FHMM 1324

Mathematics For Business II

TOPIC 2
1
Probability
2 Subtopics
 Permutations & Combinations
 Basic Concepts
 Statistical Experiment
 Sample Space
 Event (Simple Event & Compound Event)
 Probability
 Properties of Probability
 Additive Rule
 Multiplicative Rule
 Conditional Probability
3 Counting Principles
Given two mutually exclusive events A and B, i.e.
events A and B will not occur together or happen at the
same time.
Principle 1 : If events A and B can occur respectively in
m and n ways, then A and B can occur
together in m × n ways.
Principle 2 : If events A and B can occur respectively in
m and n ways, then A or B (but not both)
can occur in m + n ways.
4 Example 2.1
How many lunches consisting of a soup, sandwich,
dessert and a drink are possible if we can select from 4
soups, 3 kinds of sandwiches, 5 desserts and 4 drinks?

Number of possible lunches

= (4)(3)(5)(4) = 240

Ans: 240
 m
5 Example 2.2 m

a) Toss three coins. The total number of possible

outcomes is:
22  22  22 == 88

b) Toss two dice. The total number of possible outcomes

is:
66  66 == 36
36

c) Two M&Ms are drawn from a dish containing four

red and three blue candies. The total number of
possible outcomes is:
22  22 == 44
Ans: (a) 8 (b) 36 (c) 4
6 Example 2.3
A bag contains nine discs, numbered from 1 to 9. A
disc is drawn from the bag.
If the number is even, then a coin is tossed. If the
number is odd, then a die is thrown.
How many outcomes are possible?

Ans: 38
7 Example 2.3
First experiment Second experiment

 even   toss a    odd   throw a  

  and    or   and  
 number   coin   number   dice 
  
 4  2  5  6
 8  30
 38

Ans: 38
8 Factorials
 The symbol ! is used to denote factorials.
 Definition:
The symbol n! , read as “n factorial,” represents the
product of all consecutive positive integers from n to 1.
n ! n (n  1)( n  2)( n  3)  3  2 1
 By definition,
0! = 1
Find 5! by using calculator

5!  120
10 Example 2.4

Evaluate

a) 7! = 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 5040

b) (12 – 4)! = 8! = 40320

c) (5 – 5)! = 0! = 1

Ans: (a) 5040 (b) 40320 (c) 1

11 Permutation
 A permutation of a set of distinct objects is an
arrangement of the objects in a specific order without
repetition.

 The number of permutations of n distinct objects is

n
Pn  n !
 Permutation is also called arrangement.
12 Example 2.5
How many different arrangements are possible by
arranging all three letters A, B and C ?

Number of arrangements
= 3P3 = 3!
=6

They are: ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB, CBA

Ans: 6
13 Permutation
 The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r
at a time is n!
n
Pr 
(n  r )!
14 Example 2.6
A shop has 5 different printers but there is space for
only 3 printers on the display shelf. How many
arrangements are possible?
The order of arrangement is
important!
5
P3  60

Ans: 60
15 Example 2.7
The letters from the word MATRIX are to be arranged to
form a code word.
a) How many different code words are possible?
 P6  6!
Number of possible code words 6

 720
b) How many of code words begin with M and end with
X?  P4  4!
4

Number of possible code words

 24
Ans: (a) 720 (b) 24
16 Example 2.8
How many three-digit numbers can be made from the
integers 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 if
a) each integer is used only once,
5
P3  60

b) there is no restriction on the number of times each

integer can be used?
53  125
Ans: (a) 60 (b) 125
17 Example 2.9
Suppose you have 4 different flags. How many different
signals could you make using 2 or 3 flags?

2 flags or 3flags
4
P2  4
P3  12  24  36

Ans: 36
18 Example 2.10
How many arrangements of the letters of the word
B E G I N are there if
a) all letters are used,
5
P5  5!  120

b) 3 letters are used?

