Pertemuan 3
Pertemuan 3
Assessment:
Metode Analisis Ekonomi
1
Introduction to Health
Economics
Nelly BIONDI ,
South African Centre of Epidemiological Modelling and
Analysis (SACEMA),
Makerere University, 21th July 2009
2
Outline
3
Part 1:
What is Health Economics?
The importance of Economic evaluation.
Economists view of the world…
5
The ‘Health Economic’ problem
Unlimited healthcare “wants”
with rapid growth in health
expenditure.
6
Concept of opportunity cost
• “ The value of forgone benefit which could be obtained
from a resource in its next-best alternative use”.
Pg ‘A’ Pg ‘B’
Budget
7
What is Health Economics?
Theoretical framework to help healthcare professionals,
decision-makers or governments to make choices on…
8
Economic evaluation is…
“ The comparative analysis of alternative courses of
action in terms of both their costs and consequences in
order to assist policy decisions” (Drummond et al,1997)
9
Economic Evaluation criteria
Economic evaluation is used to ensure that limited
resources are allocated as efficiently as possible.
Technical efficiency: meeting a given objective at least cost.
Allocative efficiency: producing exactly what society wants.
10
11
Part 2:
13
Deciding upon the study question
Identifying the problem and aims of evaluation
What is the problem?
Why is this problem important?
What aspects of the problem need to be explained?
14
Deciding upon the study question
Defining the perspective of the study
Patient / Providers / Payers / Healthcare system / Society.
Choosing a perspective depends on the audience.
15
Assessment of costs
Overview of costing process:
Identification of costs
Cost type: direct vs indirect vs intangible.
Cost category: programme, patient.
Organizational level: national, regional, district.
Input category: capital vs recurrent.
Intervention activities: planning, administration, media, training.
Time: start-up vs post-implementation.
Funding: national govt vs NGO vs donor.
16
Assessment of costs
Measurement
Measure in natural physical units (e.g. hours of labour time).
Fixed, variable and total costs.
Average versus marginal costs.
Marginal versus incremental costs.
17
Assessment of costs
Table 1: Number of cases detected & costs of screening with Table 2: Changes in cases detected and in costs of sequential guaiac
sequential guaiac tests tests
Number of Total cases Total costs Average cost per Number of Additional cases Additional costs Marginal cost
tests detected (£) case detected (£) tests detected (£) (additional cost per
1 65.9496 77,511 1,175 additional case
detected (£)
2 71.4424 107,690 1,507
1 65.9496 77,511 1,175
3 71.9003 130,199 1,811 2 5.4956 30,179 5,492
4 71.9385 148,116 2,059 3 0.4580 22,509 49,150
5 71.9417 163,141 2,268 4 0.0382 17,917 469,534
6 71.9420 176,331 2,451 5 0.0032 15,024 4,724,695
(For a population of 10,000, costs include stool tests and barium- 6 0.0003 13,190 47,107,214
enema examinations on those found positive)
From Neuhauser and Lewicki (1975)
18
Assessment of costs
Valuation
Market prices (e.g. wage rates) used unless strong belief they do
not reflect opportunity cost (e.g. volunteers).
Local currencies vs international currencie.
Adjustments for price inflation.
Calculation
Multiply unit of measurement by unit cost (e.g. 2 hours of time at
$5 per hour = $10 labour cost).
19
Assessment of health effects
Overview of the process:
Identification
Which outcome measure is employed depends on the objective of
the evaluation.
This then determines the type of evaluation.
Measurement
Measure effectiveness not efficacy.
Measure (count) in natural physical units.
Measure final not intermediate outcomes.
20
Assessment of health effects
Valuation if appropriate
Value is determined by benefits sacrificed elsewhere (see
opportunity cost again).
Valuation either in terms of:
Utility (e.g. QALY, DALY, HYE)
Money (e.g. WTP)
21
Assessment of health effects
Zoom on the concept of QALY:
22
Adjusting for timing
Discounting
Prefer to have benefits now and bear costs in the future – ‘time
preference’
Rate of time preference is termed ‘discount rate
To allow for differential timing of costs (and benefits) between
programmes all future costs (and benefits) should be stated in
terms of their present value using discount rate.
