SIMULATION &

MODELLING
Course No: CSC317
Nature of Course: Theory +Lab
Full Marks: 60+20+20
Pass Marks: 24+8+8

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Text Book:
Jerry Banks , John S.Carson,Barry L . Nelson , David M . Nicol “Discrete -Event
System Simulation", Pearson Education

Reference Books:
1. G. Gorden , “System Simulation ” , Prentice Hall of India M . Law & R.F.
Perry
2. “Simulation : A Problem Solving Approach”, Addison Wesley Publishing
Company
3. M . Law & W.D Kelton , “Simulation & Modelling & Analysis” MCGraw
Hill,1991 2
UNIT-1 INTRODUCTION TO SIMULATION

Contents:
 System concept, Boundary, environment
 Continuous and Discrete System,
 Types of simulation model (Static Physical, Dynamic Physical, Static Mathematical)
 Principles used in modeling
 Distributed lag model
 Phases and steps in simulation study
 Advantages and Disadvantages of Simulation
 Areas of Application
 Real time simulation

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WHAT IS SIMULATION?
 It is an experiment in a computer where the real system is replaced by the execution of the
program that mimics (imitate) the behavior of the real system.
 It involves the generation of the artificial history of a system and observing that history to
draw inferences concerning the operating characteristics of the real system.
 That is, simulation is the representation of a real life system by another system, which
depicts the important characteristics of the real system and allows experimentation on it.
 Simulation modeling can be used both as an analysis tool for predicting the effect of
changes to existing systems and as a design tool to predict the performance of new
systems under varying sets of circumstances
 Simulation has long been used by the researchers, analysts, designers and other
professionals in the physical and non-physical experimentations and investigations.

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WHY TO SIMULATE ?
 It may be too difficult, hazardous, or expensive to observe a real,
operational system
 Parts of the system may not be observable (e.g., internals of a
silicon chip or biological system)
 Uses of simulations
• Analyze systems before they are built
• Reduce number of design mistakes
• Optimize design
• Analyze operational systems
• Create virtual environments for training, entertainment
• To verify and reinforce analytic solutions

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WHEN TO USE SIMULATION ?
 Over the years tremendous developments have taken place in computing capabilities
and in special purpose simulation languages, and in simulation methodologies.
Accordingly, the use of simulation techniques has also become widespread.
 Following are some of the purposes for which simulation may be used.
1. Simulation is very useful for experiments with the internal interactions of a
complex system, or of a subsystem within a complex system.
2. Simulation can be employed to experiment with new designs and policies, before
implementing them.
3. Simulation can be used to verify the results obtained by analytical methods and
reinforce the analytical techniques.
4. Simulation is very useful in determining the influence of changes in input variables
on the output of the system.
5. Simulation helps in suggesting modifications in the system under investigation for
its optimal performance
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WHEN NOT TO SIMULATE?
 The article b Banks and Gibson[1977] gives following rules for evaluating
when simulation is not appropriate.
• When the problem can be solved by common sense.
• if problem can be solved analytically.
• if it is less expensive to perform direct experiments.
• if cost exceeds the savings.
• if time and resources are not available.
• if data is not available, not even estimates.
• if not able to verify and validate the model.
• if managers have unreasonable expectations, if they ask for too much too soon or if the
power of simulation is overestimated
• if system behavior is too complex or cannot be defined

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WHAT IS A MODEL?
 It is a simplification of the reality
 A (usually miniature) representation of something; an example
for imitation or emulation
 A model is a simplified representation of a system at some
particular point in time or space intended to promote
understanding of the real system.

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SYSTEM
• The term system is derive from the Greek word systema,
which means an organized relationship among functioning units or
components.
• System exists because it is designed to achieve one or more
objectives.
• We come into daily contact with the transportation system, the
telephone system, the accounting system, the production system, and
the computer system.
• There are more than a hundred definitions of the word system, but
most seem to have a common thread that suggests that a system is
an orderly grouping of interdependent components linked together
according to a plan to achieve a specific objective
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SYSTEM
 A system is defined as an aggregation or assemblage(collection)
of objects joined in some regular interaction or interdependence.

