Lesson 12:

Probability
Level 2
Objectives
• Understand the likelihood of events using a probability scale
• Calculate simple probability as a fraction, decimal or
percentage, including from a table
• Work out the probability of combined events including the use
of diagrams and tables, including two-way tables
• Identify and correct common misconceptions
1
INTRODUCTION
Worksheet
The line up available

What is the
probability of…
it snowing you
today? sleeping
tonight?
Choose a scenario.
Line up against the wall in order from certain to impossible according to where your scenario would
be on a probability scale.

2
DISCUSS
Probability scale

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Impossible
100% Chance 75% Chance Likely

50% Chance No Chance

Certain Even chance
Unlikely
25% Chance

3
DISCUSS
Probability

KEY IDEA
• A probability is a number showing the likelihood that
an event will occur.
• Probabilities can be expressed as decimals or
fractions between 0 and 1, or as percentages
between 0% and 100%.
• A probability of 0 indicates that an event is
impossible, while a probability of 1 means an event
is certain to happen.

4
EXPLORE
Probability of events

KEY IDEA

The probability of an event = the number of ways the event can happen
the total number of equally likely outcomes

The total probability of all possible events = 1

5
REVIEW
Football match

Emma supports her local football team, Blackburn Rovers.

On Saturday, they are playing against Manchester United.
Emma says they can either win, lose or draw. Therefore they have a 1 in 3 chance of winning.
Is she correct?

6
YOUR Worksheet
TURN Probability of events given available

No Chance 25% Chance 50% Chance 75% Chance

100% Chance

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Impossible Unlikely Even chance Likely Certain

• In pairs, discuss the probability questions you have been given.

• Decide the probability of each event happening, and place it on
the probability scale you have been given.

7
REVIEW
Dice game

In a game, there are three events for an ordinary fair dice.

• If the number is an odd number, Aisha wins a prize.

• If the number is greater than 6, Sam wins a prize.
• If the number is an even number less than 3, Sunil wins a prize.

Who is most likely to win?

Sam says,
‘The probabilities should add up to 1, so one of us is certain to win.’

Is Sam right?
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Sum of all possible events

KEY IDEA

The total probability of all possible events = 1

9
EXPLORE
Calculate probabilities from a table
Below is a table that shows the daily number of text messages sent on a
single day by members of a class of 30 people.

Number of text
Number of people
messages sent One of the people is selected at random.
0 3
1–5 3
(a) What is the probability that this person
sent fewer than 11 text messages that
6–10 7 day? How do you know?
11–15 10
16–20 5
(b) What is the probability that this person
sent more than 15 messages that day?
21+ 2
Total 30

10
EXPLORE
Who wants what?

A catering company is doing some research

to plan for the year.
They need to work out how many like each
type of food from a sample of previous
customers.
They have the following information:
• 7 aged over 18 like pizza
• 3 aged 18 & under like burgers
• 4 aged over 18 like curry
Can you organise the data so we
• 12 people in total like pizza the best
know how many of each age
• There are 30 people in the sample
group like each type of food?
• 16 of the people are over 18
11
EXPLORE
Who wants what? – Feedback

7 aged over 18 like pizza

3 aged 18 & under like burgers
4 aged over 18 old like curry
12 people in total like pizza the best
There are 30 people in the sample
16 of the people are over 18

12
DISCUSS
Who wants what? – Using a two-way table

A two-way table is an effective way of displaying and working out data:

Always
Another set of have a
info goes here: Pizza Burgers Curry Total TOTAL
age/gender/ column
nationality etc.
Row headings Over
18 7 4 16

18 and
under 3

Always have
Total 12 30
TOTAL
a TOTAL row number
at the bottom always goes
here
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EXPLORE
Two-way tables and probability
• What is the probability that a customer likes burgers?
• What is the probability that a customer is aged 18 or under?
• What is the probability of someone at an over 18s party liking burgers?

Pizza Burgers Curry Total

Over 18 7 5 4 16
18 and
5 3 6 14
under
Total 12 8 10 30

What other questions could you ask?

