change: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York,
NY, USA.
M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden
and C.E. Hanson (eds) (2007): Climate Change: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group I
to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, 2007, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
 Climate Change: Impacts and
Adaptation

Climatechange impacts: scientific assessment of

observed changes in climate system

10 11/10/23
Session outline
Introduction
Scientific assessment of observed changes in
climate system
Drivers of changes in the climate system
Conclusion
Introduction
Climate is weather averaged over an extended period of
time (30-year intervals are typically used in establishing
baseline climatology).

Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state

and other climate statistics (standard deviations, the
occurrence of extremes, etc.) on all temporal and spatial
scales beyond those of individual weather events.

Climate change refers to any change in climate over

time, whether due to natural variability or
anthropogenic forces.
Human influence on the climate system is clear, and
recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are
the highest in history.
Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on
human and natural systems.
During the Earth’s history, the climate has changed many
times and has included ice ages and periods of warmth.
 Before the Industrial Revolution, natural factors such as
volcanic eruptions, changes in the Earth’s orbit, and the
amount of energy released from the sun were the primary
factors affecting the Earth’s climate.
However, beginning late in the 18th century, human
activities associated with the Industrial Revolution and
burning fossil fuels began changing the composition of the
atmosphere.
Scientific assessment of observed changes
in climate system
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is
now evident from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread
melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea
level
Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank
among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental
record of global surface temperature (since 1850).
The temperature increase is widespread over the globe
and is greater at higher northern latitudes.
Land regions have warmed faster than the oceans
Rising sea level is consistent with warming.
Global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average
rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3] mm/yr and since 1993 at 3.1 [2.4 to
3.8] mm/yr, with contributions from thermal expansion,
melting glaciers and ice caps, and the polar ice sheets.
Whether the faster rate for 1993 to 2003 reflects decadal
variation or an increase in the longer-term trend is unclear.
Observed decreases in snow and ice extent are also
consistent with warming.
Satellite data since 1978 show that annual average Arctic
sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 [2.1 to 3.3]% per decade,
with larger decreases in summer of 7.4 [5.0 to 9.8]% per
decade.
Mountain glaciers and snow cover on average have
declined in both hemispheres.
More locations and studies show an increase than a
decrease in extreme precipitation, but that there are also
wide regional and seasonal variations, and trends in
many regions are not statistically significant.
Recent studies on past and current changes in
precipitation extremes in North America have reported
an increasing trend over the last half century.
From 1900 to 2005, precipitation increased significantly
in eastern parts of North and South America, northern
Europe and northern and central Asia but declined in the
Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of
southern Asia.
Globally, the area affected by drought has likely
increased since the 1970s.
 Observed Changes (since 1950) Projected Changes (up to 2100)
with Respect to Late 20th Century
Temperature Very likely decrease in number of  Virtually certain decrease in
unusually cold days and nights at frequency and magnitude of
the global scale. unusually cold days and nights
Very likely increase in number of at the global scale.
unusually warm days and nights at  Virtually certain increase in
the global scale. frequency and magnitude of
Medium confidence in increase in unusually warm days and nights
length or number of warm spells or at the global scale.
heat waves in many (but not all)  Very likely increase in length,
regions. frequency, and/or intensity of
Low or medium confidence in warm spells or heat waves over
trends in temperature extremes in most land areas.
some subregions due either to lack
of observations or varying signal
within subregions
Precipitation  Likely statistically significant  Likely increase in frequency of
increases in the number of heavy heavy precipitation events or
precipitation events (e.g., 95th increase in proportion of total
percentile) in more regions than rainfall from heavy falls over
 Projected climate change
There is high agreement and much evidence that with current
climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable
development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to
grow over the next few decades.
Temperatures in Africa are projected to rise faster than the
global average increase during the 21st century
Precipitation projections are more uncertain than T0 projections
and exhibit higher spatial and seasonal dependence than T0
projections.
However, there is now higher confidence than in the TAR in
projected patterns of warming and other regional-scale features,
including changes in wind patterns, precipitation and some
aspects of extremes and sea ice
Basically, T0 projection is based on the consideration of
different emission scenarios (various scenarios have been used
A1
The A1 scenarios are of a more integrated world. The A1
family of scenarios is characterized by:
Rapid economic growth.
A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then
gradually declines.
The quick spread of new and efficient technologies.
A convergent world - income and way of life converge between
regions. Extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide.
There are subsets to the A1 family based on their technological
emphasis:
A1FI - An emphasis on fossil-fuels (Fossil Intensive).
A1B - A balanced emphasis on all energy sources.
A1T - Emphasis on non-fossil energy sources.
A2
The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world. The A2 family
of scenarios is characterized by:
A world of independently operating, self-reliant nations and
preservation of local identities.
Continuously increasing population.
Regionally oriented economic development.
High emissions
B1
The B1 scenarios are of a world more integrated, and more
ecologically friendly. The B1 scenarios are characterized by:
Rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes
towards a service and information economy.
Population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in
A1.
Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean
and resource efficient technologies.
An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and
environmental stability.
B2
The B2 scenarios are of a world more divided, but more
ecologically friendly. The B2 scenarios are characterized by:
Continuously increasing population, but at a slower rate than
in A2.
Emphasis on local rather than global solutions to economic,
social and environmental stability.
Intermediate levels of economic development.
Less rapid and more fragmented technological change than in
A1 and B1.
Projected global average surface warming and sea
level rise at the end of the 21st century
Drivers of Climate change
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have
increased since the pre-industrial era driven largely by
economic and population growth.
From 2000 to 2010 emissions were the highest in
history.
Historical emissions have driven atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide to levels that are unprecedented in at least the last
800,000 years, leading to an uptake of energy by the
climate system.
Changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases (GHGs) and aerosols, land cover and solar
radiation alter the energy balance of the climate system.
Global GHG emissions due to human activities have
grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of
70% between 1970 and 2004

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important

anthropogenic GHG.

Its annual emissions grew by about 80% between 1970

and 2004.

The long-term trend of declining CO 2 emissions per unit

of energy supplied reversed after 2000.
About half of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions
between 1750 and 2011 have occurred in the last 40 years
(high confidence).
Cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 2040 ± 310
GtCO2 were added to the atmosphere between 1750 and
2011.
Since 1970, cumulative CO2 emissions from fossil fuel
combustion, cement production and flaring have tripled, and
cumulative CO2 emissions from forestry and other land
use (FOLU)
Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane
(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased
markedly as a result of human activities since 1750
and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined
from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.
Most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely
due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG
concentrations.
It is likely that there has been significant
anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years
averaged over each continent (except Antarctica).
 Conclusion

 Anthropogenic
greenhouse gas
emissions have increased
since the pre-industrial
era, driven largely by
economic and population
growth, and are now
higher than ever.
 This has led to
atmospheric
concentrations of CO2 ,
CH4 and NOX that are
exceptional in at least the
last 800,000 years.
 Their effects, together
with those of other
anthropogenic drivers,
have been detected
throughout the climate
system and are extremely
likely to have been the
dominant cause of the
Thank You
Questions?