System Environment

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SYSTEM
 The study of the systems concepts then has , then, has
three basic implications:
1. A system must be designed to achieve a predetermined
objective
2. Interrelationships and interdependence must exist among the
components
3. The objectives of the organization as a whole have a higher
priority than the objectives of its subsystems

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Example : A factory system

Finished Products

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A FACTORY SYSTEM
 Consider a factory that make assembles parts for a product.
 Two major components of the factory system are the fabrication department
that makes the part & the assembly department that produces the product.
 A purchasing department maintains supply of raw materials & a shipping
department dispatches(send) the finished product.
 A production control department receives order & assigns work to the other
department.
 All departments jointly work together to run the factory smoothly.

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COMPUTER SYSTEM

INPUT CPU OUTPUT

MEMORY STORAGE

 The INPUT, CPU, OUTPUT, MEMORY and STORAGE subsystems

have different roles in computing system.
 To fulfill the data processing need, all these subsystems of computer
must work interdependently.
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COMPONENTS OF A SYSTEM
Three basic components of a system are:
• Entity
• Attributes
• Activities
Entity: - It is used to denote an object of interest in a system.
Attribute: - It denotes a property of an entity.
Activity:- Any process that causes changes in the system is
called as an activity.
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EXAMPLE
In the factory system
 The entities are the department, orders, parts and
products.
 Attributes are such factors as the quantities for each
order, type of part or number of machines in a
department.
 The activities are the manufacturing process of the
departments.
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STATE OF A SYSTEM
 It is used to mean a description of all the entities, attributes and
activities as they exist at one point of time.
 The progress of the system is studied by following the changes in
the state of the system.

STATE VARIABLES
 The system state variables are the collection of all information
needed to define what is happening within the system to a sufficient
level (i.e., to attain the desired output) at a given point in time.
 In the study of a bank, possible state variables are the number of busy
tellers, the number of customers waiting in line or being served, and
the arrival time of the next customer.
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 EXAMPLES OF SYSTEM AND THEIR
COMPONENTS
System Entities Attributes Activities Event State Variables
Banking Customers Checking-account making arrivals, number of busy tellers;
balance deposits departure number of customers
waiting
Rapid Rail Riders Origin; destination Travelling Arrival at number of riders waiting
station; arrival at each station; number of
at destination riders in transit
Production machines speed; capacity; Welding; Breakdown status of machines ( busy,
breakdown rate stamping idle, or down)
Communications messages Length; destination transmitting Arrival at number waiting to be
destination transmitted
Inventory Warehouse( i Capacity withdrawing Demand Levels of inventory;
nventory backlogged demands
manager)

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SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT
 A system is often affected by changes occurring outside the system.
 Such changes occurring outside the system are said to occur in the system
environment.
 An important step in modelling system is to decide upon the boundary
between the system and its environment.
 For example, in case of factory system, the factors controlling the arrival
of orders may be considered to be outside that influence of the factory
and therefore part of the environment.

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SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT
 The term endogenous is used to describe activities occurring within the
system.
Example: sports, cultural functions in a university system, drawing cash in
bank system
 The term exogenous is used to describe the activities in the environment
that affect the system. Example: strikes in a university system, arrival of
customers in a bank
 Based on these activities a system may be classified as open or closed
system.
 A system for which there is no exogenous activity is said to be a closed
system. It is practically unrealizable.
 A system that has exogenous activities is called as an open system.
For instance, Bank, hospital, supermarket are open systems.
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DETERMINISTIC VS
STOCHASTIC ACTIVITIES
 Depending on the manner on which they can be described, activities can be classified as
deterministic or stochastic.
 Deterministic: An activity is said to be deterministic where the outcome of an activity
can be described completely in term of its input. It does not contain random elements.
Example: AND, OR, NOT operations, Simulation of a digital circuit
 Simulation of a chemical reaction based on differential equations
 Stochastic: An activity is said to be stochastic where the effects of the activity vary
randomly over various possible outcomes. It contains probabilistic (random )
elements.
Example:
• Throwing a dice or tossing a coin.
• Inter-arrival time or service time of customers at a restaurant or store
• Amount of time required to service a customer
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DISCRETE SYSTEM
 Discrete system: Systems in which the changes are predominantly(mainly)
discontinuous are called discrete system. That is, the state variables change only
at a discrete set of time.
 Example: Changes in the factory occur discontinuously so factory system is a
discrete system.
 In bank system, no. of customers (state variable) changes only when a customer
arrives or service provided to customer i.e. customer depart form system.

