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W9 - Problem Solving and Decision Making

The document discusses key concepts in problem solving and decision making including defining problems, identifying causes, generating solutions, and making decisions through rational thinking and systems thinking approaches. It also outlines the decision making process of defining the problem, generating alternatives, evaluating options based on consequences, selecting the best option, and developing an implementation plan.

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Shi Ting
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62 views

W9 - Problem Solving and Decision Making

The document discusses key concepts in problem solving and decision making including defining problems, identifying causes, generating solutions, and making decisions through rational thinking and systems thinking approaches. It also outlines the decision making process of defining the problem, generating alternatives, evaluating options based on consequences, selecting the best option, and developing an implementation plan.

Uploaded by

Shi Ting
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Thinking Skills

WIX2001
PROBLEM SOLVING AND DECI-
SION MAKING
Problem Solving
Seven important terms to understand are:

1. Purpose
• What we want to do or what we want to be.
• Without clear purpose, we cannot think about problems.
2. Situation
• What are the circumstances?
• Situation is neither good or bad.
• We should recognize situations objectively as much as we can. Usually
almost all situations are not problems.
Problem Solving
Seven important terms to understand are:

3. Problem
• Problems are portions of a situation, which cannot realize purpose.
• If the purpose is different, the identical situation may be a problem or
may not be a problem.
4. Cause
• What brings about a problem.
• Some problem solvers do not distinguish causes from problems.
• Causes are more specific facts, which brings about problems.
• Finding specific facts which causes problems is essential.
Problem Solving
Seven important terms to understand are:

5. Solvable Cause
• Some portions of causes.
• Finding solvable causes is another essential step in Problem Solving.
• Extracting solvable causes is a useful step to make Problem Solving efficient.
6. Issue
• The opposite expression of a problem.
• Some problem solvers do not know what Issue is.
• At worst, problems are mixed-up, which should be negative expres-
sions, with the issues, which should be positive expressions.
Problem Solving
Seven important terms to understand are:

7. Solution
• Specific actions to solve a problem, which is equal to a specific
action to realize an issue.
• Some problem solvers do not break down issues into more
specific actions.
• Issues are not solutions.
• Problem solvers must break down issues into specific actions/ex-
pressions.
Types of Problems
A. Degree of Constraint
I. Well Defined Problems e.g.
The given information, the operations and 3x = 2, solve for x
the goal state are completely specified
II. Ill defined problems e.g.
Problems in which there is uncertainty in Cooking dinner
either: the given information, the Writing a term paper
permissible operations or the final state. Building a career
Because of uncertainty, the problem
cannot be completely specified.
How to cope with ill defined
problems
Break the problem into a series of
sub-problems that are well defined.
Types of Problems
B. Classes of Problems

I. Problems of inducing e.g :


structure 8 5 4 9 1 7 6 3 ? 0 (what is the missing number?)

II. Transformation Problems e.g. Water jar problems


Jars A B C
Size 28 7 5
How do I obtain 11 units of water?
III. Arrangement Problems e.g. What is the word: lespo ?
Types of Solutions
A. Algorithms

Sets of operations that can be applied systematically and exhaustively


to generate a solution.
Example: Calculate the mean for the following set of scores:
3, 4, 2, 5, 3, 6
Algorithm solution: Sum the scores, divide by n
NOTE: algorithms exists only for well defined problems!
Types of Solutions
B. Heuristics

Strategies, or rules of thumb, that can be applied to a problem


that often help generate a solution.
Example: In Black Jack, when do you take another card?
Heuristic: Stay at 15 or more.

NOTE: Heuristics do not guarantee success!


Problem Solving Methods
1. Rational Thinking

Set the Ideal Situation

Identify a current situation

Compare the ideal situation and the current situation


and identify the problem situation

Break down the problem into its causes


Problem Solving Methods
Rational Thinking

Conceive the solution alternatives to the causes

Evaluate and choose the reasonable


solution alternatives

Implement the solutions


Problem Solving Methods
2. System Thinking

• System thinking is a more scientific problem solving approach than


the rational thinking approach.
• We set the system, which causes problems and analyze them
based on systems of functions.
Problem Solving Methods
2. System Thinking
Problem Solving Methods
2. System Thinking

• In order to realize Purpose, we prepare input and through Function we


can get Output.
• But Output does not necessarily realize Purpose.
• Result of the Function may be different from the Purpose.
• This difference is created by Outside Cause and Inside Cause.
• We cannot solve Outside Cause but we can solve Inside Cause.

System Thinking is a very clear and useful method to solve


problems.
Decision Making
Definition:
 “The process for arriving at a decision.”
 Decision making  an everyday task!
Focus on:
 What is the process/procedure of making a good decision?
 What are the tools/techniques to aid decision making process?
Decision Making Process
1. What is the problem/decision to be made?

– Problem definition?
– Objectives to be fulfilled?
– Problem boundaries?
– Example: Decide whether extra work hour should be encour-
aged?
Decision Making Process
2. What are the possible options/ alternatives?

•Look for new alternatives/options/ideas or courses of action.


•Available techniques:
• PMI (Edward De Bono)
• It is a powerful thinking tool for the generation of alterna-
tives, options or courses of actions.
• P = Plus or Good Points
• M = Minus or the Bad Points
• I = Interesting or the Interesting Points
Decision Making Process
– PMI technique – begins with the ‘Plus’ followed by the ‘Minus’ and
finally the ‘Interesting’ points (attention directing tool)
– The ‘interesting’ point consists of neither positive nor negative rea-
sons/ideas etc. It explores possibilities that may be outside the
usual realm of pros or cons.
– Example:
• P : What if an extra work hour is encouraged..?
• M : What if an extra work hour is discouraged..?
• I : What if an extra work hour is normal?
Decision Making Process
3. What options/alternatives are best?

Using generated options/ alternatives, consider:

a) consequences of each option/ alternative


– Make predictions as to the consequences of each option or course of action, i.e.
what if an extra work hour was encouraged or discouraged?
– Support each prediction with credible evidence, i.e. what evidence do I have that an
extra work hour should be encouraged or discouraged?
• Support with statistics, surveys, expert opinions etc.

b) value of each consequence


• Rank each consequence according to priority based on a value system.
Decision Making Process
Available technique:
• The ALU (Scott and Donald)
• It is a technique for idea finding.
• A = Advantages
• L = Limitations
• U = Unique Connections
Decision Making Process

ALU technique:
• Advantages: From the list of possibilities ask what advantages does each
alternative offer? What are its strongest points? What makes it attractive
or appealing?
• Limitations: Next ask, what limitations are there? Are there obvious flaws
or weaknesses to be overcome if we work with this alternative/ course of
action? Are there possible trouble spots?
• Unique Connections: Finally, ask yourself. “Does this alternative/idea sug-
gest any new or unusual connections I was not aware of before? Are
there any “hidden potentials” here?
Decision Making Process
4. Selection of best option
– Compare the various options/ alternatives based on their con-
sequences.
– Decide which is the best option/ alternative.

5. How to implement the decision?


– Establish what is need to implement the decision (resources al-
location).
– List action steps for implementation (including people involved)
– If possible, include contingency plans for known risks.

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