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Global Demography

The document discusses the key concepts of demography, population growth trends over history, Malthusian theory of population, and the theory of demographic transition. It describes the four stages of demographic transition that societies generally progress through as they industrialize, from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. However, the demographic transition theory is not universally applicable and has been criticized for not accounting for differences between countries. Alternative theories like the fertility transition theory have also been proposed.

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23 views

Global Demography

The document discusses the key concepts of demography, population growth trends over history, Malthusian theory of population, and the theory of demographic transition. It describes the four stages of demographic transition that societies generally progress through as they industrialize, from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. However, the demographic transition theory is not universally applicable and has been criticized for not accounting for differences between countries. Alternative theories like the fertility transition theory have also been proposed.

Uploaded by

ortegamaryann15
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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You are on page 1/ 18

THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD

Global demography
Introduction
Demography
Demography is the scientific study of the determinants and consequences of
human population trends. By the beginning of the 21 st century, world
population reached 6 billion. Most growth has occurred in the past 200 years.
As can be gleaned from Figure 1, a massive increase of billions of people
occurred no less than 200 years ago. This is the global demographic transition,
brought by momentous changes, reshaping the economic and demographic
life cycles of individuals and restructuring populations. Clearly, before the
transition, the growth of world population is close to stationary, depicting that
life is short, births were many, growth is slow, and the population is young.
Since 1800, global population size has already increased by a factor of six and
by 2100 will have risen by a factor of 10. There will then be 50 times as many
elderly but only five times as many children; thus, the ratio of elders to
children will have risen by a factor of 10.
The length of life, which has already more than doubled, will have tripled,
while births per woman will have dropped from six to two (Lee, 2003).
The Malthusian Theory
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) was the first person to draw widespread
attention to the two components of natural increase- births and deaths
(fertility and mortality). Malthus formulated an essay titled “Essay on
the Principle of Population,” initially published in 1789, wherein he
postulated that population
Also, in the said essay, it was mentioned that population was held in in
equilibrium with the slowly growing economy. Faster population growth would
depress wages, causing mortality to rise due to famine, war or disease- in
short, misery. Depressed wages would also cause postponement of marriage,
resulting in prostitution and other vices, including contraception; this he
called the
“preventive” check.

Since population could potentially grow more rapidly than the economy, it was
always held in check by misery and vise, which were therefore the inevitable
human lot. Economic progress could help only temporarily because population
could soon grow to its new equilibrium level, where misery and vice would
again hold it in check. Only through moral restraint- that is, the chaste
postponement of marriage- did Malthus believe that humanity might avoid
this fate, and he though this an unlikely outcome (Lee, 2003).
Population Explosion
Contrary to what Malthus predicted, mortality has not risen to
curb world population growth. As mentioned, the world
population boomed up to near a billion in 1800 and reached 6
billion by the end of the 20th century. Apparently, Malthus did
not recognize the force of the Industrial Revolution, which
produced exponential growth in the means of subsistence.
The Demographic Transition
During the first half of the 20th century, demographers conceived the notion of the demographic
transition . The Demographic Transition Framework illustrates population growth in terms of
discrepancies and changes in two crude vital rates - mortality and fertility.
Stripped off the essentials, demographic transition refers to the transition from high birth and deaths
rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized
economic system.
The stages, as provided in Figure 3, are described as follows:
Stage 1: Preindustrial Society- high and unstable birth and death rates,
population growth rate slow, importance of children, low life expectancy
Reason for the changes in birth rate
1. Children are needed for farming
2. They die at an early age due to illness.
3. No family planning and conception/giving birth is encouraged by religion and
society.

Reason for the changes in death rate


4. Disease
5. Famine
6. Poor medical knowledge
Stage 2: Early Industrial Society- high birth rates, falling death rates, high
population growth
Reason for the changes in birth rate
1. Children are needed for framing
2. They die at an early age due to illnesses.
3. No family planning and conception/giving birth is encouraged by religion and
society.

Reasons for the changes in death rate


4. Improvements in medical care
5. Water
6. Supply and sanitation
7. Fewer children die
Stage 3: Late Industrial Society- low death rate, falling birth rate, high
population growth
Reasons for the changes in birth rate
1. Improved medical care and diet
2. Fewer children are needed for work

Reasons for the changes in the death rate


3. Improvements in medical care
4. Water
5. Supply and sanitation
6. Fewer children die
Stage 4: Post Industrial Society- low birth and death rates, low
population growth
Reason for the changes in birth rate
1. Family planning
2. Good haelth
3. Later marriages
4. Improving status of women

Reason for the changes in death rate


5. Good health care
6. Reliable food supply
7. People are living much longer
8. Improving status of women
Reasons for the changes in death rate
1. Good health care
2. Reliable food supply
3. People are living much longer
In summary, based on the demographic transition
model,it can be argued that because the
industrialized countries underwent a dramatic
change that resulted to lower rates of population
growth, the developing countries can emulate these
for their rates of population growth to become
lower.
Criticisms of the Demographic Transition Theory

The demographic transition is only based on Western societies


(Europe, America, Japan). It is not inevitable that there will be a
fall in fertility rates in less developed countries. The length of time
that the countries will traverse the stages, if they do,
unpredictable. Times changed since the developed world went
through demographic transition.
Ferility Transition Theory

This theory states that fertility is declining in the less developed countries
at a rate which exceeds the rate of decline that was experienced in developed
countries.It seems to be related directly to the extent to which modern
contraceptives are employed. In modern times, information about
contraceptives is widespread due to mass media.
Stripped off the major points, the fertility transition theory asserts that
while economic development can creat a climate conducive a reductions in
fertility, it is a change in cultural attitude aboutr large families and a
willingness to use contraception that matters, aside from the presence and
availability of contraception itself.
Still, opposition to birth control and family planning are
aplenty. The manufacture, distribution , and education about use
of contraceptives remain expensive. Religion can block birth
control programs. Others are of societal concerns: low status of
women, lack of political and economic rights, and lack of access
to education.
SUMMARY
Demography is a study of derterminants and consequences of
population trends. One important phase in world history is
demographic transition wherein the Malthusian theory had been
modified to cater several development stages of various countries.
This demographic transition theory is not free from any criticism at
all as the same does not apply to all countries and due to other
theories debunking it.
ASSESSMENT

1. Identify one essential learning that you obtained from this


lesson.
2. Reflect on how this learning will enable you to help the
following:
a. Your country
b. Your community
c. Your school
d. Your family

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