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Week 1
Introduction to Economic Principles
What is economics? • Economics is the study of the allocation of scarce resources to meet unlimited human wants • ____________________ – is concerned with decision-making by individual economic agents such as firms and consumers (*cough cough* this class *cough cough*) • ____________________ – is concerned with the aggregate performance of the entire economic system • ____________________– relies upon facts to present a description of economic activity • ____________________– relies upon principles to analyze behavior of economic agents Assumptions • Economic models of human behavior are built upon ____________ that permit rigorous analysis of real world events without _____________________ • Model building – models are abstractions from reality • Occam’s Razor – the best model is the one that best describes reality and is the simplest • Simplifications • “Ceteris paribus” __________________________________ • There are problems with assumptions • Too simple – the models are inconsistent with observed reality - therefore they are faulty and require modification • Too complex – the model cannot be easily communicated or its implications easily understood Is economics useful? • Economics provides an objective mode or analysis • _____________________ • Economists use rigorous models that are predictive of human behavior • Scientific approach • _________________ logic – creates principles for observation • _________________ logic – hypothesis is formulated and tested Positive vs Normative • _________________ economics – is concerned with what is • “The current unemployment rate is 20%.” • _________________ economics – is concerned with what should be • “The unemployment rate should not exceed 5%.” Try to sort these statements • “Health expenditure accounts for 25% of the budget.” _______________ • “A higher carbon emissions tax should be implemented to combat climate change.” _______________ • “Inflation this year was 3%.” _______________ • “The increase in the minimum wage has shown a negative correlation with the employment rate in various empirical studies.” _______________ • “The government should increase spending on education to improve the quality of life of the population.” _______________ • “A country’s economic growth is positively correlated with the level of investment in human capital.” _______________ • “Defense spending should not exceed 10% of the budget.” _______________ • “Social services expenditure should not be more than 40% of the national income.” _______________ The Economic Problem • The economic problem involves the allocation of resources among competing wants • The economic problem exists because there is scarcity • Scarcity arises because of two facts 1. there are __________________________________ 2. there are __________________________________ available to meet those wants • Scarcity exists because we do not have sufficient resources to produce everything we want • Rivalry • Goods/resources are considered __________________________________ if one agent consuming the good/resource _______________ another agent’s ability to use that good/resource • Example: • If I eat the last piece of cheesecake, my sister can’t eat it • The cheesecake is a rival good #SiblingRivalry Economic Resources • _________ - includes space (i.e., location), natural resources, and what is commonly thought of as land • _________ is paid rent • _________ - are the physical assets used in production - i.e., plant and equipment • _________ is paid interest • _________ - is the skills, abilities, knowledge (called human capital) and the effort exerted by people in production • _________ is paid wages • _________ _________ - (risk taker) the economic agent who creates the enterprise • _________ _________ is paid profits • _________ - a manner in which resources are combined to produce commodities Core Principles of Economics • The Cost-Benefit Principle • The Opportunity Cost Principle • The Marginal Principle • The Interdependence Principle The Cost-Benefit Principle • Cost-benefit principle – costs and benefits are the incentives that shape decisions • Before you make a decision… • Evaluate the ________________________________ associated with that choice • Pursue that choice only if ____________________________________ • Example: You’re hungry and are considering buying a granola bar from a vending machine after class. The granola bar costs $2. • Do you decide to buy the granola bar? • Dilemma: How do you compare the benefit with the costs? • Solution: Convert costs and benefits into dollars by evaluating your _______________________________ Willingness to Pay • Willingness to pay – to convert nonfinancial costs or benefits into their monetary equivalent, ask yourself: “What is the most I am willing to pay to get this benefit (or avoid that cost)?” • Helpful Hint: Do not confuse “__________________” with “__________________” when doing this conversion • Using money and the measuring stick allows you to take into account the __________________ and __________________ costs and benefits of a decision • Example Continued: The benefit of the granola bar depends on how delicious it is to you • Let’s say you are willing to pay up to $3 for the granola bar • Costs: $2 • Benefits: $3 • Decision: buy the granola bar • Take-away: Using the cost-benefit principle, we see