5
P3  60

Ans: (a) 120 (b) 60

19 Example 2.11
How many ways can the letters from the word
‘MONDAY’ be arranged if
(a) there is no restriction, 6! = 720
(b) the vowels must be side-by-side, 5! × 2! = 240
(c) the vowels must be separated, 4!  P2  480
5

(d) the 2 vowels must be at the 2 ends? 2 × 4! = 48

Ans: (a) 720 (b) 240 (c) 480 (d) 48

20 Example 2.12
5 boys and 2 girls are to be seated in a row for
photograph taking. How many arrangements are there if
(a) no condition is imposed, 7!  5040
(b) the 2 girls must be side-by-side, 6!  2!  1440
(c) the 2 girls must be separated, 5!  6 P2  3600
(d) the 2 girls must be at the 2 ends? 2  5!  240

Ans: (a) 5040 (b) 1440 (c) 3600 (d) 240

21 Permutation of similar objects
The number of permutations of n items, taken n
items at a time, where n1 are alike of the first
kind, n2 are alike of the second kind, n3 are alike
of a third kind, and so on is

n!
n1 !n2 !...
22 Example 2.13
Find the number of permutations of the letters
D E FEAT E D

There are three E’s and two D’s.

The number of permutations of D E F E A T E D is 8!
EEE are 3 similar letters and can be arranged in 3! ways but
all the arrangements are the same. DD are 2 similar letters and
can be arranged in 2! ways but all the arrangements are the
8!
same. So the number of permutations of D E F E A T E D is
 3360
3! 2 !
Ans: 3360
23 Example 2.14
How many ways can the letters from the word
‘RESPONSES’ be arranged if
(a) there is no restriction, 9!
 30240
3! 2!

(b) the vowels must be side-by-side, 3! 7!

 2520
3! 2!

(c) all vowels must be separated.

7
P3  6!
 12600
3! 2!

Ans: (a) 30240 (b) 2520 (c) 12600

24 Combination
A combination is the selection of n distinct objects
taken r at a time without regard to the order of
selection.
The number of combinations of n distinct objects
taken r at a time is
n denotes the total number of distinct objects
n P n
n!
n
Cr      r

 r  r ! r !(n  r )!
r denotes the number of objects selected per selection
25 Example 2.15
An ice cream parlor has 4 flavours of ice cream (vanilla,
strawberry, chocolate and durian). Kristen wants to buy
2 flavours of ice cream. If she randomly select two
flavours out of four, how many possible combinations
are there?
Order is not important.
4
C 2  6

Possible combinations:
Vanilla & strawberry, vanilla & chocolate, vanilla & durian, strawberry
& chocolate, strawberry & durian, chocolate & durian
Ans: 6
26 Example 2.16
An assignment group comprises of 4 members is to be
formed from 6 females and 4 males. Find the number of
combinations if
(a) there is no restriction,
10
C4  210
(b) exactly 2 females and 2 males in the group.
C2  4C2  90
6

Ans: (a) 210 (b) 90

27 Example 2.17
A school committee consists of 6 girls and 4 boys. A
social sub-committee consisting of four students is to be
formed. In how many ways could the group be chosen if

a) there are no restriction? 10

C4  210

b) there are to be more girls than boys in the group?

3g 1b + 4g 0b
 C  C  C
6
3
4
1
6
4  4
C0   (20  4)  15  95 ways

Ans: (a) 210 (b) 95

28 Probability: Basic Concepts
 An experiment is any process which generates a well
defined outcome that cannot be predicted in advance,
but where all possible outcomes are known.
 An outcome is the particular result of an experiment.
 The sample space, S of an experiment is a collection
all possible outcomes of an experiment.
 The elements of a sample space are called sample
points.
29 Example 2.18
Experiment Outcomes Sample space

Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Toss a coin Head, Tail S = {Head, Tail}

Inspect an item off Defective, non- S = {Defective, non-

an assembly time defective defective}

Attempt an
Pass, fail S = {Pass, fail}
examination
30 Venn diagram & Tree diagram
o A Venn diagram is a picture that depicts all the
possible outcomes for an experiment.

