Introduction to Probability

and Statistics
Twelfth Edition

Robert J. Beaver • Barbara M. Beaver • William Mendenhall

Presentation designed and written by:

Barbara M. Beaver
Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole
A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Introduction to Probability
and Statistics
Twelfth Edition

Chapter 5
Several Useful Discrete
Distributions
Some graphic screen captures from Seeing Statistics ® Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole
Some images © 2001-(current year) www.arttoday.com A division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
 Introduction
• Discrete random variables take on only a finite
or countably number of values.
• Three discrete probability distributions serve
as models for a large number of practical
applications:

The
The binomial
binomial random
random variable
variable

The
The Poisson
Poisson random
random variable
variable

The
The hypergeometric
hypergeometric random
random variable
variable

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 The Binomial Random Variable
• The coin-tossing experiment is a
simple example of a binomial
random variable. Toss a fair coin n
= 3 times and record x = number of
heads.

x p(x)
0 1/8
1 3/8
2 3/8
3 1/8
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 The Binomial Random Variable
• Many situations in real life resemble the coin
toss, but the coin is not necessarily fair, so that
P(H)  1/2.
• Example: A geneticist samples 10
people and counts the number who
have a gene linked to Alzheimer’s
disease.
• Coin: Person • Number of n = 10

• Head: Has gene tosses: P(has gene) = proportion

• Tail: Doesn’t have gene • P(H): in the population who
have the gene.
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-

Binomial Distribution
6

Examples
• A manufacturing plant labels items as either
defective or acceptable
• A firm bidding for a contract will either get the
contract or not
• A marketing research firm receives survey
responses of “yes I will buy” or “no I will not”
• New job applicants either accept the offer or
reject it

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 The Binomial Experiment
1. The experiment consists of n identical trials.
2. Each trial results in one of two outcomes,
outcomes success (S)
or failure (F).
3. The probability of success on a single trial is p and
remains constant from trial to trial. The probability
of failure is q = 1 – p.
4. The trials are independent.
independent
5. We are interested in x, the number of successes in n
trials.

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 The Binomial Probability
Distribution
• For a binomial experiment with n trials and
probability p of success on a given trial, the
probability of k successes in n trials is
nn kk nnkk nn!! kk nnkk
PP((xx  kk))CC pp qq
kk  pp qq for forkk 00,1,1,,22,...
,...nn..
kk!!((nnkk)!)!
nn!!
Recall CC 
nn
Recall kk
kk!!((nnkk)!)!
withnn!! nn((nn11)()(nn22)...(
with and00!!11..
)...(22))11and
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 The Mean and Standard
Deviation
• For a binomial experiment with n trials and
probability p of success on a given trial, the
measures of center and spread are:

Mean::  np
Mean np
Variance::  npq
22
Variance npq
Standard deviation::  npq
Standarddeviation npq

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MY APPLET
Example
A marksman hits a target 80% of the
time. He fires five shots at the target. What is
the probability that exactly 3 shots hit the
target?
n= 5 success = hit p = .8 x = # of hits

5!
P ( x  3)  C p q
n
3
3 n 3
 (.8)3 (.2)53
3!2!

 10(.8)3 (.2) 2  .2048

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MY APPLET
Example

What is the probability that more than 3 shots

hit the target?

P ( x  3)  C45 p 4 q 54  C55 p 5 q 55

5! 5!
 (.8) (.2) 
4 1
(.8)5 (.2) 0
4!1! 5!0!

 5(.8) 4 (.2)  (.8)5  .7373

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-
1
2

Example 5.3 Page 187

Find P(x = 2) for a binomial random variable with n = 10 and
p = 0 .1.

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1
3

Example 5.4 Page 188

Over a long period of time, it has been observed that a professional basketball player
can make a free throw on a given trial with probability equal to 0.8. Suppose he
shoots four free throws.
1. What is the probability that he will make exactly two free throws?
2. What is the probability that he will make at least one free throw?

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 Cumulative
Probability Tables
You can use the cumulative probability
tables to find probabilities for selected
binomial distributions.

Find
Find the
the table
table for
for the
the correct
correct value
value of
of n.
n.

Find
Find the
the column
column for
for the
the correct
correct value
value of
of p.
p.

