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Lesson 1 The Scientific Method

The scientific method involves both deductive and inductive reasoning. Deductive reasoning moves from general theories to specific predictions, while inductive reasoning moves from specific observations to broader generalizations and theories. Statistics are necessary to analyze data given the inherent variability in phenomena. Well-designed studies, whether observational or experimental, are needed to properly quantify variables and test hypotheses while minimizing errors. The null hypothesis is tested to determine if experimental results could plausibly occur by chance alone.

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18 views

Lesson 1 The Scientific Method

The scientific method involves both deductive and inductive reasoning. Deductive reasoning moves from general theories to specific predictions, while inductive reasoning moves from specific observations to broader generalizations and theories. Statistics are necessary to analyze data given the inherent variability in phenomena. Well-designed studies, whether observational or experimental, are needed to properly quantify variables and test hypotheses while minimizing errors. The null hypothesis is tested to determine if experimental results could plausibly occur by chance alone.

Uploaded by

kbaracinas
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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THE SCIENTIFIC

METHOD
”Science is built up with facts, as a house is with stones. But a
collection of facts is no more a science than a heap of stones is a
house.”
- Jules Henri Poincare
THE LOGIC
OF
SCIENTIFIC
REASONING
DEDUCTIVE INFERENCE

• We hold a theory, and based on it, we make prediction of its consequences.


• For example: we may hold a theory of learning that says that positive
reinforcement results in better learning than does punishment, that is, rewards
work better that punishments.
• We predict that math students who are praised for their right answers during the year
will do better on the final exam than those who are punished for their wrong answers.
General Theory Specific; also known as the hypothetico-deductive method.
INDUCTIVE INFERENCE

• Specific to general. We make many observations, discern a pattern, make a


generalization, and infer an explanation.
• For example: it was observed in the Vienna General Hospital in the 1840s that
women giving birth were dying at a high rate of puerperal fever, a
generalization that provoked terror in prospective mothers. It was a young
doctor named Ignaz Phillip Semmelweis who connected the observation that
medical students performing vaginal examinations did so directly after coming
from the dissecting room, rarely washing their hands in between, with the
observation that a colleague who accidentally cut his finger while dissecting a
corpse died of a malady exactly like the one killing mothers.
INDUCTIVE INFERENCE

• He inferred the explanation that the cause of death was the introduction of
cadaverous material into a wound. The practical consequence of that creative
leap of imagination was the elimination of puerperal fever as a scourge of
childbirth by requiring that physicians wash their hands before doing a
delivery. The ability to make such creative leaps from generalizations is the
product of creative scientific minds.
VARIABILITY OF PHENOMENA
REQUIRES STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Deterministic Model
Probabilistic Model
INDUCTIVE INFERENCE:
S TAT I S T I C S A S T H E
TECHNOLOGY OF THE
SCIENTIFIC METHOD Types of Data Presentation Analysis of
of Data Data
DESIGN OF STUDIES

Observational Studies Experimental Studies


Cross-sectional Studies Clinical Trials
Case-control Studies
Prospective (Cohort of Longitudinal)
Studies
HOW TO QUANTIFY VARIABLES

Discrete or Categorical
variables

Continuous Variables
When you test a hypothesis, this is the type of reasoning
you use:
• I will assume the hypothesis that there is no difference is true.
• I will then collect the data and observe the difference between
the two groups.
• If the null hypothesis is true, how likely is it that by chance
THE NULL
alone I would get results such as these? HYPOTHESIS ()
• If it is not likely that these results could arise by chance under
the assumption than the null hypothesis is true, then I will
conclude it is false, and I will “accept” the alternative
hypothesis ().
WHY DO WE TEST THE NULL HYPOTHESIS?
TYPES OF
ERRORS
ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BASED ON
DECISION

1. If we believe the null hypothesis (i.e., fail to reject it), we will not use the drug.
Consequences of wrong decision: Type II error. If we believe
incorrectly, since in reality the drug is beneficial, by withholding it we
will allow patients to die who might otherwise have lived.
2. If we reject null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis, we will use
the drug.
Consequences of wrong decision: Type I error. If we have rejected the
null hypothesis incorrectly, we will use the drug and patients don’t benefit.
Presuming the drug is not harmful in itself, we do not directly hurt the
patients, but since we think we have found the cure, we might no
longer test other drugs.
SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL AND
TYPES OF ERROR

The probability of making a type I error is known as the


significance level of a statistical test. (alpha)

If you aim to lower the type I error, you automatically raise


the type II error probability.

To lower the probabilities of both the type I and type II error


in a study, it is necessary to increase the number of
observations.

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