o A tree diagram is a picture that represents each

outcome by a branch of the tree.
- the probability of each branch is written on the
branch;
- the outcome is written at the end of the branch.
31 Example 2.19
One toss of a die.
Tree diagram Venn
diagramOutcomes
1 11 •1 S
6 •2 •3
1
6 22
1
6 •4 •5 •6
1 33
6
1
6
44
S ={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
1
6 55

66
32 Example 2.20
Experiment : Toss a coin twice
Let H be head and T be tail
Tree diagram Venn diagram
1st toss 2nd toss Outcomes
S
0.5 HH HH
HH HT
HT
H
H HH
0.5 H
H
0.5 TT HT
HT
TH
TH TT
TT
0.5 H
H TH
TH
0.5
TT
0.5 TT TT
TT
S = { HH, HT, TH, TT }
33 Simple and Compound Events
 An event is a collection of one or more outcomes of
an experiment.
 An event that includes one and only one of the
possible outcomes for an experiment is called a simple
event.
 A simple event is denoted by Ei.
 A compound event is a collection of more than one
outcomes for an experiment.
34 Example 2.21
Experiment : Roll a die and observe the number that
appears on the upper
face
Event A : Observe
A = { 1 ,an
3 ,odd
5 } number
Compound event

Event B : Observe
B = { 2 ,an
4 ,even
6 } number
Compound event

Sample space : SS == {{ Event

1 , 2 , 3A, ,4Event
, 5 , 6 }B }
 Example 2.22
35
In a group of people, some are in favor of genetic engineering
and others are against it. Two persons are selected at random
from this group and asked whether they are in favor of or
against genetic engineering.
a) Draw a tree diagram and a Venn diagram for this
experiment.
b) List all the possible distinct outcomes.
c) List the possible distinct outcomes if
i. both persons are in favor of genetic engineering,
ii. at most one person is against genetic engineering,
iii. exactly one person is in favor of genetic engineering.
 Example 2.22 (Solution)
36
Let Event F = A person is in favor of genetic engineering
Event A = A person is against genetic engineering
a) Tree diagram Venn diagram
1st person 2nd person
FF AF S
F
F
A FA AA
A F
A
b) S ={FF, FA, AF, AA}
c) (i) {FF}
(ii) {FF, FA, AF}
(iii) {FA, AF}
37 Probability
 A probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood
that an event in the future will happen.
P(Ei) = Probability that a simple event Ei will occur.
P(A) = Probability that a compound event A will occur.
38 Two properties of probability
1. The probability of an event always lies in the range 0
to 1.
0 ≤ P(Ei) ≤ 1
0  P( A)  1

2. The sum of the probabilities of all simple events for

an experiment is always 1.

ΣP(Ei) = P(E1) + P(E2) + P(E3) + … = 1

39 Two Conceptual Approaches to Probability

There are two conceptual approaches to probability:

(i) Classical probability (all outcomes are equally likely)

(ii) Relative frequency approximation

40 Classical Probability
 The classical probability rule is applied to compute the
probabilities of events for an experiment in which all
outcomes are equally likely (i.e. each outcome in the
sample space has the same probability of occurrence).
 If an experiment can result in N different equal likely
outcomes, and if exactly k of these outcomes correspond to
event A, then the probability of an event A is:
nn((AA)) kk
PP((AA))  
nn((SS)) N N

 You can use counting principle 1 to find N.

41 Relative Frequency Approximation
 When the outcomes of an experiment are not equally
likely, relative frequencies are used.
 To calculate such probabilities, experiments are
performed again and again to generate data to obtain
the relative frequency.
 If an experiment is repeated n times and a random
event A is observed f times, then the probability of
event A can be calculated as:
ff
A)) 
PP((A
nn
42 Example 2.23
A die is tossed. Sample space, S = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
The outcomes are equal likely.
Two events are given where A = 1, 2, 3, 4 and
B = 5, 6.
Find the probability of event A and event B.
n( A) 4 2 n( B ) 2 1
P ( A)    P( B)   
n( S ) 6 3 n( S ) 6 3

Ans: ,
43 Example 2.24
A die is tossed twice. What is the probability of getting
both odd numbers?
Let Event E = getting both odd numbers n(E) = 9
n(S) = 36
(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6) n( E )
(2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6) P( E ) 
(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
n( S )
(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6) 9 1
 
(5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6) 36 4
(6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)
Ans:
 Example 2.25
44
Ten of the 500 randomly selected cars manufactured at
an auto factory are found to be defective.
Assuming that the defective cars are manufactured
randomly, what is the probability that the next car
manufactured at this auto factory is a defective?

