Sets and Probability

Year 11 Methods
Probability and Sets

• Complete the worksheet containing review questions.

Probability
Probability
Probability
Sets
Sets
Sets
Sets
Sets
Set Notation AND

Subset

Equal sets Equal sets are sets that contain

exactly the same elements

Not a subset

𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐴 ′ Complement of A Everything that is in the Universal set that is not in A.

Specific sets of numbers

• Counting Numbers{1, 2, 3, 4, …}
• Whole Numbers {0, 1, 2, 3, …}
• Integers {…2. 1, 0 , 1, 2, …}
• Rational Numbers etc (Numbers that can be written as a fraction)

• Irrational Numbers, , etc (Numbers that can not be written as a fraction)

• Real Numbers is the set of numbers formed by the union of

irrational and rational numbers.
 Specific sets of numbers
{Counting Numbers}  {Whole numbers}  {Integers}  {Rational Numbers}  {Real Numbers}
Sets and Probability
Sets and Probability
Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability is the probability of an event occurring on the

condition that another event has occurred.
 Conditional Probability

Two fair dice one blue and one white are rolled. Find the probability that
a) the sum of the uppermost
faces is 6
b) The sum of the uppermost
faces is 6 given that the
white die shows a 4
 Conditional Probability

Two fair dice one blue and one white are rolled. Find the probability that
a) the sum of the uppermost faces is 6

SOLUTION:
The sample space shows that 5 outcomes in
the sample space are favourable to the event
sum of 6.

Hence P(sum of 6) =
 Conditional Probability
Two fair dice one blue and one white are rolled. Find the probability that
b) The sum of the uppermost faces is 6 given that the white die shows
a4
SOLUTION:
We have been given extra information or the condition that the white die shows a 4
on the uppermost face.
This means we only need to consider those
outcomes in which the white die shows a 4.
HenceP(sum of 6 given 4 on white) =
Conditional Probability

We use the symbol  for the word ‘given’ or the word ‘if’ to indicate
conditional probability.

Thus the probability that some event B has occurred given that some event A
has occurred is written as P(BA) and read as the ‘probability of B given A’.
Conditional Probability

A box contains two blue balls and one white ball. A ball is chosen at random
from the box and is not replaced. A second ball is then drawn at random from
the box. Find the probability that
a) the second ball is blue given that the first ball was blue.
b) the second ball is blue given that the first ball was white.
Conditional Probability

A box contains two blue balls and one white ball. A ball is chosen at random
from the box and is not replaced. A second ball is then drawn at random from
the box. Find the probability that
a) the second ball is blue given that the first ball was blue.
SOLUTION:
In this case we need to restrict ourselves to
the outcomes which have the blue ball as
the first ball. There are 4 outcomes in this
reduced sample space
Conditional Probability
A box contains two blue balls and one white ball. A ball is chosen at random
from the box and is not replaced. A second ball is then drawn at random from
the box. Find the probability that
b) the second ball is blue given that the first ball was white.
SOLUTION:
In this case we need to restrict ourselves to
the outcomes which have the white ball as
the first ball. There are 2 outcomes in this
reduced sample space
HenceP(2nd blue  1st white) =
Conditional Probability

The Venn diagram shows the number of students that study Applied
Mathematics (A) and Biology (B) at a particular college. If a student is
selected at random from the universal set, find
20 2
=
a) P(A) = 50 5
40 4
b) P(A B) = =
50 5
𝑛( 𝐴  𝐵) 12 3
c) P(A  B) = = =
𝑛( 𝐵) 32 8
d) P(B  A) = 𝑛( 𝐴  𝐵) 12 3
= =
𝑛 ( 𝐴) 20 5
Conditional Probability
𝑃 ( 𝐴  𝐵)
Therefore P(A  B) = 𝑃 (𝐵)
Conditional Probability

Complete Exercise 9B and 9C

Complement

• We use A’ or for the complement of A.

• That is everything in the Universal set that is not A.

• If the probability of an event occurring is “a” then the probability of it not

occurring is 1  “a”.
Use of the word AND in probability

• If we require the probability that events A AND B occur, we must look at

the outcomes in which BOTH A and B occur.

• When working with sets this would be A  B.

Use of the word OR in probability

• When the word OR is used in mathematics, we interpret A OR B to mean

ONE OR THE OTHER OR BOTH.

• When working with sets this would be A  B.

Use of the words OR and AND in probability

• The letters in the word ENJOY are written on 5 cards, with one letter on
each card. The five cards are then shuffled and two of the cards are dealt
face up.
• What is the probability that the two letters:
𝟏𝟒 𝟕
a) contains a vowel =
𝟐𝟎 𝟏𝟎
𝟒 𝟏
=
b) contains a vowel and the letter Y 𝟐𝟎 𝟓
𝟏𝟔 𝟒
c) starts with a J or contains a vowel 𝟐𝟎
=
𝟓
Use of the words OR and AND in probability
• Complete Exercise 9B, 9C and 9D
Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities
• A tree diagram of a probability situation shows successive stages of a
sample space as branching.

• It is usually convenient to combine branches with the same outcome and

label the combined branch according to the number of possible outcomes.

• If there are 16 possible outcomes of a stage and 5 of them are the same, this
combined branch is labelled as .
Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities
• A bag contains 3 green and 2 red marbles. Two marbles are randomly
withdrawn, without replacement.

