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Lesson 9 Rules of Probability

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Lesson 9 Rules of Probability

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coco nat
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Module 4: Probability and Randomness

Lesson 9: Rules of Probability


Introduction to Probability Rules
• There are some basic probability relationships that can be used to
compute the probability of an event without knowledge of all the sample
point probabilities.
 Intersection of Two Events
 Union of Two Events
 Complement of an Event
 Conditional Probability
Intersection of Two Events
• The intersection of events A and B is the set of all sample points that
are in both A and B.
• The intersection of events A and B is denoted by A∩B.

• For mutually exclusive or disjoined events.

P(A∩B) = 0
Union of Two Events
• The union of events A and B is the event containing all sample points
that are in A or B or both.
• The union of events A and B is denoted by A∪B.
• The probability of the union of two events can be found with the addition
rule:
P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)

• If two events, say A and B, are mutually exclusive - that is A and B have
no outcomes in common, then P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)
Complement of an Event
• The complement of an event A is defined to be the event consisting of
all sample points that are not in A, complement of an event is the event
not occurring.
• The complement of A is denoted by Ac.
• The Venn diagram below illustrates the concept of a complement.

A∪Ac = S
P(A) + P(Ac) = 1
P(Ac) = 1 – P(A)
Example 1
Consider the following sample space: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
and the events
A = even numbers B = greater than 5
Find Ac, A∩B, A∪B, and its probabilities.
Solution:
A = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10} B = {6, 7, 8, 9,10}
a. Ac = 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 P(Ac) = = 0.25

b. A∩B = 6, 8, 10 P(A∩B) = = 0.3

c. A∪B = 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 (no repetition)


A∪B = 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 7, 9 P(A∪B) = = 0.7
or using the formula P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B) = + - = = 0.7
Conditional Probability
• The probability of an event given that another event has occurred is
called a conditional probability.
• The conditional probability of A given B is denoted by P(A|B).
• A conditional probability is computed as follows :
Example 2
The probability that it is Friday and that a student is absent is 0.03. Since there
are 5 school days in a week, the probability that it is Friday is or 0.2. What is the
probability that a student is absent given that today is Friday, P(Friday|absent)?

Solution:
P(Friday|absent) = = = 0.15
Refences
• Lindstrom, D. (2010). Schaum’s Easy Outline of Statistics, Second Edition (Schaum’s Easy
Outlines) 2nd Edition. McGraw-Hill Education
• Wheelan, C. (2014). Naked Statistics. W. W. Norton & Company
• https://stats.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Introductory_Statistics/Book
%3A_Introductory_Statistics_(Shafer_and_Zhang)/03%3A_Basic_Concepts_of_Probability/
3.02%3A_Complements_Intersections_and_Unions
• https://saylordotorg.github.io/text_introductory-statistics/s07-02-complements-intersections-
and-.html
• http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/probint.htm#:~:text=P(A%20and%20B),the
%20product%20of%20the%20probabilities.
• http://www.math.wsu.edu/students/odykhovychnyi/M201-04/
Ch08_2_Union_Intersection_and_Complement_of_Event_Odds.pdf
• https://www.cuemath.com/probability-a-intersection-b-formula/
• https://opencurriculum.org/5530/unions-and-intersections/
• https://study.com/skill/learn/solving-a-word-problem-involving-the-probability-of-a-union-
explanation.html

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