Ans:
45 Example 2.25 (Solution)
Since the defects occur randomly, the probability that the
next car manufactured is defective can be evaluated by
using relative frequency concept :

f 10 1
P (defective)     0.02
n 500 50
 Example 2.26
46
A glass jar contains 6 red, 5 green, 8 blue and 3 yellow
marbles. If a single marble is chosen at random from the
jar, what is the probability of choosing a red marble? a
green marble? a blue marble? a yellow marble?

6 3 8 4

P(red) 22 = P(blue) =
11 22 11

5 3
P(green)
22
= 22
P(yellow) =

Ans: , , ,
 Example 2.27
47
Among 100 students, 20 are studying mathematics, 15 are
studying chemistry and 8 are studying both mathematics
and chemistry. Find the probability that a randomly selected
student
a) studying mathematics,
b) only studying mathematics,
c) studying chemistry,
d) only studying chemistry,
e) studies both mathematics and chemistry

Ans: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e)

48 Example 2.27 (Solution)
Let Event M = the selected student is studying mathematics.
Event C = the selected student is studying chemistry.
20 1
a) P( M )  
100 5 S
12 3 C M
P ( M only )  
b) 100 25
7 8 12
15 3
P (C )   73
c) 100 20
7
P (C only ) 
100
d)
8 2
P( M  C )  
100 25
49 Intersection of two events
 The intersection of two events, A and B, is the event
that both A and B occur when the experiment is
performed. We write A  B
S

A B A B

n( A  B ) P( A  B )  P ( B  A)
P( A  B) 
n( S )
50 Example 2.28
Given sample space, S = 2, 3, 5, 6, 9.
Two events are given where A = 2, 3, 5 and B = 3, 9.
Find the probability of intersection of event A and event B.
A  B = 3}
n(A  B) = 1 , n(S) = 5
n( A  B ) 1
P( A  B)  
n( S ) 5

Ans:
51 Union of two events
 The union of two events, A and B, is the event that
either A or B or both occur when the experiment is
performed. We write A  B
S

A B A B

n( A  B )
P( A  B)  P ( A  B )  P ( B  A)
n( S )
52 Example 2.29
Given sample space, S = 2, 3, 5, 6, 9.
Two events are given where A = 2, 3, 5 and B = 3, 9.
Find the probability of union of event A and event B.
A  B = 2, 3, 5, 9}
n(A  B) = 4 , n(S) = 5
n( A  B ) 4
P( A  B)  
n( S ) 5

Ans:
53 Complementary Events
 The complement of event A consists of all outcomes of an
experiment that are not in event A.
 We write A or A and read as “A bar” or “A complement”.
 A' is the event that event A does not occur.
 Two complementary events, taken together, includes all the
outcomes for an experiment. The sum of the probabilities of
all outcomes is 1. S
A' A

Complement rule: P(A' ) + P(A) = 1

54 Example 2.30
Given sample space, S = 2, 3, 6, 9, 10 and
event A = 2, 3, 6.
Find P( A ).

A = {9, 10} or 3
P( A) 
n(S) = 5 and n( A ) = 2 5
n( A ) 2 P ( A)  1  P ( A)
P( A )  
n( S ) 5
3 2
 1  Ans:
5 5
 Example 2.31
55
In a group of 500 adults, 350 are in favor of stricter gun
control laws, 120 are against such laws, and 30 have no
opinion. One adult is randomly selected from this group.
Let A be the event that this adult is in favor of stricter
gun control laws.
a) What is the complementary event of A?
b) What are the probabilities of the two events?
56 Example 2.31 (Solution)
a) Event A = The selected adult either is against such
laws or has no opinion.
b)
n( A) 350
n(S) = 500, n(A) = 350, P ( A)    0 .7
n( S ) 500
n( A) 150
n(A) = 120 + 30 = 150, P ( A)    0.3
n( S ) 500
A S
A
Note that P(A) + P(A) =1.
57 The Additive Rules for Unions (General)