14
YOUR
TURN Two-way tables (1)

• 100 cars took an MOT test, and were Pass Fail Total
graded pass or fail
Make
• Two types of cars took the test – Make A A
and Make B Make
• 40 of the cars in the test achieved a pass B
• 26 of the cars from Make A received a fail Total
• 50 Make A cars took the test

Construct and complete a two-way table.

A car is selected at random from those that passed. What is the
probability that the car is Make B?

15
REVIEW
Two-way tables: class review

• 100 cars took an MOT test, and were Pass Fail Total
graded pass or fail
Make
• Both Make A and Make B cars took the 24 26 50
A
test
• 40 of the cars in the test achieved a pass Make
16 34 50
B
• 26 of the Make A cars received a fail
• 50 Make A cars took the test Total 40 60 100

A car is selected at random from those that passed. What is the

probability that the car is Make B?

Probability = 16/40
16
REVIEW
Practice question (1) Worksheet
available

Alex has two sets of four cards. (a) Complete the table.
He writes a number on each card.
Alex says,
Alex picks one card from each set and
multiplies the numbers to get a score. ‘The probability that the score is negative is 0.5,
which means there is a 5% chance that the score
The table shows some of the scores. is negative.’

Card 1 (b) Alex is incorrect.

Explain why.
× −5 7 −9 11
2 −10 14 22
4 28 −36
Card 2 Alex picks one card from each set.
−6 30 −42
8 −40 56 (c) What is the probability that the score is 14?

17
REVIEW Worksheet
Practice question (2) available

Benji sells items in a shop and online.

In a survey he asked 100 people if they

• prefer to buy items in a shop or online

• are aged under 25 years, 25 to 40 years or over 40 years.

56 of the 100 people prefer to buy online.

27 of the people aged under 25 years prefer to buy online.
12 of the 33 people aged 25 to 40 years prefer to buy in a shop.

Of the people aged over 40 years, 8 prefer to buy online and 17 prefer to buy in a shop.

One person who prefers to buy in a shop is chosen at random to win a prize.

What is the probability that this person is aged under 25 years?

You must show your working.

18
REVIEW Practice question (1) – Answer
(a) Complete the table.
Alex has two sets of four cards.
He writes a number on each card. Alex says,

‘The probability that the score is negative is 0.5, which

Alex picks one card from each set and multiplies
means there
the numbers to get a score. is a 5% chance that the score is negative.’

The table shows some of the scores.

(b) Alex is incorrect.
Explain why.
Card 1
0.5 = ½ = 50%
× −5 7 −9 11
2 −10 14 –18 22 5% would be 5/100 = 0.05
4 –20 28 −36 44
Card 2 Alex picks one card from each set.
−6 30 −42 54 –66
(c) What is the probability that the score is 14?
8 −40 56 –72 88
Probability of 14 = 1/16
19
REVIEW
Practice question (2) – Answer
Benji sells items in a shop and online.
In a survey he asked 100 people if they:
• prefer to buy items in a shop or online
• are aged under 25 years, 25 to 40 years or over 40 years.

56 of the 100 people prefer to buy online.

27 of the people aged under 25 years prefer to buy online.
12 of the 33 people aged 25 to 40 years prefer to buy in a shop.
Of the people aged over 40 years, 8 prefer to buy online and 17 prefer to buy in a shop. Probability
One person who prefers to buy in a shop is chosen at random to win a prize.
=
What is the probability that this person is aged under 25 years?
You must show your working.

Under 25 25–40 Over 40 Total

Shop 15 12 17 44
Online 27 21 8 56
Total 42 33 25 100

20
Lesson review:
Probability
Level 2
Objectives
• Understand the likelihood of events using a probability
scale
• Calculate simple probability as a fraction, decimal or
percentage, including from a table
• Work out the probability of combined events including
the use of diagrams and tables, including two-way tables
• Identify and correct common misconceptions

21
Lesson 12:
Credits
Photos
Shutterstock.com: Ferveez Mohideen, Vectorfair.com
Text acknowledgements
Pearson Edexcel Functional Skills, Past Paper 3 Mathematics Level 2
(Calculator) PMAT2/C03 Question 7, Pearson Edexcel Functional Skills,
Practice Paper 3 Mathematics Level 2 (Calculator) PRACL2/C03
Question 8

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