Global Demography

WEEK 13
Learning Outcomes
At the end of the lesson, you should be able to;

1. Define the term ‘demography’;

2. Discuss the relationship between population and economic welfare; and

3. Analyze the global demographic transition and its effects to global

population.
 Fast Talk
Do you intend to get marry?
Do you want to have children?
How many children do you want to have?
Reality Check for Having
Child/children
Symbol of successful union
Successor of generation
Preservation of kinship
Continue the story of the family
Compete parent’s attention
Economic asset or burden
What is demography?
is defined as the statistical study of
populations, especially human
beings. Population dynamics being
studied encompass the size,
structure, and distribution of
populations as well as the spatial or
temporal changes in them in
response to birth, migration, aging
and death.
 Population and Economic Welfare
Rural Communities Urban Communities
 More children to work in the farm  More children to assume the family
business
 Developing countries maintain a  Few children (one or two
high levels of population progenies)
 Large kinship as critical investment  Nuclear family can be easily
managed
 Global agriculture population has  Urban populations have grown.
decline.  In 21st Century, it grew into 44%
 In 1980-2011, rural population to 75%.
grew numerically from 2.2  Industries and Business are
billion to 2.6 billion people. attracting people from rural
area (Migration)
 Population and Economic Welfare
The peril of over population
◦ Development planners see urbanization and industrialization as
indicators of a developing society, but disagree on the role of population
growth or decline in modernization.
◦ Population growth will inevitably exhaust world food supply (Malthus,
Thomas, (An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1978)
◦ Overpopulation in the 1970s and the 1980s will bring about global
environmental disaster. (Ehrlich, Paul R. and Ehrlich, Anne, The Population Bomb)
Trends in Global Demography
Fast population growth (overpopulation of territories) in the developing
countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America (ranging between 80% to 95%),
which are characterized by a low space economy;
 Most Third World countries have no population growth control or clear
demographic policy;
Ageing and depopulation resulting from narrowed population reproduction
(demographic crisis) in industrialized countries, primarily in Western Europe;
 Uneven population growth worldwide;
 Population reproduction growth typical of the planet when mortality decline
is not matched with birthrate decline.
Demographic Transition Model
Stages of Demographic Transition Model by Lesthaeghe (2010)
Stage 1. Birth rates and death rates are high. As a result, population size
remains fairly constant but can have major swings with events such as wars or
pandemics.
Stage 2. With the introduction of modern medicine, death rates are lowered,
especially among children. Birth rates, however, remain high, which as a
result, hasten population growth. Many of the least developed countries today
are in this stage.
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 3. Birth rates gradually decrease. This is accounted to improved
economic conditions, an increase in women’s status, and access to
contraception. While population continue to grow, it is at a lower rate. Most
developing countries are in this stage.
Stage 4. Birth and death rates are both low, thus stabilizing the population.
Countries in this stage tend to have stronger economies, higher levels of
education, better healthcare, a higher proportion of working women.
Fertility rate hovers around two children per woman. Many developed
countries are also in this stage.
Stage 5. Fertility rates have fallen significantly below replacement level (2
children) and the elderly population is greater than the youthful population.
Demographic Transition Model
Lloyd (2010) gives us a demographic transition model as follows;
Stage 1. High fluctuation.
◦ Population growth is small Some reasons for high birth rate are:
a.limited birth control;
b.high infant mortality rate that encourages the birth of more children; and
c. children are seen as a future source of income, therefore the mind set
that it would be more economically beneficial to have more kids.
Stage 2. High birth rate but falling death rate.
◦ Total population begins to expand rapidly. Some reasons for falling death rate
include:
a. improved public health;
b. better nutrition; and
c. lower child mortality.
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 3. Falling birth rate, continuing falling death rate. The population
growth rate slows down. Some reasons for falling birth rate are: preferences
for smaller families (cheaper); changes in social trends and fashions rise in
materialism (i.e. would rather spend money on expensive go ods than pay for
more kids) lower infant mortality rate
Stage 4. Low fluctuating, low birth rate, and low death rate. Population growth
remains small with fertility rates continually fall. There are changes in
personal life and styles, and more women are in the work force, therefore
lesser couples are having kids (they’d rather get their careers sorted out first);
Stage 5. Death rate slightly exceeds the birth rate, and this cause population
decline. This stage has only been recognized, and there are very few
countries that are considered in this stage. Some reasons for low birth rate
include: rise in individuals greater financial independence of women;
Demographic Model
This data is based on the latest United Nations Population
Division estimates as cited by worldometers.info. World Population as
of today, 2022

1. Fertility – 2.5 (Live Births

per Woman)
2. Life Expectancy – 73.2
years (both sexes)
Top 10 Most Populous Countries
Top 10 Most Populous Countries (2020)
1. China 1,439,323,776
2. India 1,380,004,385
3. United States 331,002,651
4. Indonesia 273,523,615
5. Pakistan 220,892,340
6. Brazil 212,559,417
7. Nigeria 206,139,589
8. Bangladesh 164,689,383
9. Russia 145,934,462
10. Mexico 128,932,753
11. Philippines* 109,581,078
Top 10 Least Populous Countries
(as of 2020)

1. Holy See 801

2. Tokelau 1,357

3. Niue 1,626

4. Falkland Islands 3,480

5. Montserrat 4,992

6. Saint Pierre & Miquelon 5,794

7. Saint Helena 6,077

8. Saint Barthelemy 9,877

9. Nauru 10,824

10. Wallis & Futuna 11,239

Top 10 Highest Covid-19 Death
(as of February
1. United States
17, 2021)
499, 991
2. Brazil 240, 983
3. Mexico 175, 986
4. India 155, 949
5. United Kingdom 118, 195
6. Italy 94, 171
7. France 82, 812
8. Russia 81, 446
9. Germany 66, 536
10.Spain 65, 979
* 32. Philippines 11, 577

Total Deaths: 2, 430, 907

End