The probability of the union of two events, A and B is

PP((AA
BB))  PP((AA)) PP((BB)) PP((AA
BB))

A B A B
 Example 2.32
58
In a class of 40 students, 5 out of the 15 girls and 7 out of the 25
boys are members of the Mathematics Society. A student is
selected randomly.
What is the probability that the student is either a girl or a
member of the Mathematics Society?
Event G = The selected student is a girl
Event M = The selected student is a member of Mathematics
Society.

Ans:
59 Example 2.32 (Solution)
Let Event G = the selected student is a girl.
Event M = the selected student is a member
of
15 12 Mathematics Society.
P (G )  , P( M ) 
40 40
5
P (G  M ) 
40
P (G  M )  P (G )  P ( M )  P (G  M )
15 12 5 11
   
40 40 40 20
60 Mutually Exclusive Events
 Events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at
the same time.
 Such events do not have any common outcomes.

A B  Venn diagram
S
 P ( A  B)  0 A B
61 Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events

The probability of the union of two mutually exclusive

events A and B is P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )

Because P A  B  0
 Example 2.33
62
Consider the following events for one roll of a die:
Event A = an even number is observed;
Event B = an odd number is observed;
Event C = a number less than 5 is observed.

a) Are events A and B mutually exclusive? What is the

probability P ( A  B ) ?

b) Are events A and C mutually exclusive? What is the

probability P( A  C ) ?

5
Ans: (a) mutually exclusive, 1 (b) not mutually exclusive, 6
63 Example 2.33 (Solution)
Sample space, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
A = {2, 4, 6}, B = {1, 3, 5}, C = {1, 2, 3, 4}
a)
A  B    P( A  B)  0
Events A and B are mutually exclusive.
3 3
P  A  B   P  A  P  B     1
6 6
2 1
A  C  {2, 4}  P( A  C )    0
b) D
6 3
Events A and C are not mutually exclusive.
3 4 1 5
P  A  C   P  A   P C   P  A  C     
6 6 3 6
64 Conditional Probability
 Conditional probability is the probability that an event
will occur given that another event has already
occurred.
 For events A and B in a sample space S, we define the
conditional probability of A given B by
P  A  B
P  A | B  if P  B   0
P B

 P(A | B) is read as “the probability of A given that B

has already occurred”.
65 Conditional Probability
If A and B are two events, then
P A  B
P A | B 
PB
P  B  A
and P  B | A 
P  A

In general, P  A | B   P  B | A
66 Multiplication Rule for Intersection of Events

The probability of the intersection of two events A and B is:

P  A  B  P B P  A | B

OR P  A  B   P  A  P  B | A

The probability of two or more events occurring is called

joint probability.
The typical expression for the joint probability of two
P  Ais  B .
events
 Example 2.34
67
In a college, 12% of the students are left-handed, 15% of
the students wear glasses and 3% are both left-handed and
wear glasses.
a) Given that a student wears glasses, find the probability
that the student is left-handed.
b) What is the probability that a randomly selected student
wears glasses given that the student is left-handed

Ans: (a) 0.2 (b) 0.25

68 Example 2.34 (Solution)
Let Event L = the student selected is left-handed.
Event G = the student selected wears glasses.
Given P(L) = 0.12, P(G) = 0.15, P(L  G) = 0.03

P ( L  G ) 0.03
a) P( L | G )    0.2
P (G ) 0.15
P (G  L) 0.03
b) P (G | L)    0.25
P ( L) 0.12
 Example 2.35
69
A card is chosen at random from a set of twenty-five cards
numbers from 1 to 25. What is the probability that the card
chosen is a multiple of 4, given that it is greater than 15?
Event A = Multiple of 4
Event B = Greater than 15

