1

Unit Five
Elementary Probability

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2 Introduction

 Probability:
 A theory that deals with chance/likelihood/ of occurrence of an event
 A theory that is used to evaluate uncertainty in making decisions
 It is foundation for the logic of making inference

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3 Definition of Terms/Phrases
 Random Experiment(RE): An experiment whose outcomes are not predetermined.
 Tossing a coin, Measuring lifetime of bulb, rolling a die, …
 Outcome – result of a trial of RE.
 Equally likely outcomes : All possible Outcomes of RE have equal chance to occur
 Sample Space(S): Set of all possible outcome of a RE.
o Tossing a balanced coin S={H,T}
o Rolling a die S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
o Lifetime: S = {t: 0<t<T }
 Event: Any Subset E of S. E={H}, F={T}, G={}, H={H,T}
 Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that cannot occur same time
I.E. Have no element in common E={H} and F={T}
 complement of an event: For event A, complement of A, is non-occurrence of A
 Independent events : Two events are independent if the occurrence or non occurrence one event
has no impact on the other. i.e. A and B are independent if P(AnB)=P(A)*P(B)
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4 Points from Set Theory
 For Any three sets A,B and C

 Distributive Property

 =A

 = and = Demorgan’s Rule

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5 Definition of Probability
 Classical Approach:
 Given random experiment with n equally likely outcomes. Let S be sample space and
E be an event which has m outcomes. Then the probability of E is defined as:

Example:
In the experiment of tossing a fair coin and a fair die together, find the probability of an event
E consisting head and even numbers.

Solution: S={H1,H2,H3,H4,H5,H6,T1,T2,T3,T4,T5,T6} then

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6 Definition …
 Relative Frequency Approach
 A random experiment is repeated N times and an Event A occurs m times. The relative frequency of
occurrence of A is .
If converges to a limit as then we say P(A) = .
 Example:
The national center for health statistics reported that of every 539 deaths in recent years, 24 resulted
that from automobile accident, 182 from cancer, and 353 from other disease. What is the probability
that particular death is due to an automobile accident?
Solution: P (death due to automobile) = number of death due to automobile /total death =24/539
 Drawback: how large is enough?

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7 Definition …
 Axiomatic Approach:
 Defines probability as function P: satisfying three axioms
 Axiom 1: For any event A,
 Axiom 2:
 Axiom 3: For mutually Exclusive Events Then
 Important Results:

 -
 =+ (Total Probability)
 If event B occurs together with any of n mutually exclusive events , then P(B) = .

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8 Example
 The following table summarizes number of people who are fan of two teams A and B
Men women Boys Girls Total
Team A 29 27 332 318 706
Team B 35 18 1360 104 1517
Total 64 45 1692 422 2223

 If one of the fans is randomly selected, find the probability of getting someone who is
woman or child. (2223-64)/2223 = .9712
 If one of the fans is randomly selected, find the probability of getting someone who is fan
of Team A. 706/2223 = 0.3176
 If one of them is randomly selected, find the probability of getting someone who is child
or fan of team A. p(child)+p(TeamA) – p(teamA and Child) =0.950967 + 0.3176 -
0.292398 =0.976158

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9 Example
Sixty percent of the families in a certain community have their own car, thirty percent have their
own home, and twenty percent have both their own car and own home. If a family is randomly
chosen,
a) what is the probability that this family do not have a car?
b) what is the probability that this family owns a car or a house?
c) what is the probability that this family owns a car or a house but not both?
d) what is the probability that this family owns only a house?
e) what is the probability that this family neither owns a car nor a house?

 Solution: Let A represent that the family owns a car and B represents that the family owns a
house. Given information: P(A)=0.6,P(B)=0.3, and P(AnB)=0.2.

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10 Example …
a) Required: P(Ac)
P(Ac)=1-P(A) = 1-0.6 = 0.4
b) Required: P(AUB)
P(AUB) = P(A)+P(B)-P(AnB)
= 0.6+0.3-0.2 = 0.7
c) Required: P((AnBc)U(AcnB))
P((AnBc)U(AcnB)) = P(AnBc)+P(AcnB)
= [P(A)-P(AnB)]+[P(B)-P(AnB)]
= [0.6-0.2]+[0.3-0.2]=0.5
d) Required: P(AcnB)
P(AcnB) = P(B)-P(AnB) = 0.3-0.2 = 0.1
e) Required: P(AcnBc)
P(AcnBc) = P((AUB)c) = 1-P(AUB) = 1-0.7 = 0.3