the benefits exceed the costs, which is why you buy the granola bar • In cost-benefit analysis, money is the __________________, not the __________________ Economic Surplus • Economic surplus – the __________________ minus the __________________ flowing from a decision • __________________ = __________________ – __________________ • It measures how much a decision has improved an agent’s well-being • The cost-benefit principle allows us to __________________ our economic surplus • Example continued: You bought for yourself a granola bar • You gained something worth $3 to you (the granola bar) in exchange for something only worth $2 (your money) • This exchange generated an extra $1 worth of benefits to you • This $1 is your economic surplus Framing Effects • Framing effect – when a decision is affected by how a choice is described or framed • You should __________________ framing effects altering your own decisions • Framing Effect Example: • When an item’s price tag shows both the original price and the sale price • Your choice should depend on the costs and benefits of that item — not on something irrelevant, like how much the item cost in the past Focus on the costs and benefits, not how they are framed • As CEO, you need to cut costs • Your current plan is to lay off 6,000 employees • You assemble a team to brainstorm alternative options • Plan A: Saves 2,000 jobs with 100% certainty • Plan B: Has a 1/3 chance of saving all 6,000 jobs but a 2/3 chance of saving no jobs at all • Which plan would you vote for? Focus on the costs and benefits, not how they are framed • As CEO, you need to cut costs • Your current plan is to lay off 6,000 employees • You assemble a team to brainstorm alternative options • Plan 1: Results in the certain loss of 4,000 jobs • Plan 2: Has a 2/3 chance of losing all 6,000 jobs but a 1/3 chance of losing no jobs • Which plan would you vote for? Focus on the costs and benefits, not how they are framed • What did you notice? The Cost-Benefit Principle: Summary • Evaluate the full set of benefits and costs for any given choice: • Pursue the choice if the ____________________________________ • How much am I willing to pay to enjoy this benefit (or avoid this cost)? • “Full set” consider both __________________ and __________________ aspects • Avoid being led astray by __________________ The Opportunity Cost Principle • Allocations of resources imply that decisions __________________, which in turn involves choice • Every choice is costly; there is always the lost alternative the opportunity cost • Opportunity cost - the next best alternative that must be foregone as a result of a particular decision • Focus on the __________________ associated with a particular option • What did you give up to pursue this option? Opportunity Cost Example • You have a 1-hour break between classes. You have many ways you could spend this time: • Hang out with friends • Work on homework • Take a nap • Watch something on Netflix • Whatever you choose to do, you are implicitly choosing not to do something else • That’s your opportunity cost Opportunity Cost Example: Analysis • Suppose you rank the options as follows: 1. Work on homework 2. Hang out with friends 3. Watch something on Netflix 4. Take a nap • Given the ranking above, you would choose to work on homework for the hour in between classes. • What was the opportunity cost of your choice? Opportunity Cost Example: Analysis • What did you give up by working on homework in between classes? • Answer: __________________________________ • Helpful Hint: The opportunity cost of working on homework is not _______________________________________ • Rather, the opportunity cost is your ____________________________________ • Ask yourself, “__________________” • Should I work on homework ___________________________ • Your answer to “________________” is the opportunity cost of the option under consideration Opportunity Costs: Trade-offs are inescapable • Every choice involves a trade-off; every choice has a cost • Why? Because __________________ • __________________ - resources are limited; therefore, any resources you spend pursuing one activity leaves fewer resources to pursue others • Limited __________________ – what could I spend my money on instead? • Limited __________________ – there are only 24 hours in a day (we all have a time-budget) • Limited __________________________________ – people need rest… • Limited __________________________________ – what else could be produced with this machinery and labor? Calculating Opportunity Cost: Example • Consider the costs of going to grad school or working full time Graduate School Working Full time Opportunity Cost • Tuition/Books costs • No tuition/book costs • __________________ • $60,000 • Quit current job • You earn $70,000 • __________________ • Apartment/food costs • Apartment/food costs • __________________ • $24,000 • $24,000 • __________________ • 10 hours/day studying • 10 hours/day working
Total opportunity cost per year of going to graduate school = __________________
