Demography

An Introduction to
Concepts and Issues

Dr. S. E. Moyo &

Mr. M. Khumalo
Unit 1 & II
 Unit 1

INTRODUCTION TO
DEMOGRAPHY
 Objectives of Unit 1
• Define demography
• Explain the purpose of demography
• Describe the main sources of
demographic data
• Apply the concepts of demography
in Primary Health Care setting
 Objectives of Unit II
• Discuss an overview of the world
population with emphasis on the
demographic transition theory
Definitions
• Demography is the study of populations
over time and over a place.

• A population is a group of individuals that

coexist at a point in time and share a
defining characteristic such as residence in
the same geographical area
Definitions
Two Greek roots:

• demos (people)

• graphy (branch of knowledge

regarding a particular science in this
case, human populations).
Other Definitions
• Guillard then defined demography
as: ‘the mathematical knowledge of
populations, their general
movements, and their physical, civil,
intellectual and moral state’
(Guillard, 1855).
Why Demography??
Why Demography?
• The scientific study of human
population.
• It is concerned with:
 Population size: actual number of
individuals in a population
 Population growth or decline:
Increase or decrease in the number
of individuals
It is also concerned with:
Population processes (levels and
trends in mortality, fertility and migration
that are determining population size and
change).
Population distribution: Places can be
sparsely or densely populated
Continued….
 Population structure: (how many
people by age, gender and
composition)
 Population characteristics
(education, religion or ethnicity)
 The Purposes of Demography
1. Population affects nearly every aspect of our social
lives: economic condition, the quality of our
environment and political affairs

2. Business: The most obvious use of demography in

business is the identification of shifts in the size,
structure and distribution of population that will have
an effect on the level of demand for the goods or
services provided by that business
 Purposes
3. Demographics of the workforce have
important long-term implications for benefits,
productivity, and business profitability

4. Management specialists study effects of

changing demographic structure on the
availability of personnel for performing various
jobs.
 Purposes
5. Country and law-makers: need
demographic information for budget allocations
for social programs

6. Health officials: need population based

public health and related demographic data for
planning and resource allocation
 Small Group Activity
• Make notes on how the concepts of
Demography can be useful/applied in
Primary health care settings

• Submit the work – 20 July 2022

• What are main sources of
demographic data?
• Describe each source in your
own words?
 Three main sources of
demographic data
1. Population Census
2. Vital/civil Registration System
3. Sample Surveys
Population Census:

• The most important source of

demographic data is the census.

• The word “census” is derived from

the Latin word censere which
means “to assess”.
• Describe the main features of
the population census? (make
reference the 2021 Botswana’s
Population census)
 Census features
1.The census covers the entire country
or a part of it.
2.The census operations are completed
within specified dates.
3.It is organized and conducted by the
Government through the Census
Commission of the country.
4.A census is usually conducted after an
interval of 10 years.
 Census Features
5. A household or family is treated as a
unit.
6. Before starting the census operations,
some preliminary steps are taken by the
Census Commission such as preparation
of schedules, lists of households in each
area, training of enumerators, etc.
7. The census data is published for
circulation.
Population Census Concept
• De facto" concept
• De jure" concept
 De facto" concept
• Under a "de facto" concept, the population
includes all persons who are in the
country/territory at the reference time-
point.
• The people who are usual residents but are
not physically present during the reference
time point are not included, but those who
are not usual residents but were present
during the census process are included.
"De jure" concept
• Under a "de jure" concept, all persons who
usually live in a country/territory at a
particular reference time-point will be counted
as the population of the country/territory.
Registration data
Registration is a secondary source
of demographic data which is
available from four sources:
•(1) Vital Registration Systems;
•(2) Population Register;
•(3) International Publications.
• Which ministry in Botswana is responsible for
Vital registration?

• Precisely which department?

 Vital Registration:

• Recording of vital events (or vital statistics) like births,

deaths, marriages, divorces, etc. is obligatory on the
part of every citizen in a country.

