Demography

Dr. Alok Acharya

MD ( Community Medicine)
Lecturer
NOMCTH
 VITAL EVENTS
3
 CENSUS
6

 “ the total process of collecting, compiling and

publishing demographic, economic and social
data pertaining at a specified time or times, to
all
persons in a country or delimited territory".
(United Nations)

 ‘Census’ comes from the Latin world

‘Sensere’ means value or tax.

 10 year interval

 Important source of health information

 DEMOGRAPY
 DEMOGRAPHY-- is scientific study of human population.
-- is statistical study of human population with regard to their
size & structure , their composition by age, sex, marital status &
ethnic origin & the changes to these population like changes in
their birth rate ,death rate & migration.
 POPULATION is the number of person occupying a certain geographic
area drawing substance from their habitat and interacting with one
another.
 HABITAT is natural home.(natural environment of an organism.)
 DEMOGRAPHY
scientific study of human
population
 It focus on
(a)change in population size (growth or
decline)
(b) composition of population(age,sex,etc)
(c)distribution of population

 It deals with`5’ “demographic processes”

(a)fertility or natality
(b) mortality
(c)marriage
(d) migration
(e) social mobility
 Source of demographic data
Main source of demographic data are

Population census

National sample surveys

Registration of vital events

Adhoc demographic studies.

Importance of demography & demographic data

Demographic data provide a basis for predicting future trends & making decisions.
It is also important for formulation, implementation & evaluation of plan ,policies &
programs.
It guide to policy makers to make policies that can fulfill the needs of various sector
of society such as young ,adult, & aged, unemployed, poor & various cultural group.
 THEORIES ON POPULATION GROWTH AND DECLINE
MALTHUSIAN THEORY (THOMAS MALTHUS 1766-1834 )
“An assay n the principle of population” theorized that
population was uncontrollable & that it would.
Argued that human population are inescapably caught in conflict
between their “need for food” and “passion between sexes”. population he
maintained increases geometrically (2,4,8,16,…) while food supplies increases
only arithmetically (2,3,4,5…..)

MARXIAN THEORY(CARL MARX)

Marx believed that problem was not primarily one of population
but one of the ownership of the means of production and inequitable
distribution of societies wealth.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY ( WARREN
THOMPSON )
in 1929 the American demographer Warren Thompson
observed changes in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over
past 200 years or so and then formulated a model called demographic
transition , that describes population change over time (demographic cycle).
 DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE
 it has 5 stages through which each country passes during course of
time.

STAGE 3:LATE STAGE 4:LOW

EXPANDING STATIONARY

STAGE 2:EARLY STAGE

EXPANDING 5:DECLINI
NG

STAGE 1:HIGH
STATIONARY
 DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE
Characteristic & examples of different stages of demographic cycle
STAGE 1 2 3 4 5

K/a HIGH EARLY LATE LOW DECLININ

STATIONA EXPANDING EXPANDING STATIONA G
RY RY
BR high unchanged tends to fall Low Lower than
(remains high) DR
DR high Begin to fall Falls further Low Low
(higher
than BR)
DG Narrow Increasing Increased/start Narrow Reversal
(demographi decreasing
c gap)
population Stationary Growing Growing Stationary declining
(Increasing (decreasing
rate) rate)
Population young young young mixed ageing
composition
DEMOGRAPHIC
CYCLE
 Components of population
change
FERTILITY (BIRTHS) :
Birth rate :“number of live birth per 1000 estimated mid year population in a
given year”
birth rate is the simplest indicator of fertility.

number of live birth during a year

birth rate (BR) =
------------------------------------------- x1000
Estimated mid year population

MORTALITY ( DEATH ) :
Death rate : “ number of death per 1000 of total mid year population in a
particular place at a specified time”
Number of death
Death rate(DR) =-----------------------------------x1000
Mid year population

MIGRATION
Migration is movement of people from one place to another ( within country or
specified territory ) for the purpose of taking up permanent or semi
9
permanent residence, usually across a political boundary.
 Birth and death rates
Declining birth rates –
Changes in government
attitude towards growth
spread of education

increased availability of
contraception
family planning programs

change in marriage patterns

Declining death rate-

improvement in maternal and child
health services
improved immunization

diarrhoeal and respiratory disease

control programs
reduction in infant and child mortality 10
 GROWTH
RATE
“Change in number of individual in a population per unit time”

When crude death rate subtracted to crude birth rate, the net residual
is current annual growth rate, exclusive of migration.