What counts as an opportunity cost? • Some out-of-pocket costs • The $60,000 tuition is an out-of-pocket financial cost, and also an opportunity cost • Wouldn’t have had this expense if you continued working full time • Not all out-of-pocket costs • The $24,000 spent on apartment and food is spent either way, and therefore is not an opportunity cost of attending school • Non-out-of-pocket financial costs • The $70,000 salary you forgo by not working is not something you pay directly, but it is money that you give up, and thus is an opportunity cost • Not all time costs (nonfinancial) • You do not count all 10 hours of study time as an opportunity cost since your job requires 10 hours of your time • Thus, relative to your next best alternative, the time spent studying is not an opportunity cost of school How entrepreneurs think about opportunity cost • The opportunity cost principle allows entrepreneurs to evaluate whether or not to start a business: • Should you start a new business, or stay in your existing job? • If you quit your current job, you are giving up the paycheck that comes with it • Forgone wages are an opportunity cost • Should you invest your money in this new business, or leave it in the bank (or the stock market)? • If you take your money out of the bank (or stock market), then you will not be earning interest on that money • This forgone interest (or the forgone investment opportunity) is an opportunity cost associated with starting your new business Sunk Costs • Sunk cost – a cost that has been incurred and cannot be reversed Good decision makers __________________ sunk costs • __________________ incorporate past, irreversible costs into your current cost-benefit analysis • Sunk costs are irrelevant to the current decision at hand because these costs are associated with every alternative moving forward Sunk Cost: Example • You bought a movie ticket for $12 • Within the first 30 minutes, you realize the movie is horrible • Question: Do you continue watching the movie, or leave? • Answer: __________________ • ______________________________________________________________ • ______________________________________________________________ Production Possibilities Frontier • Production Possibilities Frontier (PPF) – shows the different sets of output that are attainable with your scarce resources • The PPF illustrates the trade-offs you confront when deciding how to allocate your scarce resources (like your time) Example: You have 3 hours per night of study time for economics and/or psychology • 1 hour toward econ 8-point boost in grade • 1 hour toward psych 4-point boost in grade Production Possibilities Frontier Moving along your PPF reveals your opportunity costs • Every hour you devote to studying psychology is one less hour you can devote toward economics Visualizing the Opportunity Cost: • For example, moving from point A to B along the PPF you see that to gain 4 points in psychology, you had to sacrifice 8 points in economics • The opportunity cost of adding 4 points to your psychology grade is earning 8 fewer points in economics Production Possibilities Frontier Any allocation of time such that you are on your PPF is an efficient use of your resources (A, B, C) • All 3 hours of study time are being used • No time is being wasted Any allocation of time such that you are below your PPF is an inefficient use of your resources • At points marked with an X, time is being wasted (not all 3 hours are being used) You can only reach a point above your original PPF (N) if you increase your productivity in some way (new study techniques) • Otherwise, points beyond your PPF would be unattainable The Opportunity Cost Principle: Summary • The opportunity cost is the most valuable alternative you had to give up to pursue your choice • Even if the choice has _________________________, there is ____________ a cost because every choice has an __________________ associated with it • __________________ makes opportunity costs (trade-offs) inescapable • Good decision makers ______________________________________ • The _________________________________ can be used to visualize the opportunity costs we face The Marginal Principle • Marginal Principle – decisions about quantities are best made incrementally • You should break “__________________” questions into a series of smaller, or __________________, decisions weighing the marginal benefits and marginal costs • __________________ – the extra benefit from one extra unit (of goods purchased, hours studied, etc.) • __________________ – the extra cost from one extra unit Quantity Decisions • Instead of: “how many workers should I hire?” • Simplify to: “Should I hire __________________ worker?” • Apply the cost-benefit principle to this marginal decision to answer the question “should I hire __________________ worker?” • What are the extra benefits of hiring __________________ worker? — marginal benefit • What are the extra costs of hiring __________________ worker? — marginal cost • Hire the additional worker if the marginal benefit exceeds the marginal cost Which decisions are marginal decisions? • How many slices of pizza should I eat? • ___________________ • How many classes should I take this semester? • ___________________ • Should I attend class? • ___________________ • How many hours should I spend watching Netflix? • ___________________ • Should I go to the gym? • ___________________ • How many reps should I do? • ___________________ 34 Visualizing the Marginal Principle • Determine what type of choice you face • If it is a “how many?” decision • break it down into a series of smaller marginal decisions (“should I buy one more?”) • Weigh the marginal benefits against the marginal costs • __________________ applied to a marginal decision • Apply the marginal principle