Interest Rates

TOPIC 3

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 1
 Learning Objective
 Types of Rates
 Measuring interest rates
 Zero rates
 Bond pricing
 Determining treasury zero rates
 Forward rates
 Forward rate agreements
 Duration
 Convexity
 Theories of the term structure of interest
rates
Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 2
 Interest rate
 Amount of money borrower promise to pay
lender
 Different types of interest rates are
regularly quoted(Exp. mortgage rates,
deposit rates, prime borrowing rates, and
so on)
 Higher credit risk, leads to higher interest
rate, via versa.[risk premium]

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 3
 Types of Rates
 Treasury rates
 LIBOR rates
 Repo rates

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 4
 Treasury Rates
 Rates on instruments issued by a government to borrow
in its own currency
 Investor earns from TB (Treasury bills and Treasury
bonds)
 China Treasury rate is China government borrowing in
Yuan Renminbi
 Assumed that no chance that a government will default
on an obligation denominated in its own currency.
 Treasury rates are totally risk-free principal payments will
be made as promised.
 Derivatives trades use LIBOR rate as risk free rates.
(especially trades in the over-the-counter market)

5
Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013
 LIBOR and LIBID
 LIBOR-London Interbank Offered Rate
 LIBOR is the rate of interest at which a bank
is prepared to make a large wholesale
deposit money with another bank. (The
second bank must typically have a AA rating)
 LIBOR is compiled once a day by the British
Bankers Association on all major currencies
for maturities up to 12 months
 LIBID-London Interbank Bid Rate- is the rate
which a AA bank is prepared to pay on
deposits from another bank

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 6
 LIBOR and LIBID-Cont.
 LIBOR rates are used as “true” risk-free
rate by Derivative trades- [they believe
Treasury rate are artificially low]
 LIBOR > LIBID[receive high, pay low]
 If country want to borrow more
LIBOR&LIBID( ); vice-versa- this is know
as Eurocurrency rate.

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 7
 Repo Rates
 Repurchase agreement is an agreement where a
financial institution that owns securities agrees to
sell them today for X and buy them back in the
future for a slightly higher price, Y
 The financial institution obtains a loan.
 The rate of interest is calculated from the difference
between X and Y and is known as the repo rate

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 8
The Risk-Free Rate
 The short-term risk-free rate traditionally used by
derivatives practitioners is LIBOR
 The Treasury rate is considered to be artificially low for a
number of reasons (See Business Snapshot 4.1)
 As will be explained in later chapters:
 Eurodollar futures and swaps are used to extend the
LIBOR yield curve beyond one year
 The overnight indexed swap rate is increasingly being
used instead of LIBOR as the risk-free rate

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 9
 Measuring Interest Rates
 The compounding frequency used
for an interest rate is the unit of
measurement
 The difference between quarterly
and annual compounding is
analogous/similar to the difference
between miles and kilometers

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 10
Impact of Compounding
When we compound m times per year at rate R an
amount A grows to A(1+R/m)m in one year

Compounding frequency Value of $100 in one year at 10%

Annual (m=1) 110.00
Semiannual (m=2) 110.25
Quarterly (m=4) 110.38
Monthly (m=12) 110.47
Weekly (m=52) 110.51
Daily (m=365) 110.52

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 11
 Continuous Compounding
(Pages 84-85)

 In the limit as we compound more and more

frequently we obtain continuously compounded
interest rates
 $100 grows to $100eRT when invested at a
continuously compounded rate R for time T
 $100 received at time T discounts to $100e-RT at
time zero when the continuously compounded
discount rate is R

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 12
 Conversion Formulas
(Page 85)

Define
Rc : continuously compounded rate
Rm: same rate with compounding m times
per year
 Rm 
Rc  m ln 1  
 m 
Rm  m e Rc / m
1  
Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 13
 Examples
 10% with semiannual compounding is
equivalent to 2ln(1.05)=9.758% with
continuous compounding[ Rc=10% &
Rm=9.758%]
 8% with continuous compounding is
equivalent to 4(e0.08/4 -1)=8.33% with quarterly
compounding[Rm=8% & Rc=8.33%]
 Rates used in option pricing are nearly
always expressed with continuous
compounding
Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 14
 Zero Rates

A zero rate (or spot rate), for maturity T is

the rate of interest earned on an
investment that provides a payoff only at
time T

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 15
 Example (Table 4.2, page 87)

Maturity Zero Rate

(years) (% cont. comp.)
0.5 5.0
1.0 5.8
1.5 6.4
2.0 6.8

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 16
 Bond Pricing

 To calculate the cash price of a bond we

discount each cash flow at the appropriate zero
rate
 In our example, the theoretical price of a two-
year bond providing a 6% coupon semiannually
is
3e 0.050.5  3e 0.0581.0  3e 0.0641.5
 103e 0.0682.0  98.39

