B.

SC (Design & Computing)

STATISTICAL INFERENCE AND
ITS APPLICATIONS
BITS Pilani HCL Faculty Team
Pilani|Dubai|Goa|Hyderabad
 BITS Pilani
Pilani|Dubai|Goa|Hyderabad

Session 1 (Review of Statistics,

Probability and Distributions)

08/13/2024 2
 BITS Pilani
Pilani|Dubai|Goa|Hyderabad

Time Type Description References

CS-1 CS-1  Review of Probability & Statistics R2

 Probability Distributions- z, t , F distributions

Post-CS-1 HW Chapter 1 R2
 Probability as a Numerical Measure
of the Likelihood of Occurrence (Uncertainty)

Increasing Likelihood of Occurrence

0 .5 1
Probability:

The occurrence of the event is

just as likely as it is unlikely.

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 Classical Probability
• Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that
an event will occur.

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Empirical Probability

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Axioms of Probability

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Results on Probability

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 Example
• In a certain residential hub,60% of all households get
internet service from the local cable company,80% get
the television service from that company, and 50% get
both services from that company.
• If a household is randomly selected, what is the
probability that it gets at least one of these two services
from the company, and what is the probability that it
gets exactly one of these services from the company?
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BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
The Definition of Conditional Probability

Definition
 The Multiplication Rule for P(A ∩ B)

The definition of conditional probability yields the following

result, obtained by multiplying both sides of Equation (2.3) by
P(B).

The Multiplication Rule

This rule is important because it is often the case that

P(A ∩ B) is desired, whereas both P(B) and can be
specified from the problem description.
Independent Events

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 Example
Suppose that of all individuals buying a certain digital camera,
60% include an optional memory card in their purchase, 40%
include an extra battery, and 30% include both a card and
battery. Consider randomly selecting a buyer and let

A = {memory card purchased} and

B = {battery purchased}.

Then P(A) = .60, P(B) = .40, P(both purchased) = P(A ∩ B) = .30

 Solution
 Given that the selected individual purchased an extra battery,
the probability that an optional card was also purchased .

That is, of all those purchasing an extra battery, 75%

purchased an optional memory card. Similarly,

P(battery|memorycard)
Bayes’ Theorem
 EXAMPLE
 Three persons A,B and C are competing for the post of
CEO of a company. The chances of they becoming CEO are
0.2,0.3 and 0.5 respectively.
 The chances of they taking employees beneficial
decisions are 0.50,0.45 and 0.6 respectively
 What are the chances of having employees beneficial
decisions after having new CEO
 If employees beneficial decision has been taken, what is
the probability that it has been taken by A as new CEO
 Similarly, B
 Similarly, C

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BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
 Statistics

Statistics may be defined as science that is employed to

1. Collect the data
2. Present and organize the data in a systematic manner
3. Analyse the data
4. Infer about the data
5. Take decision from the data.

Statistics may be defined as numerical data with a view to

analyse it.
Main Branches of Statistics
Mean(Important measure of central tendency)
• Also referred as the “arithmetic average”
• The most commonly used measure of the center of data
• Numbers that describe what is average or typical of the
distribution
• Computation of Sample Mean:
 Y = Σ Y/ N = (Y1 + Y2 + Y3 + … Yn) / N where
Y
N “Y bar” equals the sum of all the scores, Y, divided by the
number of scores, N.
• Computation of the Mean for grouped Data
 f Y
Where f Y = a score multiplied by its frequency
Y 
N

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The Standard Deviation(Important measure of dispersion)
• Most common and most important measure of variability is the
standard deviation

o A measure of the standard, or average, distance from the

mean

o Describes whether the scores are clustered closely around

the mean or are widely scattered

• Calculation differs for population and samples

• Variance is a necessary companion concept to standard deviation

but not the same concept
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 Standard Deviation(SD) = Positive Square root of variance
=sqrt(64) = 8

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Random variable Definition

A random variable is a real valued

function which is a mapping from the
sample space  to the set of real
numbers, ie., X: R. There are two
types viz.,
Discret Continuou
e s
Random variable Types of random variables

Two types of random variables

Discrete random variable:
A random variable which take on countable
numbers (may be finite or countable infinite
values) i.e., without decimal like Natural
#s, Whole #s, Integers etc.

