Fundamental Applied Statistics

Danny M. Vaughn, Ph.D., CMS

Statistics - deal with the collection, classification,

description, presentation, and analysis (interpretation) of
data (numerical information).

· It became a method of inquiry during the Biological

revolution of the 19th century.

 Also considered a study in the variation in data.

 Based upon observations or measurements of data.

 Statistics is inductive – specific measurements or

observations yield a more general conclusion.

 Statistical inference is also scientific inference.

(Inference is a conclusion based upon known facts).

 Statistics relies upon some notion of replication.

 It follows, estimates can be derived, and variation and

uncertainty of an estimate understood from repeated
observations.
· To promote critical & analytical thinking.

· To describe & summarize data.

· Generalize complex spatial patterns. Clustering, uniform, regular,

& random.

· Estimating probabilities of outcomes for an event at a given

location.

· Comparative analysis of magnitude & frequency of phenomena

from different locations. Population, density of springs (fractures,
lithologic similarities), etc.

 Comparative spatial pattern analysis. Does an actual pattern match

an expected pattern?
 Selected Vocabulary

· Data – Numerical information.

· Data set – groups of data in tabular format. Consist of,

observations, variables, & variates.

· Observations – elements of phenomena (individuals, cases).

· Variable - a property that can be measured, classified, or counted,

e.g. male/female, discharge/velocity, etc.

 Variate - a particular value of a variable, e.g. discharge in

M3S-1, velocity in MS-1.
· Descriptive Statistics - a concise, numerical, or quantitative
summary is reported for a variable or data set.

 Measures of central tendency

 Measures of dispersion & variability.
 Measures of shape or relative position.
 Spatial data.
 Locational Issues.

· Inferential Statistics - a reported result (generalization) is

derived from a sample of a larger population. Based upon
probability theory.

 Estimation – based upon confidence intervals.

 Hypothesis testing – Z & t tests.
· Sampling Statistics – a portion of the total set of data.

· Parameter - a property descriptive of a population. Expressed by

Greek letters: s is standard deviation, m is a population mean, and
s2 is a population variance.

· Estimate (statistic) - a property of a sample drawn at random

from a population. Estimates are expressed by roman letters.
Standard deviation is s, mean is x, and variance is s2.

· Function – when two variables are related such that the values of
one are dependent upon the values of the other.

 If the functional relationship is not known, causal conclusions can

not be inferred.
 Characteristics of Data

· Primary Data – acquired directly from an original source, i.e.

from the field.
· Secondary Data – preexisting data from an agency or other
source.
Variables of the Data Set

· Continuous Variable - any value within a defined range of

values. Values which belong to a continuous series include;
height, weight, chronological time, discharge, velocity, etc.

 Discontinuous (discrete) Variable - specific (counted & limited

to whole numbers) values only. The size of a family (3) implies
the exact size of the group. Other examples include school
enrollment & number of books in a library.
 Levels of Measurement

· Nominal Variable - a qualitative property of equality or difference in established

categories. Variables must be exhaustive & mutually exclusive. (soil classes, tree
species, well locations, etc.)

· Ordinal Variable - a property of equality or difference & rank order within the
data. (soil classes ordered by high, intermediate, or low sand content, well
locations ordered by proximity to a town, etc.)

 Interval variable - a property of equality or difference, order, & no true 0

(starting) point within the data (temp in Fº or Cº).

 Ratio variable - a property of equality or difference, order, & a true 0 (starting)

point within the data (soil classes ordered by percent sand, wells ordered by
discharge values).

 Interval data may transformed to ratio data by subtracting the differences of

variates which eliminates or cancels out the arbitrary origin.
 Principles of Measurement

 Precision – Degree of exactness. A measure of repeatability. How

close positions are clustered. Based on a relative reference, e.g. a
circle 1 inch in diameter.

· Accuracy – Closeness of a position to a known absolute reference

system.

· Validity – based upon operational definitions of acceptance.

Subjective parameter, e.g. level of poverty, quality of …, etc.

 Reliability – how consistent, repeatable, or stable is the data over

changes in spatial pattern over time?
 Basic Statistical Properties

Constant (c) – a property common to all members of a group.

• Property1 - Multiplying a constant (c) by each score is equal

to adding all the scores (Xi), and multiplying by a constant (c):
cXI:

cXi = cX1 + cX2 + cX3 + ....cXn

• Property 2 - If a given constant (c) equals 4, and there are 5

variables (N), then: C = C + C + C + C + C, equals NC:

4+4+4+4+4 = 20, and N(5) x c(4) = 20.

• Property 3 - The summation () of the sum of any number
of terms is the sum of the summations of these terms taken
separately:

(Xi + Yi + Zi) = (X1 + Y1 + Z1) + (X2 + Y2 + Z2)+

(X3 + Y3 + Z3 )... = Xi + Yi + Zi …

• Property 4 - The sum of the products of two sets of paired

numbers is:

Xi Yi ; which equals: X1Y1 + X2Y2 + XnYn...