Ans:
70 Example 2.35 (Solution)
Event A = Multiple of 4
A = {4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24}
Event B = Greater than 15
B = {16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25}
A  B = {16, 20, 24}
P( A  B)
P( A | B) 
P( B)
3
25 3
 
10 10
25 Ans:
 Some Useful Probability Formulae

  B S
71

P A  B  P ( A)  P ( A  B ) A

P  B  A   P ( B )  P ( B  A)

P  A  B   1  P ( A  B) A B S

P  A  B   1  P ( A  B)
A B S A B S
 Example 2.36
72
The events A and B are such that P(A) = , P(B) = and
P(A  B) = . Find
a)
P( A  B)
b) P(A | B)
c) P(B | A)
d) P(A  B' )
e) P(A | B' )

Ans: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e)

73 Example 2.36 (Solution)
P(A) = 1/3, P(B) = ¼ and P(A  B) = ½
1 1 1 1
a) P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)    
3 4 2 12
b) P(A | B) c) P(B | A)
1 1
P( A  B) 12 1 P ( B  A) 12 1
     
P( B) 1 3 P ( A) 1 4
4 3
d) P(A  B' ) e) P(A | B' )
 P ( A)  P ( A  B )  1
P( A  B ) 4 1
1 1 1   
   P ( B) 1 1 3
3 12 4 4
 Example 2.37
74
D and E are two events such that P(D) = 0.3,
P(E) = 0.5 and P(D|E) = 0.25. Find
a) P(D  E)
b) P(D  E)
c) P  D | E 

Ans: (a) 0.125 (b) 0.675 (c) 0.35

75 Example 2.37 (Solution)
a) P(D  E) b) P(D  E)
 P( D | E )  P( E )  P( D)  P( E )  P( D  E )
 (0.25)(0.5)  0.125  0.3  0.5  0.125  0.675

c) P( D | E )  P( D  E )  P( D)  P( D  E )
P( E ) 1  P( E )
0.3  0.125
  0.35
1  0.5

Ans: (a) 0.125 (b) 0.675 (c) 0.35

76 Example 2.38
The following table shows the responses of 100
employees of a company whether they are in favor of or
against paying high salaries to CEOs of companies.

In Favor (I) Against (A) Total

Male (M) 15 45 60
Female (F) 4 36 40
Total 19 81 100
 In Favor (I) Against (A) Total
Male (M) 15 45 60
77
Female (F) 4 36 40
Total 19 81 100

Suppose one employee is selected at random, find the

probability that the employee selected is
a) a male,
b) in favor of paying high salaries to CEOs,
c) against of paying high salaries to CEOs given that
this employee is a female,
d) a male knowing that this employee is in favor of
paying high salaries to CEOs.

Ans: (a) 0.6 (b) 0.19 (c) 0.9 (d) 0.7895

78 Example 2.38 (Solution)
n( M ) 60
a) P (M )    0.6
n( S ) 100
n (I ) 19
b) P (I )    0.19
n ( S ) 100

c) P( A  F ) n( A  F ) 36
P (A | F)     0.9
P( F ) n( F ) 40
d) P ( M  I ) n ( M  I ) 15
P (M | I )     0.7895
P( I ) n (I ) 19
79 Example 2.39
The following table gives the classification of all
employees of a company by gender and qualification.

College Not a college

graduate graduate Total
(G) (N)
Male (M) 7 20 27
Female (F) 4 9 13
Total 11 29 40
 College graduate (G) Not a college graduate(N) Total
80 Male (M) 7 20 27
Female (F) 4 9 13
Total 11 29 40

One of these employees is selected at random to be a

member of the employee-management committee. Find
the probability that this employee is
a) a female and is a college graduate,
b) a female or a college graduate,
c) not a college graduate given that the employee is a
male.