iteratively until you eventually decide against buying one more unit, and then stop The Marginal Principle and the Rational Rule • Whenever the benefits of a choice exceed the cost, it is a good choice cost-benefit principle • When you do marginal analysis, you iteratively apply cost-benefit to figure out if “__________________” is a good choice • __________________– if something is worth doing, keep doing it MB = MC until your marginal benefits equal your marginal costs • Connecting Concepts: • Every additional unit you acquire using the marginal principle will increase your economic surplus • Recall: economic surplus = benefits – costs • Economic surplus is __________________ when the marginal benefit equals the marginal cost • If you follow the marginal principle, then every unit you end up buying will be “__________________” Using the rational rule to maximize your economic surplus You decide to open a restaurant How many workers should you hire? Benefits of an additional worker: Costs of an additional worker: • You can prepare and serve more meals, which • An additional worker means additional wages brings in additional revenue must be paid • You can sell each meal for $25: • $300 a week per additional worker • Revenue = $25 x meals served • Additional meals will require you to purchase additional ingredients • $10 per additional meal Other relevant costs: • Your rent costs $500 per week • The opportunity cost of your time is $1,000 per week Running a Restaurant: Costs and Benefits of an Additional Worker Marginal Total Costs Profit or Number Total Benefits Marginal Meals Benefit ($10 per meal + Economic of (revenue = $25 $300 per waiter Cost Served (change in + $500 rent + (change in total Surplus Workers number of meals) total benefit) $1,000 for your cost) (total benefits less time) total costs)
2 160 $4,000 $3,700
3 210 $5,250 $4,500 4 250 $6,250 $5,200 5 280 $7,000 $5,800 6 300 $7,500 $6,300 7 310 $7,750 $6,700 38 The Marginal Principle: Summary • The marginal principle tells you to break “how many” decisions into a series of smaller, marginal decisions • If the marginal benefit __________________ the marginal cost, then buy that additional unit MB = MC • Continue to buy additional units as long as the marginal benefit is at least as large as the marginal cost (__________________) • __________________ when the marginal benefit equals the marginal cost • Economic surplus is __________________ when marginal benefit equals marginal cost The Interdependence Principle • Interdependence principle: Your best choice depends on… • your __________________ choices • the choices __________________ • developments in __________________ • and __________________ about the __________________ • When any of these factors changes, your best choice might change • You are not making decisions in __________________ • You are part of a larger network • Rivalry Dependence between each of your individual choices • Your own choices are all __________________ because you have __________________ resources: • Your decision on how much to spend on movies will impact how often you can eat out because you have limited income • Your decision on how much time to dedicate to studying economics affects the time available for studying psychology because you have limited time • Because you only have one oven (i.e., you have limited production capacity), you may not be able to prepare the main dish, and all the side dishes for dinner tonight Dependence between economic actors • The choices made by __________________________ (people, businesses, governments, etc.) shape the choices available to you: • If Microsoft hires the most talented software engineers in Seattle, then there will be fewer talented people available for other Seattle-based tech companies to hire • If your friends all have chosen to buy iPhones, you may also want to buy an iPhone to maximize OS compatibility across phones • If your classmate gets hired for an internship, then your chances of getting hired at that same company have decreased Dependence between markets • Changes in __________________ and __________________ in one __________________ affect the choices you might make in other __________________ : • Declining interest rates in the credit market make it less expensive to get a mortgage, which might lead you to buy a home in the housing market • Your decision to join the labor market as a worker depends on the availability of high-quality, low-cost child care options in the child care market Dependence through time • Is it better to act today, or tomorrow? • Should I buy gas today, or next week? • My decision depends on whether I think gas prices will fall or not next week • Should I buy a hybrid car now, or wait a few years for the technology to get even better? • Furthermore, decisions today shape future opportunities and decisions • Should I go to grad school and get my MBA? • This decision not only affects your future job opportunities but also your salary The Interdependence Principle: Summary • Optimal decisions depend on multiple factors • Dependence between each of your individual choices • Dependence between economic actors • Dependence between markets • Dependence through time Core Principles of Economics • The Cost-Benefit Principle __________________ • The Opportunity Cost Principle __________________ • The Marginal Principle __________________ • The Interdependence Principle __________________