Continuous random variable:

A random variable which take on any values
in an interval i.e., in the set of real #s
which includes, negative, positive, rational,
irrational, decimal etc
Random variable Probability distributions based
on RVs

Two types of Probability distributions

Discrete Probability Distribution:
A probability distribution based on discrete
random variable is called discrete
probability distribution.
Continuous Probability Distribution:
A probability distribution based on
continuous random variable is called
continuous probability distribution
Probability DistributionContinuous probability
distribution
An f(x) is called a probability density function of a
continuous
random variable if it satisfy the following properties

Discrete
probability
distribution
Probability DistributionExpected value and
Variance
Like mean and standard deviation are computed
to describe data measured by quantitative
variable, a similar measures viz., expected value
(mean) and variance for random variable X are
computed for describing the probability
distribution using the formula
Central measure and Measure of
Spread

E(X) E(X2) V(X)

Probability DistributionExpected value and
Variance
For a discrete random variable X with
probability mass function p(x),
Mean∨Expected value=µ=E (X )= ∑ ¿¿
over all x

𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝜎 =√ 𝑉 ( 𝑥 )
Probability DistributionExpected value and
Variance
How do you describe this probability
distribution?

𝐄 ( 𝐗 ) =𝟎+𝟎 . 𝟏𝟑+ 𝟎 .𝟒𝟎 +𝟎 . 𝟖𝟒+𝟏 . 𝟎𝟎+ 𝟎 .𝟐𝟓 +𝟎 . 𝟏𝟖=𝟐. 𝟖

𝐄 ( 𝐗 𝟐) =𝟎+ 𝟎 .𝟏𝟑 +𝟎 . 𝟖𝟎+𝟐 . 𝟓𝟐+𝟒 . 𝟎𝟎 +𝟏 .𝟐𝟓 +𝟏 . 𝟎𝟖=𝟗. 𝟏𝟖

V ( X )= E ( X 2 ) − ¿

Sd(X) = sqrt(V(x)) = sqrt(1.94)=1.39

P(X<2)=P(1)+P(0) = 0.13+0.06 = 0.19

P(X>4) = P(5)+P(6)=0.05+0.03=0.08
Probability DistributionContinuous probability
distribution

• As in case of discrete probability distribution,

the expected value E(X) and variance V(X) can
be computed for the continuous probability
distribution
∞ ∞
𝐄 ( 𝐗 ) =∫ 𝐱𝐟 ( 𝐱 ) 𝐝𝐱 𝐄 ( 𝐗 𝟐 )= ∫ 𝐱 𝟐 𝐟 ( 𝐱 ) 𝐝𝐱
−∞ −∞

𝐕 ( 𝐗 ) =𝐄 ( 𝐗 ¿ ¿ 𝟐)−( 𝐄 ( 𝐗 ) )𝟐 ¿
 Probability distribution

• Let x be a random variable with pdf given by

𝟐
𝒇 ( 𝒙)={ ¿ 𝒄 𝒙 , −𝟏 ⩽ 𝒙 ⩽ 𝟏
¿ 𝟎 , otherwise
1. Find constant ‘c’
2. Find E(x)
3. Find V(x)
4. Find
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 Binomial Distribution

A random variable ‘X’ is said to

Definition
have
Binomial distribution if its
probability mass
function is given by

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 Binomial Distribution
 Binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution.

 Binomial distribution will be applied under the following experimental

conditions
•
• 1) The number of trails (n) is finite
•
• 2) The trails are independent of each other
•
• 3) The probability of success p is constant for each trail.

• 4) Each trail results in two mutually exclusive events known as success

and failure.
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 Example

The probability that a man aged 60 years will remain

alive till 70 is 0.65.
 What is the probability that out of 10 such men at
least 7 would be alive at 70?

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Solution

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 Poisson Distribution

A random variable ‘X’ is said to

Definition
have
Poisson distribution if its
probability mass
function is given by

Poisson distribution is the discrete probability distribution of a discrete random

variable X, which has no upper bound. It is defined for non negative values of x as
follows
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Cont…

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 Mean & variance of Poisson Distribution

• Mean = E(X) =

• Variance = V(X) =

• Mean = Variance =

• SD = sqrt(variance) = sqrt()

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 Example

If the probability of a bad reaction from a certain

injection is 0.001.
 Determine the chance that out of 2000 individuals
more than two will get a bad reaction.

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Solution

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Normal Distribution

Change in Mean determines the shift in

the distribution
Change in the deviation determines the
spread of the data points
2
1 x μ 
1 -  
f(x; μ, σ 2 )  e 2 σ 

σ 2π

 = mean
 = standard deviation
 = 3.14159
e = 2.71828

This is a bell shaped curve

with different centers and
spreads depending on 
and 
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Normal Distribution

f(X) Changing μ shifts the

distribution left or right.