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11 Counting Rules
 Techniques that help us to determine the number of possible ways that an evet can occur
without enumerating.
 Addition Rule
 If a task can be accomplished by k distinct procedures where the i th procedure has ni
alternatives, then the total number of ways of accomplishing the task equals n 1 + n2+…
+nk

 Example: Suppose one wants to purchase a certain commodity and that this
commodity is on sale in 5 government owned shops, 6 public shops and 10 private
shops. How many alternatives are there for the person to purchase this commodity?
 Sol. 5+6+10 = 21 ways

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12 Counting Rules
 Multiplication Rule/and rule/
 If a task can be accomplished in k steps of which the first can be made in n 1 ways, for each of
these the second can be made in n 2 ways,…, and for each of these the k th can be made in nk ways,
then the whole task can be done in n 1.n2….nk ways.
 If we can go from Addis Ababa to Rome in 2 ways and from Rome to Washington D.C. in 3 ways then
the number of ways in which we can go from Addis Ababa to Rome to Washington D.C. is 2x3 ways
or 6 ways. We may illustrate the situation by using a tree diagram below:

W
R
A W

R W

W
W

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13 Counting Rules
 Permutations:
 Permutation: Deals on arrangement of objects in a specific order. In this case order is crucial
 Factorial:
 For a positive integer n, factorial of n is defined as
 0! = 1

 For n distinct objects, the number of permutation i.e. arrangements of the n objects is given by
 For n distinct objects, the number of permutation of n objects r of them taken at a time n

 For n distinct objects, the number of distinct arrangements around a circular plate is given by
 For n objects, in which n1 are alike, n2 are alike, … nk are alike where n1+n2+..nk =n, the number of
distinct arrangements of the n objects is given by n

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14 Counting …
 Example - Permutation
 A painter has 5 paints. In how many ways can he arrange his paints on a wall?
 In a completion, there are 8 contestants. In how many ways can we award for 1 st , 2nd and 3rd
place prizes?

 Abebe, Baye, Juhar and Petros are friends and went for dinner. In how many distinct ways they
can be seated around a dinning table?

 If Every arrangement of the letters gives meaning, how many distinct words can be formed from
the word ‘SISTER’?

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15 Counting …
 Combination
 The number of ways in which we can select r objects from n objects in which order
has no effect – called combination
 The combination of n objects r taken at a time is defined as:

 Examples : In how many ways a committee of 5 people be chosen out of 9 people?

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Conditional Probability
 Gives a way to compute probability of an event given some information on occurrence of another event.
 For two events A and B, the probability that event A will occur given that B has already occurred is
called conditional probability of event A. denoted and defined as
From the definition
(Called Multiplication rule)
 Example
 A red die, a blue die, and a yellow die (all six-sided) are rolled. If the outcome is arranged as a vector (B, R,
Y), where B, R, Y are the number appearing on the blue (red) [yellow] die.
 How many outcomes are there in the sample space? 216
 What is the probability that B < R < Y? 20/216
 What is the probability that no two of the dice land on the same number? 120/216
 What is the probability that B < R < Y given that no two of the dice land on the same number?
20/120

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Example
 Covid19 test results of 99 subjects is summarized as in the table:
a. What is the probability that a test is positive given that subject has the disease?(Sensitivity or power)
b. What is the probability that the test result is positive given that the subject has no the disease?
 Sol.
Test Test Total
 A = a subject has the disease P(A) = 85/99 RP RN
 B = a test result is positive, P(B)=83/99 SP 80 5 85
a) b) Required P(B|A) = SN 3 11 14
b) Required P(A|B) = ppv Total 83 16 99

 Note: P(A|B) P(B|A)

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Example …
 The Sex(M,F) and Residence(Rural, Urban) distribution of students in a department is as
in the table. If a student is randomly selected, what is the probability that the selected
student is:
Urban Rural Total
a) Male given that the student is urban? 30/40
M 30 40 70
b) From rural given that the student is Female? 20/30
F 10 20 30
Total 40 60 100
 Note (Multiplication rule Extended)
 For three events A, B and C:

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20 Independence
 By definition two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of one has no effect on
the other. That means P(A|B) = P(A) and P(B|A) = P(B)
 P(A|B) = P(A)
Example:
The probability that each relay closes in the circuit shown below is 0.9 Assuming that each relay
functions independently of the others, find the probability that current can flow from L to R
 Current flows from left to right let the event be E
 if A and B are closed OR C and D are closed
 E=
 P(E)=P() = P(+ - P( (by Independence)
=P(A)*P(B) +P(C)*P(D) –P(A)*P(B)*P(C)*P(D)
=2*0.9*.9 - .9*.9*.9*.9 = 1.62 - .6561 = 0.9639

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21

Thank You All!!

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