CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

Section II-1:
Basic Reliability Engineering
 Stress-Strength, Failure Rate
 Wear out / Bathtub Curve
 Reliability / Unreliability
 Reliability Engineering Terms
 Constant Failure Rate

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

Stress - Strength: Failures

All failures occur when stress exceeds the
associated level of strength.
Heat
Humidity
Stress is usually a Shock
combination of "stressors." Vibration
Electrical Surge
Failure Rate - Number of Electro-Static Discharge
failures per unit time Radio Frequency
Failures/hour Interference
Mis-calibration
Failures per million hours Maintenance Errors
Failures per billion hours (FITS) Operational Errors
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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

Stress - Strength: Failures

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5
Strength
0.4
Stress
0.3

0.2

0.1

Strength varies - with time, with other stress, etc.

Stress also varies with time.
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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

Stress - Strength: Failures

0.009
0.008
0.007
Failure rate

0.006
0.005
0.004
0.003
0.002
0.001
0
1 101 201 301 401 501 601 701 801 901
Tim e

Simulation of normal stress - normal strength

shows decreasing failure rate.
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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

At some point in time, strength decreases

and the failure rate increases rapidly.

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

0.025

0.02
Failure rate

0.015

0.01

0.005

0
1

101

201

301

401

501

601

701

801
Time

This is called Wear out

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

0.025

0.02
Failure rate

0.015

0.01

0.005

0
1

101

201

301

401

501

601

701

801
Time

This is called Wear out. The overall Failure Rate curve as a

function of time is known as the "bathtub curve."
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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

0.025

0.02
Constant Failure Rate
Failure rate

0.015 during “Useful Life”

0.01

0.005

0
1

101

201

301

401

501

601

701

801
Time

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1
Reliability / Safety Engineering Terminology
• “Probability of Success” - the chance that a
system will perform its intended function when
operated within its specified limits.
• “Reliability” - the probability of success during
an interval of time excluding repair
R(t) = P(T>t) where T = Failure Time for an interval 0 - t.
• “Unreliability” - the probability of failure during
an interval of time
F(t) = P(T<=t)
• R(t) = 1 - F(t) (complementary events)

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

“Reliability” - the probability of success during an

interval of time
R(t) = P(T>t) where T = Failure Time for an interval 0 - t.

1
Eventually it will fail!

0
Time Interval
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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

• “Unreliability” - the probability of failure during an

interval of time
• F(t) = P(T<=t)
• R(t) = 1 - F(t) (complementary events)

Cumulative
Distribution
Function

Eventually it will
0 fail!
Time Interval

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

• “Probability of Success” - the chance that

a system will perform its intended function
when operated within its specified limits.
• “Availability” - the probability of success
at a moment in time – mean value
including repair
A = P(T=t)
• “Unavailability” - the probability of failure
at a moment in time
U = P(T=t)
• A=1-U
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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

PFS
RELIABILITY
Nuisance Trip
AVAILABILITY
PFD

SUCCESSFUL UNSUCCESSFUL
OPERATION OPERATION

PFS - Probability of Safe Failure

PFD - Probability of Failure on Demand (Dangerous Failure)
RRF - Risk Reduction Factor = 1/PFD
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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

• “Failure Rate” - Failures per unit time per device.

• “Mean Time To Failure (MTTF)” - The average
successful operating time interval of a system.
• “Mean Time To Repair (MTTR)” - The average
repair time interval of a system. Applies only to
repairable systems!