Ans: (a) (b) (c)

81 Example 2.39 (Solution)
4 1
a) P( F  G )   (refer table)
40 10

OR (use formula)
P( F  G )  P(G )  P( F | G ) or  P( F )  P(G | F )
11 4 13 4
  = 
40 11 40 13
1 1
 =
10 10
82 Example 2.39 (Solution)
b) P( F  G )  P ( F )  P (G )  P ( F  G )
13 11 4 1
   
40 40 40 2

c) P ( N | M )  P ( N  M )  n( N  M )
P( M ) n( M )
20

27
 Independent Events
83
 Two events are independent if the occurrence of one
event does not affect the occurrence of another.
 If A and B are independent events, it means that the
outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of the
other, then P(A | B) = P(A) and P(B | A) = P(B).
 Since P  A  B   P  B   P  A | B  and
P  B  A  P  A  P  B | A, the
probability of the intersection of 2 independent events A
and B is

P  A  B   P  A  P  B   This formula is only used

for independent events.
 Example 2.40
84
Two events C and D are independent where P(C) = 0.4
and P(D) = 0.25. Calculate
a) P (C  D) P (C  D ) b)

Ans: (a) 0.1 (b) 0.55

85 Example 2.40 (Solution)

a) P (C  D) P (C  D) b)
= P(C) P(D)  P(C )  P( D)  PC  D 
= (0.4)(0.25)
= 0.4 + 0.25 – 0.1
= 0.1 = 0.55
86 TEST FOR INDEPENDENCE
Two events A and B are independent if and only if

P(A | B) = P(A)
or P(B | A) = P(B)
or P(A  B) = P(A) × P(B)
87 TEST FOR INDEPENDENCE
Two events A and B are not independent if and only if

 P(A | B) P(A)
or  P(B | A) P(B)
or P(A  B) P(A) × P(B)

OR A and B are dependent events

 Example 2.41
88
A box contains a total of 100 CDs that were
manufactured on two machines.
Defective (D) Good (G) Total
Machine I (A) 9 51 60
Machine II (B) 6 34 40
Total 15 85 100

Are events D and A independent?

Ans: independent
89 Example 2.41 (Solution)
P ( D  A) n ( D  A) 9
P ( D | A)     0.15
P ( A) n ( A) 60
15
P (D)   0.15
100

P ( D | A)  P ( D) Defective
(D)
Good
(G)
Total

Machine I 9 51 60
Events D and A are independent. (A)
Machine II 6 34 40
(B)
Total 15 85 100
90 Example 2.41 (Solution)
OR
P ( A  D) n ( A  D) 9
P ( A | D)     0 .6
P ( D) n ( D) 15
60
P ( A)   0.6
100 Defective Good
Total
(D) (G)
P ( A | D)  P ( A) Machine I 9 51 60
(A)
Machine II 6 34 40
Events D and A are independent. (B)
Total 15 85 100
91 Example 2.41 (Solution)
OR
n( A  D ) 9
P ( A  D)    0.09
n( S ) 100
60 15
P ( A)  P ( D)    0.09
100 100
Defective Good
Total
(D) (G)
P ( A  D)  P ( A)  P ( D ) Machine I 9 51 60
(A)
Machine II 6 34 40
Events D and A are independent. (B)
Total 15 85 100
 Example 2.42
92 Suppose all 100 employees of a company were asked whether they are in
favour of or against staggered working hours. The table below shows the
responses of these 100 employees.
In Favour (I) Against Total
Male 15 45 60
Female (F) 4 36 40
Total 19 81 100

Determine whether the event “an employee is female” is independent of the

event “an employee is in favour staggered working hours”.

Ans: not independent

93
Example 2.42 (Solution)

4 Alternative:
P( F  I )   0.04
100
4 40
P( F )  P( I ) 
40 19
  0.076 P( F | I )  , P( F ) 
100 100 19 100
Since P( F  I )  P( F )  P( I ), P( F | I )  P( F )
events F and I are not independent.  F and I are not independent.
 Example 2.43
94 Three events, A, B and C are such that A and B are mutually exclusive
where P(A) = 0.3, P(C) = 0.4, P(A  B) = 0.5 and P(B  C) = 0.54.
a) Calculate P(B) and P(B  C).
b) Determine whether B and C are independent.