The
The row
row marked
marked “k”
“k” gives
gives the
the cumulative
cumulative
probability, P(x  k)
probability, P(x k) == P(x
P(x == 0)
0) +…+
+…+ P(x
P(x == k)
k)
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MY APPLET
Example
k p = .80
0 .000
1 .007 What is the probability that exactly 3
2 .058 shots hit the target?
3 .263 P(
P(xx == 3) P(x Check
3) == P(x  3)
3) ––from
P(x  2)
P(xformula:
2)
4 .672 == .263
.263 -- .058
.058 P(x = 3) = .2048
5 1.000
== .205
.205

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 MY APPLET
Example
k p = .80
0 .000 What is the probability that more
1 .007 than 3 shots hit the target?
2 .058
3 .263
4 .672
P(
P(xx >> 3) P(x  3)
3) == 11 -- P(x 3)
5 1.000
== 11 -- .263
.263 == .737
.737
Check from formula:
P(x > 3) = .7373

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 Example 5.5 Page 189
-
1
7

Use the cumulative binomial table for n = 5 and p = .6 to find the probabilities of
these events:
1.At most three successes
2.Exactly three successes
3. Three or more successes

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 Example
• Here is the probability distribution
for x = number of hits. What are
the mean and standard deviation
for x?
Mean::  np
Mean np  55(.(.88))  44
Standard deviation::  npq
Standarddeviation npq

 55(.(.88)(.
)(.22))  ..89
89


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1
9

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 MY APPLET
Example
• Would it be unusual to find
that none of the shots hit the
target?   44;;  ..89
89

• The value x = 0 lies

xx 0044
zz    44..49
49
 ..89
89
• more than 4 standard
deviations below the
mean. Very unusual.

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2
1

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 The Poisson Random Variable
• The Poisson random variable x is a model for
data that represent the number of occurrences of
a specified event in a given unit of time or space.

• Examples:
• The number of calls received by a
switchboard during a given period of time.
• The number of machine breakdowns in a day
• The number of traffic accidents at a given
intersection during a given time period.
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 The Poisson Probability
Distribution
• x is the number of events that occur in a period
of time or space during which an average of 
such events can be expected to occur. The
probability of k occurrences of this event is
 ke
P(x  k ) 
k!
For
Forvalues
valuesofofkk==0,0,1,1,2,2,…
…The
Themean
meanand
and
standard
standarddeviation
deviationof ofthe
thePoisson
Poissonrandom
random
variable
variableare
are
Mean:
Mean:
Standard deviation:    Copyright ©2006 Brooks/Cole
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 Example
The average number of traffic accidents on a
certain section of highway is two per week.
Find the probability of exactly one accident
during a one-week period.
k  1 2
 e 2e 2
P ( x  1)    2e  .2707
k! 1!

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 Cumulative
Probability Tables
You can use the cumulative probability
tables to find probabilities for selected Poisson
distributions.


Find
Find the
the column
column for
for the
the correct
correct value of ..
value of

The
The row
row marked
marked “k”
“k” gives
gives the
the cumulative
cumulative
probability, P(x  k)
probability, P(x k) == P(x
P(x == 0)
0) +…+
+…+ P(x
P(x == k)
k)

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 P(
P(xx == 1) P(x 
1) == P(x
Example == .406
.406 -- .135
.135 Ch
== .271
.271 P(x
k =2 What is the probability that there is
0 .135 exactly 1 accident?
1 .406
2 .677
3 .857
4 .947
5 .983
6 .995
7 .999
8 1.000
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 Example
k =2 What is the probability that 8 or
0 .135 more accidents happen?
1 .406
2 .677
P(xx  8)
P( 8) == 11 -- P(x
P(x << 8)
8)
3 .857
P(x  7)
== 11 –– P(x 7)
== 11 -- .999
.999 == .001
.001
4 .947
5 .983 This
Thiswould
wouldbe bevery
veryunusual
unusual(small
(small
6 .995 probability)
probability)since
sincexx==88lies
lies
x 82
7 .999 z   4 .24
 1 .414
8 1.000
standard
standarddeviations
deviationsabove
abovethe
themean.
mean.
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3
0

5.43 Airport Safety The increased number of small

commuter planes in major airports has heightened concern
over air safety. An eastern airport has recorded a
monthly average of five near-misses on landings and
takeoffs in the past 5 years.
a. Find the probability that during a given month there
are no near-misses on landings and takeoffs at the
airport.

b. Find the probability that during a given month there

are five near-misses.
c. Find the probability that there are at least five near
misses during a particular month.

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