Scribd
Upload
17 views

2.1 Probability

Here are the key events for this example: A = the event that the same student is asked both questions = {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4)} B = the event that Student 1 is asked at least one of the two questions = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (2,1), (3,1), (4,1)} C = the event that different students are asked the two questions = the complement of A = {(1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (2,1), (2,3), (2,4), (3,

Uploaded by

Jon Zeth Aslor
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
17 views

2.1 Probability

Here are the key events for this example: A = the event that the same student is asked both questions = {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4)} B = the event that Student 1 is asked at least one of the two questions = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (2,1), (3,1), (4,1)} C = the event that different students are asked the two questions = the complement of A = {(1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (2,1), (2,3), (2,4), (3,

Uploaded by

Jon Zeth Aslor
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 17

INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

THE CONCEPT OF CHANCE


CONSIDER WHICH OF THESE EVENTS IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN.

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerned with analysing the chance that particular
event will occur. Its purpose is to attempt to predict the likelihood that something will or will
not happen.
EXAMPLE 1:

Tell whether each event is certain, impossible or possible.


1. A mother will give birth to twins.
2. Tamarind is sour.
3. You will go sunbathing tonight.
4. The boy will start to have menstruation when he turns 12.
5. Married people can have children.
6. Apple is blue.
7. Winter months in Japan lasts from December to February.
8. Stars move in circular motion.
PROBABILITY EXPERIMENTS AND SAMPLE SPACE
• Experiment is a process that has a definite result called outcome.
• Sample space (S) is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
• Event (E) is the subset of sample space.
E Consider a chance experiment to investigate whether men or women are more likely to choose a hybrid car
PL over a traditional internal combustion of engine car when purchasing a Honda Civic at a particular car
M
A 2: dealership. The Honda Civic is available with either a traditional or hybrid engine. In this chance experiment,
X
E a customer will be selected at random from those who purchased a Honda Civic. The type of vehicle
purchased (hybrid or traditional) will be determined and the customer’s gender will be recorded. Before the
customer is selected, the outcome of this chance experiment is unknown to us. However, we know what the
possible outcomes are. This set of possible outcomes is called the sample space.

The sample space of a chance experiment can be represented in many ways. One representation is a simple list
of all the possible outcomes. For the car-purchase chance experiment, the possible outcomes are:
1. A male buying hybrid
2. A female buying hybrid
3. A male buying traditional
4. A female buying traditional

We can also use set notation and ordered pairs. A male purchasing a hybrid is represented as (male, hybrid). The
sample space is then
E
PL Another useful presentation of the sample space is a tree diagram. A tree diagram for the outcomes of the car-
M
A 2: purchase chance experiment has two sets of branches corresponding to the two piece information that we
X
E gathered. To identify any particular outcome in the sample space, traverse the tree by first selecting a branch
corresponding to gender and then a branch identified with a type of car.

FIGURE 6.1 FIGURE 6.2


EXAMPLE 3:

For each experiment, write the sample space and the total number of possible outcomes.
a. Tossing a die
b. Spinning the wheel shown, assuming that the arrow will never fall on the lines separating
the 3 sectors
c. Flipping a coin
d. Drawing a card from a deck of 10 identical card suits labelled 1 to 10
EVENTS – any collection of outcomes from the sample space of a
chance experiment.
Simple event – an event consisting of exactly one outcome.
Example 4: Car Preferences
Reconsider the situation in which a person who purchased Honda Civic was categorized by
gender (M or F) and type of car purchased (H = hybrid, T = traditional). Show the sample space
using different representations.
EXAMPLE 5:
VIDEO GAME
Suppose you believe that that after losing to an opponent in a video game,
a player is more likely to lose the next game. You conduct a chance
experiment that consists of watching two consecutive games for a
particular player and observing whether the player won, tied, or lost each
of the two games. In this case, (using W, T, and L to represent win, tie, and
loss, respectively), write the sample space and write the event lose exactly
one of the two games.
F O R MI N G N E W E V E N T

Definition:
Let A and B denote two events.
• NOT A: The event that consists of all experimental outcomes that
are not in event A. Not A is sometimes called as the complement of
A and is usually denoted by .
• A or B: The event that consists of all experimental outcomes that
are in at least one of the two events, that is in A or B or in both of
these. A or B is called the union of two events and is denoted by

• A and B: The event that consists of all experimental outcomes that


are in both of the events A and B. A and B is called the intersection
of the two events and is denoted by
EXAMPLE 6: A traffic engineer has been asked to consider whether a stop sign at the
TURNING bottom of a freeway off-ramp should be replaced by a traffic light. To help
DIRECTIONS
in this decision, she plans to observe traffic patterns for this off-ramp.
Suppose she were to record the turning direction (L = left or R = right) of
each of three successive vehicles.
a. Write the sample space;
b. Determine the events which include a) A = event that exactly one of
the cars turns right, b) B = event that exactly one of the cars turns left,
c) C = event that all cars turn in the same direction;
c. Determine the events which are
• Not C,
• A or C,
• B and C.
EXAMPLE 7: In example 5, in addition to the event that a video game player loses
MORE ON exactly one of the two games, we could also define events corresponding to
VIDEO GAMES neither game is lost and both games are lost.
Then,
a. Find the events for ,
b. Determine ,
c. Find ,
d. Find
Mutually exclusive: Two events are
mutually exclusive if they have no outcomes
in common. The term disjoint is also
sometimes used to describe events that have
no outcomes in common.
EXAMPLE 8: ASKING QUESTIONS

The instructor in a seminar class consisting of four students has an unusual way of asking questions. Four
slips of paper numbered 1, 2, 3, and 4 are placed in a box. The instructor determines the student to whom
any particular question is to be addressed by selecting one of these four slips. Suppose that one question is
to be posed during each of the next two meetings. One possible outcome could be represented as (3, 1) –
the first question is addressed to student 3 and the second question to student 1.
Given:

a. Find A = the event that the same student is asked both questions,
b. Find B = the event that Student 1 is asked at least one of the two questions,
c. Find
d. Find

You might also like