CHAPTER 2

Forecasting Future Traffic Flows

BASIC PRINCIPLES OF
TRAFFIC DEMAND
ANALYSIS
• When transport planners aim to modify a highway
network, whether by constructing a new roadway or
implementing traffic management improvements, they
must justify their proposals by forecasting future traffic
volumes. For new roadways, knowing traffic volumes helps
estimate the standard axle loadings over time, which
informs pavement thickness and the geometric design,
including the number of lanes needed to maintain service
levels for drivers.
BASIC PRINCIPLES OF
TRAFFIC DEMAND
ANALYSIS
• Highway demand analysis seeks to understand travel behavior
and predict demand based on this understanding. The key
measurement for travel behavior is the "trip," defined as
movement from one origin to a destination, considering factors
like purpose, timing, mode of transport, distance, and route. The
economic justification for any trip is based on the concept of
utility, meaning a trip is only taken if its economic benefit
outweighs the alternative of not traveling. Utility is often tied to
the activity at the trip's destination, such as work, and must
exceed the trip's cost (both monetary and time-related). When
multiple travel options exist, individuals will choose the one that
DEMAND MODELLING
Demand modeling in highway networks requires the identification
and quantification of parameters that influence traffic activity to
ensure accurate results. A key challenge is the multitude of
simultaneous decisions that need to be made for a trip once its
purpose is established, categorized into:
• Temporal Decisions: Determining when to travel.
• Destination Decisions: Choosing a specific destination (e.g.,
workplace, shopping area).
• Modal Decisions: Selecting the mode of transport (car, bus,
train, cycling, walking).
• Spatial Decisions: Choosing the physical route based on travel
DEMAND MODELLING
To simplify this complex decision-making process, the modeling
typically involves two stages:
1.Stratification of Trips: Grouping trips by purpose and time of
day, often focusing on the morning peak hour and
distinguishing between work and non-work trips.
2.Sequential Use of Models: Employing four models in series
to estimate:
⚬ Trip Generation: Number of trips in/out of a study area.
⚬ Trip Distribution: Origins and destinations of trips.
⚬ Modal Choice: Modes of travel chosen.
⚬ Route Assignment: Routes taken for each trip.
DEMAND MODELLING
• Figure 2.1 depicts the sequence of a typical transport demand model. Initially, the
land use study and
demographic study area is divided into geographical segments or zones, allowing the average
projections travel characteristics for each zone to be established based on factors like
population. This grouping eliminates the impracticality of measuring individual

Trip generation travel preferences. The model's ability to forecast future travel demand relies on
the assumption that future travel patterns will reflect past behaviors.
Consequently, it is constructed to predict current travel behavior within the study
Trip distribution
area with reasonable accuracy. By analyzing existing travel behavior, meaningful

Modal splits regression coefficients for independent variables are determined to predict the
dependent variable. This calibration process generates an equation where
variables such as the zone's population and the average number of workers per
Traffic assignment
household are multiplied by their respective coefficients to estimate the number of
work trips originating from that zone. Once the generated values are deemed
realistic, the calibration is completed. Future trip predictions can then be made by
LAND USE MODELS

• The demand for movement, or trip-making, is closely linked to the activities

people engage in, which are reflected in the distribution and types of land uses
in an area. By analyzing the relationship between current land uses and travel
patterns, future movement estimates can be derived based on land-use
projections. Establishing these relationships is crucial for effective transport
planning.
• A land-use model predicts future development for each zone in the study area,
focusing on various land uses and the socio-economic variables essential for
trip generation, which is the first stage of the four-stage sequential modeling
process. Input from experienced land-use planners is critical to the success of
this phase. The outcome of land-use forecasting typically results in a land use
plan that outlines estimates for a specified time horizon, usually between 5
and 25 years.
LAND USE MODELS

• The numerical relationship between land use and travel is determined through
statistical and mathematical techniques, particularly regression analysis. This
analysis establishes the relationship between vehicle trips produced or
attracted to a zone and characteristics derived from both the land-use study
and demographic projections, leading directly to the first stage of trip
modeling: trip generation.
TRIP GENERATION

Trip generation is the process of

quantifying how many trips are made
to and from different locations based
on socioeconomic and land-use factors,
forming the first step in understanding
how future transportation systems will
need to handle traffic.
TRIP GENERATION