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CONTINUOUS SYSTEM
 Continuous system: Systems in which the changes are
predominantly smooth are called continuous system.
 Continuous system is one in which the state variables change
continuously over time.
 Example 1: The movement of the aircraft occurs smoothly so aircraft
system is a continuous system.
 Example 2, during winter seasons level of which water decreases
gradually and during rainy season level of water increase gradually.
 The change in water level is continuous.
 The figure below shows the change of water level over time.
 The continuous system is typically described by a set of differential
equations.

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Advantages of simulation
• Simulation can also be used to study systems in the design
stage.
• Simulation models are run rather than solver.
• New policies, operating procedures, decision rules,
information flows, organizational procedures, and so on can be
explored without disrupting ongoing operations of the real
system.
• New hardware designs, physical layouts,
transportation systems, and so on can be tested without
committing resources for their acquisition.
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Advantages of simulation
• Hypotheses about how or why certain phenomena occur can
be tested for feasibility
• Time can be compressed or expanded to allow for a speed-
up or slow-down of the phenomena under investigation.
• Insight can be obtained about the interaction of variables.
• Insight can be obtained about the importance of variables to
the performance of the system.

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Advantages of simulation
• Bottleneck analysis can be performed to discover where
work in process, information, materials, and so on are being
delayed excessively.
• A simulation study can help in understanding how the system
operates rather than how individuals think the system
operates.
• what-if" questions can be answered.
• Useful in the design of new systems.

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Limitations/Disadvantages of the
Simulation technique
 Model building requires special training.
 It is an art that is learned over time and through experience.
 Simulation results can be difficult to interpret
 Most simulationoutputs are essentially random variables
(they are usually based on random inputs), so it can be
hard to distinguish whether an observation is a result of system
interrelationships. of randomness.

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Limitations/Disadvantages of the
Simulation technique
 Simulationmodeling and analysis can be time
consuming and expensive.
 Skimping (Economical) on resources for modeling and analysis could
result in a simulation model or analysis that is not sufficient to the task.
 Simulation is used in some cases when an analytical
solution is possible, or even preferable.
 This might be particularly true in the simulation of some waiting lines
where closed-form queuing models are available.

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When simulation is the appropriate tool:

 Simulation enables the study of and experimentation with the internal
interactions of a complex system, or of a subsystem
within a complex system.
 Informational, organizational and environmental changes can be simulated
and the effect of those alternations on the model’s behavior can be observer.
 The knowledge gained in designing a simulation model can be of
great value to suggesting improvement in the system under
investigation.
 By changing simulation inputs and observing the resulting outputs, valuable
insight may be obtained into which variables are most
important and how variables interact.

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When simulation is the appropriate tool:

 Simulation can be used as a pedagogical(academic) device to reinforce (highlight)
analytic solution methodologies.
 Simulation can be used to experiment with new designs or policies prior
implementation, so as to prepare for what may happen.
 Simulation can be used to verify analytic solution.
 By simulating different capabilities for a machine, requirements can be determined.
 Simulation models designed for training, allow learning without the cost and
disruption of on-the-job learning.
 Animation shows a system in simulated operation so that the plan can be
visualized.
 The modern system (factory, water fabrication plant, service organization etc.)
is so complex that the interactions can be treated only
through simulation.

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When Simulation Is Not Appropriate

 Simulation should not be used when the problem can be solved using
common sense.
 Simulation should not be used if the problem can be solved
analytically (logically).
 Simulation should not be used if it is easier to perform direct
experiments.
 Do not to use simulation, if the costs exceed the savings
 Simulation should not be performed if the resources or time are
not available. ifa decision in needed is two weeks and a
simulation will take a month, the simulation study is not advised
 Simulation is not used if the system behavior is too complex or can not be
defined
 Simulation is not used when it is less expensive to conduct direct experiment31
SYSTEM MODELING
 A system is studied to understand the relationships between its
components or to predict how the system will operate under a
new policy.
 To study the system, it is sometimes possible to experiment with
the system itself. However, this is not always an option. A new
system might not yet exist; even if the system exists, it might be
impractical to experiment with it.
 For example, in case of a bank, reducing the number of tellers
to study the effect on the length of waiting lines might
infuriate(anger) the customers so greatly that they will move
their accounts to a competitor.
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WHAT IS A MODEL?
 System studies are generally conducted with a model of the
system.
 A model is a representation of an object, a system, or an
idea in some form other than that of the entity itself.
 It is a body of information about a system gathered for the
purpose of studying the system.