Changing σ increases or
decreases the spread.
σ

μ X
Properties:
1. Normal curve is bell shaped and symmetric about the mean
2. Mean = Mode = Median
3. Total area under normal curve is equal to 1
4. Normal curve approaches but never touches the x axis as it extends
farther and farther away from the mean
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BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
Standard Normal Distribution

The standard normal distribution is a normal

distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation
of 1.

z
3 2 1 0 1 2 3
X
Z

All normal distributions can be converted into the standard normal
curve by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard
deviation
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 Example:
• The average on a statistics test was 78 with a standard deviation of
8. If the test scores are normally distributed, find the probability
that a student receives a test score less than 90.

μ = 78 x - μ 90-78
z =
σ=8 σ 8 =1.5
P(x < 90)
The probability that a student
receives a test score less than
x 90 is 0.9332.
μ =78 90

P(x < 90) = P(z < 1.5) = 0.9332

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 Example:
• The average on a statistics test was 78 with a standard deviation of
8. If the test scores are normally distributed, find the probability
that a student receives a test score greater than than 85.

μ = 78
σ=8 x - μ 85-78
z= =
σ 8
P(x > 85)
=0.875 0.88
The probability that a student
x
μ =78 85 receives a test score greater
than 85 is 0.1894.

P(x > 85) = P(z > 0.88) = 0.1894

08/13/2024 SS ZG622 Software Project Management – KG Krishna 49
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 Example:
• The average on a statistics test was 78 with a standard deviation of
8. If the test scores are normally distributed, find the probability
that a student receives a test score between 60 and 80.

P(60 < x < 80)

μ = 78
σ=8

x
The probability that a student
60 μ =78 80
receives a test score between
60 and 80 is 0.5865.
P(60 < x < 80) = P(2.25 < z < 0.25) = 0.5865
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 Sampling

 Sampling is a method or process of selecting samples from populations.

 Data are gathered from samples and conclusions are drawn about the
population as a part of the inferential statistics process

 A sample provides a reasonable means for gathering useful decision-

making information that might be otherwise unattainable and
unaffordable.

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Sampling Distribution-Z distribution

Sampling distribution is a set of collection of all calculated values of a statistic where

each value is obtained from each sample of a total possible random samples each of
size n that can be taken from a population. The sampling distribution follows
probability distribution.

Central Limit Theorem (CLT):

If is the mean of a sample size n taken from a population having the mean and the
finite variance , then Z = is a random variable whose distribution approaches to
standard normal distribution as n.

Note: Central limit theorem is better applicable if the sample size n>=25 but in
general for n>=30.

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Example

The time at the counter for a customer to be served at a post office can be modelled as a random variable having
mean 176 seconds and variance 256 (seconds)2. The sample mean will be obtained from the times for a random
sample of 100 customers. What is the probability that will be between 175 and 178 seconds?
Solution
Given , implies , n = 100 (>30)
Then by using CLT, Z = = = is a standard normal variable.
The probability that will be between 175 and 178 seconds is
P(175< =
P( < Z < ) =
P(-0.625<Z<1.25) = F(1.25)-F(-0.625) = 0.8944-0.2659 (Taken from the table of CDF values of standard normal
distribution) =0.6285

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Exact Sampling Distributions (Small
Sampling Distributions)
t- Distribution
Let (x1, x2, …,xn) be a small sample drawn at random from a normal population with mean
and un-known variance .
Let be the sample mean which is the estimator of population mean and be the sample
variance which is the estimator of population variance.
Then the distribution of has the mean E = and variance V = = (since, is not known then it
is replaced by its estimator and SE= = .
Then the statistic t = is a random variable follows Student’s t distribution with
(n-1) degree of freedom (parameter)where .
t distribution is symmetric distribution. It is symmetric at mean 0 and variance greater than
unity (= / -2)). t distribution behaves similar to standard normal distribution.

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(degrees of freedom  =n-k is the difference between ‘n’ the sample size
and k is the number of population parameters which are calculated using
the sample data).

The t – distribution curve is symmetric about the mean zero, unimodal, bell
shaped and asymptotic on both sides of t-axis .