In urban transportation studies, three primary variables influence trip

generation rates from each zone:
1.Distance from the Central Business District: Closer proximity typically
increases trip rates.
2.Socio-Economic Characteristics: Factors such as per capita income and
the number of cars per household impact trip-making.
3.Intensity of Land Use: Metrics like housing units per hectare and
employees per square meter of office space determine land use density
and its effect on trips.
TRIP GENERATION
TRIP GENERATION
TRIP GENERATION
TRIP GENERATION
 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

The trip distribution explains how trips generated in one zone are linked to
trips ending in another zone. It predicts the flow of trips between different
areas within a region, creating an Origin-Destination (O-D) matrix. This
matrix shows the number of trips from each origin to each destination but
does not specify the route or mode of transport used. The focus is on
determining zone-to-zone trip exchanges, forming a foundation for further
traffic analysis.
 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

The trip distribution explains how trips generated in one zone are linked to trips ending in another
zone. It predicts the flow of trips between different areas within a region, creating an Origin-
between origins and destinations, termed an origin-destination matrix. Its layout
is illustrated in Table 2.3.
Destination (O-D) matrix.
ThereThis matrix
are several shows
types of trip
model and the Furness method.
the
distribution number
models, including theof trips from each origin to each destination
gravity

but does not specify the route or mode of transport used. The focus is on determining zone-to-zone
trip exchanges, forming a foundation for further traffic analysis.
 THE GRAVITY MODEL

The gravity model is the most popular of all the trip distribution models. It allows
the effect of differing physical planning strategies, travel costs and transportation
systems to be taken into account. Within it, existing data is analysed in order to
obtain a relationship between trip volumes and the generation and attraction of
trips along with impedance factors such as the cost of travel.
The name is derived from its similarity to the law of gravitation put forward by
Newton where trip interchange between zones is directly proportional to the
attractiveness of the zones to trips, and inversely proportional to some function of
the spatial separation of the zones.
THE GRAVITY MODEL
THE GRAVITY MODEL
 THE GRAVITY MODEL
Example 2.3 – Calculating trip distributions using the
gravity model
Taking the information from an urban transportation study, calculate the
number of trips from the central business zone (zone 1) to five other surrounding
zones (zone 2 to zone 6).
Table 2.4 details the trips produced by and attracted to each of the six
zones, together with the journey times between zone 1 and the other five
zones.
Use Equation 2.2 to calculate the trip numbers. Within the impedance
function, the generalised cost function is expressed in terms of the time taken
to travel between zone 1 and each of the other five zones and the model parameter
is set at 1.9.
THE GRAVITY MODEL
 THE GRAVITY MODEL

Zone

1 15000

2 45000 5

3 25000 10 0.047 2114 0.814 8143

12500 15 0.013 315 0.121 1212

4

5 15000 20 0.006 73 0.028 280

6 20000 25 0.003 51 0.020 195

0.002 44 0.017 170

2597 1.000 10000

Growth factor models

• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number

of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
row totals give the number of origins and the
column totals give the number of destinations.
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
Growth factor models
Growth factor models
The Furness method

• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number

• This
of tripsagain is a growth
between eachfactor method, but in thispair.
origin-destination instance
The
the basic assumption is that in the future the pattern of trip
row totalswillgive
making thesubstantially
remain number of origins
identical and at
to those the
present, totals
column with thegive
trip volumes increasingofin destinations.
the number line with the
growth of both the generating and attracting zones. It is
Assuming
still more that the basic
straightforward pattern
than of traffic
the gravity model anddoes not
quite
applicable
change, to planners
traffic situations where
may seeksubstantial
to updatechanges
the in
old
external factors such as land use are not expected.
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
The Furness method
The Furness method

• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number

of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
row totals give the number of origins and the
column totals give the number of destinations.
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
The Furness method

• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number

of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
row totals give the number of origins and the
column totals give the number of destinations.
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
The Furness method

• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number

of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
row totals give the number of origins and the
column totals give the number of destinations.
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
 The Furness method

Destination
Origin
• Existing
Thetotalcells
origins
within
Forecasted a Origin
tripgrowth
matrix indicate the number
total origins factor
Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4
of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
Z1 0 300 750 225 1275 3825 3.00

Z2
row 675totals give the2.48number of origins and the
150 0 450 75 1675
Z3 300 300 0 450 column
1050
totals
2100 give 2.00
the number of destinations.
Z4 870 1.58
150 120 600 0
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
1375
Existing total destinations 600 720 1800 750