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MODEL AS A SIMPLIFICATION
OF A SYSTEM
 For the purpose of most studies, it is not necessary to consider all the
details of a system; so a model is not only a substitute for a system, it is
also a simplification of the system.
 On the other hand, the model should be sufficiently detailed to permit
valid conclusions to be drawn about the system.
 Since the purpose of the study determines the nature of the information
that is gathered, there is no unique model of a system.
 Different models of the same system may be produced by different
analysts interested in different aspects of the system or by the same
analyst as his understanding of the system changes.

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DERIVING A MODEL
 The task of deriving a model of a system may be divided
broadly into two subtasks:
 establishing the model structure
 supplying the data
 Establishing the structure determines the system boundary
and identifies the entities, attributes and activities of the
system.
 The data provide the values the attributes can have and
define the relationships involved in the activities.

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TYPES OF MODELS
 Models used in system studies have been classified in many ways
 The classification that will be used here is given in figure below:

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PHYSICAL MODEL
 A physical model is a larger or smaller version of an object such as the
enlargement of an atom or a scaled-down version of the solar system.
 They are iconic models. They allow visualization of information about the
thing the model represents.
 In a physical model of a system, the system attributes are represented by
such measurements as a voltage or the position of a shaft.
 The system activities are reflected in the physical laws that drive the model.
 For example: Bohr Model of atom, double helix model of DNA
 They may be static physical or dynamic physical models.

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MATHEMATICAL MODEL
 Mathematical models use symbolic notation and mathematical equation to
represent a system.
 The system attributes are represented by variables and the activities are
represented by mathematical functions that interrelate the variables.
 These models are used in the natural sciences and engineering disciplines
 For example: statistical linear and non-linear equations, differential
equations,
 Mathematical model can be static mathematical or dynamic
mathematical model.
 Another type of mathematical model can be analytical mathematical or
numerical mathematical model.
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ANALYTICAL MATHEMATICAL
MODEL
 Analytical model uses techniques using the deductive reasoning of
mathematical theory to solve a model.
 The results that they produce consist of equations.
 For example, the ideal gas law: ,
can be derived using the kinetic theory of gases, which is an analytical model.
The equation given above can be called a result of the model.
 From the derived formula or equation the pressure can be computed given the
density and temperature of air, and the gas constant.

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NUMERICAL MATHEMATICAL
MODEL
 Numerical model involves techniques of applying computational procedure to
solve equations.
 These techniques uses different approaches of approximations such as finite-
difference methods or grid-point methods.
 It starts with some simple approximations and then repeat the process as much as
needed to reach the desired accuracy.
 For example: Newton’s law of cooling can be stated as:
, where Ts is the temperature of surroundings, T(t) is the temperature of
liquid at time t and k is the constant of proportionality.
 This can be solved by numerical method.
 System simulation is considered to be a numerical technique used in conjunction
with dynamic models. 40
MODEL CLASSIFICATION...

 Simulation models can be classified as:

 Static or dynamic
 Deterministic or stochastic
 Discrete or continuous.

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STATIC MODEL
 A static simulation model represents a system, which
does not change with time or represents the system
at a particular point in time.
 Static model is time independent view of system
 Static models can only show the values that system
attributes take when the system is in balance.
 For example: Class has same number of students in
a year

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DYNAMIC MODEL
 Dynamic models follow the changes over time that result from
the system activities.
 Dynamic simulation models is time dependent view of the
system.
 For example, the simulation of bank from 9:00 am to 4:00 pm is
an example a dynamic simulation model.
 There is a use of differential equations in dynamic model.
 Dynamic models keep changing with reference to time whereas
static models are at equilibrium in a steady state.
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STATIC VS DYNAMIC MODEL
 The most notable difference between static and dynamic models of a
system is that while a dynamic model refers to runtime model of the
system, static model is the model of the system not during runtime.
 Static model is more structural than behavioral while dynamic model is
a representation of the behavior of the static components of the system.
 Static modeling is more rigid than dynamic modeling as it is a time
independent view of a system.
 Static model cannot be changed in real time and this is why it is
referred to as static modeling.
 Dynamic modeling is flexible as it can change with time as it shows
what an object does with many possibilities that might arise in time.

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DETERMINISTIC VS
STOCHASTIC MODEL
 Deterministic models have a known set of inputs, which result
into unique set of outputs.
 For example: deterministic arrivals would occur at a doctor’s
office if all patients arrived at their scheduled appointment
times.
 In stochastic model, there are one or more random input
variables, which lead to random outputs.
 For example: the simulation of a bank would usually involve
random inter-arrival times and random service times.

