Monitoring, Evaluation and

Learning Training for Local

Partners

Learning Project
June 2024

1
Module 2: Theory of Change
and Results Framework

2
Module 2 | Objectives

• Describe the purpose of a theory of change

• Develop a problem statement and results

framework

• Describe the logic of a results framework

3
Theory of Change (TOC)
What is a TOC?
• Logic underpinning your Activity
– links your activities to your outputs, outcomes
and overarching goal.
• Provides a narrative and visual
description of how and why a given
change or result is expected to happen.
• Includes a “change hypothesis”
– if … Then…
• Can include more than the “if…
then…” statement!

4
Why is the TOC
important?
• Is the foundation and structure for MEL.
• Serves as a roadmap toward change (identifying when and
where things are or are not going as planned)
• Helps stakeholders clearly identify outcomes, inputs, and
activities
• Creates a common understanding of results and how to
measure them
• Identifies assumptions and risks

5
Key criteria for a well-developed
ToC
1. Based on research and context – identify the problem.
2. Reflects sound causal (if-then) thinking.
3. Has well-designed results statements.
4. Identifies the critical assumptions that affect
achievement of the results.
5. Depicts an Activity that can be implemented and can
achieve the expected results.

6
TOC | Research and
Context
• ToC should be based on current
information and analysis.
• It is important to have an
understanding of country context,
sector, main stakeholders, past trends
and current/past challenges and
successes.

7
Problem Identification and
Analysis
What is the primary problem this
Activity is trying to address given the Problem Tree
Analysis
context?
How can we start to understand the
problem well enough to think about 5 Why’s
solutions?
• Assessment or data collection—
including secondary sources and Fishbone
experts! Analysis
• Get different perspectives on the
problem for a fuller understanding,
including those you may work with 8
Theory of Change
1. First, we identify the problem you are trying to solve
2. Then, we describe how to solve the problem through a
series of “if-then” statements.
Example:
Problem: Malaria morbidity is high.
If the Activity conducts malaria education and distributes
insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs,) then more people will
sleep under bed nets.
AND
If people sleep under ITNs, then there will be fewer cases
of malaria.
9
TOC | Causal Logic
Activities are based on Hypotheses, which is
presented by the theory of change.

Almost every activity design contains definite

ideas about causal relationships

If A, then B
• IF we train teachers, THEN children will learn more
• IF we vaccinate children, THEN there will be fewer deaths
• IF we monitor elections, THEN there will be fewer
irregularities
10
TOC | The Logic Model
• Represents the TOC through a graphic display of the cause-
effect relationships among interrelated results
• Most common at USAID: Results Framework.

Objective

Intermediate Intermediat Intermediat

Result e Result e Result

Sub Intermediate Sub Intermediate

Result Result
11
TOC | Causal Logic
Chain
Goal: The activity may have a
broader impact on the community
Then.
.
Outcomes: Improved skills or change
If…
practices, access or behaviours

cto d
Then

l fa an
rs
… Services improve knowledge,
Outputs:

na ns
If… Implementation, or support….

ter tio
ex ump
Then…
Inputs:.The activity provides a certain

s
As
If. set of services…(e.g. trainings)
.

12
Building a Results Framework
(RF)
What is the single most Goal
important change that
could affect that problem
for the better?

THEN
Outcom Outcom
How can we make e e

IF
that change happen?
WHAT ELSE?

Keep going down

for other levels!

13
Results Framework
What we Goal
contribute to

THEN
What we Outcom Outcom
achieve e e

IF
What we get Output Output Output Output

WHAT ELSE?

14
Developing the RF: Starting the
Causal Logic
✔ From the goal, ASK: Increased employment
HOW do you
increase
among targeted HHs employment?
“How will the goal be
BY increasing
achieved?” access to jobs
Improved access to
jobs
✔ From the next result level, HOW do you
improve access
ASK: to jobs??

Improved skills
BY improving the
“How will this result be among targeted skills of potential
youth
achieved? employees –
maybe youth?

✔ Work downward from higher

level results to the sub-
results and continue until you
identify the outputs and
activities.
Developing the RF: Necessary and Sufficient

• At each level in the chain, Increased employment

among targeted HHs
we ASK:
Improved access
• WHAT ELSE is needed to to jobs

achieve the higher-level

result?
?? Improved skills
??
among targeted
• Are all the necessary youth

results and sufficient to

achieve the higher-level
outcome?
RF |
Example
….Then
… Increased use of quality
health services

IF…. Increase access And Improve quality And Increase care-

. to health services … of services … seeking and
health-promoting
behavior

Expand
Improve
Expanded Increase Increase Improved health
health
services healthcare adoption of skills of promotion
education
offered at facilities in technologi healthcar al
in schools
health rural areas es in e campaign
facilities facilities workers s

17
What do you think of this
logic?
POOR: BETTER:
Example of a Example of a stronger
“definitional” relationship causal relationship
Goal: Institutional
Goal: Institution
performance
Strengthened
improved

Outcome: Institutional
Outcome: Institutional skills for delivering
capacity to deliver goods
goods and services
and services improved
improved

18
Common Pitfalls | Large Causal
Gaps
Large “causal gaps” from one level in the causal
hierarchy to the next
Improved Student
Performance at the Increased use of
Primary Level renewable
energy
Adoption of
Teachers adopting technologies by
curriculum??? governments or private
sector???