• For instance, the birth of a child has got to be

registered with the district where the child is born in
Botswana and vital statistics are recorded and kept by
the Civil and National Registration Office.
 Sample Surveys:

• In a sample survey, information is collected from a

sample of individuals rather than from the entire
population.
• A sample consists of only a fraction of the total
population.
• Several different population samples can be drawn on
the basis of sample surveys such as the number of
abortions, contraceptives used, etc. for the study of
fertility.
 Unit II
World Population History
 World Population
• According to the world bank: the world
population is estimated at 7.87 billion as of
2021.
• There has been a steady growth of the world
population over years.
• 1970 - 3.68 billion
• 2000 – 6.11 billion
• 2020 – 7.75 billion
Continental Population Distribution
World
Population Area Density Population
Continent (2020) (Km²) (P/Km²) Share
Asia 4,641,054,775 31,033,131 150 59.54%

Africa 1,340,598,147 29,648,481 45 17.20%

Europe 747,636,026 22,134,900 34 9.59%

North America 592,072,212 21,330,000 28 7.60%

South America 430,759,766 17,461,112 25 5.53%

Australia/ 43,111,704 8,486,460 5 0.55%

Oceania
F World Population Growth

Source: Joseph A. McFalls, Jr. Population: A Lively Introduction. Third

edition. Population Reference Bureau 53(3); 1998: 38
 Botswana population data
• The current population
of Botswana is 2,346179
• UN data = 2,443,026 as of Tuesday, June 7,
2022, based on Worldbarometer elaboration
• Botswana 2020 population is estimated
at 2,351,627 people at mid year according to
UN data.
Demographic Transition
Model
T.R. Malthus, 1766-1834

English clergyman, Thomas Robert

Malthus, was the first person to draw
widespread attention to the two
components of natural increase, births
and deaths –(fertility and mortality).
• The demographic transition model shows
population change over time.

• It studies how birth rate and death rate affect

the total population of a country.
 The five stages of the demographic
transition model
• Stage 1: Total population is low but it is balanced due to high
birth rates and high death rates.

• Stage 2: Total population rises as death rates fall due to

improvements in health care and sanitation. Birth rates remain
high.
• Stage 3: Total population is still rising rapidly. The gap between
birth and death rates narrows due to the availability of
contraception and fewer children being needed to work - due to
the mechanisation of farming. The natural increase is high.
 Demographic transition model
cont…
• Stage 4: Total population is high, but it is balanced by a
low birth rate and a low death rate. Birth control is widely
available and there is a desire for smaller families.

• Stage 5. Total population is high but going into decline due to

an ageing population. There is a continued desire for smaller
families, with people opting to have children later in life.
DTM with LEDCs and MEDCs
• As a country passes through the demographic
transition model, the total population rises.
LEDCs
• Most less economically developed
countries (LEDCs) are at stage 2 or 3 (with a
growing population and a high natural
increase).
MEDCs
•Most Medium economically developed
countries (MEDCs) are now at stage 4 of the
model and some such as Germany have
entered stage 5.
 Limitations of the model
• The model was developed after studying the experiences of
countries in Western Europe and North America. Conditions
might be different for LEDCs in different parts of the world.

• The original model doesn't take into account the fact that
some countries now have a declining population and a 5th
stage. Most texts will now show this stage as it is relevant to
an increasing number of MEDCs in the 21st century.
Stage 1 - High Stationary

• Birth Rate and Death rate are both high.

• Population growth is slow and
fluctuating.
Reasons

Birth Rate is high as a result of:

•Lack of family planning
•High Infant Mortality Rate
•Need for workers in agriculture
•Religious beliefs
Death Rate is high because of:
•High levels of disease
•Famine
•Lack of clean water and sanitation
•Lack of health care
•War
•Competition for food from predators such as rats
•Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least
Economically Developed Countries (LEDC's
Stage 2 - Early
Expanding
• Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate
is falling.
• Population begins to rise steadily.
Reasons

• Death Rate is falling as a result of:

• Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
• Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
• Improved sanitation
• Improved food production and storage
• Improved transport for food
• Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
• Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh;
Nigeria
Stage 3 - Late
Expanding
• Birth Rate starts to fall.
Death Rate continues to fall.
• Population rising.
Reasons:
•Family planning available
•Lower Infant Mortality Rate
•Increased mechanization reduces need
for workers
•Increased standard of living
•Changing status of women
•Typical and early 20th century; China;
Brazil
Stage 4 - Low
Stationary
• Birth Rate and Death Rate both
low. Population steady.
• Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan;
Britain
Stage 5 - Declining
Population
• Birth Rate remains low.
• Death rate begins to rise slightly,
resulting in a declining population
• Death rate rises slightly due to
lifestyle choices such as a poor diet
and smoking
• Examples: Germany, Scotland
Take Home Question
• Discuss the demographic transition
model with reference to each stage

• Place Botswana in the transition

model and support your choice