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DISCRETE VS CONTINUOUS
MODEL
 Model in which the state of the system changes continuously
with time are called continuous Model.
 The models in which the state changes abruptly (unexpectedly)
at discrete points in time called discrete models.
 For example: a communication channel could be modelled
continuously if the characteristics and movement of each
message were deemed important.
 If the flow of messages in aggregate over the channel were of
importance, modeling can be discrete.

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STATIC PHYSICAL MODEL
 Static physical model is a scaled down/up model of a system which
does not change with time.
 Static physical models are iconic models. Example: Scale models.
 They are used in ship buildings, deciphering of DNA molecules, Wind
Tunnels and Water Tanks in the course of designing air craft or ship.
 Scientists have used models in which spheres represent atoms, and rods
or specially shaped sheets of metal connect the spheres to represent
atomic bonds.

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 STATIC PHYSICAL MODEL
 An architect before constructing a building makes a scaled down
model of the building, which reflects all it rooms, outer design and
other important features. This is an example of static physical
model.
 Similarly for conducting trials in water, we make small water tanks,
which are replica of sea, and fire small scaled down shells in them.
This tank can be treated as a static physical model of ocean.
 In shipbuilding, making a scale model provides a simple way of
determining the exact measurements of the plates covering the hull,
rather than having to produce drawings of complicated, three-
dimensional shapes.

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 STATIC PHYSICAL MODEL
 Scale models are also used in wind tunnels in the course of
designing aircrafts. Although air is blown over the model, or
the model is pulled through the water, these are static
physical models because the measurements that are taken
represent attributes of the system being studied under one
set, equilibrium conditions.

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DYNAMIC PHYSICAL MODEL
 Dynamic physical models are ones which change with time or
which are function of time.
 In wind tunnel, small aircraft models (static models) are kept
and air is blown over them with different velocities and
pressure profiles are measured with the help of transducers
embedded in the model. Here wind velocity changes with
time and is an example of dynamic physical model.

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 Stiffness is the extent to which an object resists deformation in response to an applied force

DYNAMIC PHYSICAL MODEL

 Let us take an example of hanging wheel of a stationary truck and analyze
its motion under various forces. Consider a wheel of mass M, suspended in
vertical direction, a force F(t), which varies with time, is acting on it. Mass
is connected with a spring of stiffness K, and a piston with damping factor
D. When force F (t), is applied, mass M oscillates under the action of these
three forces.

Fig. Wheel Suspension

System

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 DYNAMIC PHYSICAL MODEL
 Dynamic physical models rely upon an analogy between the system
being studied and some other system of a different nature, the analogy
usually depending upon an underlying similarity in the forces
governing the behavior of the systems.
 To illustrate this type of physical model, consider the two systems
shown in following figures

Damping is an influence within or upon an oscillatory system that has the effect of reducing or preventing
its oscillation. In physical systems, damping is produced by processes that
dissipate the energy stored in the oscillation

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DYNAMIC PHYSICAL MODEL
(a) Mechanical System (b) Electrical System

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DYNAMIC PHYSICAL MODEL
 The Figure a. represents a mass M that is subjected to an applied force F(t)
varying with time t, a spring whose force is proportional to its extension or
contraction, and a shock absorber that exerts a damping force proportional to the
velocity of the mass.
 The system might for example represent the suspension of an automobile wheel
when the automobile body is assumed to be immobile in a vertical direction.
 It can be shown that the motion of the system is described by the following
differential equation.

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DYNAMIC PHYSICAL MODEL

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Inductance is the tendency of an electrical conductor to oppose a change in the electric current flowing through it.
Resistance is a measure of the opposition to current flow in an electrical circuit
Electric current is defined as the rate at which charge flows through a surface

DYNAMIC PHYSICAL MODEL

 The figure b represents an electrical circuit with a resistance “R” and inductance
“L” and capacitance “C” connected in series with a voltage source that varies in
time according to the function E (t).
 Let “q” be the charge on the capacitance. This system can be represented by the
following equation-

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Electric charge is the basic physical property of matter that causes it to experience a force when kept in an
electric or magnetic field
Capacitance is the measure of an object's ability to store electric charge.
DYNAMIC PHYSICAL MODEL
 Inspection of these two equations shows that they have exactly the same
form.
 By comparing two equation of mechanical system and electrical system
which are similar to each other given below.