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BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
Example

A random sample of size 25 from a normal population has the mean =47.5 and the standard deviation S = 8.4. Does
this information tend to support or refute the claim that the mean of the population = 42.1?
Solution
Given n = 25, =47.5, S = 8.4, = 42.1
Then = 5.4/1.68 = 3.21
From Table of t distribution we observe,
P(=0.005 which is the area of between 2.797 and Then P(< 0.005 since the area of between 3.21 and is less than
that of the area between 2.797 and as it is known that 2.797<3.21<.
Therefore, P(< 0.005 tends to refute(reject) the claim that the mean of the population = 42.1

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 Chi-Square Distribution
Sampling distribution of the variance
A random variable having Chi – square distribution (  2 -
distribution ) This is related to gamma distribution.

Theorem - If S2 is the variance of a random sample of

size n taken from a normal population having the variance
 2 then
n 2
2  ( X  X )
2 ( n  1) s i 1 i
 = 
2 2
is a random variable having the  2 - distribution with
parameter  n  1 degrees of freedom
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In the table we can see values of  2 for various values
of  (degrees of freedom) where  2 is such that the
area under the Chi – square distribution to its right is equal
to  .

The Chi – square distribution is not symmetrical .

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Chi-
square
table

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 Chi-
square
table

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 Example

An optical firm purchases glass to be ground into lenses ,

and it is known from past experience that the variance of the
refractive index of this kind of glass is 1.26 .10-4. As it is
important that the various pieces of glass have nearly the
same index of refraction, the firm rejects such a shipment if
the sample variance of 20 pieces selected at random exceeds
2.00.10-4 .
Assuming that the sample values may be looked upon as a
random sample from a normal population , what is the
probability that a shipment will be rejected even though
 2 = 1.26 .10-4 ?

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Solution
n
 ( X i  X )2
Using  2 statistic , we get  2 = (n  1)s 2
i 1
2 2

19(2.00.10  4)
=  30.2
1.26.10 4

And we could see from  2 table that for 19 degrees of

freedom ,
 2 0.05 = 30.1
Thus the probability that a good shipment will be rejected
is less than 0.05

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F distribution

Let (x1, x2, …, xn1) be a small sample drawn at random from a normal
population with mean (un-known) and variance
Let be the sample mean which is the estimator of population mean and be
the sample variance which is the estimator of population variance1
Let (y1, y2, …, yn2) be a small sample drawn at random from another
independent normal population with mean (un-known) and variance
Let be the sample mean which is the estimator of population mean and be
the sample variance which is the estimator of population variance.
Also assume 1==

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A random variable having the F - distribution
Theorem

If S 2 and S 2 are the variances of independent random

1 2
samples of size n1 and n2, respectively, taken from two
normal populations having the same variance, then
s2
F = 1 is a random variable having the F-distribution
s2
2
with the parameters  = n1-1 and  = n2 -1.
1 2

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BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
F Values for ® = 0:05
d1
d2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1 161.4 199.5 215.7 224.6 230.2 234.0 236.8 238.9 240.5

2 18.51 19.00 19.16 19.25 19.3 19.33 19.35 19.37 19.38

3 10.13 9.55 9. 28 9.12 9.01 8.94 8.89 8.85 8.81

4 7.71 6.94 6.59 6.39 6.26 6.16 6.09 6.04 6.00

5 6.61 5.79 5.41 5.19 5.05 4.95 4.88 4.82 4.77

6 5.99 5.14 4.76 4.53 4.39 4.28 4.21 4.15 4.10

7 5.59 4.74 4.35 4.12 3.97 3.87 3.79 3.73 3.68

8 5.32 4.46 4.07 3.84 3.69 3.58 3.50 3.44 3.39

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9 5.12 4.26 3.86 3.63 3.48 3.37 3.29 3.23 3.18