Forecasted total
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
destinations 700 1000 5500 1800
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
Destination growth factor 1.17 1.39 3.06 2.4
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
The Furness method

• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number

of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
row totals give the number of origins and the
column totals give the number of destinations.
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
 The Furness method
Destination
Forecaste Origin
Origin
origins
• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number
Existing total
d total growth
Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 origins factor

Z1
of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
0 533 2868 690 4091 3825 0.94
Z2 215 0 1423 190 1828 row
1675 totals
0.92 give the number of origins and the
Z3 347 355 0 920 1622 2100 1.29
column totals give the number of destinations.
Z4 137 112 600 0 1458 1375 0.94
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
The Furness method

• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number

of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
row totals give the number of origins and the
column totals give the number of destinations.
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
Modal split

• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number

• Trips can be completed using different modes of
of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
travel. The proportion of trips undertaken by each of
row totals give the number of origins and the
the different modes is termed modal split. The simplest
column totals give the number of destinations.
form of modal split is between public transport and the
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
private car. While modal split can be carried out at any
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
stage in the transportation planning process, it is
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
assumed here to occur between the trip distribution
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
and assignment phases.
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
Modal split

• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number

of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
row totals give the number of origins and the
column totals give the number of destinations.
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
Modal split

• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number

of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
row totals give the number of origins and the
column totals give the number of destinations.
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
Modal split

• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number

of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
row totals give the number of origins and the
column totals give the number of destinations.
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
Modal split

• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number

of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
row totals give the number of origins and the
column totals give the number of destinations.
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
Traffic assignment

• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number

of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
• Traffic assignment constitutes the final step in the
row totals give the number of origins and the
sequential approach to traffic forecasting. The output
column totals give the number of destinations.
from this step in the process will be the assignment of
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
precise quantities of traffic flow to specific routes
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
within each of the zones.
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
Traffic assignment

• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number

of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
row totals give the number of origins and the
column totals give the number of destinations.
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
Traffic assignment

• The cells within a trip matrix indicate the number

of trips between each origin-destination pair. The
row totals give the number of origins and the
column totals give the number of destinations.
Assuming that the basic pattern of traffic does not
change, traffic planners may seek to update the old
matrix rather than compile a new one from scratch.
The most straightforward way of doing this is by
the application of a uniform growth factor where all
cells within the existing matrix are multiplied by
A A full example of Four-
stage
production Transportation Modelling
Trip Engineering is a branch of science that deals with designing and building solutions to
problems.

Process
It is essential to improving machines, electronics, structures, materials, and systems.
Scientists who use engineering to solve problems are called engineers.
Trip distribution
Trip distribution
Trip distribution
Trip distribution
Trip distribution
Trip distribution
Modal split

Two modes of travel are available to all

trip makers within the interchange
matrix: bus and private car. In order to
determine the proportion of trips
undertaken by car, the utility of each
mode must be estimated. The utility
functions for the two modes are:
Modal split
Modal split
Modal split
Trip assignment

• The final stage involves assigning all the car

trips in the matrix within Table 2.23 to the
various links within the highway network
shown in Fig. 2.3. Taking the information on the
interzonal travel times in Table 2.17 and using
the ‘all-or nothing’ method of traffic
assignment, the zone pairs contributing to the
flow along each link can be established (Table
2.24). The addition of the flows from each pair
along a given link allows its 2-way flow to be
estimated. These are shown in Fig. 2.4.
Trip assignment
Modal split

• The final stage involves assigning all the car

trips in the matrix within Table 2.23 to the
various links within the highway network
shown in Fig. 2.3. Taking the information on the
interzonal travel times in Table 2.17 and using
the ‘all-or nothing’ method of traffic
assignment, the zone pairs contributing to the
flow along each link can be established (Table
2.24). The addition of the flows from each pair
along a given link allows its 2-way flow to be
estimated. These are shown in Fig. 2.4.
Trip assignment
Modal split

• The final stage involves assigning all the car

trips in the matrix within Table 2.23 to the
various links within the highway network
shown in Fig. 2.3. Taking the information on the
interzonal travel times in Table 2.17 and using
the ‘all-or nothing’ method of traffic
assignment, the zone pairs contributing to the
flow along each link can be established (Table
2.24). The addition of the flows from each pair
along a given link allows its 2-way flow to be
estimated. These are shown in Fig. 2.4.
 ANY
QUESTIONS?