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DYNAMIC PHYSICAL MODEL
 Both the systems are analogues of each other and the performance of
either can be studied with the other.
 In practice, it is simpler to modify the electrical system than to change the
mechanical system.
 So, it is more likely that the electrical system will have been built to study
the mechanical system.

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DYNAMIC PHYSICAL MODEL
 To predict what effect a change in the shock absorber or spring
will have on the performance of the car, it is only necessary to
change the values of the resistance or condenser in the
electrical circuit and observe the effect on the way the voltage
varies.
 If in fact, the mechanical system were as simple as illustrated,
it could be studied by solving the mathematical equation
derived in establishing the analogy.

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STATIC MATHEMATICAL
MODEL
 A static model gives the relationship between the system attributes
when the system is in equilibrium.
 If the point of equilibrium is changed by altering any of the attribute
values, the model enables the new values for all the attributes to be
derived but does not show the way in which they changed to their
new values.
 Example: A simple Market Model
 In marketing a product, there is a balance between the supply and
demand for the product.

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 EXAMPLE: A SIMPLE MARKET
MODEL
 Both factor depend upon price. The demand for a commodity(product)
will be low when the price is high and it will increase as the price drops.
On the other hand, the supply can be expected to increase as the price
increase, because suppliers see an opportunity for more revenue(income).
 The following figure a simple market model will show what is the price at
which the balance occurs.
 The relationship between demand ‘Q’ and price ‘P’, might be represented
by the straight line marked demand and the relationship between supply
‘S’ and price ‘P’ is represented by straight line marked Supply.
 If conditions remain stable, the price will settle to the point at which the
two lines cross, because that is where the supply equals the demand.

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A SIMPLE MARKET MODEL

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A SIMPLE MARKET MODEL
 Since the relationships have been assumed linear, the complete market model
can be written mathematically as follows:

 The last equation states the condition for the market to be cleared; it
says supply equals demand and, so, determines the price to which
the market will settle.
 For the model to correspond to normal market conditions in which
demand goes down and supply increases as price goes up the
coefficients b and d need to be positive numbers.
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A SIMPLE MARKET MODEL
 The fact that linear relationships have been assumed allows the model to be
solved analytically.
 The equilibrium market price, in fact, is given by the following expression:

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DYNAMIC MATHEMATICAL
MODEL
 A dynamic mathematical model allows the changes of system
attributes to be derived as a function of time.
 This derivation may be made with analytical solution or with a
numerical computation depending upon the complexity of the
model.
 The equation that was derived to describe the behavior of a car
wheel is an example of a dynamic mathematical model(see
equation below); in this case, an equation that can be solved
analytically.

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66
Figure: Solution of second order equations 67
68
DISTRIBUTED LAG MODEL
 Models that have the properties of changing only at fixed interval of
time, and of basing on current values and values that occurred in
previous intervals, are called distributed lag models.
 It is used to predict current values of a dependent variable based on both
the current values of an explanatory variable (independent variable) and
the lagged (past period) values of this explanatory variable.
 In economic studies some economic data are collected over uniform time
interval such as a month or year.
 This model consists of linear algebraic equations that represent
continuous system but data are available at fixed points in time

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 DISTRIBUTED LAG MODEL -
EXAMPLE
 Consider the following mathematical model of national
Let
economy
Then
C = consumption C = 20 + 0.7 ( Y – T )
I = 2 + 0.1 Y
I = investment
T = 0.2 Y
T = Taxes Y=C+I+G
G = government expenditures • All the equation are expressed in billions of
rupees. This is static model and can be made
Y = national income
dynamic by lagging all the variables as
follows:

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DISTRIBUTED LAG MODEL
Then
C = 20 + 0.7 ( Y-1 – T-1 )
I = 2 + 0.1 Y-1
T = 0.2 Y-1
Y = C-1 + I-1 + G-1
• Any variable that can be expressed in the form of its current
value and one or more previous value is called lagging variable.
• And hence this model is given the name distributed lag
model. 71
DISTRIBUTED LAG MODEL
 The variable in a previous interval is denoted by attaching – n suffix to
the variable. Where – n indicate the nth interval.
 Given an initial set of values for all variables, the values of the variables
at the end of one year can be derived.
 Taking these values as new values of the lagged variables, the values can
then be derived at the end of the second year, and so on.
 It is not necessary to lag all the variables as in above example.

