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Discrete Random

The document discusses discrete random variables and probability distributions. It provides examples and explanations of independence, probability distributions, expected values, Bayes' theorem, and mean and variance as they relate to discrete random variables. Several examples are worked through demonstrating concepts like independent events, probability calculations, and defining random variables and their distributions.

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christinamerill
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21 views

Discrete Random

The document discusses discrete random variables and probability distributions. It provides examples and explanations of independence, probability distributions, expected values, Bayes' theorem, and mean and variance as they relate to discrete random variables. Several examples are worked through demonstrating concepts like independent events, probability calculations, and defining random variables and their distributions.

Uploaded by

christinamerill
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Discrete Random Variables and

Probability Distribution
PROBABILITY

PROF DIVINA ESTACIO

APRIL 2024
Content

INDEPENDENCE
1 2 Random Variables

Probability
Distributions for Expected
3 Discrete Random 4 Values
Variables
INDEPENDENCE
Theorem: If X and Y are independent events, then the events X
and Y’ are also independent.

Proof: The events A and B are independent, so, P(X ∩ Y) = P(X)


P(Y). Let us draw a Venn diagram for this condition:
EXAMPLES:

1. Let X and Y are two independent


events such that P(X) = 0.3 and P(Y) =
0.7. Find P(X and Y), P(X or Y), P(Y not
X), and P(neither X nor Y).
Solution: P(X and Y) = P( X ∩ Y) = P(X) P(Y) = 0.3 × 0.7 =
0.21

P(X or Y) = P(X ∪ Y) = P(X) + P(Y) – P(X ∩ Y) = 0.3 + 0.7 –


0.21 = 0.79

P(Y not X) = P(Y ∩ X’) = P(Y) – P(X ∩ Y) = 0.7 – 0.21 = 0.49

And P(neither X nor Y) = P(X’ ∩ Y’) = 1 – P(X ∪ Y) = 1 – 0.79


= 0.21
EXAMPLE 2. A box contains 5 black, 7 red and 6 green balls. Three balls
are drawn from this box one after the other without replacement. What is the
probability that the three balls are
*all black balls
*of different colors
*two black and one green black.
SOLUTION:
Probability that the three balls are all black = P(B1) P(B2
| B1) P(B3 | B1 ∩ B2) = 5/18 × 4/17 × 3/16 = 5/408.
The probability that the three balls are all different in
color = P(B1) P(R1 | B1) P(G1 | B1 ∩ R1) = 5/18 × 7/17
× 6/16 = 35/816.
Probability that two black and one green balls are drawn
= P(B1) P(B2 | B1) P(G1 | B1 ∩ B2) = 5⁄18 × 4/17 ×
6/16 = 5/204
Baye’s Theorem
EXAMPLE 3: A manufacturing firm employs three analytical plans for the design
and development of a particular product. For cost reasons, all three are used at
varying times. In fact, plans 1, 2, and 3 are used for 30%, 20%, and 50% of the
products, respectively. The defect rate is different for the three procedures as follows:
P(D|P1)=0.01, P(D|P2)=0.03, P(D|P3)=0.02, where P(D|Pj ) is the probability of a
defective product, given plan j. If a random product was observed and found to be
defective, which plan was most likely usedn and thus responsible?
SOLUTION:
EXAMPLE 4: Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at
four different locations within the city limits. The radar traps at each of the
locations L1, L2, L3, and L4 will be operated 40%, 30%, 20%, and 30% of
the time. If a person who is speeding on her way work has probabilities of 0.2,
0.1, 0.5, and 0.2, respectively, of passing through these locations, what is the
probability that she will receive a speeding ticket?
SOLUTION: Let T denote the event that a person will
receive a speeding ticket then P(T∣L1)=0.4,
P(T∣L2)=0.3, P(T∣L3)=0.2, P(T∣L4)=0.3,
P(L1​)=0.2, P(L2​)=0.1, P(L3​)=0.5,P(L4​)=0.2
EXAMPLE 5 In a certain region of the country it is known from past
experience that the probability of selecting an adult over 40 years of age with
cancer is 0.05. If the probability of a doctor correctly diagnosing a person with
cancer as having the disease is 0.78 and the probability of incorrectly
diagnosing a person without cancer as having the disease is 0.06, what is the
probability that a person diagnosed as having cancer actually has the disease?
SOLUTION: GIVEN
P(C)=0.05, P(C')=0.95, P(D|C)=0.78, P(D|C')=0.06

FIND P(C|D), USING


Random Variables and
Probability
Distributions
A random variable is a function that associates a real
number with each element
in the sample space.

EXAMPLE 6: Two balls are drawn in succession without replacement from


an urn containing 4 red balls and 3 black balls. The possible outcomes and
the values y of the random variable Y , where Y is the number of red balls,
are
EXAMPLE 7: Consider the simple condition in which
components are arriving from the produc-
tion line and they are stipulated to be defective or not
defective. Define the random
variable X by
X = 1, if the component is defective,
0, if the component is not defective.
If a sample space contains a finite number of possibilities or an
unending sequence with as many elements as there are whole
numbers, it is called a discrete sample space.

If a sample space contains an infinite number of possibilities


equal to the number of points on a line segment, it is called a
continuous sample space.
Discrete Probability
Distributions
EXAMPLE 8:
EXAMPLE 9:
EXAMPLE 10
EXAMPLE 11
EXAMPLE 11
EXAMPLE 12
MEAN AND VARIANCE
=1.22
EXAMPLE 1
EXAMPLE 2
EXAMPLE 3
Let Y be a random variable which represents the
profit made by the grocery store.
EXAMPLE 4
Suppose that a grocery store purchases 5 cartons of skim milk at the wholesale
price of $1.20 per carton and retails the milk at $1.65 per carton. After the
expiration date, the unsold milk is removed from the shelf and the grocery
receives a credit from the distributor equal to three-fourths of the wholesale
price. If the probability distribution of the random variable X, the number of
cartons that are sold from this lot, is
LET X is the number of cartons sold
Y be a random variable which represents the
profit made by the grocery store

*1.65−1.20=$0.45 profit per every sold carton


*1.20-3/4•1.20=$0.30 loss per every unsold carton
​*Y=X⋅0.45−(5−X)⋅0.30= 0.75X - 1.5
Thanks
xxxxx

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