Annual growth rate = crude birth rate – crude death rate

Annual growth
On the basis rate growth
of annual Population rating rating &
rate, population Population
its doublingdoubling
time time
0 stationary
<0.5% slow growth >139 year
0.5-1% moderate growth >70 year (139 -
70)
1-1.5% rapid growth appox.50 year (70 -47)
1.5-2% Very rapid growth appox.40 year (47-35)
>2% Explosive growth < 35 year
Modified from ,Source : principles of demography john Wiley
(1969)
• Population growth are subject to momentum
 Annual growth
rate(AGR)
Annual growth rate = crude birth rate – crude death
rate

look the example :

Crude birth rate = 21.6 /1000 population
Crude death rate = 7 /1000 population So
Annual growth rate = 21.6 – 7 =14.6 /1000
population
Or
=1.46 %

But if we consider migration

than…….
 MIGRATIO
N
Migration is movement of people from one place to another for
the purpose of taking up permanent or semi
permanent residence, usually across a political
boundary
Immigration: People moving in to another country
Emigration: People moving away from their home country.

*If you were to move to England, you would be emigrating from

Nepal
and immigrating into England.*

Migrant is a person who at the time of census is residing at

a different place than his/her place of birth.

Marriage being the most common reason for females

and employment for males .
 ROLE OF MIGRATION IN POPULATION GROWTH
Push-Pull Factor

Population Growth rate = Rate of natural increase + net migration rate

Rate of natural increase = Birth rate – Death rate

Doubling Time: The amount of time it takes for a country’s population to

double
- Generally known as the Rule of
70:

70 / Population Growth Rate = doubling time

there are two things that affect population: Fertility/Mortality rate

,
:Migration rate .
 Rate of Natural Increase

How to calculate: look the

(%)
example
Country Populatio Birth Rate Death Rate Natural %
n per 1000 per 1000 Increase per Natural
(Millions) 1000 Increase
India 1,214,464,000 23.0 8.5 14.5 1.45%
(1.214 billion)

Exercise:
Country Populatio Birth Rate Death Rate Natural % Natural
n per 1000 per 1000 Increase per Increase
(Millions) 1000
Russia 140,367,000 10.8 15.1

Population growth rate including migration:

Country Rate of net Population
natural migration Growth rate (%)
increase (%) rate(%)
India 1.45 -0.005 1.45-0.005=1.44
*net migration rate of indiça:−0.05 migrant(s)/1,000 population
(2007 est.)
Country Rate of natural net migration Population
increase (per rate(per Growth rate( per
1000) 1000) 1000)
India 14.5 -0.05 14.45

* * * population growth per 1000 is

14.45 Hence,
population growth per individual
=14.45/1000
So,
population growth in
%=14.45x100/1000
=1.445 %
Important definitions in demography

Crude birth rate(CBR): annual no. of live birth per 1000 mid year
population.

Crude death rate(CDR): annual no. of death per 1000 mid year population.

General fertility rate(GFR):Annual no. of live birth per 1000 women

of childbearing age (15-44 or 49 year old )mid year population.

General marital fertility rate (GMFR): number of live births per 1000
women in reproductive age group(15-44 or 49) in a given year.

Age specific fertility rate (ASFR):number of live births in a year to

1000 women in any specified age group.

Total fertility rate (TFR):number of children a woman would have if she

were to pass through her reproductive years bearing children at the same
rates as the women now in each group. (it give approx magnitude of
“completed family size”).
 Demographic trends
Demographic indicator
Age & sex
composition Sex ratio
Dependency ratio
Density of population
Urbanization
Family size
Literacy &
education Life
expectancy
Demographic indicator
These indicator help in - identification of that area which need policy or
programmed intervention.
-setting near & far term goals & deciding priorities.
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATOR
POPULATION STATISTIC VITAL STATISTIC
Population size Birth rate
Sex ratio Life expectancy at birth
Population density Mortality rate
Dependency ratio Fertility rate
AGE &SEX COMPOSITION
0–14 years: (30.8% ); male: 188,208,196, female:171,356,024 (Male > female)
15–64 years: (64.3%); male: 386,432,921, female:364,215,759
65+ years: (4.9%); male: 27,258,259, female: 30,031,289 (female >male)
Médian âge
25.1 years
Proportion of population below 14 showing decline whereas population of
elderly increasing

AGE PYRAMIDS
A population
pyramid tells us
what portion of
a population are
within a
given age
cohort.
male

female
4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4
Population pyramids can also tell us what stage of development a country is at.

Early Expanding
• Wide base (lots of young children)
and a very narrow top (few old
people).
• Very high birth rate and death rate
(short life expectancy).
•Reasons could include poor health
care, lack of family planning, need
for children as workers.
• Corresponds to stage 1 – 2 of DTM

E
x
p
a
n
d
i
n
 Stable:
 Bottom part of pyramid is close to a vertical line.
 Birth rate falls while death rate also falls and they are in balance
 Reasons could include better health care, improved family planning, better
economic conditions.
 Roughly corresponds with stage 4 of the demographic transition model

Contracting:
 Bottom part of pyramid narrower than the middle and continually getting
narrower.
 Birth rate continues to fall while the death rate continues to decrease.
 Reasons could include more women working, high cost of child rearing,
small families encouraged by the state.
 Examples: Germany/ Japan.
 Roughly corresponds with stage 5 of the demographic transition model.
 DEPENDANCY RATIO
Dependent age group ---- >65 & <15
year Economic productive group ---- 15-
64 year
the proportion of persons above 65 yrs of age and children below 15 yrs of age
are considered to be dependent on economically productive age group (15-64
years)

Children ( 0-14 years) + population >65 years

Total dependency ratio* = -------------------------------------------------------------x
100
Population 15 -64 years
* Also k/a societal dependency ratio.
Demographic bonus
Period when the dependency ratio in a population declines because of decline in
fertility, Until it starts to rise again because of increasing longitivity.
 It gives push to development.