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) - The

average time interval of one failure/repair
cycle of a system. Applies only to repairable
systems.
MTBF=MTTF + MTTR

TTF
TTF
TTR TTR

TBF TBF

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

CONSTANT FAILURE RATE

 t
R (t )  e Common Assumption -
reasonable for the
 t middle of the failure
F (t )  1  e rate curve. Even if the
failure rate is

 (t )  
decreasing (more
realistic), this
assumption is
1 conservative.
MTTF 

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

 t  t
R (t )  e F (t )  1  e
1

0.8
F(t)
Probability

0.6

0.4

R(t)
0.2

0
10

13

16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37

40

43

46

49
1

Time Interval - Mission Time

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

A Useful Approximation:
 t
F (t )  1  e
2 3 4
x x x
e  1  x     ....
x

2! 3! 4!
e  1 x
x

e  t
 1  t F (t )  t
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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

CONSTANT FAILURE RATE

Approximation
3.5

F (t )  t
3

2.5

 t
1.5

1
F (t )  1  e
0.5

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

CONSTANT FAILURE RATE

Single Failure Mode
 t
R(t )  e Reliability What about
 t repairable
F (t )  1  e Unreliability systems?

MTTF = 1/
OK Fail
 MTTR = 1/
Constant Repair Rate

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1


MTTF = 1/ OK Fail
MTTR = 1/ 
Constant Repair Rate

A = MTTF / MTTF+MTTR
U = MTTR / MTTF+MTTR
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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1

Summary:
Basic Reliability Engineering
 Stress-Strength, Failure Rate
 Wear out / Bathtub Curve
 Reliability / Unreliability
 Reliability Engineering Terms
 Constant Failure Rate

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1
Exercise 1
Basic Reliability Engineering

A system has a probability of failure (all

modes) for each one-year mission time of 0.1.
What is the probability of failure for a ten-year
mission time? (No tricks, no wear out, etc.)

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1
Exercise 2
Basic Reliability Engineering

Which term requires successful operation for

an entire interval of time, reliability or
availability?

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1
Exercise 3
Basic Reliability Engineering
Unavailability for a system with one failure
mode is given as 0.001. What is the
availability?

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1
Exercise 4
Basic Reliability Engineering

A module has an MTTF of 80 years for all

failure modes. Assuming a constant failure
rate, what is the total failure rate for all failure
modes?

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1
Exercise 5
Basic Reliability Engineering

A module has an MTTF of 80 years. It has one

failure mode. It has an average repair time,
MTTR, of 8 hours. What is the steady state
availability?

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1
Exercise 6
Basic Reliability Engineering

A module has an MTTF of 80 years. What is

the reliability of this module for a time period
of six months?

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1
Exercise 1 (Key)
Basic Reliability Engineering

A system has a probability of failure (all

modes) for each one-year mission time of 0.1.
What is the probability of failure for a ten-year
mission time? (No tricks, no wear out, etc.)
F(1y) = 0.1; R(1y) = 0.9
R(10y) = 0.9^10 = 0.35
F(10y) = 1 – R(10y) = 0.65 or
 = -ln(R(10y)) = -ln(0.9) =
0.1054
F(10y) = 1 31– e(-*10y) = 0.65
CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1
Exercise 2 (Key)
Basic Reliability Engineering

Which term requires successful operation for

an entire interval of time, reliability or
availability?

Reliability

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1
Exercise 3 (Key)
Basic Reliability Engineering
Unavailability for a system with one failure
mode is given as 0.001. What is the
availability?

A = 1 – U = 1 – 0.001 = 0.999

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1
Exercise 4 (Key)
Basic Reliability Engineering

A module has an MTTF of 80 years for all

failure modes. Assuming a constant failure
rate, what is the total failure rate for all failure
modes?

 = 1 / MTTF = 1 / 80years = 0.0125 failures/year

 = 1.43E-06 failures/hour

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1
Exercise 5 (Key)
Basic Reliability Engineering

A module has an MTTF of 80 years. It has one

failure mode. It has an average repair time,
MTTR, of 8 hours. What is the steady state
availability?

A = (80*8760h) / (80*8760h+8h)
= 0.999988585

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CFSE Exam Preparation: Section II-1
Exercise 6 (Key)
Basic Reliability Engineering

A module has an MTTF of 80 years. What is

the reliability of this module for a time period
of six months?

 = 1 / MTTF = 1 / 80years
= 0.0125 failures/year
R = e(-* 0.5years) = 0.99377
R ≈ 1 – ( * 0.5years) = 0.99375
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