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 17
 Bond Yield
 The bond yield is the discount rate that
makes the present value of the cash flows on
the bond equal to the market price of the
bond
 Suppose that the market price of the bond in
our example equals its theoretical price of
98.39
 The bond yield is given by solving

3e  y  0.5  3e  y 1.0  3e  y 1.5  103e  y  2.0  98.39

to get y = 0.0676 or 6.76% with cont. comp.
Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 18
 Par Yield
 The par yield for a certain maturity is the
coupon rate that causes the bond price to
equal its face value.
 In our example we solve
c 0.050.5 c 0.0581.0 c 0.0641.5
e  e  e
2 2 2
 c  0.0682.0
 100  e  100
 2
to get c=6.87 (with s.a. compounding)
Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 19
Par Yield continued
In general if m is the number of coupon
payments per year, d is the present
value of $1 received at maturity and A is
the present value of an annuity of $1 on
each coupon date
(100  100 d ) m
c
A

(in our example, m = 2, d = 0.87284,

and A = 3.70027)
Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 20
 Data to Determine Zero Curve
(Table 4.3, page 88)

Bond Principal Time to Coupon per Bond price ($)

Maturity (yrs) year ($)*
100 0.25 0 97.5
100 0.50 0 94.9
100 1.00 0 90.0
100 1.50 8 96.0
100 2.00 12 101.6

*
Half the stated coupon is paid each year

Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives 8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012 21
 The Bootstrap Method

 An amount 2.5 can be earned on 97.5 during 3

months.
 The 3-month rate is 4 times 2.5/97.5 or 10.256%
with quarterly compounding
 This is 10.127% with continuous compounding
 Similarly the 6 month and 1 year rates are
10.469% and 10.536% with continuous
compounding

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 22
 The Bootstrap Method continued

 To calculate the 1.5 year rate we solve

−0.10469× 0.5 −0.10536 ×1.0 −𝑅 ×1.5

4𝑒 +4 𝑒 +104 𝑒 =96
to get R = 0.10681 or 10.681%

 Similarly the two-year rate is 10.808%

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 23
 Zero Curve Calculated from the
Data (Figure 4.1, page 89)
12
Zero
Rate (%)
11

10.68 10.808
10.469 10.53 1
10 6
10.127

Maturity (yrs)
9
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 24
 Forward Rates

The forward rate is the future zero rate

implied by today’s term structure of interest
rates

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 25
 Formula for Forward Rates
 Suppose that the zero rates for time periods T1 and T2
are R1 and R2 with both rates continuously compounded.
 The forward rate for the period between times T1 and T2
is
R2 T2  R1 T1
T2  T1

 This formula is only approximately true when rates are

not expressed with continuous compounding

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 26
 Application of the Formula

Year (n) Zero rate for n- Forward rate for

year investment nth year
(% per annum) (% per annum)
1 3.0
2 4.0 5.0
3 4.6 5.8
4 5.0 6.2
5 5.5 6.5

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 27
 Upward vs Downward Sloping
Yield Curve

For an upward sloping yield curve:

Fwd Rate > Zero Rate > Par Yield

For a downward sloping yield curve

Par Yield > Zero Rate > Fwd Rate

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 28
 Forward Rate Agreement
 A forward rate agreement (FRA) is an
agreement that a certain rate will apply to
a certain principal during a certain future
time period

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 29
 Forward Rate Agreement: Key
Results
 An FRA is equivalent to an agreement where interest at
a predetermined rate, RK is exchanged for interest at
the market rate
 An FRA can be valued by assuming that the forward
LIBOR interest rate, RF , is certain to be realized
 This means that the value of an FRA is the present
value of the difference between the interest that would
be paid at interest rate RF and the interest that would
be paid at rate RK

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 30
 FRA Example
 A company has agreed that it will receive
4% on $100 million for 3 months starting in
3 years
 The forward rate for the period between 3
and 3.25 years is 3%
 The value of the contract to the company
is +$250,000 discounted from time 3.25
years to time zero
Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 31
 FRA Example Continued
 Suppose rate proves to be 4.5% (with
quarterly compounding
 The payoff is –$125,000 at the 3.25 year
point
 This is equivalent to a payoff of –$123,609
at the 3-year point.

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 32
 Theories of the Term Structure
Pages 94-95

 Expectations Theory: forward rates

equal expected future zero rates
 Market Segmentation: short, medium
and long rates determined independently
of each other
 Liquidity Preference Theory: forward
rates higher than expected future zero
rates

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 33
 Liquidity Preference Theory
 Suppose that the outlook for rates is flat
and you have been offered the following
choices
Maturity Deposit rate Mortgage rate
1 year 3% 6%
5 year 3% 6%

 What would you choose as a depositor?

What for your mortgage?
Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 34
 Liquidity Preference Theory cont
 To match the maturities of borrowers and
lenders a bank has to increase long rates
above expected future short rates
 In our example the bank might offer
Maturity Deposit rate Mortgage rate

1 year 3% 6%

5 year 4% 7%

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 4, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 35