ALL ARE WELCOME

2024
POPULATION GROWTH MERITS & DEMERITS

DIRECTORATE OF CENSUS OPERATIONS

TAMIL NADU

05-07-2024
Who suggested World Population Day? OR Who founded world population day?
Founder of the International Institute of Migration &
Development
Biography

The concept of World Population Day was started in 1989 by the United
Nations, after a proposal by Dr. KC Zachariah, on the eve of the worldwide
population crossing five billion on July 11, 1987. More than 90 nations first
observed World Population Day on July 11, 1990.

Shri K. C. Zachariah

K. C. Zachariah was a Honorary Professor at the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala. He
was a senior demographer at the World Bank, from 1971 to 1989, Washington DC, the United Nations expert on
demography at the Cairo Demographic Centre (1966–70) and Deputy Director, International Institute for Population
Sciences, Mumbai (1957–1966). He holds a PhD in Sociology from the University of Pennsylvania (USA) and has six
decades of research experience. He has also co-ordinated six major migration surveys in Kerala since 1998 and has
published extensively in national and international journals on social, economic and demographic implications of
international migration.
 INTRODUCTION
 World’s population has reached 8 billion.

 Rapid population growth impedes development.

 Overpopulation is a growing problem throughout the world.

 There will, of course, be significant increases in the demand for food, water, and energy
in developing countries.

 India’s population is projected to surpass China’s, making India the most populous nation
in the world
.

 According to estimates by United Nations report, India is expected to add 273 million
people by the year 2050.
 OBJECTIVE
•India needs to focus on some areas which are socially, culturally, economically depressed.
However, it needs to work in the whole of Bihar, U.P., Madhya Pradesh and Assam.

•India needs to give huge stress on declining sex ratios and the discrimination towards
girls so that people don’t have a high number of children in the hope of having a boy.

•India can achieve a number of SDGs if it links them with family planning. Family
planning is a promotive and preventive method for bringing down maternal mortality and
child mortality.

•It is important to see the issue of population growth not only from the national perspective
but also from the state’s point of view i.e. different states need to be encouraged to take
necessary steps for containing the population.
The Day of Eight Billion, marked on 15 November 2022, by the United Nations as the
approximate day when the world population reached eight billion people i.e. almost 11 years.
 FORMULA

Population growth =
(Birth rate+ Immigration) - (Mortality + Emigration)
 Causes of rapid population Growth

1. High birth rate

2. Relatively lower death rate &
In India the population has rapidly
increased mainly due to decline
in the death rate, while the birth
rate remained high.

3. Migration: Net Migration is the

difference between emigration and
immigration
 Emigration is when a person moves out of the country.
 Immigration is when a person moves into a country.
 Reasons for High Birth Rate
A. Economic factors & B. Social factors

A. Economic factors

1. Predominance of agriculture
In agrarian society children never been considered
as economic burden.

2. Slow urbanization process &

predominance of villages

3. Poverty
People are not poor because they have large families. Quite
the contrary, they have large families because they
are poor.
-(Mahmood Mandani)
B. Social factors

1. Near universality of marriage

2. Lower age at the time of

marriage

3. Religious & social superstitions

4. Joint family system

 Contd..
5. Lack of education

6. Unawareness about
family planning services

7. Social and religious beliefs -

especially in relation to
contraception and abortion

8. Infant Mortality Rate

 Reasons for decline in the mortality rate a. Elimination of
famines
b. Control of epidemics & decline in the
incidence of Malaria & Tuberculosis: Cholera
and small fox were the two major causes of epidemics before independence.
Now cholera is completely eradicated and small fox is very much under
control. Polio completely eradicated.

c. Supply of pure drinking water

d. Sanitation & hygiene

Contd..
e. Nutrition levels

f. Living standard

g. Education, health
care & expanded
medical facilities

h. Social factors such

as conflicts and
levels of violent
crimes
Birth rate & Death rate in India

Birth rate Death rate

Year (births/1,000 population) (deaths/1,000 population)

1941-51 39.9 27.4

1951-61 41.7 22.8
1961-71 41.1 19
1971-81 37.2 15
1981-91 29.5 9.8
1991-01 25.8 8.5
2001-11 22.5 7.7

Source: Calculated from the Census of India data and Ministry of Health and Family Welfare,
Government of India
 Birth rate & Death rate in India

45

40

35
rate of growth

30

25

20

15

10

0
1941-51 1951-61 1961-71 1971-81 1981-91 1991-01 2001-11

years
Birth rate (births/1,000 population) Death rate (deaths/1,000 population)
 Migration: geographical distribution
International
 Migration from low to middle & high income
countries
 Employment based migration

Intra-national
 Rural to Urban
 Semi-Urban to Urban

Why migrate?
 Lure of big city
 Job opportunities (pull factor)
 Lack of rural opportunities (push
factor)
 International migration, 2010 (Top 10)
Highest percentage of Largest number of international
international migrants migrants, (millions)
Qatar 87% USA 42.8
UAE 70% Russia 12.3
Kuwait 69% Germany 10.8
Jordan 465 Saudi Arabia 7.3
Palestine 44% Canada 7.2
Singapore 41% France 6.7
Israel 40% UK 6.5
Hong Kong 39% Spain 6.4
Saudi Arabia 38% India 5.4
Oman 38% Ukraine 5.3

Source: Population Growth & Its impacts, PAD 6838/ 7865 Lecture 3
Age Population pyramid of developing &
developed countries
 Youth Bulge
 Population pyramid depicts the current distribution of people across age
groups.