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DISTRIBUTED LAG MODEL
Advantages of distributed lag model
 Simple to understand and can be computed by hand , computers are
extensively used to run them.
 There is no need for special programming language to organize
simulation task.

73
STEPS IN SIMULATION STUDY
 The steps in a simulation study are as follows:
1. Problem Formulation
2. Setting of objectives and overall project plan
3. Model Conceptualization
4. Data Collection
5. Model Translation
6. Verification
7. Validation
8. Experimental Design
9. Production runs and analysis
10. More runs
11. Documentation and reporting
12. Implementation

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Steps in Simulation Study

75
STEPS IN SIMULATION STUDY
1. Problem Formulation
 Every study begins with a statement of the problem, provided by
policy makers or those that have the problems.
 Analyst ensures it is clearly understood.
 If it is developed by analyst and policy makers should understand and
agree with it.

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STEPS IN SIMULATION STUDY
2. Setting Objectives and Overall Project Plan
 The objectives indicate the questions to be answered by simulation.
 At this point, a determination should be made concerning whether
simulation is the appropriate methodology. Assuming it is appropriate,
the overall project plan should include:
• A statement of the alternative systems
• A method for evaluating the effectiveness of these alternatives
• Plans for the study in terms of the number of people involved
• Cost of the study
• The number of days required to accomplish each phase of the work
with the anticipated results.
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STEPS IN SIMULATION STUDY
3. Model conceptualization
 The construction of a model of a system is probably as much art as
science.
 The art of modeling is enhanced by ability:
• To abstract the essential features of a problem.
• To select and modify basic assumptions that characterizes the system.
• To enrich and elaborate the model until a useful approximation results.
 Thus, it is best to start with a simple model and build toward greater
complexity.
 Model conceptualization enhances the quality of the resulting model and
increases the confidence of the model user in the application of the model.
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STEPS IN SIMULATION STUDY
4. Data collection
 There is a constant interplay between the construction of model
and the collection of needed input data.
 It is done in the early stages.
 Objective of the study dictates, the kinds of data to be
collected.

79
STEPS IN SIMULATION STUDY
5. Model translation
 Real-world systems result in models that require a great deal of information
storage and computation.
 It can be programmed by using simulation languages like GPSS, SIMSCRIPT
or special purpose simulation software Arena, AutoMod, AnyLogic etc.
 Simulation languages are powerful and flexible.
 With simulation software, model development time can be reduced.

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STEPS IN SIMULATION STUDY
6. Verified?
 It involves to the computer program and checking the performance.
 If the input parameters and logical structure are correctly represented in
computer program, verification is completed.
 Verification ensures that system specification given by system analyst
has been included in the simulation.

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STEPS IN SIMULATION STUDY
7. Validated?
 It is the determination that a model is an accurate representation
of the real system.
 It is achieved through calibration of the model.
 The calibration of model is an iterative process of comparing
the model to actual system behavior and the differences
between the two.

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STEPS IN SIMULATION STUDY
8. Experimental Design
 The alternatives that are to be simulated must be determined.
 Which alternatives to simulate may be a function of runs?
 For each system design, decisions need to be made concerning
· Length of the initialization period
· Length of simulation runs
· Number of replication to be made of each run

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STEPS IN SIMULATION STUDY
9. Production runs and analysis
 This involves different runs of the simulation model to generate
output data and output analysis by using different statistical
methods.
 They are used to estimate measures of performance for the system
designs that are being simulated.

84
STEPS IN SIMULATION STUDY
10. More Runs?
 Based on the analysis of runs that have been completed, the
analyst determines if additional runs are needed and what
design those additional experiments should follow.

85
 STEPS IN SIMULATION STUDY
11. Documentation and reporting
There are two types of documentation: Program documentation and Process documentation
 Program documentation
 it can be used again by the same or different analysts to understand how the program
operates.
 Further modification will be easier. Model users can change the input parameters for
better performance.
 Process documentation
 It gives the history of a simulation project.
 The result of all analysis should be reported clearly and concisely in a final report.
 This enables to review the final formulation and alternatives, results of the
experiments and the recommended solution to the problem.

