Anu Presentation
Anu Presentation
Baesens, B., 2015. Fraud Analytics Using Descriptive, Predictive, and Social Network Techniques
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Chosen Methodology:
CRISP-DM was selected for this problem solution.
Structured Approach: Guides the analytics process
step by step.
Adaptability: Flexible for addressing dynamic
fraud detection challenges.
Industry Standard: Widely recognized, ensuring a
comprehensive approach.
Benefits:
Understanding Business Context
Iterative Process
Effective Decision-Making
Angiulli, F. & Fassetti , F., 2017. A Deep Learning Approach for Unsupervised Anomaly Detection in Time Series.
Flowchart For
Proposed Model
Analytics Method
Method Used
Orange's machine learning algorithm Used were
Decision Tree
Tree Ensemble Model
Neural Network
Purpose
To develop models that adapt to emerging fraud patterns.
Final Model Selected
Neural Network due to its results.
Data Input Process
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Provost, F. & Fawcett, T., 2013. Data Science for Business.
Predictive Model
• Predictive model demonstrated clear
results with greater accuracy. AUC of
the model was 0.97
Gairola, S., Soni, J. & Gupta, . A. K., 2017. Credit Card Fraud Detection using Deep Learning.
Evaluation - Accuracy Metrics
Evaluation Metrics: Accuracy Assessment:
• Precision: 0.99 • Precision (Positive Predictive Value):
• Recall: 0.99 Achieved an outstanding precision of 0.99,
• F1-Score: 0.99 indicating that 99% of the predicted fraud
• Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC): 0.86 instances were true positives.
• Recall (Sensitivity): Demonstrated a recall of
0.99, showcasing the model's ability to
effectively identify nearly all actual instances of
fraud.
• MCC (Matthews Correlation Coefficient):
The MCC of 0.86 reflects a strong correlation
between the model's predictions and the actual
outcomes, ensuring the reliability of the results.
Expected Outputs
Software Efficiency:
• Orange's capabilities significantly enhanced the overall effectiveness of the chosen
methodology.
• The software facilitated seamless integration of diverse datasets, ensuring a comprehensive
analysis without compromising on privacy.
Advantages of Orange:
• Enabled efficient data preprocessing, including cleaning, transformation, and handling of
missing values.
• The user-friendly interface of Orange allowed for streamlined modeling, evaluation, and
visualization, reducing the complexity of the analytics process.
Summary of Results
Achievements:
• Successfully developed a robust fraud detection system with high accuracy.
• Orange's machine learning algorithms and visualization tools contributed
significantly to achieving precise and reliable results.
Implications:
• The results affirm the relevance of advanced analytics methodologies, emphasizing
the potential of machine learning in addressing contemporary business challenges
Limitations and Considerations
Limitations of Techniques:
• While achieving high precision and recall, it's essential to acknowledge the
limitations of the techniques employed.
• Addressing potential challenges such as imbalanced datasets, evolving fraud
patterns, and the need for continuous model updates.
Considerations for Future Work:
• The study provides a strong foundation but acknowledges the evolving nature
of fraud.
• Future work could focus on enhancing model adaptability to emerging fraud
tactics and further refining predictive capabilities.
Any Queries about this project?
Thanks