Hypothesis

Biomedical Statistics
Introduction
 We often use inferential statistics to make decisions or
judgments about the value of a parameter, such as a
population mean.
 For example, we might need to decide whether the mean
weight, μ, of all bags of chips packaged by a particular
company differs from the advertised weight of 454 grams
(g), or we might want to determine whether the mean age,
μ, of all cars in use has increased from the year 2000 mean
of 9.0 years.
 Definition

 A supposition or proposed explanation made on the

basis of limited evidence as a starting point for
further Investigation.
……
 A hypothesis is a statement that something is true. For
example, the statement “the mean weight of all bags of
chips packaged differs from the advertised weight of 454
g” is a hypothesis.
 Typically, a hypothesis test involves two hypotheses: the
null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis (or
research hypothesis), which we define on next slide.
Null and Alternative Hypotheses
 Null hypothesis: A hypothesis to be tested. We use the
symbol H0 to represent the null hypothesis.
 Alternative hypothesis: A hypothesis to be considered as
an alternative to the null hypothesis. We use the symbol Ha
to represent the alternative hypothesis.
 Hypothesis test: The problem in a hypothesis test is to
decide whether the null hypothesis should be rejected in
favor of the alternative hypothesis.
……

 For instance, in the chips-packaging example, the null

hypothesis might be “the mean weight of all bags of chips
packaged equals the advertised weight of 454 g,” and the
alternative hypothesis might be “the mean weight of all
bags of chips packaged differs from the advertised weight
of 454 g.”
Choosing the Hypotheses
The first step in setting up a hypothesis test is to decide
on the null hypothesis and the alternative
hypothesis.
The following are some guidelines for choosing these
two hypotheses.
Although the guidelines refer specifically to hypothesis
tests for one population mean, μ, they apply to any
hypothesis test concerning one parameter.
Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis for a hypothesis test concerning a
population mean, μ, always specifies a single value for
that parameter.
Hence we can express the null hypothesis as
H0: μ = μ0, where μ0 is some number.
Alternative Hypothesis
 The choice of the alternative hypothesis depends on and
should reflect the purpose of the hypothesis test.
 Three choices are possible for the alternative hypothesis.
 If the primary concern is deciding whether a population
mean, μ, is different from a specified value μ0, we express
the alternative hypothesis as
H a : μ ≠ μ0.
 A hypothesis test whose alternative hypothesis has this
form is called a two-tailed test.
 If the primary concern is deciding whether a population mean, μ,
is less than a specified value μ0, we express the alternative
hypothesis as
Ha: μ<μ 0.
 A hypothesis test whose alternative hypothesis has this form is
called a left-tailed test.
 If the primary concern is deciding whether a population mean, μ,
is greater than a specified value μ0, we express the alternative
hypothesis as
Ha: μ > μ 0.
 A hypothesis test whose alternative hypothesis has this form is
called a right-tailed test.
 A hypothesis test is called a one-tailed test if it is either left
tailed or right tailed.
Example
 A snack-food company produces a 454-g bag of chips.
Although the actual net weights deviate slightly from 454 g
and vary from one bag to another, the company insists that
the mean net weight of the bags be 454 g. As part of its
program, the quality assurance department periodically
performs a hypothesis test to decide whether the packaging
machine is working properly, that is, to decide whether the
mean net weight of all bags packaged is 454 g.
a) Determine the null hypothesis for the hypothesis test.
b) Determine the alternative hypothesis for the hypothesis
test.
c) Classify the hypothesis test as two tailed, left tailed, or
right tailed.
Solution
 Let μ denote the mean net weight of all bags packaged.
a) The null hypothesis is that the packaging machine is
working properly, that is, that the mean net weight, μ, of
all bags packaged equals 454 g. In symbols,
H0: μ =454 g.
b) The alternative hypothesis is that the packaging machine is
not working properly, that is, that the mean net weight, μ,
of all bags packaged is different from 454 g. In symbols,
Ha: μ ≠ 454 g
c) This hypothesis test is two tailed because a does-not-equal
sign (≠) appears in the alternative hypothesis.
The Logic of Hypothesis Testing
 After we have chosen the null and alternative hypotheses,
we must decide whether to reject the null hypothesis in
favor of the alternative hypothesis. The procedure for
deciding is roughly as follows.
 Take a random sample from the population. If the sample
data are consistent with the null hypothesis, do not reject
the null hypothesis; if the sample data are inconsistent
with the null hypothesis and supportive of the alternative
hypothesis, reject the null hypothesis in favor of the
alternative hypothesis.
Type I and Type II Errors
 Any decision we make based on a hypothesis test may be
incorrect because we have used partial information
obtained from a sample to draw conclusions about the
entire population.
 There are two types of incorrect decisions, Type I error and
Type II error, as indicated in Table.

 Type I error: Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is in

fact true.
 Type II error: Not rejecting the null hypothesis when it is
in fact false.
Example
 Consider again the chips packaging hypothesis test. The null
and alternative hypotheses are, respectively, H0: μ = 454 g
(the packaging machine is working properly) Ha: μ ≠ 454 g
(the packaging machine is not working properly), where μ is
the mean net weight of all bags of chips packaged.
 Explain what each of the following would mean.
a. Type I error b. Type II error c. Correct decision
……
 Now suppose that the results of carrying out the
hypothesis test lead to rejection of the null
hypothesis μ = 454 g, that is, to the conclusion that
μ ≠ 454 g. Classify that conclusion by error type or as
a correct decision if
c. The mean net weight, μ, is in fact 454 g.
d. the mean net weight, μ, is in fact not 454 g.
Solution
a) A Type I error occurs when a true null hypothesis is
rejected. In this case, a Type I error would occur if in
fact
μ =454 g but the results of the sampling lead to the
conclusion that
μ ≠ 454 g
Interpretation: A Type I error occurs if we conclude that the
packaging machine is not working properly when in fact it is
working properly.
……
b) A Type II error occurs when a false null hypothesis
is not rejected. In this case, a Type II error would
occur if in fact μ ≠ 454 g but the results of the
sampling fail to lead to that conclusion.
Interpretation A Type II error occurs if we fail to
conclude that the packaging machine is not working
properly when in fact it is not working properly
c. A correct decision can occur in either of two ways.
A true null hypothesis is not rejected. That would
happen if in fact μ =454 g and the results of the
sampling do not lead to the rejection of that fact.
A false null hypothesis is rejected. That would happen
if in fact μ ≠ 454 g and the results of the sampling lead
to that conclusion.
d) If in fact μ = 454 g, the null hypothesis is true.
Consequently, by rejecting the null hypothesis
μ = 454 g, we have made a Type I error—we
have rejected a true null hypothesis.
e) If in fact μ ≠ 454 g, the null hypothesis is false.
Consequently, by rejecting the null hypothesis μ
= 454 g, we have made a correct decision—we
have rejected a false null hypothesis
Probabilities of Type I and Type II Errors
Part of evaluating the effectiveness of a hypothesis test
involves analysing the chances of making an incorrect
decision.
A Type I error occurs if a true null hypothesis is
rejected. The probability of that happening, the Type I
error probability, commonly called the significance
level of the hypothesis test, is denoted α (the lowercase
Greek letter alpha).
Significance Level The probability of making a Type I
error, that is, of rejecting a true null hypothesis, is
called the significance level, α, of a hypothesis test.
A Type II error occurs if a false null hypothesis is not
rejected. The probability of that happening, the Type II
error probability, is denoted β (the lowercase Greek
letter beta).