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STEPS IN SIMULATION STUDY
12. Implementation
 Success depends on the previous steps.
 If the model user has been thoroughly involved and
understands the nature of the model and its outputs, possibility
of a vigorous(strong) implementation is enhanced.
 Conversely, if the model and its underlying assumptions have
not been properly communicated, implementation will probably
suffer, regardless of the simulation model’s validity.
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 APPLICATION AREAS OF
SIMULATION
 Manufacturing Applications
Design analysis and optimization of production system, materials
management, capacity planning, layout planning, and
performance evaluation, evaluation of process quality.
 Business:
Market analysis, prediction of consumer behavior, and
optimization of marketing strategy and logistics, comparative
evaluation of marketing campaigns.

88
APPLICATION AREAS OF
SIMULATION
 Military
Testing of alternative combat strategies, air operations, sea
operations, simulated war exercises, inventory management.
 Healthcare
such as planning of health services, expected patient density,
facilities requirement, hospital staffing , estimating the
effectiveness of a health care program.

89
APPLICATION AREAS OF
SIMULATION
 Communication Applications:
Such as network design, and optimization, evaluating network
reliability, manpower planning

 Computer Applications:
Such as designing hardware configurations and operating system
protocols, sharing networking. Client/Server system architecture

90
APPLICATION AREAS OF
SIMULATION
 Economic applications:
such as portfolio management, forecasting impact of Govt.
Policies and market on the international fluctuations
economy. Budgeting and forecasting market fluctuations.

 Transportation applications:
Design and testing of alternative transportation policies,
transportation networks-roads, railways, airways etc.
Evaluation of timetables, traffic planning.
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APPLICATION AREAS OF
SIMULATION
 Environment application:
Solid waste management, performance evaluation of
environmental programs, evaluation of pollution control
systems.

 Biological applications;
Such as population genetics and spread of epidemics.

92
HYBRID SIMULATION
 For most studies, the system under study is clearly either of continuous or
discrete nature and it is the determining factor in deciding whether to use
an analog or digital computer for system simulation.
 If the system being simulated is an interconnection of continuous and
discrete subsystem, then such system simulation is known as hybrid
simulation.
 The term hybrid simulation is generally reserved for the case in which
functionally distinct analog and digital computers are linked together
for the purpose of simulation.
 Hybrid simulation required high speed converters to transform signals
from analog to digital from and vice –versa.
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 REAL TIME SIMULATION
 Real time simulation refers to computer model of a physical system that
can execute at the same rate as actual physical system.
 For example: if a tank takes 10 minutes to fill in the real-world, the
simulation would take 10 minutes as well.
 Real time simulations occur commonly in computer gaming, but also
is important in the industrial market for operator training and offline
controller tuning.

94
REAL TIME SIMULATION
 A well-known examples is “simulation to train pilots”. It uses
the devices for training pilots by giving them the impression
that is at the control of an aircraft. It requires real time
simulator of the plane its control system, the weather and other
environmental conditions.
 Real time simulation provides the simulation of the points of
systems that do not exist or that cannot be easily used in an
experiment

95
TU QUESTIONS
1. Explain about system, its environment and its components -5
2. Explain the analogy between Mechanical System and electrical system using
Dynamic Physical Model. Explain Dynamic mathematical model and static
mathematical model-10
3. Describe different types of mathematical models. Develop a mathematical model
(differential equation) for any dynamic system. -10
4. Define and describe different types of elements and components of a system -5
5. What do you understand by static mathematical model? Explain with example.
Differentiate between stochastic and deterministic activities. -10
6. Discuss the merits and demerits of system simulation
96
TU QUESTIONS
1. Different between static physical and Dynamic physical models. -5
2. Describe between phases of simulation study with the help of flow charts.v-5
3. List out the entities, attributes, activities and events for Banking, communication,
production and supermarket systems. -5
4. Differentiate between numerical and analytical methods in system simulation. -5
5. Describe the phases of simulation study with the help of flow chart -5
6. Differentiate between static and dynamic physical models in simulation. Describe
dynamic physical model in details with the help of suitable example.- 10
7. Define model. Describe different types of simulation models in brief -5

97
TU QUESTIONS
1. Define activity, event, and state variables. List out the activities and events for the
following systems. -5
a. Super Market
b. Inventory Control
c. Hospital
1. Describe basic nature of simulation in brief - 5
2. Identify with reasons, four different problems from your own experience that you
think should be solved using digital simulation rather than analytically-5
3. Explain the steps in simulation study. What are the limitation of simulations -5
4. What are the types of simulation models -10
98