• Property 5 - Given a set of values (Xn), the sum of the
squared values (Xn2 ) is equal to : Xn2 where,

Xn X2
3 9
2 4
5 25
6 36
4 16
______ _____
Xn = 20 Xn2 = 90
• Property 6 - Given a set of values (Xn), the square of the sum
of the values (Xn's) is equal to (X)2

where: Xn
3
2
5
6
4
______
Xn = 20 (Xn)2 = (20) 2 = 400
 The Normal Distribution (Curve)

• Frequency curves are conceptualized as extending across the

X axis from minus infinity to plus infinity, although they
realistically taper off at 0.

• The area under the curve is always finite, and for convenience
is taken as unity.

• On occasion it becomes necessary to find the proportion of the

total area of the curve between ordinates (X = c, & X = d)
erected at particular values of X such that this proportion is the
probability that a particular value X drawn at random from the
population which the curve describes falls between c and d.
• Therefore, frequency curves are often called probability
curves.

• The Normal Curve is written in standard score (Z) form

with a mean equal to 0, variance equal to 1, and standard
deviation equal to 1.

• The area under the curve is taken as unity (1).

• Thus, the area under the normal curve is divided into standard
deviation units such that +1 standard deviation unit accounts
for 0.3413 of the total area under the curve.

• Alternatively, -1 standard deviation unit also accounts for

0.3413 of the total area under the curve.
• Therefore plus or minus 1 standard deviation unit accounts for
approximately 0.6826 of the total area under the normal curve.

• When considering the area between +1 or -1 standard deviation

units to + 2 or - 2 standard deviation units, the area accounted for
is 0.1359 on each side.

• When this value is combined with plus or minus 1 standard

deviation unit, 0.9544 of the total area under the normal curve is
accounted for by plus or minus 2 standard deviation units.

• Three standard deviation units would only account for an

additional 0.0214 increase on each side of the mean for a total of
0.9972 of the total area under the curve explained.
The Normal Curve
 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
 Scatterplot – graphic distribution of two variables
(points), e.g. temperature/elevation.

• A frequency distribution shows the number of times each

score occurs, and arranges scores from lowest to highest.

• Given a frequency distribution of values (for example

brightness values of 56, 57, 67, 99, 120), the Ogive or
cumulative frequency (Cf) is a continuous count of frequencies
for each BV at or below a given level.
Scatterplot
 The Ogive or cumulative frequency (Cf) plot is a
continuous count of frequencies for each BV at or below a
given level.

• The cumulative percentage frequency (Cf%) is the percentage

of a given number of BV's compared to the total (200 in this
example, Cf / 200).

BV's Frequency Cf Cf %
56 5 5 0.025
57 34 39 0.20
67 100 139 0.70
99 45 184 0.92
120 16 200 1.00

Frequency = 200
• A percentile rank is a percentile corresponding to a raw
score.

• If one is in the 90 percentile (percentile rank), it would be

interpreted as 90 percent of the scores are at or below this
value.
To obtain the percentile rank for a given score, e.g. (67):

• Calculate the lower true limit of the score (67) by subtracting

0.5 unit from the score (66.5).

• Subtract the lower limit (66.5) from the score whose percentile
rank is being estimated (67).

• Multiply the result by the frequency of scores with a value of

67 (100).

• Divide the result by the width of the class interval (1).

• Add the result to the cumulative frequency (139).

• Divide the result by the total number of frequencies (200).

(((67-66.5)(100)/1)+139)/200 = .945 x 100 = 95%.
STANDARD SCORES (Z scores) – a transformation from
raw scores to standard deviation units used to compare a score
with a collection of scores derived from different procedures
(English vs. Mathematics test).

• Position is considered rather than the magnitude and

measurement of units of scores. Z score = (Xi - Xbar) / s

• Properties of a Z score:

If a raw score is >Xbar, positive Zscore.

If a raw score is <Xbar, negative Zscore.

If a raw score = Xbar, 0 Zscore.

• Standard scores have a mean = 0, and a standard deviation =
1, thus they are readily amendable to algebraic manipulation.

• After computing for a standard score, locate the Z value in a

table of Z scores.

• This will give a value of area between the mean and a Z score.

• If the raw score is greater than the mean, add the Z value to 50
to obtain the percentile rank.

• If the raw score is lower than the mean, subtract the Z value
from 50.
 In a given distribution of brightness values (frequency
distribution), it is important to recognize a variety of
properties about the distribution.

• The four properties include - Central Tendency, Variation,

Skewness, and Kurtosis.

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY

Central Tendency - refers to a method of describing the

spread of the distribution of scores around a central measure
of the frequency distribution.

 The four properties include – mode, median, & arithmetic

mean.
ARITHMETIC MEAN (Xbar) - The sum of the value of Xi
(Xi) multiplied by the frequency of its occurrence (fi),
divided by the number of measurements (N): Mean equals the
arithmetic average:

Xbar = Xi/N also

Xbar = f1X1 + f2X2 + ....fnXn/N = fiXi / N

where: Xi = fiXi

Deviation from the mean (Xi- Xbar) or xi) - the difference

between a particular score (Xi) and the mean (Xbar):

xi = (Xi- Xbar)
• Property 1 of the mean - The sum of the deviations of all
the measurements in a set from their arithmetic mean equals 0.