Demographic burden
The increase in total dependency ratio during any period of time .

Mostly Caused by increased old age dependency ratio.

FAMILY SIZE
In general family size represent : total number of person in a family.
Demographically: total number of children a woman has born at a point of time
completed family size :total number of children borne by a woman during her child
bearing age (15 – 45 years)*

Family size depends on‐ duration of marriage

‐ education of couple
‐ no. of live births and living children
‐ preference of male children
‐ desired family size.

Total fertility rate gives approx. magnitude of completed family size.

Long term demographic goal is net reproduction rate (NRR) = 1 ,**
which means “ 2 child family norm”.
NET REPRODUCTION RATE (NRR) : “no of daughters a newborn
girl
will bear during her lifetime , assuming fixed age specific fertility
and mortality rates”
*child bearing age gen. assumed in between 15 and 45 years.
**NRR=1 each woman will reproduce exactly301 girl.
LIFE EXPECTANCY
is the “average number of years which a person may expect to live”
Age specific life expectancy : life expectancy at a given age is average number of
years which a person of that age may expect to live.

 It is one of the best indicator for a country to measure it development

&health status of its population.
 Rate and Ratio
15

 Rate of the vital events is defined as the

ratio of the total numbers of occur ences
of the events to the total numbers of
person exposed to the risk of occur ences
of that events.

 Sex ratio= Male population X

10
Female population
 child women ratio X
Total female
Nos of popyrs
child<5 15-49 10
yrs
 Measurement of Mortality
16

(a) Crude DeathRate (CDR)

= Total death in a given year X 10 0
Average or mid year pop. of a
year
(b) Age-specific Deathrate (ASDR)
Crude rate is
Nos. of death at age ’a’ _X 10 based on total
population
0 Mid-yrs pop. of a given year while a
specific rate is
at age ’a’ based on the
basis of age,
sex, cause
etc
17

(c) Infant Mortalityrate

(IMR)
= Nos. of infant death in a year
X1 0 0 Nos. of live birth in the
year
 Sensitive indicators
 Reflect the socio-economic status of the country
 Also reflect the medical and health facilities in
a population
 Two parts IMR
18

1) Neonatal
MortalityRate
= Death under one X 10 0
months
 Nos. basical
It occurs of live birth
y due to the endogenous factors of
death

2) Post-neonates MortalityRate
= Death between 1stand 1 complete X1 0 0
months Nos. of live birth
 It is affected by the exogenous factors
(environments, sanitation, health facilities, etc)
19

(d) Cause-specific deathrate

= Deaths due to the cause I X1 00
(di) Total nos. of death (D) 0

 Useful to analysis the death by

cause
(e) Case fatalityrate
= Death due to the specific disease X1 0
total nos. of il ness due to that 0
disease
20

(f) Maternal MortalityRate

(MMR)

nos. of death of mother due to the cause

related to maternity X 100000
Total nos. of live birth

 Sensitive and important indicator of

maternal health
 Fertility?
Fertility?
Measurement of Fertilit yThe
Theage age
21
fertility
of
of ?
fertility?
(a) Crude BirthRate
(CBR)
total nos. of birth in a X
year Mid year pop. in 1 000
that year
(b) General FertilityRate (GFR)
Total nos. of birth in a X
year Average nos. of 1000
women
in reproductive age group
22
(c) Age-specific fertilityRate
(ASFR)
Nos. of birth to women aged “ x ” X
1000 Nos. of women aged ” x ”
 Useful for family planning programme point of view

(d) Age-specific Marital fertilityRate (ASMFR)

Nos.of birth to women aged ” x”

X1 000 Nos. of married women aged ” x ”
23
(e ) Total fertilityRate
(TFR)
4
9

ΣASF
Rx
x=
15
 The physical meaning of TFRis that it is the
expected number of children that a women will
bear in her life time, passing through the
reproductive age and bearing children according to
fixed schedule of fertility
24

(f) Gros Reproduction Rate

(GRR)

 is a measure of population which describe the

rate of increase of population over a generation

 Defined as the average number of daughter among

birth cohort of women, which they wil bear in
their life time, passing through the reproductive
age and bearing children according to fixed
schedule of fertility, if they survive to the end of
child bearing period
25
(g) Net Reproduction Rate
(NRR)

 Measure of number of daughters which a

cohort of girl infant wil bear as grow to
adulthood and pass through the child period,
provided that as they pass through each age
they bear children at the rate indicated by a
current schedule of age specific fertility rates
and from birth til the end of the child
bearing period they are subjected to
mortality as per life table