Thus, future costs given less weight than present costs.
23
Sensitivity analysis
Process of assessing the robustness of an economic
evaluation by considering the effects of uncertainty.
Consists in:
Identifying the (uncertain) variables.
Specifying the plausible range over which they should vary.
Recalculating results, usually based on:
One-way analysis
Multi-way analysis
Extreme scenario analysis
Threshold analysis.
24
Part 3:
26
Cost minimization Analysis
Specific type of analysis in which the outcomes of the 2
(or more) healthcare interventions are assumed equal.
27
Cost-effectiveness Analysis
In CEA, outcomes are measured in natural or physical
units (e.g. heart attacks avoided, deaths avoided…).
28
Cost-effectiveness Analysis
Decision rule:
Two programmes A (comparator) and B.
• If Outcome B = Outcome A => Compare costs (CMA).
• If Outcome B > Outcome A and Cost B < Cost A, B is dominant.
• If Outcome B > Outcome A and Cost B > Cost A, we have to
make a decision.
29
Cost-effectiveness Analysis
The most commonly CERs used are the:
Average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER)
Cost B
ACER=
Effectiveness B
Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER)
Cost B−Cost A
ICER=
Effectiveness B−Effectiveness A
30
Cost-effectiveness Analysis
There is no ‘magic’ cut-off number that establishes
whether or not an intervention is ‘cost-effective’.
To make a decision:
If ICER of the program ≤ ceiling ratio → adopt the program
If ICER of the program > ceiling ratio → do not adopt the
program
31
Cost-effectiveness Analysis
The cost-effectiveness acceptability Plane:
32
Cost-utility Analysis
In CUA, the outcomes are measured in healthy years,
to which a value has been attached.
33
Cost-benefit Analysis
CBA try to value the outcomes in monetary terms, so
as to make them commensurate with the costs.
34
Summary
Type of Analysis Costs Consequences Result
Result
Identical in all
Cost Minimisation Money respects.
Least
Least cost
cost alternative.
alternative.
As
As for
for CUA
CUA but
but Net
Net ££
Cost
Cost Benefit
Benefit Money
Money cost:
valued
valued inin money.
money. cost: benefit
benefit ratio.
ratio.
35
36
Background
• Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is a leading
cause of maternal death.
• Despite strong evidence showing the efficacy of
oxytocin in preventing PPH, use of the drug for
this purpose remains suboptimal.
• The Uniject injection system prefilled with
oxytocin (OiU) has the potential advantage, due
to its ease of use, to increase oxytocin
coverage rates (OCR).
37
Objectives
• To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of OiU
in Latin America and the Caribbean
(LAC).
38
Methods
• An epidemiological model was built to estimate the
impact of replacing oxytocin in ampoules with OiU on
the incidence of PPH, quality-adjusted life years
(QALYs), and costs, from a health care perspective.
• A systematic search for data on epidemiology and cost
studies was undertaken.
• A consensus panel among LAC experts was performed
to quantify the expected increase in OCR as a
consequence of making OiU available.
• Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were
performed.
39
Results (1)
• In the threshold analysis the minimum required
increment in the OCR to make OiU a cost- effective
strategy ranged from 1.3% in Suriname to 15.8% in
Haiti.
• In more than 60% of the countries, the required
increment was below 5%.
• OiU could prevent more than 40,000 PPH episodes
annually in LAC.
• In 27% of the countries, OiU was found to be cost
saving.
40
Results (2)
• In the remaining 22 countries, OiU was
associated with a net cost increment (0.005 to
0.847 2013 US dollars per delivery).
• OiU strategy ranged from being dominant to
having an incremental cost- effectiveness ratio
(ICER) of US$ 8,990 per QALY gained.
• In the great majority of countries these ICERs
were below one GDP per capita.
41
Conclusions
• OiU was cost-saving or very cost-effective in
almost all countries.
• Even if countries can achieve only small
increases in OCR by incorporating OiU, this
strategy could be considered an efficient use of
resources.
• These results were robust in the sensitivity
analysis under a wide range of assumptions
and scenarios.
42