(Xi - Xbar) = Xi - Xbar = NX - NXbar = 0

since Xbar = Xi/N; then Xi = NXbar

• Property 2 of the mean - The sum of squares or the sum of

squared deviations from the arithmetic mean, (Xi - Xbar)2 or
x2 is less than the sum of squares of deviations from any
other value.

• Property 3 of the mean - The mean is that measure of

central tendency about which the sum of squares is a
minimum.

• The mean is a measure of central location in the least square

sense.
MEDIAN - The point on the scale such that half of the
observations fall above it and half below it.

MODE - The most frequently occurring value.

• If the frequency of occurrences is equal for each value, there is

no mode.

• Where two values have equal frequency, the mode is

determined by adding the brightness values of the two that occur
equally, and dividing by the total number of repetitive values (2).

• The mode represents the highest point on a curve (histogram).

 MEASURES OF DISPERSION & VARIATION
Note - As the variation between measurements increases, the
departure of the observations from their sample mean increases.
This is used to define a measure of variation.

Variation can be absolute or relative.

 Absolute – variation is based upon the magnitude of values in

the data set.
 Relative – variation is a ratio or proportion of the variation to
typically the mean of the data set.

RANGE - The difference between the largest and smallest

measurements.

• For large samples this is an unstable descriptive measure.

• It is also not normally dependent upon sample size.
Mean Deviation (a measure of dispersion) - the sum of the
deviations from the arithmetic mean divided by the number of
values without regard to sign (absolute values (e.g. |2|), or the
arithmetic mean of the absolute deviations from the
arithmetic mean.

• As an example - M.D. = |Xi - Xbar| / N where: |XI - Xbar|

is an absolute value w/out regard to sign.

• This measure is normally avoided, as it does not lend itself

well to algebraic manipulations.

SUM OF SQUARES - The sum of the squared deviations

about the mean:

SS = (Xi - Xbar)2 = x2 also SS = Xi2 - (Xi)2 / N

 MEASURES OF VARIABILITY

SAMPLE VARIANCE - (Includes degrees of freedom (df)

defined as the total number of variables (N) minus the number of
constraints placed on the data or the number of variables free to
vary).

For example given 5 measurements which equal 100, four are

free to vary, but the last must equal a value which when
combined with the other 4 = 100, thus

df = N-1 or 4.

SAMPLE (unbiased) VARIANCE (s2) - is the mean (average)

of the sum of squared deviations around the mean, & a preferred
method of dealing with negative signs.
-

s2 = (Xi - Xbar)2 / N-1

STANDARD DEVIATION (s) – is a measure of variation in
units of original measurements.

• If the deviation represents a statistic in feet, then the variance

will be reported in square feet.

• By extracting the square root of the variance, we derive a

unit in original measurements (ft.).

s = Xi - Xbar)2 / N-1

COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION – expresses a relative
measure of variability among distributions as a ratio of
standard deviation to mean.

CV = s/xbar or (s/xbar)100

· Removes the absolute magnitude in the data set.

 Allows direct comparison of the variability of different

data sets.
 Measure of Shape/Position

Skewness - Skewness refers to the symmetry of a

distribution.

• When a distribution of values is not normal, and the

tail extending long to the right (positively skewed to
the high end of the distribution).

• When a distribution of values is not normal, and the

tail trends to the left (negatively skewed to the low
end of the distribution).
Positive Skewed
Negative Skewed
• The skewness is related to moments about the mean such
that the expressions are as follows:

First moment: (Xi - Xbar) / N (Avg. of deviations from

the mean).

Second moment: (Xi - Xbar)2 / N (Biased variance).

Third moment: (Xi - Xbar)3 / N (Avg. cubed deviation

from the mean).

Forth moment: (Xi - Xbar)4 / N

• By incorporating the second (M2) and third (M3) moments,
when g1 = 0, and M3 = 0, the distribution is said to be normal.

g1 = M3/(M2)3/2

When g1 is = 0: Symmetrical distribution.

When g1 is = -: Negatively skewed (to the left).

When g1 is = +: Positively skewed (to the right).

• In a truly symmetrical (unimodal) distribution, the mean,
mode, and median, are equal.

• In a skewed distribution the mode remains unchanged,

however, the median is displaced in the direction to which the
distribution is skewed.

• The arithmetic mean will also be displaced in the same

direction and to the outside (distal end) of the median.

• It follows that in a skewed distribution, the mean is highly

sensitive by the degree of skewness, and ceases to describe a
"central value" or typical value.
KURTOSIS - The degree of steepness or flatness of a
distribution is measured by kurtosis which is derived from the
second and forth moments:

g2 = (M4 / M22) - 3

When g2 is = 0: Mesokurtic (Normal distribution).

When g2 is = <0: Platakurtic (Flat topped distribution).

When g2 is = >0: Leptokurtic (Peaked distribution).

Kurtosis