Increased capacity of the Improved renewable

MOE to design and develop energy technology
classroom curricula

19
What do you think of this
logic?
POOR: BETTER:
Example of a Example of a stronger
“categorical” causal relationship
relationship
Goal: More effective Goal: More effective
management of the management of the
natural resource base natural resource base

Outcome 1: Outcome 2:
Outcome 2: More
Outcome 1: More Institutional National
effective
effective capacity of Environment
management of
management of Ministry of Plan
the coastal
the forests Environment implemented
resources
increased

20
Result Statements

21
What is a Result
Statement?

• Theory of change is made of A result statement is not:

different results statements • An activity or process.
• Communicates the intended
and measurable change in the • A combination of several
activity seeks to achieve results.
• Results are objectives, outputs
and outcomes • Abstract or vague.
Processes vs. Results
Beware of confusing different activities with their
desired end-result.
Expert technical Improved policy and
assistance regulatory framework

Training Increased skills

Delivery of Increased availability

medicine of medicine

23
 Results Statements
When developing results statements, use strong, action-
completed verbs:

Built Constructed Reduced

Improved Increased Established

Strong Weak

Coordinate Participate Organize

Support Advise
Collaborate Contribute Assist Integrate
Characteristics of Good Results
Statements
Clear Result Statements (State what will be achieved, not what processes
or activities will be undertaken or completed).
a) Drafted new environmental regulations
b) Approved new environmental regulations

Unidimensional (not a combination of results)

c) Employed, better educated youth
d) Youth’s ability to secure a job after graduation improved

Can be materially affected by USAID and its partners

e) Promote understanding between Africa and the U.S.
f) Mutual understanding among participants increased

25
 Characteristics of Good Results
Statements
Focused on strategic commitments
a) Improved access to justice in Ethiopia
b) Improved policy on worker’s protection in Ethiopia

Precise (don’t be vague): Don’t force the reader of the result to look
to the context to see what is intended by the result.
c) Improved capacity of Ministry of Energy (MOE)
d) Improved skills of MOE staff in renewable energy project management

Measurable:
e) Improved leadership by local government officials.
f) Increased access to local government officials by community members

26
Critical Assumptions

27
Critical Assumptions (CAs) and
Risks
Assumptions and risks are
Project
inversely related.
Goal CA
• Critical assumptions are external s
conditions that are necessary for success,
but project implementers have little or no Outcom Outcom
control over. e e
• Risks are events/situations of uncertainty
that could block the pathway to change if
they occur.
• Assumptions define the risks inherent in Sub Sub
the hypothesis that links results in the Outcome Outcome
strategy.
Choosing Assumptions
• If they are likely to hold true, don’t include them (then
they’re not an assumption!)
• If they are a potential risk, do include them.
• Avoid killer assumptions that make Activity implementation
impossible!

29
Critical Assumptions and Risks |
Examples
Critical Assumptions Risk to project
Agriculture prices remain relatively Due to increased food prices, households will
stable over the life of the project need to earn more money to feed family

Caregivers can find daycare for their Daycare is not available or affordable for
children if offered a job outside of the targeted women which could limit their
home participate in project trainings
Private businesses have capacity to Businesses lack staff or leadership to
adopt new labor laws implement laws might not be able to adopt
them into practice

• Can the activity be designed to mitigate

these risks?
• Are any of these killer assumptions?
Logical Framework / Logframe
• This is another type of logic model.
• It is commonly presented in matrix form
• The matrix contains narrative summary (project/Activity
objectives), indicators, data sources and assumptions.

31
Types of Logic Models: Logical FW

32
When to Update the ToC
• As a result of a pause & reflect sessions, mid-term
evaluation, or other learning
• Contextual changes that effects the achievement or logic
of the ToC
• Shift in activity tasks that are not aligned with the
intended results
• Original logic does not hold
– Progress is not being achieved as expected because
missing result
• Assumptions are not valid or there are new assumptions
that are critical to achieving results 33
Q&A

34
Group Exercises

35
Results framework
exercise

Group work:
• You are given two exercises related to results
framework.
• The first exercise is to reconstruct and improve a
given results framework.
• The second exercise is to construct a results
framework using the given results statements.

Time: 30 minutes
36
Exercise 1: Reconstruct and improve the below-
distorted results framework
Improved Quality
of Classroom
….The Instruction
n

More Consistent Increased Community

IF…. An volunteering in
School
. d classrooms
Attendance

Increased Increased support of

Reduced Improved Literacy
Skills and the Ministry of
Economic and Numeracy of
Knowledge of Education in teacher
Disincentives to Primary School
Teachers development
School
Attendance

Improved
Curricula and
Teaching
Materials

37
Exercise 2: Use the below results statements
and construct an acceptable results framework
Materials (flip chart, cards with results statement)

1. Improved microfinance institution agriculture loan policies

2. Improved farmer knowledge of agricultural best practice
3. Increased farmer capacity to apply for microfinance loans
4. Improved availability of investment capital for farmers
5. Increased access to high quality seeds and fertilizer
6. Increased rice production by farmers.
7. Increased use of more effective agricultural techniques

Take note of what you find difficult to construct an appropriate

results framework and suggest solutions and tell the wider
participant
38
Answer for exercise 1
is…..
Improved Literacy and
….The Numeracy of Primary
n School

More Consistent Improved Quality of

IF…. School An Classroom
. Attendance d Instruction

Reduced Increased Increased Improved

Economic Community Skills and Curricula and
Disincentives to volunteering in Knowledge of Teaching
School classrooms Teachers Materials
Attendance

Increased support of
the Ministry of
Education in teacher
development

39
Answer for exercise 2
is….
Increased rice
production by
farmers

Increased use Improved

of more availability of
effective investment
agricultural capital for
techniques farmers

Increased
Improved Improved
Increased farmer
farmer microfinance
access to high capacity to
knowledge of institution
quality seeds apply for
agricultural agriculture
and fertilizer microfinance
best practice loan policies
loans

40
Thank you!

41