Ans: (a) 0.2 ; 0.06 (b) not independent

95 Example 2.43 (Solution)
a) Calculate P(B) and P(B  C).
P( A  B)  0
P ( A)  P ( B )  P ( A  B )  0
0.3  P( B)  0.5  0
P ( B )  0 .2
P( B  C )
 P ( B )  P (C )  P ( B  C )
 0.2  0.4  0.54
 0.06
96 Example 2.43 (Solution)
b) Determine whether B and C are independent.
Check: P ( B  C )  P ( B )  P (C ) ?
P ( B  C )  0.06
P ( B )  P (C )  (0.2)(0.4)  0.08
P ( B  C )  P ( B )  P (C )

So, B and C are dependent events.

OR B and C are not independent events.
 Example 2.44
97 The probability that a patient is allergic to penicillin is 0.20.
Suppose this drug is administered to three patients. Find the
probability that

(a) all three of them are allergic to it,

(b) at least one of them is not allergic to it.

Ans: (a) 0.008 (b) 0.992

98 Example 2.44 (Solution)
Let event A = The person is allergic to penicillin.
P(A) = 0.2
a) P(All three are allergic to penicillin)
 P( A  A  A)
= (0.2)(0.2)(0.2) = 0.008
b) P(at least one of them is not allergic)
= 1 – P(all three are allergic)
= 1 – 0.008 = 0.992
99 Tree Diagram
 A tree diagram consists of a number of branches that
illustrate all the possible outcomes for the
experiments.
 Tree Diagram
Conditional probabilities
100 Joint probabilities

P( B )  P( A  B )  P ( A  B )
 P( A)  P ( B | A)  P ( A)  P ( B | A)
 Example 2.45
101 The probability that a particular day will be sunny is 0.84. It is
known that the probability that Joey will go shopping if it is a
sunny day is 0.65, whereas the probability that Joey will go
shopping if it is not a sunny day is 0.3.
Let: Event S = Sunny on a particular day.
Event G = Joey will go shopping.

(i) Draw a tree diagram with joint probabilities calculated.

(ii) On a particular day, find the probability that
(a) it is a sunny day and Joey will not go shopping,
(b) Joey will go shopping,
(c) it is a sunny day given that Joey will go shopping.
Example 2.45 (Solution):
(i) Sunny or not Go shopping or not Joint probability

0.65 G P  S  G   0.84  0.65  0.546

S
 
0.84
0.35 G P S  G  0.84  0.35  0.294

0.3
G P  S  G   0.16  0.3  0.048
0.16
S
0.7 G  
P S  G  0.16  0.7  0.112
 P  0.546  0.294  0.048  0.112  1
Example 2.45 (Solution):
(a)  
P S  G  0.294

(b)

P G   P  S  G   P S  G 
  0.84  0.65    0.16  0.3
 0.594
P S  G  0.84  0.65
(c) P S G   
P (G ) 0.84  0.65   0.16  0.3
 0.9192
 Example 2.46
104
A bag contains 8 marbles, 5 blue and 3 red. Two marbles
are drawn from the bag one after another without
replacement. Find the probability that
a) both marbles are red,
b) the marbles are not of the same colour.

Ans: (a) (b)

 Example 2.46 (Solution)
105
Let B be blue marble and R be red marble
4  5   4  20 5
7 B P ( BB )       
 8   7  56 14
5 B
 5   3  15
8 3 R P ( BR )      
7  8   7  56

5  3   5  15
7 B P ( RB )      
3 R  8   7  56
8
2  3  2  6 3
7 R P ( RR )       
 8   7  56 28
1st draw 2nd draw
106 Example 2.46 (Solution)
Find the probability that
a) both marbles are red,
 3  2  6
P ( RR )     
3

 8  7  56 28
b) the marbles are not of the same colour.
 5  3   3 
P( BR)  P( RB)          5  15 15 30 15
  
 8  7   8  7  56 56 56 28
List of Formulae
Permutation: Combination:
n!  n n!
n
Pr  n
Cr    
n  r )!
(107  r  r!(n  r )!

Conditional probability: Multiplicative rule:

P( A | B) 
P( A  B ) P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B | A)
P( B)

Addition rule:
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )  P ( A  B )
108
THE END