 A large number of youth constitute India’s population; about 36 percent of

the population is under age 15.

 This young age structure creates a powerful momentum for future

population growth.

 Many females will soon enter their reproductive years and have children
within the next decade. Even if fertility declines rapidly, it will take 50 years
for the population to stabilize.
India’s Youth Bulge

Projections arrived using Spectrum with inputs from Census 2011, and NFHS
 AGEING
POPULATION
The world’s population is living longer
and growing older. Embracing and
planning for this massive demographic
transition is one of the greatest social
challenges of the 21st century.

Ageing is a complex and intricate issue.

The United Nations Decade of Healthy
Ageing (2021-2030) recognises the far-
reaching impact of ageing to encompass
not just health systems but labour and
financial markets, social protection, and
education among other facets.
While India has the highest number of young people, ageing is
rapidly progressing. The current elderly population of 153
million (aged 60 and above) is expected to reach a staggering
347 million by 2050. This demographic shift is not merely a
statistic, it's a societal transformation of unparalleled magnitude
with far-reaching implications.
In India, the loss of financial security is deeply witnessed with
40% of elderly being in the poorest wealth quintile while about
one-fifth have no income at all. Social-cultural mindsets and
norms that label the elderly as a “burden”, elderly abuse, as well
as a lack of comprehensive safety nets increase the vulnerability
of older individuals manifold. It is important to highlight that
the unique phenomena of feminisation and ruralisation places
further strain on the elderly population. However, India’s ageing
story is not without hope.
Notably, the Government of India has made
positive strides with its forward looking and
inclusive policies, programmes, and schemes
such as the National Programme for Health
Care of the Elderly (NPHCE), the National
Social Assistance Programme (NSAP), the
Maintenance and Welfare of Senior Citizens
Act, 2007 and the (Amendment) Bill, Atal
Vayo Abhyuday Yojana’ (AVYAY), and
Elderline--a national helpline, among others.
 How to reduce rapid population growth?
1.Expansion of industrial sector:
Industrial workers are aware of difficulties in
getting the employment & are interested in
restricting the size of their family.

2.Creation of employment opportunities

in urban areas:
The housing problem and the cost of upbringing
of children in urban areas are the two factors
which usually deter people from having big
families.
3. Equitable distribution of income and
removal of poverty Poor people have
virtually no interest in limiting the size of
the family.

4.Increase education,
employment and
wages for women

Education often changes the attitude of a

person towards family, marriage and the
number of children he/she should have.
5. Increase the minimum-age
child labor

6.Provide better old-age

social security
To reduce the dependency on
the children

7.Raising the minimum age

of marriage
India should try to draw some
lesson from the experiences of
China, Malaysia and Sri Lanka
where fertility decline has
occurred largely through an
increase in age at marriage.
8. Improve child health to reduce
infant mortality

9. Implementation of family-
planning programs

10. Monetary subsidies to small

families
 Population Policy in
India
• It is difficult to decide as what is optimum size of population for India under the existing conditions.

• There has been complete reliance on family planning in order to reduce population explosion.

• The national family planning program was launched in 1951, and was the world's first governmental
population stabilization program.

• Low female literacy levels and the lack of widespread availability of birth-control methods is hampering
the use of contraception in India.

• Family planning accepted & practiced effectively in some of the states in India.

• Education and awareness needed about Family Planning.

 Discussion
 India and many third world countries are now passing through
the phase of population explosion.

 It is being argued that this situation has arisen because

development in these countries has failed to maintain pace
with population growth.