• What is the probability that they are green and red in that order?
• What is the probability of two marbles of the same colour?

• The tree diagram although large can be constructed and the required
probability determined.
Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities

P(green and then red in that order) =

P(two marbles of the same colour) =

Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities
• A smaller more manageable tree can be produced by having just two
branches to start with, one for each colour.

• In the first stage there are 5 possible outcomes,

3 green and 2 red.

• Show these as combined branches and label

with the probability of them each occurring.
Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities
• Now do the second stage of the green branch.

• The sample space will be different because one

green marble has been removed. There are
4 marbles left – 2 green and 2 red.

• Show these as a combined branch and label

with the probability of them each occurring.
Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities
• Now do the second stage of the red branch.

• The sample space has changed because one red

marble has been removed. There are four marbles
left, 3 green and 1 red.

• Show these as a combined branch and label with

the probability of them each occurring.
Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities
• In a tree diagram it is important that as we move right, the branches leaving each
junction are mutually exclusive (if one occurs the others cannot) and cover all
eventualities that can happen from that point.

• The probabilities of the branches going right from a single point will add up to 1.

• The probability of each final outcome is obtained by following the

branches to that outcome, and multiplying the probabilities along that
route.
Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities
• So P(green and red in that order) =
Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities
• P(two marbles of the same colour) = +

=+

In a tree diagram we can combine final

outcomes by adding probabilities.
Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities
• Page 148 Lee
Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities

• Solution:
Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities
In the accompanying tree diagram, find
(a) The values of p, q and r.
(b) P(A’)
(c) P(A and B occurring)
(d) P(B)
(e) P(B’A)
(f) P(AB)
Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities
In the accompanying tree diagram, find
(a) P = 0.6, q = 0.4 and r = 0.9
(b) P(A’) = 0.6
(c) P(A and B occurring) = 0.24
(d) P(B) = 0.78
(e) P(B’A) = 0.4
(f) P(AB) = 0.31 or
Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities
• A test for a particular disease gives a positive result 95% of the time for a
person with the disease and a positive result 4% of the time for a person not
suffering from this disease. It is known that only 6% of the population have
the disease.
• What is the probability that this person:
a) tests positive?
b) has the disease and tests negative?
c) does not have the disease and tests positive?
d) does not have the disease given they tested positive.
Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities
• A test for a particular disease gives a positive result 95% of the time for a
person with the disease and a positive result 4% of the time for a person not
suffering from this disease. It is known that only 6% of the population have
the disease.
0.95
D + ve
0.06
0.05  ve

+ ve
0.04
0.94
D’
0.96  ve
 Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities
• What is the probability that this person:
a) tests positive? 0.06 × 0.95 + 0.94 × 0.04 = 0.0946
b) has the disease and tests negative? 0.06 × 0.05 = 0.003
c) does not have the disease and tests positive? 0.94 × 0.04 = 0.0376
d) does not have the disease given they tested positive.
Tree Diagrams showing Probabilities
• Complete Exercise 9E
Probability Rules
• Whilst drawing tree diagrams, Venn diagrams, making lists or constructing
tables can help our understanding of probability questions and allow us to
apply various probability rules intuitively, we can apply such rules without
the assistance of diagrams and lists if we wish to.
Probability Rules – Complement Rule
• Complementary events (A and A’)

• P(A’) = 1  P(A)
Probability Rules – Conditional Rule
• Conditional Probability (BA):

• P(BA) =
Probability Rules – A and B (AB)
• To determine the probability of A and B occurring we multiply the
probabilities together, paying due regard to whether the occurrence of one
of the events affects the likelihood of the other occurring:

• P(AB) = P(A) × P(BA) OR P(AB) = P(B) × P(AB)

Probability Rules – Independent Events
• Two events are said to be independent events if the outcome of one event
has no impact on the outcome of the other.

• The probability that A occurs is the same regardless of whether B has

occurred or not.

• For example – tossing a fair coin and rolling a die. The outcome of the coin
tossing is independent of the roll of the die. The chance of getting a head is
0.5 irrespective of the result of rolling the die.
Probability Rules – Independent Events
• Now consider drawing two black cards from a standard pack of playing
cards without replacement.

• These events are not independent as the occurrence of one of the events
influences the other.

• If the dependence or independence of two events is not obvious then it may

be stated in the question.
Probability Rules – A and B (AB)
• If A and B are INDEPENDENT EVENTS
then P(B) = P(BA) and P(A) = P(AB).

• In other words P(B) = P(B with conditions)

Probability Rules – Independent Events
• Two events are independent if one of the following statements holds:
P(B) = P(BA)
P(A) = P(AB)
P(AB) = P(A) × P(B)
Probability Rules – Independent Events
Probability Rules – Independent Events
Probability Rules - A or B (A  B)
• To determine the probability of A or B occurring we add the probabilities
together and then make the necessary subtraction to compensate for the
‘double counting or overlap”:

• P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A  B)

Probability Rules - A or B (A  B)
• If A and B are mutually exclusive (both cannot occur at the same time) P(A
 B) = 0 and so

• P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)

Probability Rules - A or B (A  B)
• Complete Exercise 9E and 9F
Independent Events