10 4.96 4.10 3.71 3.48 3.33 3.22 3.14 3.07 3.02

11 4.84 3.98 3.59 3.36 3.20 3.09 3.01 2.95 2.90

12 4.75 3.89 3.49 3.26 3.11 3.00 2.91 2.85 2.80

13 4.67 3.81 3.41 3.18 3.03 2.92 2.83 2.77 2.71

14 4.60 3.74 3.34 3.11 2.96 2.85 2.76 2.70 2.65

15 4.54 3.68 3.29 3.06 2.90 2.79 2.71 2.64 2.59

16 4.49 3.63 3.24 3.01 2.85 2.74 2.66 2.59 2.54

17 4.45 3.59 3.20 2.96 2.81 2.70 2.61 2.55 2.49

18 4.41 3.55 3.16 2.93 2.77 2.66 2.58 2.51 2.46

19 4.38 3.52 3.13 2.90 2.74 2.63 2.54 2.48 2.42

20 4.35 3.49 3.10 2.87 2.71 2.60 2.51 2.45 2.39

21 4.32 3.47 3.07 2.84 2.68 2.57 2.49 2.42 2.37

22 4.30 3.44 3.05 2.82 2.66 2.55 2.46 2.40 2.34

23 4.28 3.42 3.03 2.80 2.64 2.53 2.44 2.37 2.32

24 4.26 3.40 3.01 2.78 2.62 2.51 2.42 2.36 2.30

25 4.24 3.39 2.99 2.76 2.60 2.49 2.40 2.34 2.28

26 4.23 3.37 2.98 2.74 2.59 2.47 2.39 2.32 2.27

27 4.21 3.35 2.96 2.73 2.57 2.46 2.37 2.31 2.25
28 4.20 3.34 2.95 2.71 2.56 2.45 2.36 2.29 2.24
29 4.18 3.33 2.93 2.70 2.55 2.43 2.35 2.28 2.22
30 4.17 3.32 2.92 2.69 2.53 2.42 2.33 2.27 2.21
40 4.08 3.23 2.84 2.61 2.45 2.34 2.25 2.18 2.12
60 4.00 3.15 2.76 2.53 2.37 2.25 2.17 2.10 2.04
120 3.92 3.07 2.68 2.45 2.29 2.17 2.09 2.02 1.96
inf 3.84 3.00 2.60 2.37 2.21 2.10 2.01 1.94 1.88

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Then the statistic F = / follows F distribution with [(n1-1), (n2-1)] degrees of
freedom.
Example: If two independent random samples of size n1=7 and n2=13 are
taken from a normal population. What is the probability that the variance of
the first sample will be at least 3 times as large as that of the second
sample?
Solution: To Find P( ) = P(
= P(F ) = P(F([(n1-1), (n2-1)] ) =
P(F(6,12) ) = 0.05 observed from F tables.

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 Practice Problems

Q1. A total of 28 percent of American males smoke cigarettes, 7 percent

smoke cigars, and 5 percent smoke both cigars and cigarettes. What
percentage of males smoke neither cigars nor cigarettes?

Q2. If two fair dice are rolled, what is the probability that sum of the
numbers appearing is 9, given that at least one 4 appears?

Q3. An insurance company believes that people can be divided into two
classes - those that are accident prone and those that are not. Their
statistics show that an accident-prone person will have an accident at some
time within a fixed 1-year period with probability 0.4, whereas this
probability decreases to 0.2 for a non-accident-prone person. If we assume
that 30 percent of the population is accident prone, what is the probability
that a new policy holder will have an accident within a year of purchasing a
policy?

Q4. Suppose X has the following probability mass function p(0) = 0.2, p(1) =
0.5, p(2) = 0.3. Calculate E[X2].
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Q5. If the probability is 0.05 that a certain wide-flange column will fail under
a given axial load, what are the probabilities that among 16 such columns
(a) At most two will fail
(b) At least four will fail

Q6. Compute Mean and Variance of X, when X represents the outcome

when we roll a fair die.

Q7. Average income of a group of employees in a company is Rs.12,000 with

standard deviation of Rs. 1,100. Find the percentage of employees earning –
i) Between Rs. 9,000 and 11,000
ii) More than Rs. 13,000
iii) Less than Rs. 10,000

Q8. Average IQ of a class is 120 with a variance 64. Find -

i) Minimum score of the 3% students who have a higher IQ.
ii) Maximum score of the 5% students who have a lower IQ.
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Q9. A fair die is rolled. If even number appears then a coin is flipped. Find
the probability of getting an even number.

Q10. In a town on an average 10 accidents occur within a span of 50 days.

Assuming the no. of accidents per day follow Poisson distribution, find the
probability that there will be 3 or more accidents in a day. (Note : e =
2.7183)

Q11. Using normal probabilities to determine the mean fill of jars -

The actual amount of instant coffee that a filling machine puts into “4-
ounce” jars may be looked upon as a random variable having a normal
distribution with σ = 0.04 ounce. If only 2 % of the jars are to contain less
than 4 ounces, what should be the mean fill of these jars ?

Q12. Suppose the probability that an item produced by a certain machine

will be defective is 0.1. Find the probability that a sample of 10 items will
contain at most one defective item. Assume that the quality of successive
items is independent.
BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956
Q13. A fair die is rolled. If even number appears then a coin is flipped. Draw
the probability tree and find the probability of getting -
(i) An even number & Tail.
(ii) 6 and Head
(iii) 3 and Head.

BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956

Thanks

BITS Pilani, Deemed to be University under Section 3 of UGC Act, 1956