 Rapid growth of population causes poverty and proves to be a

barrier to development.
Indian population is growing much faster in the north – and
the south is declining:
As the map shows, there is a clear cleavage between
South India and North India. The south is blue, with
fertility rates lower than the replacement rate, meaning
that fewer babies are being born than people are dying
– a trend that would eventually result in a declining
population. The north is mostly orange or red with
Uttar Pradesh and Bihar – two states that together
make up a quarter of India’s population – recording
very high fertility rates of 2.74 and 3.41, respectively.
The result: in 1951, Tamil Nadu’s population was
slightly higher than Bihar’s. Six decades later, Bihar’s
population is nearly 1.5 times Tamil Nadu’s. Madhya
Pradesh in 1951 had 37% more people than Kerala; in
2011, it had 217% as many.
 Interaction
 Uttar Pradesh is the most populous state in the country with almost 200 million people,
which is more than the population of Brazil.
 The combined population of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra (2nd most populous
State), at 312 million, is substantially greater than the population of USA.
 Based on the population patterns, the existing distribution of parliamentary
constituencies across the States is tilted in favour of populous States such as Uttar
Pradesh, Bihar, while southern States like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and
Karnataka have a lesser number of seats.
 If delimitation occurs, Southern states will face a decrease in the number of seats
allocated to them, compared to the northern states, during the next delimitation
process.
 According to the 2019 research paper India’s Emerging Crisis of Representation, if the
delimitation is carried out according to the 2031 Census (the earliest scheduled after
2026), Bihar and Uttar Pradesh alone would gain as many as 21 seats in total, while
Tamil Nadu and Kerala together will lose 16 seats.
The median age is the age which divides the population into two equal halves, i.e. there are as many
people older than the median age as there are people younger than it. A low median age would suggest that
a country’s population has more young people than older people.

The median age of India’s population will be 37 years in 2050–lower than that of China, which will have a
median age of 46 years, but higher than Pakistan, which will have a median age of 30.9–according to data
from the United Nations.

The median age is broadly correlated with the level of development within the state in India. Southern
states with a higher per capita income such as Andhra Pradesh (27), Tamil Nadu (29), Karnataka (26) and
Kerala (31) and the western states of Maharashtra (26) and Gujarat (25) have higher median ages.

Less developed states in the north including Uttar Pradesh (20), Bihar (20), Jharkhand (22), Madhya
Pradesh (23) and Rajasthan (22) have lower median ages.

In 2026, Uttar Pradesh (26.85), Madhya Pradesh (28.83), Bihar (29.05) and Rajasthan (29.51) will
continue to have low median ages, while Kerala (37.67) and Tamil Nadu (37.29) will likely have the
highest median ages in the country.
India vs China - Changes in population structures mean for both countries:

India replaces China as the world's most populous nation

Demographic dividends are disappearing in China, while India has a chance
to grow with the fastest-growing economy:

•China's demographic dividend disappeared while India continues to grow

•Projections show the population structure of India is younger than China
•Half of India's current population is under the age of 30, whereas only about 35 per
cent of the Chinese are in the same age group
•In China, the ageing population (60 plus) is almost double that of India
•Ageing China may see slower economic growth
•China reported negative growth for the first time in six decades
 China’s three child policy
 China which had the One Child Policy has witnessed an increase in the population of old aged people.

 China went about containing its population growth in a coercive way and the experiment faced negative
reaction

 The latest census figures revealed that the demographic crisis China faced was expected to deepen as the
population of people above 60 years grew to 264 million, up by 18.7 per cent that continue to face the
pressure to achieve a long-term balanced population development,

 China is facing the risk of falling into the trap of low fertility, as it recorded 12 million births in 2020, marking
a drop for the fourth consecutive year.

 China's total fertility rate of women of childbearing age was 1.3, a relatively low level.

 Already from 2016 to 2021, it had been implemented in China, replacing the country's previous one-child
policy to two-child policy.

 In July 2021, all family size limits as well as penalties for exceeding them were removed and permitted for
three child policy.
 India the Youngest Populations in the World

India is home to a fifth of the world's youth population.

The large youth population offers both a workforce as well as a market.

These young people are driving a culture of innovation, entrepreneurship and diversity.

India's demographic dividend in terms of youth population is a key factor that is expected to
propel economic growth.

The youth population will create a demographic dividend that could play a critical role in
achieving the nation’s ambitious target to become a US$ 5 trillion economy..
 In nutshell population growth:
 Attracting investors and multinational companies. stimulating investment
in knowledge.
 Generating more new ideas which improve productivity. market size
stimulates innovative activities.
 A big home market that is an attractive prize for successful new products.
 Greater economies of scale (less cost in production per unit with increase of
volume).
 An absolutely larger number of outstanding, highly effective people.
 Increasing learning-by-doing due to pressures of increased production
volume
 More young people energizing the economy  Large population protect
country from external threats e.g. War
CONCLUSION:- Some demographers had said - "Population is not
a burden in itself" It means that a large population is not
a burden on its own. A large population can be turned up as
an asset for the country. The way we see the big population
of India today is not exactly what it is in all the cases.
The biggest example we can cite is China. It has a bigger
population than even India has, but we can see the level of
development that China has when compared to India. It does
not take its population to be a burden. does not get tensed
and does not think about what to do with such a big
population, but it uses its population as an asset.
Which Indian states have 2 child policy?

The state of Assam and Uttar Pradesh in India has adopted the two-child policy to control the
rampantly increasing population.
Thank you.